Pub Date : 2023-09-07DOI: 10.1108/jrf-10-2022-0283
Nadia Ben Abdallah, Halim Dabbou, M. Gallali
PurposeThis paper explores whether the Euro-area sovereign credit default swap market is prone to contagion effects. It investigates whether the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spread of a given country is due to a deterioration of the macroeconomic variables or some form of contagion.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, the authors use an innovative approach, i.e. spatial econometrics. Although modeling spatial dependence is an attractive challenge, its application in the field of finance remains limited.FindingsThe empirical findings show strong evidence of spatial dependence highlighting the presence of pure contagion. Furthermore, evidence of wake-up call contagion-increased sensitivity of investors to fundamentals of neighboring countries and shift contagion-increased sensitivity to common factors are well recorded.Originality/valueThis study aims to study a crucial financial issue that gained increased research interest, i.e. financial contagion. A methodological contribution is made by extending the standard spatial Durbin model (SDM) to analyze and differentiate between several forms of contagion. The results can be used to understand how shocks are spreading through countries.
{"title":"Contagion in the Euro area sovereign CDS market: a spatial approach","authors":"Nadia Ben Abdallah, Halim Dabbou, M. Gallali","doi":"10.1108/jrf-10-2022-0283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-10-2022-0283","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper explores whether the Euro-area sovereign credit default swap market is prone to contagion effects. It investigates whether the sharp increase in sovereign CDS spread of a given country is due to a deterioration of the macroeconomic variables or some form of contagion.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, the authors use an innovative approach, i.e. spatial econometrics. Although modeling spatial dependence is an attractive challenge, its application in the field of finance remains limited.FindingsThe empirical findings show strong evidence of spatial dependence highlighting the presence of pure contagion. Furthermore, evidence of wake-up call contagion-increased sensitivity of investors to fundamentals of neighboring countries and shift contagion-increased sensitivity to common factors are well recorded.Originality/valueThis study aims to study a crucial financial issue that gained increased research interest, i.e. financial contagion. A methodological contribution is made by extending the standard spatial Durbin model (SDM) to analyze and differentiate between several forms of contagion. The results can be used to understand how shocks are spreading through countries.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45742190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-21DOI: 10.1108/jrf-10-2022-0278
Lutfi Abdul Razak, M. Ibrahim, Adam Ng
Purpose Based on a sample of 1,872 firm-year observations for 573 global firms over the period 2013–2016, this study aims to provide empirical evidence on how environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance affects corporate creditworthiness as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads.Design/methodology/approach The authors use a regression model that accounts for country, industry and time-fixed effects as well as the instrumental-based Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to dynamic panel modeling.Findings This study finds that improvements in ESG performance, especially in its governance pillar, reduce credit risk. Further, the authors uncover evidence suggesting the complementarity between ESG performance and country-level sustainability. The results indicate a stronger risk-mitigating impact of ESG performance in countries with higher sustainability scores.Practical implications In terms of practical implications, the findings suggest that corporations should strengthen governance frameworks and procedures to reduce credit risk, prior to embarking on environmental and social objectives. Further, the finding that country sustainability is an important determinant of CDS spreads suggests that country-level sustainability initiatives would not only help to preserve natural capital and promote social capital but also be beneficial to businesses and financial stability.Originality/value The study adds to the literature on the effects of ESG performance on credit risk by (1) utilizing a measure of ESG performance that considers the financial materiality of ESG issues across different industries; (2) utilizing a market-based measure of credit risk and CDS spreads; (3) examining the relative importance of ESG components to credit risk, rather than just the aggregate measure; and (4) assessing the influence of country sustainability on the relationship between ESG and credit risk.
