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Journal of Behavioral Finance最新文献

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Momentum, Information, and Herding 动量、信息和羊群
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1971983
Zhilu Lin, Wentao Wu, Haoran Zhang
Abstract This study investigates the potential explanations to the momentum effect on the equity market. We primarily discuss the underreaction hypothesis, the overreaction hypothesis, and the impact of herding behavior. We find that the momentum effect disappeared after decimalization in all size deciles, which does not support the underreaction hypothesis. We also find that momentum profits do not exist in any intangible assets or R&D expenses deciles, which is not consistent with the continuous overreaction hypothesis. We further investigate the impact of herding behavior on the momentum effect. Using a new firm-level herding measurement, we find that investors require higher returns in high herding stocks and they require even higher returns in high herding stocks among previous losers, indicating that investors herd against the previous losers while they herd toward the winners.
摘要本研究探讨动量效应对股票市场的潜在解释。我们主要讨论反应不足假说、反应过度假说以及羊群行为的影响。我们发现,在所有尺寸的十分位数中,动量效应在小数化后消失,这不支持反应不足假设。我们还发现,在任何无形资产和研发费用十分位数中都不存在动量利润,这与持续过度反应假设不一致。我们进一步研究了羊群行为对动量效应的影响。利用一种新的企业层面的羊群效应度量方法,我们发现投资者对高羊群效应股票的回报要求更高,而对先前亏损的高羊群效应股票的回报要求更高,这表明投资者对先前亏损的股票趋同,而对先前盈利的股票趋同。
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引用次数: 0
How Do Limit Orders Affect the Disposition Effect on Highly Liquid Markets – Experimental Finance Evidence 在高流动性市场上,限价单如何影响处置效应——实验性金融证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1973006
Hana Dvořáčková, T. Tichý, Marek Jochec
Abstract We examine the effect of selected limit order tools (stop loss, take profit, and trailing stop) on the disposition effect, a well-known behavioral bias, by using experimental trading data. Our presumption is that the limit orders should significantly eliminate this behavioral bias, which may lead to higher losses than feasible for a trader. The traders of our data sample can be considered as a sample of beginners or less informed traders. Based on our analysis it is possible to conclude that limit orders have a significant impact on the disposition effect. Traders using these tools were able not only to avoid this behavioral bias, but even reverse it, which is, as far as we know, a unique result within the existing literature. Moreover, we found out that the impact of eliminating of the disposition effect by limit orders use is positive, as it may lead to significant loss reduction. On the other hand, the effect on profits is insignificant.
摘要本文通过实验交易数据,考察了所选择的限价单工具(止损、止盈和跟踪止损)对处置效应(一种众所周知的行为偏差)的影响。我们的假设是,限价单应该显著消除这种行为偏差,这可能导致更高的损失比可行的交易者。我们的数据样本的交易者可以被认为是初学者或不太知情的交易者的样本。根据我们的分析,可以得出结论,限价单对处置效应有显著影响。使用这些工具的交易者不仅能够避免这种行为偏差,甚至能够逆转它,据我们所知,这是现有文献中唯一的结果。此外,我们发现使用限价单消除处置效应的影响是积极的,因为它可能导致显着的损失减少。另一方面,对利润的影响是微不足道的。
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引用次数: 1
Does Sentiment Impact Cryptocurrency? 市场情绪会影响加密货币吗?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-08-04 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1950723
Anamika, Madhumita Chakraborty, S. Subramaniam
Abstract This study examines the impact of investor sentiment on cryptocurrency returns. We use a direct survey-based measure that captures the investors’ sentiment on Bitcoins. This direct measure of Bitcoin investor sentiment is obtained from the Sentix database. The results of the study found that the Bitcoin prices experience appreciation when investors are optimistic about Bitcoin. Bitcoin sentiment has significant power in predicting the Bitcoin prices after controlling for the relevant factors. There is also evidence that the sentiment of the dominant cryptocurrency, i.e., Bitcoin, influences the price of other cryptocurrencies. Further, we extend our analysis by investigating the impact of equity market sentiment on cryptocurrency returns. We proxy equity market sentiment using two measures viz: Baker-Wurgler sentiment Index and the VIX Index. When the equity market investors’ sentiment is bearish, cryptocurrency prices rise, indicating that cryptocurrency can act as an alternative avenue for investment. Our results remain unaffected after controlling for potential factors that could impact cryptocurrency prices.
