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Integrated Risk Assessment: Case Study of Lithuanian Family Farms 综合风险评估:立陶宛家庭农场案例研究
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.23502
Sigitas Vaitkevičius, V. Aleknevičienė, L. Girdžiūtė, A. Miceikienė
This study is designed to develop the tool for risk assessment under the integrated approach. Analyzing risk several problems are encountered: the first one arises at the farm level – assessment of risk in the whole-farm context rather than in a partial context, i.e. an integrated risk assessment tool is necessary. The second problem is related to the dynamic aspect when determining how the risk changes over time and what the main drivers of these changes are. All these problems are solved in the presented research, creating an integrated risk assessment index (IRAI) and testing it in Lithuanian family farms. This index assesses four types of risk: economic, financial, production, and political. The research methodology is developed to make sure that the data collected on the IRAI behavior is as diverse as possible. A model of IRAI variation by farm size illustrating risk evolution at the Lithuanian farms and, at the same time, enabling visual diversification of the dependence of integrated risk on farm size is developed. Hierarchical cluster analysis is applied for identification of the integrated risk evolution models. Assessment of the interaction between the IRAIand output and input using nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis testis used to find out whether the type of integrated risk is based on differential logic. IRAI was tested using official statistical data of 1300 family farms collected in 2004–2013 for institutional purposes. The testing revealed that the designed IRAI allows identifying types of farms by their risk evolvement profiles and the key risk (s) acting on the farm in the historical period. Four meaningful clusters representing the changing pattern of the risk are identified during the testing of IRAI: increasing risk farms; reducing risk farms; relatively constant risk farms; varying risk farms. IRAI can be applied both for macro analysis (at a national, EU or other levels) and microanalysis (at the level of a single farm).
本研究旨在开发综合方法下的风险评估工具。风险分析遇到了几个问题:第一个问题出现在农场层面-在整个农场环境中评估风险,而不是在局部环境中评估风险,即综合风险评估工具是必要的。第二个问题与确定风险如何随时间变化以及这些变化的主要驱动因素是什么的动态方面有关。本研究解决了所有这些问题,创建了综合风险评估指数(IRAI)并在立陶宛家庭农场进行了测试。该指数评估了四种风险:经济、金融、生产和政治。制定研究方法是为了确保收集到的有关IRAI行为的数据尽可能多样化。一个IRAI随农场规模变化的模型说明了立陶宛农场的风险演变,同时,使综合风险对农场规模的依赖能够可视化多样化。采用层次聚类分析方法对综合风险演化模型进行识别。使用非参数Kruskal-Wallis测试来评估irai与产出和投入之间的相互作用,以确定综合风险的类型是否基于微分逻辑。IRAI使用2004-2013年为机构目的收集的1300个家庭农场的官方统计数据进行测试。测试表明,设计的IRAI可以根据农场的风险演变概况和历史时期对农场起作用的关键风险来识别农场类型。在IRAI测试期间,确定了代表风险变化模式的四个有意义的集群:风险农场增加;减少风险农场;相对稳定的风险场;不同的风险农场。IRAI既可以用于宏观分析(在国家、欧盟或其他层面),也可以用于微观分析(在单个农场层面)。
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引用次数: 1
Project Delivery System Decision Making using Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS 基于毕达哥拉斯模糊TOPSIS的项目交付系统决策
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/J01.EE.30.4.22041
Limin Su, Huimin Li, Yongchao Cao, Lelin Lv
The selection of project delivery systems is a complex decision-making process, which is also a critical task for owners. The complexity problem arises from the uncertainty of decision making environment and construction project itself. Pythagorean fuzzy sets (PFS), as an extension from intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) to deal with uncertainty information, has attracted more scholars’ attention in the decision making area. In this paper, we develop three similarity measures (i.e., 1-type PFSs similarity measure, 2-type PFSs weighted similarity measure, 3-type PFSs weighted similarity measure), and investigate their properties. Then an improved TOPSIS decision making framework is further established with PFSs information, in which the proposed similarity measures are employed to measure the similarity degree between each alternative and negative ideal solution and positive ideal solution. Finally, a case study of the selection of project delivery systems is presented to proof the performance of the proposed decision making method.