{"title":"Environment, social and governance (ESG) performance and CDS spreads: the role of country sustainability","authors":"Lutfi Abdul Razak, M. Ibrahim, Adam Ng","doi":"10.1108/jrf-10-2022-0278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-10-2022-0278","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose Based on a sample of 1,872 firm-year observations for 573 global firms over the period 2013–2016, this study aims to provide empirical evidence on how environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance affects corporate creditworthiness as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads.Design/methodology/approach The authors use a regression model that accounts for country, industry and time-fixed effects as well as the instrumental-based Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to dynamic panel modeling.Findings This study finds that improvements in ESG performance, especially in its governance pillar, reduce credit risk. Further, the authors uncover evidence suggesting the complementarity between ESG performance and country-level sustainability. The results indicate a stronger risk-mitigating impact of ESG performance in countries with higher sustainability scores.Practical implications In terms of practical implications, the findings suggest that corporations should strengthen governance frameworks and procedures to reduce credit risk, prior to embarking on environmental and social objectives. Further, the finding that country sustainability is an important determinant of CDS spreads suggests that country-level sustainability initiatives would not only help to preserve natural capital and promote social capital but also be beneficial to businesses and financial stability.Originality/value The study adds to the literature on the effects of ESG performance on credit risk by (1) utilizing a measure of ESG performance that considers the financial materiality of ESG issues across different industries; (2) utilizing a market-based measure of credit risk and CDS spreads; (3) examining the relative importance of ESG components to credit risk, rather than just the aggregate measure; and (4) assessing the influence of country sustainability on the relationship between ESG and credit risk.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43578491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-07DOI: 10.1108/jrf-01-2023-0016
Saif-Ur-Rehman, K. Hussainey, Hashim Khan
PurposeThe authors examine the spillover effects of CEO removal on the corporate financial policies of competing firms among S&P 1500 firms.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used generalized estimating equations (GEE) on a sample of S&P 1,500 firms from 2000 to 2018 to test this study's research hypotheses. Return on assets (ROA), investment policy, and payout policy are used as proxies for corporate policies.FindingsThe authors found an increase in ROA and dividend payout in the immediate aftermath. Further, this study's hypothesis does not hold for R&D expenditure and net-working capital as the authors found an insignificant change in them in the immediate aftermath. However, the authors found a significant reduction in capital expenditure, supporting this study's hypothesis in the context of investment policy. Institutional investors and product similarity moderated the spillover effect on corporate policies (ROA, dividend payout, and capital expenditure).Originality/valueThe authors address a novel aspect of CEO performance-induced removal due to poor performance, i.e., the response of other CEOs to CEO performance-induced removal. This study's findings add to the literature supporting the bright side of CEOs' response to CEO performance-induced removal in peer firms due to poor performance.
{"title":"Spillover effects of CEO performance-induced removal on competitor CEOs' firms' financial policies","authors":"Saif-Ur-Rehman, K. Hussainey, Hashim Khan","doi":"10.1108/jrf-01-2023-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-01-2023-0016","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe authors examine the spillover effects of CEO removal on the corporate financial policies of competing firms among S&P 1500 firms.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used generalized estimating equations (GEE) on a sample of S&P 1,500 firms from 2000 to 2018 to test this study's research hypotheses. Return on assets (ROA), investment policy, and payout policy are used as proxies for corporate policies.FindingsThe authors found an increase in ROA and dividend payout in the immediate aftermath. Further, this study's hypothesis does not hold for R&D expenditure and net-working capital as the authors found an insignificant change in them in the immediate aftermath. However, the authors found a significant reduction in capital expenditure, supporting this study's hypothesis in the context of investment policy. Institutional investors and product similarity moderated the spillover effect on corporate policies (ROA, dividend payout, and capital expenditure).Originality/valueThe authors address a novel aspect of CEO performance-induced removal due to poor performance, i.e., the response of other CEOs to CEO performance-induced removal. This study's findings add to the literature supporting the bright side of CEOs' response to CEO performance-induced removal in peer firms due to poor performance.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44263847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-03DOI: 10.1108/jrf-04-2023-0105
Riad Baha, Aldo Levy, Amir Hasnaoui
PurposeThis study examines the existence of a causal relationship between the capital structure at the creation of the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) and its viability after 3 years.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical strategy consists of proceeding in two stages: first, the use of the Logit model to regress the studied variable reflecting the state of an SME of being in default or not, on the variables likely to significantly explain its default risk. Second, the authors investigate the existence of a relationship between the capital structure at the time of SME creation and viability. The obtained results are analyzed to confirm the initial hypothesis.FindingsThe results obtained indicate that the Logit model performs well in terms of discriminating and classifying SMEs. These findings are consistent with previous studies and support their conclusions regarding the model's strong classification capability. Furthermore, the model demonstrates a noteworthy classification rate of 90% for capital SMEs, specifically joint-stock companies (SpA). Out of the 10 observed SMEs, 8 nonfailing SMEs were still operational three years after the observation period, resulting in a survival rate of 80%.Practical implicationsThe results allow bankers to better understand the main determinants of SME default risk and demonstrate the existence of a causal relationship between the capital structure of an SME and its viability. This study is conducted in the construction, public works, and hydraulics sector (second largest sector in Algeria after the services sector). In future works, the authors try to extend the results of this study to other sectors of activity.Originality/valueThe richness of the established Logit model is to consider both financial and non-financial and qualitative variables. Although the qualitative variables are not statistically significant in the results obtained, the authors used the “Legal form” variable to demonstrate the existence of a causal relationship between the capital structure of an SME and its viability.
