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Herding in Imperial Russia: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange (1865–1914) 俄国帝国的畜牧业:来自圣彼得堡证券交易所的证据(1865-1914)
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1986715
Konstantinos Gavriilidis, Vasileios Kallinterakis
We present seminal empirical evidence on market-wide herding from historical markets for the St. Petersburg stock exchange between 1865 and 1914. Our findings indicate the presence of herding in Im...
我们提出了开创性的经验证据,从历史市场的圣彼得堡证券交易所在1865年和1914年之间的市场范围放牧。我们的研究结果表明,在中国存在群居现象。
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引用次数: 2
Sentiment Regimes and Reaction of Stock Markets to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries 情绪机制和股市对常规和非常规货币政策的反应:来自经合组织国家的证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1983576
Oğuzhan Çepni, Rangan Gupta, Qiang Ji
Abstract In this paper, we investigate how conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks affect the stock market of eight advanced economies, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Spain, the U.K., and the U.S., conditional on the state of sentiment. In this regard, we use a panel vector auto-regression (VAR) with monthly data (on output, prices, equity prices, metrics of monetary policies, and consumer and business sentiments) over the period of January 2007 till July 2020, with the monetary policy shock identified through the use of both zero and sign restrictions. We find robust evidence that, compared to the low investor sentiment regime, the reaction of stock prices to expansionary monetary policy shocks is stronger in the state associated with relatively higher optimism, both for the overall panel and the individual countries (with some degree of heterogeneity). Our findings have important implications for academicians, investors, and policymakers.
摘要本文研究了传统和非常规货币政策冲击对加拿大、法国、德国、日本、意大利、西班牙、英国和美国八个发达经济体股票市场的影响。在这方面,我们对2007年1月至2020年7月期间的月度数据(产量、价格、股票价格、货币政策指标以及消费者和企业情绪)使用面板向量自回归(VAR),通过使用零和符号限制来识别货币政策冲击。我们发现强有力的证据表明,与低投资者情绪机制相比,在整体面板和个别国家(具有一定程度的异质性)相对较高的乐观情绪相关的状态下,股票价格对扩张性货币政策冲击的反应更强。我们的研究结果对学者、投资者和政策制定者具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 8
Irrational Exuberance or the Money-Trust Power Grab: Was the Panic of 1907 Truly a Speculative Bubble or a Financial Coup D'état? 非理性繁荣还是金钱信托夺权:1907年的恐慌真的是投机泡沫还是金融政变?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1948854
Richard N. LaRocca, R. Valentine, Thomas Cunningham
Abstract The Panic of 1907 was largely attributed to several factors, including strong economic growth, high levels of liquidity in the financial system, the ability and willingness of speculators to take significant risk in the stock market, and a banking system without proper checks and balances. These factors all combined to create volatile stock market returns in the United States that are indicative of market bubbles. This paper examined whether a speculative bubble was present in US equity prices during the Panic of 1907 using data from the Cowles Commission. We found that there was no bubble present in stock valuations in the United States during this period and that the Panic of 1907 was a mitigated economic event rather than the fallout of stock speculation. One such contributing factor may lie in the idea that JP Morgan and his House of Morgan were the intervening factor which tempered and stabilized market fundamentals. Their actions of playing the surrogate role of lender of last resort and of containing any financial crises, manias, or panics during this period prior to the Aldrich-Vreeland Act of 1908 and the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 may have influenced the quelling of a speculative bubble in 1907.
