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Trade integration and synchronization of shocks 贸易一体化与冲击同步
Pub Date : 2005-01-08 DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.2005.00209.X
Ian Babetskii
According to the >European Commission (1990), closer integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks and to more synchronized business cycles between countries. However, for Krugman (1993) closer integration implies higher specialization and, thus, higher risks of idiosyncratic shocks. Drawing on the evidence from a group of transition countries, this paper tries to determine whose argument is supported by the data. This is done by confronting estimated time-varying coefficients of supply and demand shock asymmetry with indicators of trade intensity and exchange rates. We find that (i) an increase in trade intensity leads to higher symmetry of demand shocks: the effect of integration on supply shock asymmetry varies from country to country; and (ii) a decrease in exchange rate volatility has a positive effect on demand shock convergence. The results confirm 'The European Commission view' and also the argument by Kenen (2001) according to which the impact of trade integration on shock asymmetry depends on the type of shock. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2005.
根据欧盟委员会(1990),更紧密的一体化导致不对称冲击更少,国家之间的商业周期更同步。然而,对于克鲁格曼(1993)来说,更紧密的一体化意味着更高的专业化,因此,更高的特殊冲击风险。根据一组转型国家的证据,本文试图确定谁的论点得到数据的支持。这是通过将估计的供需冲击不对称的时变系数与贸易强度和汇率指标进行比较来实现的。我们发现:(1)贸易强度的增加导致需求冲击的对称性提高:一体化对供给冲击不对称性的影响因国而异;(二)汇率波动的减小对需求冲击趋同有正向影响。研究结果证实了“欧盟委员会的观点”以及Kenen(2001)的观点,即贸易一体化对冲击不对称性的影响取决于冲击的类型。(c)欧洲复兴开发银行,2005年。
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引用次数: 82
Politician control, agency problems and ownership reform 政治家控制、代理问题和所有制改革
Pub Date : 2005-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.2005.00205.X
L. Xu, T. Zhu, Yi-Min Lin
Using data from a recent national survey on the ownership reform of state-owned enterprises in China, we study the effects of reducing politician control and agency problems on a number of reform outcomes. Taking into account the endogenous nature of the reform, we find that these outcome measures of the reform's success are positively affected by the lessening of politician control through increasing the firm's flexibility in labour deployment and by the mitigation of agency costs through the introduction of more effective corporate governance mechanisms such as one-share one-vote and shareholding-based board structure composition. Ownership structure also matters: relative to shareholding by the state, foreign ownership has a positive effect on reform outcomes; individual (mostly employee) shareholding has a negative or insignificant effect. Somewhat surprisingly, operating autonomy (excluding labour deployment flexibility) has a negative effect on firm performance, suggesting serious agency problems in the reformed enterprises. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2005.
利用最近一项关于中国国有企业所有制改革的全国性调查数据,我们研究了减少政治家控制和代理问题对一些改革结果的影响。考虑到改革的内生性质,我们发现,通过增加企业在劳动力配置方面的灵活性来减少政治家的控制,以及通过引入更有效的公司治理机制(如一股一票和基于股权的董事会结构组成)来降低代理成本,对改革成功的这些结果指标产生了积极的影响。股权结构也很重要:相对于国有股权,外资持股对改革结果有积极影响;个人(主要是员工)持股具有负向或不显著的影响。令人惊讶的是,经营自主权(不包括劳动力部署灵活性)对企业绩效有负面影响,这表明改革后企业存在严重的代理问题。(c)欧洲复兴开发银行,2005年。
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引用次数: 137
Consumption smoothing in Russia 俄罗斯的消费平滑
Pub Date : 2003-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00140
Emmanuel Skoufias
This paper uses panel data from rounds V-IX of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to examine the extent to which households are able to protect their consumption from fluctuations in their income. Copyright (c)The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2003..
本文使用俄罗斯纵向监测调查(RLMS)第V-IX轮的面板数据来检验家庭能够保护其消费免受收入波动影响的程度。版权所有(c)欧洲复兴开发银行,2003..
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引用次数: 73
Employees and second‐job holding in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia 在南斯拉夫联邦共和国的雇员和第二职业
Pub Date : 2003-06-12 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00141
B. Reilly, G. Krstić
This paper explores the second-job holding (or 'moonlighting') behaviour of a sample of employees using data from a unique survey conducted for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in January 1998. Both participation in 'moonlighting' and the number of hours worked are examined. The participation model performs better in an econometric sense and provides the focus for our discussion. We note a strong regional dimension to 'moonlighting' in the FRY with employees in Central Serbia disproportionately represented in this activity. In addition, blue-collar workers are found to be more likely to engage in 'moonlighting' than white-collar workers. The set of labour supply variables implied by neo-classical theory exerts a strong influence and explains a significant amount of the phenomenon of interest. Our calculations suggest that if main (or regular) job earnings are restored to levels that prevailed at the time of the 'break-up' of the federation, employee second-job holding in the FRY would only fall by about one-seventh. Copyright (c)The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2003.