项目交付系统的选择是一个复杂的决策过程,也是业主的一项关键任务。复杂性问题主要来源于决策环境和建设项目本身的不确定性。毕达哥拉斯模糊集作为直觉模糊集处理不确定性信息的扩展,在决策领域受到了越来越多学者的关注。本文提出了3种相似测度(1型pfs相似测度、2型pfs加权相似测度、3型pfs加权相似测度),并研究了它们的性质。然后利用pfs信息进一步构建改进的TOPSIS决策框架,利用所提出的相似测度测度各备选方案与负理想解和正理想解之间的相似度。最后,以项目交付系统选择为例,验证了所提决策方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 8
The effect of worker remittances on economic growth: An ARDL approach 工人汇款对经济增长的影响:一种ARDL方法
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.21830
Muhammad Kamran Khan, Jian-zhou Teng, Muhammad Imran Khan
Worker remittances are the main source of financial flow to any economy.  This study intended to scrutinize the effect of remittance inflow on Pakistan’s economy over the period 1976- 2016 by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique; because this method has been recently developed and has different advantages as compared to time series methods. ARDL method was applied to scrutinize the long run and the short run effect of worker remittances on Pakistan’s economy. This study concluded that Pakistan’s economy is positively affected by remittance inflow, foreign direct investment and the gross domestic saving in the long run, while Pakistan’s economy negatively affected by inflation and consumption in the long run. Remittances received from immigrant support economic growth in Pakistan because remittances inflow is mostly utilized for investment purpose. To further improve the economic development of Pakistan’s economy, it is suggested that policy maker in Pakistan encourage and motivate migrants to send remittances through proper channels to Pakistan, so that these inflows of remittances be used in such profitable investments that help to improve economic growth.
工人汇款是任何经济体资金流动的主要来源。本研究旨在通过采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)技术来审视1976- 2016年期间汇款流入对巴基斯坦经济的影响;因为这种方法是最近才发展起来的,与时间序列方法相比具有不同的优点。应用ARDL方法仔细研究了工人汇款对巴基斯坦经济的长期和短期影响。本研究的结论是,从长期来看,汇款流入、外国直接投资和国内储蓄总额对巴基斯坦经济有积极影响,而从长期来看,通胀和消费对巴基斯坦经济有消极影响。来自移民的汇款支持了巴基斯坦的经济增长,因为流入的汇款主要用于投资目的。为了进一步改善巴基斯坦经济的经济发展,建议巴基斯坦的政策制定者鼓励和激励移民通过适当的渠道向巴基斯坦汇款,以便这些汇款流入用于有助于改善经济增长的有利可图的投资。
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引用次数: 10
Investment Environment Problems Analysis and Evaluation: An Ex Post Empirical Analysis and Performance Implications 投资环境问题分析与评价:事后实证分析与绩效启示
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.20838
Vladimir Djuro Djakovic, Goran B. Andjelic, Aleksandar D. Petkovic
The research subject is the investment environment problems analysis and evaluation of the developing countries, namely, the Republic of Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Hungary. The analysis was carried out by testing and implementation of the Value-at-Risk models, i.e, the historical simulation (HS VaR), the delta-normal VaR (D VaR) and the extreme value theory model (EVT), with the confidence level of 95% for 100, 200 and 300 days, in the period from 2012 to 2016. The basic hypothesis of the research is that there is a relation between the successful application of the historical simulation (HS VaR), the delta-normal VaR (D VaR) and the extreme value theory model (EVT) and the conditions and opportunities of the investment environment of the developing countries. The research results provide a concrete knowledge of the conditions and circumstances of the investment environment in the observed markets, with a simultaneous performance assessment of the tested VaR models.
研究课题是发展中国家,即塞尔维亚共和国、克罗地亚、斯洛文尼亚和匈牙利的投资环境问题分析与评价。分析采用2012 - 2016年期间的历史模拟(HS VaR)、δ -正态VaR (D VaR)和极值理论模型(EVT),置信度为95%,分别为100天、200天和300天。本研究的基本假设是,历史模拟(HS VaR)、δ -正态VaR (D VaR)和极值理论模型(EVT)的成功应用与发展中国家投资环境的条件和机会之间存在一定的关系。研究结果提供了对所观察市场中投资环境的条件和环境的具体认识,同时对所测试的VaR模型进行了绩效评估。
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引用次数: 0
Development of performance measurement system in the context of Industry 4: a case study 工业4.0背景下绩效评估体系的发展:一个案例研究
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.21728
L. Klovienė, Indre Uosyte
To manage and cope with significant, radical changes of business processes and activities in the context of Industry 4, it is necessary for organizations to have a rapid reactive ability. This requirement may be fulfilled by performance measurement system (PMS) which should be aligned with and could reflect the current digitalization and innovative trends. According to this PMS should be developed due to changes in technology, business environment and organizational processes. But the main uncertainty here is to understand what are the main changes and development trends of PMS needed in the context of Industry 4?To solve this problem, the research presents how PMS can be developed facing industrial revolution using qualitative research method - case study with multiple sources of evidence from semi-structured interviews and documents analysis. According to research results a comprehensive framework for changes in PMS due to the alterations of Industry 4 was developed. Case study results show that technological developments and digitalization processes lead to a more intensive use of predictive methods in planning processes as well as faster control and decision making processes. The main contribution of this paper is to highlight the scientific literature of performance measurement by providing a comprehensive view of developments in PMS in the context of Industry 4. From a practical perspective, the study provides specific practical insights in order to support the reaction processes within organization.