本研究考察了投资者情绪对加密货币回报的影响。我们使用了一种基于直接调查的方法来捕捉投资者对比特币的情绪。比特币投资者情绪的直接衡量指标来自Sentix数据库。研究结果发现,当投资者对比特币持乐观态度时,比特币的价格会出现升值。在控制了相关因素后,比特币情绪对比特币价格具有显著的预测力。还有证据表明,占主导地位的加密货币(即比特币)的情绪会影响其他加密货币的价格。此外,我们通过调查股票市场情绪对加密货币回报的影响来扩展我们的分析。我们用两个指标来代表股市情绪:Baker-Wurgler情绪指数和VIX指数。当股市投资者情绪悲观时,加密货币价格上涨,表明加密货币可以作为另一种投资途径。在控制了可能影响加密货币价格的潜在因素后,我们的结果不受影响。
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引用次数: 39
The Role of Investor Sentiment and Valuation Uncertainty in the Changes around Analyst Recommendations: Evidence from U.S. Firms 投资者情绪和估值不确定性在分析师建议变化中的作用:来自美国公司的证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1948853
Ahmed Bouteska, Mehdi Mili
Abstract The authors investigate the empirical relation among investor sentiment, valuation uncertainty, and announcements of changes in analyst recommendation decisions among U.S. firms. Recent behavioral finance evidence shows market sentiment to have predictive content that affects the classical relationship between analyst recommendations and stock return dynamics. Contrary to this evidence, the authors find that degree of valuation uncertainty is associated to the impact of investor sentiment when examining a likelihood of consensus recommendation upgrade or downgrade. While not totally eliminating the significant investor sentiment effect under high valuation uncertainty, the investor sentiment does not powerfully explain the stock market reactions to analyst recommendation changes under low valuation uncertainty. Furthermore, the authors show that analyst recommendations provide significant buy or sell signals if valuation uncertainty is great, referring to the market being highly competitive. However, in less competitive markets, analyst reports become less informative. Overall, the authors demonstrate that magnitude of valuation uncertainty is an important complement to investor sentiment for further understanding analyst recommendations.
摘要本文研究了美国公司投资者情绪、估值不确定性和分析师推荐决策变更公告之间的实证关系。最近的行为金融学证据表明,市场情绪具有预测内容,影响分析师建议和股票回报动态之间的经典关系。与此证据相反,作者发现,在检查共识建议升级或降级的可能性时,估值不确定性的程度与投资者情绪的影响有关。虽然投资者情绪并没有完全消除高估值不确定性下的显著投资者情绪效应,但投资者情绪并不能有力地解释低估值不确定性下股市对分析师推荐变化的反应。此外,作者表明,如果估值不确定性很大,指的是市场竞争激烈,分析师的建议提供了重要的买入或卖出信号。然而,在竞争不那么激烈的市场中,分析师报告的信息量会减少。总体而言,作者证明了估值不确定性的大小是进一步理解分析师建议的投资者情绪的重要补充。
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引用次数: 3
Are All the Sentiment Measures the Same? 所有的情绪指标都一样吗?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-07-24 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1949718
Qiang Bu
Abstract The author examines whether the direct and indirect sentiment measures are distinct from each other. The author finds that the 2 types of sentiment measures have a relatively low correlation between them. The direct sentiment measures have significant explanatory power on contemporaneous stock returns, whereas the indirect sentiment measures have a lagging effect in such explanatory power. If both sentiment measures are used in a model, one can observe a strong synergistic effect in adjusted R 2. One can find that the indirect measures’ predictive power on future stock return is remarkably higher than that of the direct measures. Also, the indirect measures are mainly driven by short-term interest rate, whereas stock returns most drive the direct measures.