{"title":"Capital structure and default risk of small and medium enterprises: evidence from Algeria","authors":"Riad Baha, Aldo Levy, Amir Hasnaoui","doi":"10.1108/jrf-04-2023-0105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-04-2023-0105","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study examines the existence of a causal relationship between the capital structure at the creation of the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) and its viability after 3 years.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical strategy consists of proceeding in two stages: first, the use of the Logit model to regress the studied variable reflecting the state of an SME of being in default or not, on the variables likely to significantly explain its default risk. Second, the authors investigate the existence of a relationship between the capital structure at the time of SME creation and viability. The obtained results are analyzed to confirm the initial hypothesis.FindingsThe results obtained indicate that the Logit model performs well in terms of discriminating and classifying SMEs. These findings are consistent with previous studies and support their conclusions regarding the model's strong classification capability. Furthermore, the model demonstrates a noteworthy classification rate of 90% for capital SMEs, specifically joint-stock companies (SpA). Out of the 10 observed SMEs, 8 nonfailing SMEs were still operational three years after the observation period, resulting in a survival rate of 80%.Practical implicationsThe results allow bankers to better understand the main determinants of SME default risk and demonstrate the existence of a causal relationship between the capital structure of an SME and its viability. This study is conducted in the construction, public works, and hydraulics sector (second largest sector in Algeria after the services sector). In future works, the authors try to extend the results of this study to other sectors of activity.Originality/valueThe richness of the established Logit model is to consider both financial and non-financial and qualitative variables. Although the qualitative variables are not statistically significant in the results obtained, the authors used the “Legal form” variable to demonstrate the existence of a causal relationship between the capital structure of an SME and its viability.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47922910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-19DOI: 10.1108/jrf-05-2022-0119
Rintu Anthony, Krishna Prasanna
PurposeThe study attempts to identify the linkages in the term structure of illiquidity and the impact of global and domestic factors on sovereign bonds in emerging Asia. The objective of the study ensues on defining the direction of illiquidity spillover across bonds of varying tenors.Design/methodology/approachThis study explores the joint dynamics of contemporary liquidity risk premia and its time-varying effect on the term structure spectrum using the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover framework.FindingsA substantial relationship was found to exist between the liquidity of bonds with closer terms to maturity. The macroeconomic environment primarily impacts the liquidity of 10-year bonds, and they spiral down to the subsequent bond liquidity, exhibiting a rippling effect. The authors further show that the direction of liquidity shock transmission is from long- to medium- and thence to short-term bonds. Among the global factors, foreign investments and S & P 500 VIX significantly affect the liquidity of 10-year bonds.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has several implications for academicians, policymakers and domestic and global investment professionals. The drivers of liquidity risk and the transmission across the term structure help investors in designing efficient portfolio diversification strategies. The results are relevant for cross-border investors in the valuation of emerging Asian sovereign bonds while deciding on asset allocations and hedging strategies. The monetary regulators strive on a continuous basis to improve the liquidity in sovereign bond markets in order to ensure efficient funding of development activities. This study finds that short-term bonds are more liquid than long-term bonds. Their auction framework with higher series of short-term bond issues helps to provide the required liquidity in the markets.Practical implicationsThe term structure of illiquidity is upward sloping, inferring a higher underlying liquidity risk of long-term bonds compared to short-term bonds. This finding suggests that a higher representation of short-term bonds in the auction framework helps to enhance the overall market liquidity.Originality/valueThis study offers insights into the debate on the shape of the term structure of illiquidity and the point of origination of liquidity shocks. Further, the direction of spillover across a wide spectrum of bonds is also demonstrated.