为了管理和应对工业4环境中业务流程和活动的重大、根本性变化,组织有必要具有快速反应能力。这一要求可以通过绩效测量系统(PMS)来实现,该系统应该与当前的数字化和创新趋势保持一致并能反映出来。根据此PMS应开发由于技术,业务环境和组织流程的变化。但这里主要的不确定性是了解PMS在工业4.0背景下需要的主要变化和发展趋势是什么?为了解决这一问题,本研究采用定性研究方法——半结构化访谈和文献分析的多种证据来源的案例研究,提出了如何在工业革命的背景下开发PMS。根据研究结果,建立了工业4变更导致的PMS变化的综合框架。案例研究结果表明,技术发展和数字化进程导致在规划过程中更多地使用预测方法,以及更快的控制和决策过程。本文的主要贡献是通过提供工业4背景下PMS发展的全面观点来突出绩效测量的科学文献。从实践的角度来看,该研究提供了具体的实践见解,以支持组织内的反应过程。
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引用次数: 14
Sustainability Information in Annual Reports of Companies Domiciled in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic 在捷克共和国和斯洛伐克共和国注册的公司年报中的可持续发展信息
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.22481
Petr Petera, Jaroslav Wagner, R. Pakšiová, Aneta Křehnáčová
The importance of corporate sustainability reporting continues to grow. This growth is rooted in numerous contingent factors and scientific questions regarding the key contingent variables arise. Knowledge related to these issues is important both for academic and practical purposes. Although sustainability reporting and sustainability management are not identical activities, they are strongly interconnected and communication, per se, is of great importance for the sustainability of companies. In the Czech Republic, and especially in the Slovak Republic, there is a lack of up-to-date empirical research into the extent of sustainability reporting and our article addresses this research gap. The primary concern is the investigation of the association between the amount and structure of disclosure and its determinants. Scientific methods of content analysis, ratio analysis, and statistical data analysis including regression analysis are applied. Few companies report on environmental and social issues in a comprehensive way. The structure and amount of reporting is similar in the countries analyzed. Company size positively impacts the relative share of both environmental and social disclosure in the total disclosure. Company affiliation to a high-profile industry positively impacts the relative share of environmental disclosure in the total disclosure, as well as the total amount of environmental disclosure. Total amount of disclosure positively impacts the absolute amount of economic, environmental and social disclosure. Reporting, in accordance with the IFRS, positively impacts the relative share of social disclosure in the total disclosure.
企业可持续发展报告的重要性持续增长。这种增长植根于许多偶然因素和有关关键偶然变量的科学问题。与这些问题相关的知识对于学术和实践目的都很重要。虽然可持续发展报告和可持续发展管理不是完全相同的活动,但它们之间有着密切的联系,沟通本身对公司的可持续发展非常重要。在捷克共和国,特别是在斯洛伐克共和国,缺乏对可持续发展报告程度的最新实证研究,我们的文章解决了这一研究差距。主要关注的是调查披露的数量和结构及其决定因素之间的关系。运用科学的方法进行内容分析、比率分析和统计数据分析,包括回归分析。很少有公司对环境和社会问题进行全面的报告。在分析的国家中,报告的结构和数量相似。公司规模对环境披露和社会披露在总披露中所占的相对份额均有正向影响。公司所属行业高知名度对环境信息披露占总披露的相对份额以及环境信息披露总额产生正向影响。信息披露总量正影响着经济、环境和社会信息披露的绝对量。根据国际财务报告准则,报告对社会披露在总披露中的相对份额产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 18
Acceptance of Intelligent Ticketing Systems in Developing Countries 发展中国家对智能票务系统的接受程度
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.20941
Muhammad Noman Shafique, J. Raudeliūnienė, V. Davidavičienė, J. Pěnčík
Information communication technologies bring the revolution into all business sectors, and transportation sector is not an exception. Ticketing system has changed from traditional to intelligent, which provides information and service to the consumer. In developed countries such systems are implemented and operate successfully, while in the developing countries electronic ticketing and other similar innovative solutions face specific challenges. These challenges are related to information era and changes in consumer behaviour, caused by the development of information and communication technologies. In these new conditions the motives of consumers to choose electronic ticketing has become an extremely important factor of success. Lack of integrity of consumer behaviour and technology acceptance (electronic ticketing in particular) was identified in previous scientific research, especially taking into consideration recent conditions of developing countries. The aim of this article is to evaluate the consumers’ behaviour and acceptance of intelligent systems, such as electronic ticketing, in order to identify factors, influencing and encouraging the customers to use electronic ticketing systems. In this study extended technology acceptance model with trust element was used to measure the consumer behaviour. The sample for this research has been taken from China and Pakistan populations and consists of 432 participants from both countries.