摘要本文探讨了直接情感测量和间接情感测量是否存在差异。笔者发现,两类情绪测度之间的相关性相对较低。直接情绪测度对同期股票收益的解释能力显著,而间接情绪测度对同期股票收益的解释能力存在滞后效应。如果在一个模型中使用两种情绪测量,可以观察到调整后的r2具有很强的协同效应。可以发现,间接测度对股票未来收益的预测能力显著高于直接测度。此外,间接指标主要由短期利率驱动,而股票收益主要由直接指标驱动。
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引用次数: 2
Independence of Intrinsic Valuations and Stock Recommendations – Experimental Evidence from Equity Research Analysts and Investors 内在估值和股票推荐的独立性——来自股票研究分析师和投资者的实验证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-07-15 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1949715
Ran Barniv, Wei Li, Timothy C. Miller
Abstract Motivated by the mixed findings in prior archival studies, this study conducts three experiments to examine the relationships among analysts’ intrinsic valuation estimates (V), stock recommendations (REC) and stock returns. Experiment 1, built on implications from prospect theory, provides direct observations on analysts’ asymmetric use of the valuation to price (V/P) ratio in making their REC. Experiments 2 and 3 indicate differences and similarities between professional and nonprofessional investors in using analysts’ V and REC in making their investment-related judgments. Our results provide implications for both research and practice.
摘要基于以往文献研究的混杂结果,本研究通过三个实验,考察了分析师的内在估值估计(V)、股票推荐(REC)与股票收益之间的关系。实验1建立在前景理论的基础上,直接观察到分析师在做出投资相关判断时不对称地使用估值与价格(V/P)比率。实验2和3表明,专业投资者和非专业投资者在使用分析师的V和REC做出投资相关判断时存在异同。我们的研究结果为研究和实践提供了启示。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Firm-Initiated Tweets on Stock Return and Trading Volume 公司发起的推文对股票收益和交易量的影响
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1949717
Aditya Ganesh, S. Iyer
ABSTRACT Recent SEC guidelines enabled many Fortune 500 companies to actively adopt social media, such as Twitter, to disseminate information. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between tweets by corporations and stock returns. Our study used over 1.2 million corporate tweets made by thirty companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between April 2013 and July 2020. The shocks from the frequency of corporate tweets can positively impact stock returns and trading volume. We, therefore, examine causality and impulse response between frequency of corporate tweets, stock returns, and changes in trading volume using a vector autoregression model. Our findings indicate that 43 percent of stocks exhibit Granger causality between firm-initiated tweets and changes in trading volume. We find evidence consistent with the attention-induced price pressure hypothesis proposed by Barber and Odean. We observe that a shock in corporate tweeting behavior translates into a positive effect on changes in trading volume and returns in 73 percent and 60 percent of stocks, respectively. These results are significant for developing appropriate social media communication strategies. The findings are also valuable for investors and traders who can deploy forecasting models utilizing corporate tweets to earn superior returns.
美国证券交易委员会最近的指导方针使许多财富500强公司积极采用社交媒体,如Twitter,传播信息。本文分析了公司推文与股票收益之间的关系。我们的研究使用了道琼斯工业平均指数30家公司在2013年4月至2020年7月期间发布的120多万条企业推文。企业推特频率的冲击对股票收益和交易量有正向影响。因此,我们使用向量自回归模型来检验企业推文频率、股票收益和交易量变化之间的因果关系和脉冲响应。我们的研究结果表明,43%的股票在公司发起的推文与交易量变化之间表现出格兰杰因果关系。我们发现了与Barber和Odean提出的注意力诱导价格压力假说相一致的证据。我们观察到,企业推特行为的冲击分别对73%和60%的股票的交易量和回报变化产生了积极影响。这些结果对于制定适当的社交媒体传播策略具有重要意义。这些发现对投资者和交易员也很有价值,他们可以利用企业推文部署预测模型,以获得更高的回报。
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引用次数: 4
Founder-Led Firms and Operational Litigation Risk 创始人领导的公司和运营诉讼风险
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1949716
Mohammad Hashemi Joo, Edward R. Lawrence, Yuka Nishikawa
Abstract This study investigates the relationship between founder-led firms and non-securities (operational) litigation risk. We postulate lower operational litigation risk for founder-led firms than for nonfounder-led firms based on founder-CEOs’ limited agency conflicts and stronger emotional attachment to the firms they establish. Our empirical results suggest that having a founder as CEO mitigates the risk of being involved in operational lawsuits that could result in substantial financial losses and long-lasting negative consequences.