本文利用1998年1月为南斯拉夫联邦共和国(FRY)进行的一项独特调查的数据,探讨了雇员样本的第二份工作(或“兼职”)行为。参与“兼职”和工作时间都要接受调查。参与模式在计量经济学意义上表现得更好,并为我们的讨论提供了重点。我们注意到南斯拉夫联邦共和国的“兼职”具有很强的区域性,塞尔维亚中部的雇员在这项活动中所占比例过高。此外,蓝领工人比白领工人更有可能从事“兼职”。新古典主义理论所隐含的劳动力供给变量集具有强大的影响力,并解释了大量的利息现象。我们的计算表明,如果主要(或常规)工作收入恢复到联邦“解体”时的普遍水平,那么联邦联邦雇员持有的第二份工作只会下降约七分之一。版权所有(c)欧洲复兴开发银行,2003。
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引用次数: 13
Completing Transition: The Main Challenges 完成转型:主要挑战
Pub Date : 2003-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.T01-2-00145
B. Sergi
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引用次数: 0
Optimal dynamics of environmental quality in economies in transition1 转型期经济中环境质量的最优动态
Pub Date : 2003-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00142
A. Chimeli
Environmental pressures in the transition economies of the post-Soviet era affect not only the quality of life for local populations, but also other key economic issues such as privatization and employment by posing obstacles to their progress. Most studies addressing the environment in transition economies are empirical or analyze the effect of environmental protection on economic variables without first establishing an underlying framework together with the optimal path of environmental quality during the transition. This paper presents such a framework and a policy rule for attainment of the optimal balance between capital and environmental quality in economies in transition. Furthermore, the model shows that pollution taxes or tradable pollution permits are by themselves insufficient to implement the social optimum in a decentralized economy. The results of the model are consistent with depressed economic activity in those economies during an initial phase, and with the diversity of environmental policies in both Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries and the Newly Independent States (NIS). Copyright (c)The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2003..
后苏联时代转型经济中的环境压力不仅影响到当地人口的生活质量,而且也影响到其他关键的经济问题,如私有化和就业,阻碍了这些问题的发展。大多数关于转型经济环境的研究都是经验主义的,或者分析环境保护对经济变量的影响,而没有首先建立一个基本框架和转型期间环境质量的最优路径。本文提出了这样一个框架和政策规则,以便在转型期经济中实现资本和环境质量之间的最佳平衡。此外,该模型表明,污染税或可交易的污染许可本身不足以在分散的经济中实现社会最优。该模型的结果与这些经济体在初始阶段的低迷经济活动以及中欧和东欧(CEE)国家和新独立国家(NIS)环境政策的多样性相一致。版权所有(c)欧洲复兴开发银行,2003..
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引用次数: 18
Designing Financial Systems in Transition Economies 转型经济中的金融体系设计
Pub Date : 2003-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00145
S. Claessens
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引用次数: 10
Regional economic performance in China 中国区域经济表现
Pub Date : 2003-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00138
A. Bhalla, Shujie Yao, Zongyi Zhang
This paper investigates convergence patterns among China's provinces using GDP data for the period 1952-97. We analyze convergence behaviour on the basis of Markov chains proposed by Quah (1993) and the generalized entropy decomposition proposed by Shorrocks (1980, 1984). Both sets of results show similar evidence of convergence within the pre-defined geo-economic sub-regions, but no evidence is found of convergence between the sub-regions. This finding has important policy implications for regional economic development in China. Copyright (c)The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2003.
本文利用1952- 1997年的GDP数据研究了中国各省间的趋同模式。我们在Quah(1993)提出的马尔可夫链和Shorrocks(1980,1984)提出的广义熵分解的基础上分析收敛行为。两组结果都显示了预定义地缘经济子区域内趋同的相似证据,但没有发现子区域之间趋同的证据。这一发现对中国区域经济发展具有重要的政策意义。版权所有(c)欧洲复兴开发银行,2003。
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引用次数: 44
Gender, Work and Wages in the Soviet Union: A Legacy of Discrimination 苏联的性别、工作和工资:歧视的遗产
Pub Date : 2003-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.T01-1-00145
G. Friebel
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引用次数: 1
Economic Transition and Elections in Poland 波兰的经济转型和选举
Pub Date : 2003-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00139
John E. Jackson, J. Klich, K. Poznańska
Poland's economic and political transition, one of the most successful transitions, has depended very heavily on the job creation in new firms to replace the jobs lost in the formerly state-owned enterprises. This uses evidence from both survey and aggregate data to analyze four Polish elections during the transition. These analyses indicate that these de novo firms, the individuals they employ, and the residents in the local areas where they exist become an important constituency supporting pro-reform political parties and constraining the actions of parties less sympathetic to the reforms. The creation of this political constituency helps explain how countries can successfully pursue both economic and political reforms.
波兰的经济和政治转型是最成功的转型之一,它在很大程度上依赖于新公司创造就业机会,以取代以前国有企业失去的就业机会。本文使用来自调查和汇总数据的证据来分析波兰过渡期间的四次选举。这些分析表明,这些新成立的企业、它们雇用的个人以及它们所在地区的居民成为支持改革政党的重要选民,并限制不支持改革的政党的行动。这一政治选区的形成有助于解释各国如何能够成功地进行经济和政治改革。
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引用次数: 42
期刊
Economics of Transition
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