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Solidarity in question: activation of dormant political dispositions and Latino support for Trump in 2020 问题中的团结:激活沉睡的政治倾向与 2020 年拉美裔对特朗普的支持
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000371
Udi Sommer, Idan Franco
Expectations about ethnic solidarity notwithstanding, Latino support for Donald Trump grew between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Despite his anti-immigration positions and policies, the number of votes cast for Trump unexpectedly increased among members of the group most strongly associated with the issue of immigration. Latinos showed considerably more variance in voting behavior than what would be expected given accounts focused mainly on their ethnic solidarity. We propose a counterintuitive explanation for this trend: due to the activation of dormant political dispositions, it is the very anti-immigration attitudes characterizing Trump that account for his ascendence among Latino voters. Latinos voting for Trump did so because of his anti-immigration positions and not despite those positions. Our findings motivate a reevaluation of standard understandings of the role of minorities in American politics writ large and in American elections more specifically. Furthermore, as anti-immigration Latinos reside disproportionately more in certain swing states, we find them to be a pivotal political force in determining election outcomes, though in unexpected ways.
尽管人们对种族团结抱有期望,但在 2016 年至 2020 年的总统选举期间,拉丁裔对唐纳德-特朗普的支持率却有所上升。尽管特朗普持反移民立场并推行反移民政策,但在与移民问题关联度最高的群体中,支持特朗普的票数却出乎意料地增加了。拉丁美洲人在投票行为上表现出的差异大大超出了人们的预期,因为人们主要关注的是他们的种族团结。我们对这一趋势提出了一个反直觉的解释:由于激活了沉睡的政治倾向,特朗普的反移民态度正是他在拉美裔选民中崛起的原因。拉美裔投票支持特朗普是因为他的反移民立场,而不是不顾这些立场。我们的研究结果促使我们重新评估对少数族裔在美国政治和美国选举中所扮演角色的标准理解。此外,由于反移民的拉美裔在某些摇摆州的居住比例过高,我们发现他们是决定选举结果的关键政治力量,尽管是以意想不到的方式。
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引用次数: 0
Deliberative ecologies: a relational critique of deliberative systems 商议生态学:商议系统的关系批判
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000358
R. Mendonça, Lucas Henrique Nigri Veloso, Bruno Dias Magalhães, F. Motta
This paper advocates a move beyond the systemic approach in the field of Deliberative Democracy. It argues that the notion of deliberative ecology can deliver the necessary conceptual elements that deliberative democrats seek in deliberative systems without some of the problems they either overlook or embrace. To advocate the advantages of an ecological perspective to deliberation, the article focuses on six axes of comparison: (i) performances of actants (instead of functions of arenas and players); (ii) articulations and translations (instead of transmission); (iii) vulnerabilities (instead of pathologies and dysfunctions); (iv) practice (instead of institutionally-oriented design); (v) diverse temporalities (instead of linear temporality) and; (vi) hologram-based analysis (instead of systemic analysis). In a nutshell, the article claims that the ecological approach to deliberation has the advantage of conceptualizing an ever-changing web of relations of interdependency, which connects diverse entities that are either relevant to a public discussion or that hinder its enactment.
本文主张超越协商民主领域的系统方法。文章认为,商议生态学的概念可以提供商议民主人士在商议系统中寻求的必要概念要素,而不会出现他们忽视或接受的一些问题。为了宣传生态学视角在商议中的优势,文章重点从六个方面进行了比较:(i) 行动者的表现(而非舞台和参与者的功能);(ii) 衔接和转换(而非传递);(iii) 脆弱性(而非病态和功能障碍);(iv) 实践(而非以机构为导向的设计);(v) 多样的时间性(而非线性时间性);(vi) 基于全息图的分析(而非系统分析)。总之,文章声称,审议的生态方法具有将不断变化的相互依存关系网概念化的优势,它将与公共讨论相关或阻碍其实施的各种实体联系在一起。
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引用次数: 0
Who looks up to the Leviathan? Ideology, political trust, and support for restrictive state interventions in times of crisis 谁在仰望利维坦?意识形态、政治信任和危机时期对限制性国家干预的支持
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000401
Matteo C. M. Casiraghi, L. Curini, N. Maggini, Alessandro Nai
The extent in which voters from different ideological viewpoints support state interventions to curb crises remains an outstanding conundrum, marred by conflicting evidence. In this article, we test two possible ways out from such puzzle. The role of ideology to explain support for state interventions, we argue, could be (i) conditional upon the ideological nature of the crisis itself (e.g., whether the crisis relates to conservation vs. post-materialist values), or (ii) unfolding indirectly, by moderating the role played by political trust. We present evidence from a conjoint experiment fielded in 2022 on a representative sample of 1,000 Italian citizens, in which respondents were asked whether they support specific governmental interventions to curb a crisis, described under different conditions (e.g., type of crisis, severity). Our results show that the type of crisis matters marginally – right-wing respondents were more likely to support state interventions only in the case of terrorism. More fundamentally, political trust affects the probability to support state interventions, but only for right-wing citizens.