摘要本研究探讨创始人主导公司与非证券(经营性)诉讼风险之间的关系。我们假设创始人领导的公司的运营诉讼风险低于非创始人领导的公司,这是基于创始人-首席执行官有限的代理冲突和对他们所建立的公司更强的情感依恋。我们的实证结果表明,创始人担任首席执行官可以降低卷入运营诉讼的风险,而运营诉讼可能导致重大的财务损失和长期的负面后果。
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引用次数: 0
Investor Confidence and Forecastability of US Stock Market Realized Volatility: Evidence from Machine Learning 美国股市已实现波动的投资者信心和可预测性:来自机器学习的证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-07-10 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1949719
Rangan Gupta, Jacobus Nel, Christian Pierdzioch
Abstract Using a machine-learning technique known as random forests, we analyze the role of investor confidence in forecasting monthly aggregate realized stock-market volatility of the United States (US), over and above a wide-array of macroeconomic and financial variables. We estimate random forests on data for a period from 2001 to 2020, and study horizons up to one year by computing forecasts for recursive and a rolling estimation window. We find that investor confidence, and especially investor confidence uncertainty has out-of-sample predictive value for overall realized volatility, as well as its “good” and “bad” variants. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.
使用一种被称为随机森林的机器学习技术,我们分析了投资者信心在预测美国(US)的月度总已实现股票市场波动中的作用,以及一系列宏观经济和金融变量。我们对2001年至2020年期间的数据进行了随机森林估计,并通过计算递归预测和滚动估计窗口来研究长达一年的范围。我们发现投资者信心,特别是投资者信心不确定性对总体已实现波动率及其“好”和“坏”变体具有样本外预测值。我们的研究结果对投资者和政策制定者具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 12
Employing Google Trends and Deep Learning in Forecasting Financial Market Turbulence 运用谷歌趋势和深度学习预测金融市场动荡
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1913160
Anastasios Petropoulos, Vasileios G. Siakoulis, Evangelos Stavroulakis, Panagiotis Lazaris, Nikolaos E. Vlachogiannakis
Abstract In this paper we apply text mining methodologies on a set of 10,000 Central Bank speeches to construct a financial dictionary, based on which we use Google Trends indices to measure people’s interest in financial news. Particularly, we investigate the relationship between these indices and financial market turbulence leveraging on Deep Learning techniques, which are benchmarked against a variety of Machine Learning algorithms and traditional statistical techniques. Our main finding is that Google queries convey information able to predict future market turbulence in a short time period (one month), and that Deep Learning algorithms clearly outperform over benchmark techniques. Google Trends can provide useful input in the creation of crisis Early Warning Systems, as social data are more responsive compared to official financial indicators, which are usually available with a lag of several weeks or months. Thus, such an Early Warning System (EWS) that is continuously updated with current social data can be a valuable tool for policymakers, as it can immediately identify signs of whether a crisis is imminent or not.
摘要本文采用文本挖掘方法对10000篇中央银行演讲构建金融词典,并在此基础上使用谷歌趋势指数来衡量人们对金融新闻的兴趣。特别是,我们利用深度学习技术研究了这些指数与金融市场动荡之间的关系,这些技术是针对各种机器学习算法和传统统计技术进行基准测试的。我们的主要发现是谷歌查询传达了能够在短时间内(一个月)预测未来市场动荡的信息,并且深度学习算法明显优于基准技术。谷歌趋势可以为建立危机预警系统提供有用的投入,因为与通常滞后数周或数月的官方财务指标相比,社会数据更具响应性。因此,这种不断更新当前社会数据的早期预警系统(EWS)可以成为政策制定者的宝贵工具,因为它可以立即识别危机是否迫在眉睫的迹象。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
Journal of Behavioral Finance
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