1907年的恐慌在很大程度上可归因于几个因素,包括强劲的经济增长、金融体系的高流动性、投机者在股票市场承担重大风险的能力和意愿,以及缺乏适当制衡的银行体系。这些因素加在一起造成了美国股市回报的波动,预示着市场泡沫。本文利用考尔斯委员会(Cowles Commission)的数据,研究了1907年恐慌期间美国股市是否存在投机泡沫。我们发现,在这一时期,美国的股票估值不存在泡沫,1907年的恐慌是一个缓和的经济事件,而不是股票投机的后果。其中一个促成因素可能在于,摩根大通和他的摩根银行是缓和和稳定市场基本面的干预因素。在1908年奥尔德里奇-弗里兰法案和1913年美联储成立之前的这段时间里,他们扮演最后贷款人的代理角色,遏制任何金融危机、狂热或恐慌的行为,可能影响了1907年投机泡沫的平息。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Herding on Betas and Idiosyncratic Risk 放牧对β和特殊风险的影响
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1975713
P. Messis, A. Alexandridis, A. Zapranis
Abstract This paper investigates the consequences of herding on systematic and idiosyncratic risk for stocks traded on S&P 500. Herding behavior is measured through a state-space model. Using monthly data from 1999 to 2017, different periods of herding and adverse herding are present. Evidence shows that the state space model identifies the significant herding effects on both risk measures for specific portfolios. Our findings validate the expected implications of herding on betas but not of adverse herding. In addition, the low-beta anomaly is not confirmed on our beta-based portfolios. On the other hand, we confirm the risk-return relationship. We attribute this evidence to overpriced values of high beta assets as well as to the effects of adverse herding on the systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Finally, we also show that the herding level could serve as a systematic driver of returns improving the portfolio performance of traditional ‘anomaly’ based strategies.
摘要本文研究了羊群效应对标普500指数成份股系统风险和特质风险的影响。羊群行为是通过状态空间模型来衡量的。利用1999 - 2017年的月度数据,存在不同时期的放牧和不利放牧。有证据表明,状态空间模型识别了特定投资组合的两种风险度量的显著羊群效应。我们的研究结果证实了预期的放牧对β的影响,而不是不利的放牧。此外,在我们基于贝塔的投资组合中,低贝塔异常并未得到证实。另一方面,我们确认了风险收益关系。我们将这一证据归因于高贝塔资产的高估价值以及不利羊群对系统和特殊风险的影响。最后,我们还表明,羊群水平可以作为回报的系统驱动因素,改善传统的基于“异常”的投资组合绩效。
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引用次数: 1
Predicting Stock and Bond Market Returns with Emotions: Evidence from Futures Markets 用情绪预测股票和债券市场回报:来自期货市场的证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1975717
Jiancheng Shen, John M. Griffith, Mohammad Najand, Licheng Sun
Abstract We explore the ability of market emotions (fear, gloom, joy, optimism) to predict S&P 500 Index and 10-year Treasury notes futures returns by utilizing VAR and TGARCH models. In our VAR models, we find that one of four emotions (fear) has predictive power for stock index futures returns. We also find Treasury futures market returns are influenced by joy and optimism measures of emotions. Further, we employ a TGARCH model with anemotional sentiment measure (fear) and find that fear has a major effect on the market returns and conditional volatility of futures markets.
摘要本文运用VAR和TGARCH模型,探讨市场情绪(恐惧、悲观、喜悦、乐观)对标普500指数和10年期美国国债期货收益的预测能力。在我们的VAR模型中,我们发现四种情绪中的一种(恐惧)对股指期货收益具有预测能力。我们还发现,美国国债期货市场的收益受到喜悦和乐观情绪指标的影响。进一步,我们采用带有情绪度量(恐惧)的TGARCH模型,发现恐惧对市场收益和期货市场的条件波动率有主要影响。
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引用次数: 5
The Impact of Investor Sentiment on Bitcoin Returns and Conditional Volatilities during the Era of Covid-19 新冠肺炎时期投资者情绪对比特币回报和条件波动的影响
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-11 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1975285
Derya Güler
Abstract This paper studies the impact of investor sentiment on the Bitcoin returns and conditional volatility taking into account the Covid-19 outbreak by using different investor sentiment proxies and by employing the EGARCH model. Estimation results show that investor sentiment has a positive impact on the Bitcoin returns and their volatility, especially after the Covid-19 outbreak. The VAR model is employed to investigate whether investor sentiment and Bitcoin returns are related in a dynamic setting and to make distinguish between rational and irrational investor sentiments. The results from the VAR model show that both rational and irrational investor sentiments have an impact on Bitcoin returns indicating that the Bitcoin market is also driven by emotions and noise traders have an impact on the data generating process of Bitcoin returns. The positive impact of investor sentiment can be attributed to the fear of missing out (FOMO) behavior of speculative and irrational investors.