{"title":"Rippling effect of liquidity risk in the sovereign term structure","authors":"Rintu Anthony, Krishna Prasanna","doi":"10.1108/jrf-05-2022-0119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-05-2022-0119","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe study attempts to identify the linkages in the term structure of illiquidity and the impact of global and domestic factors on sovereign bonds in emerging Asia. The objective of the study ensues on defining the direction of illiquidity spillover across bonds of varying tenors.Design/methodology/approachThis study explores the joint dynamics of contemporary liquidity risk premia and its time-varying effect on the term structure spectrum using the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover framework.FindingsA substantial relationship was found to exist between the liquidity of bonds with closer terms to maturity. The macroeconomic environment primarily impacts the liquidity of 10-year bonds, and they spiral down to the subsequent bond liquidity, exhibiting a rippling effect. The authors further show that the direction of liquidity shock transmission is from long- to medium- and thence to short-term bonds. Among the global factors, foreign investments and S & P 500 VIX significantly affect the liquidity of 10-year bonds.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has several implications for academicians, policymakers and domestic and global investment professionals. The drivers of liquidity risk and the transmission across the term structure help investors in designing efficient portfolio diversification strategies. The results are relevant for cross-border investors in the valuation of emerging Asian sovereign bonds while deciding on asset allocations and hedging strategies. The monetary regulators strive on a continuous basis to improve the liquidity in sovereign bond markets in order to ensure efficient funding of development activities. This study finds that short-term bonds are more liquid than long-term bonds. Their auction framework with higher series of short-term bond issues helps to provide the required liquidity in the markets.Practical implicationsThe term structure of illiquidity is upward sloping, inferring a higher underlying liquidity risk of long-term bonds compared to short-term bonds. This finding suggests that a higher representation of short-term bonds in the auction framework helps to enhance the overall market liquidity.Originality/valueThis study offers insights into the debate on the shape of the term structure of illiquidity and the point of origination of liquidity shocks. Further, the direction of spillover across a wide spectrum of bonds is also demonstrated.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45130811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-14DOI: 10.1108/jrf-03-2023-0056
Aqila Rafiuddin, Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan, Rajesh Mohnot, A. Banerjee
PurposeThe aim of this research is to explore multiscale hedging strategies among cryptocurrencies, commodities, and GCC stocks. Particularly, this is done by evaluating the connectedness among these asset classes covering a period with COVID-19 implications. Using the wavelet approach, the present study aims to recommend whether there exist different time horizon-based hedging abilities across the asset classes.Design/methodology/approachThe approach used in this study is a multiscale decomposition of time series based on wavelets of daily prices of 13 asset classes. Since the wavelet analysis allows to decompose the time series into its frequency components at different time scales by a filtering process the study covered 1-day, 8-day, and 64-day time horizons to examine the hedging properties across those asset classes.FindingsThe results of this study show that hedging effectiveness differs among stock markets over time. In some cases, cryptocurrencies may keep their hedging properties across time while in others they switch from safe haven to hedge devices. In almost all cases, the three main cryptocurrencies showed diversifying properties as was observed by the multiscale correlation and hedge ratio estimations. In a competing sense, gold showed safe haven properties across time than cryptocurrencies except at an 8-day time scale where hedge ratios were low, positive and statistically different from zero that could be interpreted as a good hedge device in the medium term.Research limitations/implicationsThough this research has considered a set of thirteen asset classes, it was limited to a period in which most cryptocurrencies started trading for the first time which reduces the number of observations compared to Bitcoin prices and stable coins such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash. Also, the research was focused on the GCC stock markets which may have different results as compared to other regional markets of Asia or Latin America. A comparative analysis in future could be another area of research in future.Practical implicationsThis study has some significant policy implications. The cryptocurrency market is severely affected by demand and risk shocks to crude oil prices during the COVID-19 period. From the investor's point of view, diversification benefits can be obtained by combining cryptocurrencies along with oil-related products during episodes of financial turmoil and COVID-19 pandemic. The GCC region is constantly endeavoring to adopt more scientific tools and mechanisms of investment, and therefore, this study's results will provide some useful directions to the government, policymakers, financial institutions, and investors.Originality/valueThe current study covers a big bunch of 13 assets spanning across financial and real assets. This is based on literature gap and hence, will be a significant addition to the existing literature. Moreover, the GCC region is emerging as a global investment hub and this study will provide i