不同意识形态观点的选民在多大程度上支持国家干预以遏制危机,这仍然是一个存在矛盾证据的突出难题。在这篇文章中,我们检验了解决这一难题的两种可能途径。我们认为,意识形态在解释对国家干预的支持方面所起的作用可能是:(i) 以危机本身的意识形态性质为条件(例如,危机是否与节约型价值观和后物质主义价值观有关),或者 (ii) 通过调节政治信任所起的作用而间接展开。我们在 2022 年对具有代表性的 1000 个意大利公民样本进行了联合实验,询问受访者是否支持政府在不同条件(如危机类型、严重程度)下为遏制危机而采取的特定干预措施。我们的结果表明,危机类型的影响微乎其微--只有在恐怖主义的情况下,右翼受访者才更有可能支持国家干预。更重要的是,政治信任会影响支持国家干预的概率,但这只针对右翼公民。
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引用次数: 0
The micro-foundations of social democratic welfare chauvinism and inclusion: class demand and policy reforms in Western Europe, 1980−2018 社会民主主义福利沙文主义和包容性的微观基础:1980-2018 年西欧的阶级需求和政策改革
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000346
Eloisa Harris, Matthias Enggist
In Western European welfare states, research shows that support for welfare chauvinism, or the notion that welfare benefits for immigrants should be restricted, is highest among white, blue-collar working-class voters. On the other hand, higher-educated, middle-class voters are more likely to reject welfare chauvinism and support the inclusion of immigrants into the welfare state. For social democratic parties, this might pose an electoral dilemma between generous welfare states and open borders: They rely on both middle- and working-class constituencies and are ideologically tied both to a universal welfare state and the protection of (national) workers. To what extent does such an electoral dilemma between classes exist for social democratic parties? How do social democratic parties solve this dilemma when in government? In this paper, we postulate that a class divide around welfare chauvinism exists within the electorate for social democratic parties and that these parties’ policies in government reflect these divides: If the social democratic electorate has a high share of working-class voters, they should act more welfare chauvinist than if their electorate is mostly middle class. We test these hypotheses by combining survey and macro-level policy data in 14 Western European countries from 1980 to 2018. We find consistent evidence of the existence of a working-class/middle-class divide regarding welfare chauvinism, even within social democratic electorates. On the macro-level, we find partial evidence that social democratic parties in power respond to the class demands of their electorate: They are less welfare chauvinist when they have a higher proportion of middle-class voters, whereas their working-class vote share does not significantly condition their policies at all, contrary to assumptions in the literature. We therefore conclude that as social democratic parties become parties of the middle classes, the likelihood that they will retrench immigrant welfare rights reduces.