摘要本文采用不同的投资者情绪代理,采用EGARCH模型,研究了考虑Covid-19疫情的投资者情绪对比特币收益和条件波动率的影响。估计结果表明,投资者情绪对比特币收益及其波动性有积极影响,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情爆发后。运用VAR模型考察动态环境下投资者情绪与比特币收益是否相关,并区分理性与非理性投资者情绪。VAR模型的结果表明,理性和非理性的投资者情绪都会对比特币收益产生影响,说明比特币市场也是由情绪驱动的,噪声交易者对比特币收益的数据生成过程产生影响。投资者情绪的积极影响可以归因于投机和非理性投资者的错失恐惧(FOMO)行为。
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引用次数: 15
Determinants of Put-Call Disparity: Kospi 200 Index Options 买卖期权差异的决定因素:Kospi 200指数期权
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-11 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1974442
Sam-soo Kim, Jimmy Lockwood, L. Lockwood, Hong Miao
Abstract Many studies find that traditional option pricing models fail to work in practice. The implied volatility smile is one example. In this study, we examine deviations of spot prices from prices implied by put-call parity for Korean KOSPI 200 index options, one of the most actively traded derivative products in the world. Deviations are significant and economically meaningful across different moneyness categories spanning deep-in-the-money to deep-out-of-the-money options. Determinants of put-call disparities for the KOSPI 200 index options include past spot return moments, cognitive biases, and prior option trading volume relative to spot trading volume. We show mispricing is more likely to occur after periods of extreme downturns in the stock market, implying demand for put options increases relative to call options when investors become more likely to insure against extreme loss. We also show that put-call disparity rates have predictive power for future spot returns due to overreaction of KOSPI 200 index option traders, rather than to information contained in option prices.
许多研究发现,传统的期权定价模型在实践中并不适用。隐含波动率微笑就是一个例子。在本研究中,我们研究了韩国KOSPI 200指数期权(世界上交易最活跃的衍生产品之一)的现货价格与看跌期权平价所隐含的价格的偏差。在不同的金钱类别中,从“有钱”到“没钱”的选择,偏差都是显著的和有经济意义的。KOSPI 200指数期权的看跌期权差异的决定因素包括过去的现货收益时刻、认知偏差、之前的期权交易量相对于现货交易量。我们发现,在股市极度低迷时期后,更有可能出现定价错误,这意味着当投资者更有可能防范极端损失时,对看跌期权的需求相对于看涨期权增加。我们还表明,由于KOSPI 200指数期权交易者的过度反应,而不是期权价格中包含的信息,看跌期权差价率对未来现货回报具有预测能力。
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引用次数: 2
V-Shaped Disposition Effect, Stock Prices, and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift: Evidence from Korea v型处置效应、股价和收益公告后漂移:来自韩国的证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-09 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1975715
Minki Kim, Toyoung Kim, T. Kim
Abstract This study investigates the impact of the V-shaped disposition effect on asset prices in the Korean stock market, which is characterized by a high proportion of retail investors. By utilizing a specified dataset containing stock-level information on the trading activities of different types of investors, we find evidence to support the presence of V-shaped net selling propensity in the Korean stock market. In addition, we find that net selling pressure has a positive effect on the cross-section of subsequent stock returns, and this relationship appears only when accounting for individual trading. Furthermore, this net selling propensity of retail investors delays the incorporation of good news into stock price, while helps stock price reflect its bad news. We show that good (bad) news lead to positive (negative) drifts in stock prices following earnings announcements in the presence (paucity) of investors exhibiting the V-shaped disposition.