{"title":"Dynamic hedging strategies across assets and commodities – a wavelet analysis","authors":"Aqila Rafiuddin, Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan, Rajesh Mohnot, A. Banerjee","doi":"10.1108/jrf-03-2023-0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-03-2023-0056","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe aim of this research is to explore multiscale hedging strategies among cryptocurrencies, commodities, and GCC stocks. Particularly, this is done by evaluating the connectedness among these asset classes covering a period with COVID-19 implications. Using the wavelet approach, the present study aims to recommend whether there exist different time horizon-based hedging abilities across the asset classes.Design/methodology/approachThe approach used in this study is a multiscale decomposition of time series based on wavelets of daily prices of 13 asset classes. Since the wavelet analysis allows to decompose the time series into its frequency components at different time scales by a filtering process the study covered 1-day, 8-day, and 64-day time horizons to examine the hedging properties across those asset classes.FindingsThe results of this study show that hedging effectiveness differs among stock markets over time. In some cases, cryptocurrencies may keep their hedging properties across time while in others they switch from safe haven to hedge devices. In almost all cases, the three main cryptocurrencies showed diversifying properties as was observed by the multiscale correlation and hedge ratio estimations. In a competing sense, gold showed safe haven properties across time than cryptocurrencies except at an 8-day time scale where hedge ratios were low, positive and statistically different from zero that could be interpreted as a good hedge device in the medium term.Research limitations/implicationsThough this research has considered a set of thirteen asset classes, it was limited to a period in which most cryptocurrencies started trading for the first time which reduces the number of observations compared to Bitcoin prices and stable coins such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash. Also, the research was focused on the GCC stock markets which may have different results as compared to other regional markets of Asia or Latin America. A comparative analysis in future could be another area of research in future.Practical implicationsThis study has some significant policy implications. The cryptocurrency market is severely affected by demand and risk shocks to crude oil prices during the COVID-19 period. From the investor's point of view, diversification benefits can be obtained by combining cryptocurrencies along with oil-related products during episodes of financial turmoil and COVID-19 pandemic. The GCC region is constantly endeavoring to adopt more scientific tools and mechanisms of investment, and therefore, this study's results will provide some useful directions to the government, policymakers, financial institutions, and investors.Originality/valueThe current study covers a big bunch of 13 assets spanning across financial and real assets. This is based on literature gap and hence, will be a significant addition to the existing literature. Moreover, the GCC region is emerging as a global investment hub and this study will provide i","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41389969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-26DOI: 10.1108/jrf-09-2022-0245
Ayesha Afzal, S. Firdousi, Kamil Mahmood
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship that exists between financial depth and economic growth in Poland for the years 1995–2019. This paper utilizes integration and co-integration techniques to capture the long-term and short-term linkages between various determinants of financial deepening, economic growth and a few selected growth variables. Financial depth is measured using two distinct measures: the monetization ratio (i.e. the ratio of broad money in the economy to the gross domestic product (GDP)) and the domestic credit provided to private sector by banks.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a combination of Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron unit root tests, autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality tests to estimate results.FindingsThis paper finds that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between financial deepening and economic growth in the short run, but this relationship does not hold in the long run. The control variables comprising trade volume, investment, government spending and volatility in oil prices and inflation have a significant, positive relationship with economic development in the long run.Originality/valueThe findings are indicative of the need for further strengthening of the financial sector in Poland, such that the relationship between financial depth and economic growth is substantiated in the long run. This paper also finds room for more stringent regulation of the financial system and transparency in information available.