信息通信技术给各行各业带来了革命,交通运输业也不例外。票务系统由传统票务系统向智能化票务系统转变,为消费者提供信息和服务。在发达国家,这种系统得到了成功的实施和运作,而在发展中国家,电子票务和其他类似的创新解决办法面临着具体的挑战。这些挑战与信息时代和消费者行为的变化有关,这些变化是由信息和通信技术的发展引起的。在这些新的条件下,消费者选择电子票务的动机已经成为成功的一个极其重要的因素。在以前的科学研究中,特别是考虑到发展中国家最近的情况,发现消费者行为和技术接受(特别是电子票务)缺乏完整性。本文的目的是评估消费者对智能系统(如电子票务)的行为和接受程度,以确定影响和鼓励客户使用电子票务系统的因素。本研究采用扩展的技术接受模型与信任元素来衡量消费者行为。本研究的样本取自中国和巴基斯坦人口,由来自两国的432名参与者组成。
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引用次数: 3
Market-neutral trading with fuzzy inference, a new method for the pairs trading strategy 基于模糊推理的市场中性交易,是一种新的货币对交易策略
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.14350
Mehmet Bayram, M. Akat
Financial pricing and prediction of stock markets is a specific and relatively narrow field, which have been mainly explored by mathematicians, economists and financial engineers. Prediction with the purpose of making profits in a martingale domain is a hard task. Pairs trading, a market neutral arbitrage strategy, attempts to resolve the drawback of unpredictability and yield market independent returns using relative pricing idea. If two securities have similar characteristics, so should their prices. Deviation from the acceptable similarity range in prices is considered an anomaly, and whenever noticed, trading is executed assuming the anomaly will correct itself.This work proposes a fuzzy inference model for the market-neutral pairs trading strategy. Fuzzy logic lets mimicking human decision-making in a complex trading environment and taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities that the crisp models may miss to acquire for the trade decision-making. Spread between two co-integrated stocks and volatility of the spread is used as decision-making inputs. Spread is a measure of the distance between two stocks and volatility is an indicator of how soon the spread would disappear. We conclude that fuzzy engine contributes to the profitability and efficiency of pairs trading type of strategies.
股票市场的金融定价与预测是一个特定的、相对狭窄的领域,主要由数学家、经济学家和金融工程师进行探索。在鞅域以盈利为目的的预测是一项艰巨的任务。配对交易是一种市场中性套利策略,它试图利用相对定价思想来解决不可预测性的缺点,并获得与市场无关的收益。如果两种证券具有相似的特征,那么它们的价格也应该相似。价格偏离可接受的相似范围被认为是一种异常,只要注意到,交易就会假设异常会自我纠正。本文提出了市场中性货币对交易策略的模糊推理模型。模糊逻辑可以在复杂的交易环境中模仿人类的决策,利用清晰模型可能错过的套利机会进行交易决策。用两个协整股票之间的价差和价差的波动率作为决策输入。价差是衡量两只股票之间距离的指标,而波动性是价差消失的速度的指标。结果表明,模糊引擎对组合交易型策略的盈利能力和效率都有贡献。
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引用次数: 2
Information about article authors 文章作者信息
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-02 DOI: 10.5755/J01.EE.31.1.25382
Simanavičienė Aušra
Information about Article Authors
文章作者信息
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引用次数: 0
Requirements for the preparation of an article 准备物品的要求
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-07-02 DOI: 10.5755/J01.EE.30.3.23754
Simanavičienė Aušra
{"title":"Requirements for the preparation of an article","authors":"Simanavičienė Aušra","doi":"10.5755/J01.EE.30.3.23754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5755/J01.EE.30.3.23754","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46830,"journal":{"name":"Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2019-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84089382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics
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