摘要本研究探讨了散户投资者比例较高的韩国股票市场的v型配置效应对资产价格的影响。通过使用包含不同类型投资者交易活动的股票级别信息的特定数据集,我们找到了支持韩国股票市场存在v型净卖出倾向的证据。此外,我们发现净卖出压力对后续股票收益横截面有正向影响,这种关系仅在考虑个人交易时才会出现。此外,散户投资者的这种净卖出倾向推迟了好消息在股价中的体现,同时有助于股价反映坏消息。我们表明,在投资者呈现v型倾向的情况下,利好(坏)消息会导致收益公告后股价的正面(负面)波动。
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引用次数: 0
News Credibility and Influence within the Financial Markets 金融市场中的新闻可信度和影响力
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-09 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1974443
Zhen Yu, Michael D. Wang, Xiangdong Wei, J. Lou
Abstract How does information credibility, a subjective judgment of investors, affect empirical asset pricing in financial markets? Traditional economic theories are inadequate for interpreting market responses driven by people’s subjective thinking, as these cognitive processes are not encompassed by the concept of utility. We explore these effects by using computational linguistics and deep structured learning algorithms to analyze financial newspapers and social media posts. After controlling for factors related to content and market momentum in our narrative based credibility indicator, we find that news credibility is positively correlated with the returns on assets preferred by experts and negatively correlated with assets preferred by gamblers. Based on this finding, we point out that the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is not appropriate in the dominant market of gamblers in the short-term. In the long-term, however, investment motivation does not significantly affect the validity of the hypothesis.
信息可信度是投资者的一种主观判断,它如何影响金融市场上的经验资产定价?传统的经济理论不足以解释由人们的主观思维驱动的市场反应,因为这些认知过程并不包含在效用的概念中。我们通过使用计算语言学和深度结构化学习算法来分析财经报纸和社交媒体帖子来探索这些影响。在我们基于叙事的可信度指标中控制了与内容和市场动量相关的因素后,我们发现新闻可信度与专家偏好的资产收益率呈正相关,与赌徒偏好的资产收益率负相关。在此基础上,我们指出有效市场假说(EMH)在短期内并不适用于赌客占主导地位的市场。然而,从长期来看,投资动机对假设的有效性没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 2
Risk Preference Elicitation and Financial Advice Taking 风险偏好诱导与财务建议采纳
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-09 DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2021.1974444
David J. Streich
Abstract Financial advisors rely on accurate measures of investor risk preferences. This study compares different risk elicitation methods (REMs) in terms of their perceived suitability and impact on financial advice taking. The results suggest that the perceived suitability of the suggested risk profile strongly predicts delegation to an advisory tool. REMs differ in terms of their perceived process similarity with the investor, which positively affects suitability (and thus, delegation) directly and through its positive effect on source credibility. Differences were also found with regards to the perceived complexity of the risk profiling task, which is positively related to suitability. In summary, the findings imply that applying suitable REMs matters not only because it avoids misrepresentation of an investor’s true risk preferences, but because it directly affects the propensity to delegate financial decision-making.
财务顾问依赖于对投资者风险偏好的准确衡量。本研究比较了不同的风险引出方法(REMs)在他们的感知适用性和影响财务建议采取。结果表明,所建议的风险概况的感知适宜性强烈预测委托咨询工具。rem的不同之处就其与投资者的感知过程相似性而言,这直接并通过其对来源可信度的积极影响积极影响适用性(因此,委托)。在风险分析任务的感知复杂性方面也发现了差异,这与适用性呈正相关。总之,研究结果表明,应用合适的REMs很重要,不仅因为它避免了对投资者真实风险偏好的歪曲,而且因为它直接影响了委托财务决策的倾向。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Behavioral Finance
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