{"title":"The links between financial depth and economic variables: evidence from Poland","authors":"Ayesha Afzal, S. Firdousi, Kamil Mahmood","doi":"10.1108/jrf-09-2022-0245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-09-2022-0245","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship that exists between financial depth and economic growth in Poland for the years 1995–2019. This paper utilizes integration and co-integration techniques to capture the long-term and short-term linkages between various determinants of financial deepening, economic growth and a few selected growth variables. Financial depth is measured using two distinct measures: the monetization ratio (i.e. the ratio of broad money in the economy to the gross domestic product (GDP)) and the domestic credit provided to private sector by banks.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a combination of Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron unit root tests, autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality tests to estimate results.FindingsThis paper finds that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between financial deepening and economic growth in the short run, but this relationship does not hold in the long run. The control variables comprising trade volume, investment, government spending and volatility in oil prices and inflation have a significant, positive relationship with economic development in the long run.Originality/valueThe findings are indicative of the need for further strengthening of the financial sector in Poland, such that the relationship between financial depth and economic growth is substantiated in the long run. This paper also finds room for more stringent regulation of the financial system and transparency in information available.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45978241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-24DOI: 10.1108/jrf-06-2022-0129
Peterson Owusu Junior, N. Hung
PurposeThis paper investigates the probable differential impact of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the equities markets of G7 and Nordic countries to ascertain possible interdependencies, diversification and safe haven prospects in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic over the short-, intermediate- and long-term horizons.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply a unique methodology in a denoised frequency-domain entropy paradigm to the selected equities markets (Li et al. 2020).FindingsThe authors’ findings reinforce the operability of the entrenched market dynamics in the COVID-19 pandemic era. The authors divulge that different approaches to fighting the pandemic do not necessarily drive a change in the deep-rooted fundamentals of the equities market, specifically for the studied markets. Except for an extreme case nearing the end (start) of the short-term (intermediate-term) between Iceland and either Denmark or the US equities, there exists no potential for diversification across the studied markets, which could be ascribed to the degree of integration between these markets.Practical implicationsThe authors’ findings suggest that politicians should pay closer attention to stock market fluctuations as well as the count of confirmed COVID-19 cases in their respective countries since these could cause changes to market dynamics in the short-term through investor sentiments.Originality/valueThe authors measure the flow of information from COVID-19 to G7 and Nordic equities using the entropy methodology induced by the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN), which is a data-driven technique. The authors employ a larger sample period as a result of this, which is required to better comprehend the subtleties of investor behaviour within and among economies – G7 and Nordic geographical blocs – which largely employed different approaches to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors’ focus is on diverging time horizons, and the ICEEMDAN-based entropy would enable us to measure the amount of information conveyed to account for large tails in these nations' equity returns. Furthermore, the authors use a unique type of entropy known as Rényi entropy, which uses suitable weights to discern tailed distributions. The Shannon entropy does not account for the fact that financial assets have fat tails. In a pandemic like COVID-19, these fat tails are very strong, and they must be accounted for.
目的本文研究了新冠肺炎确诊病例对七国集团和北欧国家股市的可能差异影响，以确定新冠肺炎疫情时代在短期、中期和长期内可能存在的相互依赖性、多元化和避险前景。设计/方法论/方法论作者将去噪频域熵范式中的独特方法论应用于选定的股票市场（Li et al.2020）。发现作者的发现加强了新冠肺炎大流行时代根深蒂固的市场动态的可操作性。作者透露，抗击疫情的不同方法并不一定会改变股市根深蒂固的基本面，特别是对所研究的市场而言。除了冰岛与丹麦或美国股市之间短期（中期）接近结束（开始）的极端情况外，所研究的市场不存在多元化的潜力，这可以归因于这些市场之间的一体化程度。实际含义作者的研究结果表明，政治家们应该更加关注股市波动以及各自国家的新冠肺炎确诊病例数，因为这些可能会通过投资者情绪在短期内导致市场动态的变化。原创/价值作者使用改进的完整集成自适应噪声经验模式分解（ICEEMDAN）引入的熵方法，测量从新冠肺炎到七国集团和北欧股票的信息流，这是一种数据驱动技术。因此，作者采用了更大的样本期，这是更好地理解七国集团和北欧地理集团等经济体内部和之间投资者行为的微妙之处所必需的，这些经济体在很大程度上采用了不同的方法来抗击新冠肺炎疫情。作者的重点是不同的时间范围，基于ICEEMDAN的熵将使我们能够衡量传达的信息量，以解释这些国家股票回报中的大尾巴。此外，作者使用了一种独特的熵，称为Rényi熵，它使用合适的权重来辨别尾部分布。香农熵并没有解释金融资产有肥尾巴的事实。在新冠肺炎这样的大流行病中，这些肥尾巴非常强壮，必须加以考虑。
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{"title":"Commentary: Lessons from SVB's collapse on sustainability and sustainable finance: ensuring resilience from “unsustainability”","authors":"G. Khoo","doi":"10.1108/jrf-05-2023-245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-05-2023-245","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45419318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-19DOI: 10.1108/jrf-01-2023-0006
Abhishek Poddar, Sangita Choudhary, A. Tiwari, A. Misra
PurposeThe current study aims to analyze the linkage among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in an interconnected bank network system.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the Lerner index to estimate bank power; Granger non-causality for estimating competition, liquidity and loan price network structure; principal component for developing competition network index, liquidity network index and price network index; and panel VAR and LASSO-VAR for analyzing the dynamics of interactive network effect. Current work considers 33 Indian banks, and the duration of the study is from 2010 to 2020.FindingsNetwork structures are concentrated during the economic upcycle and dispersed during the economic downcycle. A significant interaction among bank competition, liquidity and loan price networks exists in the Indian banking system.Practical implicationsThe study meaningfully contributes to the existing literature by adding new insights concerning the interrelationship between bank competition, loan price and bank liquidity networks. While enhancing competition in the banking system, the regulator should also pay attention toward making liquidity provisions. The interactive network framework provides direction to the regulator to formulate appropriate policies for managing competition and liquidity while ensuring the solvency and stability of the banking system.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the limited literature concerning interactive relationship among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in the Indian banks.
{"title":"Interlinkages of market power, price and liquidity network in banks: evidence from an emerging economy","authors":"Abhishek Poddar, Sangita Choudhary, A. Tiwari, A. Misra","doi":"10.1108/jrf-01-2023-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jrf-01-2023-0006","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe current study aims to analyze the linkage among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in an interconnected bank network system.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the Lerner index to estimate bank power; Granger non-causality for estimating competition, liquidity and loan price network structure; principal component for developing competition network index, liquidity network index and price network index; and panel VAR and LASSO-VAR for analyzing the dynamics of interactive network effect. Current work considers 33 Indian banks, and the duration of the study is from 2010 to 2020.FindingsNetwork structures are concentrated during the economic upcycle and dispersed during the economic downcycle. A significant interaction among bank competition, liquidity and loan price networks exists in the Indian banking system.Practical implicationsThe study meaningfully contributes to the existing literature by adding new insights concerning the interrelationship between bank competition, loan price and bank liquidity networks. While enhancing competition in the banking system, the regulator should also pay attention toward making liquidity provisions. The interactive network framework provides direction to the regulator to formulate appropriate policies for managing competition and liquidity while ensuring the solvency and stability of the banking system.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the limited literature concerning interactive relationship among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in the Indian banks.","PeriodicalId":46579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47383256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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