研究显示,在西欧福利国家,支持福利沙文主义(即限制移民福利的观点)的白人蓝领工薪阶层选民比例最高。另一方面,受过高等教育的中产阶级选民更有可能拒绝福利沙文主义,并支持将移民纳入福利国家。对于社会民主党来说,这可能会在慷慨的福利国家和开放的边界之间造成选举困境:他们既依赖中产阶级和工人阶级选民,又在意识形态上与普遍的福利国家和(本国)工人的保护联系在一起。社会民主党在多大程度上存在这种阶级之间的选举困境?社会民主党在执政时如何解决这一困境?在本文中,我们假设社会民主党的选民中存在围绕福利沙文主义的阶级分歧,这些政党的政府政策反映了这些分歧:如果社会民主党的选民中有很高比例的工人阶级选民,他们应该比他们的选民主要是中产阶级的选民表现得更有福利沙文主义。我们通过结合1980年至2018年14个西欧国家的调查和宏观层面的政策数据来检验这些假设。我们发现在福利沙文主义方面存在工人阶级/中产阶级分歧的一致证据,甚至在社会民主党选民中也是如此。在宏观层面上,我们发现部分证据表明,执政的社会民主党对其选民的阶级要求做出了回应:当他们拥有较高比例的中产阶级选民时,他们的福利沙文主义倾向较低,而他们的工人阶级选票份额根本不会显著影响他们的政策,这与文献中的假设相反。因此,我们得出结论,随着社会民主党成为中产阶级政党,他们削减移民福利权利的可能性就会降低。
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引用次数: 0
Religiosity and electoral turnout among Muslims in Western Europe 西欧穆斯林的宗教信仰与选举投票率
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000334
Rachel Kollar, Nella Geurts, Niels Spierings
Investigating the relationship between Islamic religiosity and electoral participation amongst Muslim citizens in Western Europe, this study combines insights from the sociology of religion and Islamic studies with political behavior literature thus creating an improved theoretical framework and a richer empirical understanding surrounding the electoral participation of religious minorities. First, we theorize about three underlying dimensions of Islamic religiosity: frequency of mosque attendance, religious identification, and frequency of prayer. Subsequently, we consider how the religiosity–voting relationship is bolstered or hindered by hostile national environments such as more exclusionary policies and practices (e.g., veil banning or exclusionary citizenship laws). Empirically, we use a unique dataset that harmonizes five European surveys, resulting in a sample size of just under 8,000 European Muslims. Using multi-level techniques, we find, contrary to research on majority religiosity, that communal religiosity is unrelated to electoral participation. However, individual religiosity bolsters voting in particular among the second generation. Opposite to our expectation, we find that hostile environments do not seem to lead to different impacts of Islamic religiosity within Western Europe. Our results support the taking of a more fine-grained approach when measuring religiosity and also highlight how the impact varies across genders and generations.
本研究调查了西欧穆斯林公民的伊斯兰宗教信仰与选举参与之间的关系,将宗教社会学和伊斯兰研究的见解与政治行为文献相结合,从而围绕宗教少数群体的选举参与问题建立了一个更好的理论框架和更丰富的实证认识。首先,我们对伊斯兰宗教信仰的三个基本维度进行了理论分析:参加清真寺活动的频率、宗教认同和祈祷频率。随后,我们考虑了宗教信仰与投票之间的关系是如何被敌对的国家环境(如更具排斥性的政策和做法(如禁止戴面纱或排斥性的公民法))所促进或阻碍的。 在实证研究中,我们使用了一个独特的数据集,该数据集协调了五项欧洲调查,得出的样本量略低于 8000 名欧洲穆斯林。利用多层次技术,我们发现,与有关多数人宗教信仰的研究相反,群体宗教信仰与选举参与无关。然而,个人宗教信仰会促进投票,尤其是在第二代中。与我们的预期相反,我们发现在西欧,敌对的环境似乎并没有导致伊斯兰宗教信仰的不同影响。我们的研究结果支持在衡量宗教信仰时采取更精细的方法,同时也强调了宗教信仰对不同性别和不同世代的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Parliamentary questions as an intra-coalition control mechanism in mixed regimes 议会质询作为混合政权的联盟内部控制机制
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000322
Sebastian Block
Abstract Research on intra-coalition control shows that monitoring increases with the ideological distance between coalition partners. However, the focus of scholarship has been primarily on parliamentary regimes, not mixed regimes. In mixed regimes, intra-coalition control becomes more complex due to a dual executive. Parties must simultaneously monitor each other and the directly elected Head of Executive (HoE). This article examines intra-coalition control in mixed regimes by analyzing parliamentary questions from 21 German city councils. The German local level resembles a mixed regime. The executive consists of the coalition cabinet supported by the council majority and the directly elected mayor as the HoE. The results show that the division of governmental responsibilities affects intra-coalition control. When a coalition party is aligned with the HoE, the balance of power within the coalition is affected, and the other partners intensify controlling the aligned party. Additionally, policy divisiveness and issue salience are driving factors for intra-coalition control.
摘要对联盟内部控制的研究表明,随着联盟伙伴之间意识形态距离的增加,监控也随之增加。然而,学术研究的焦点主要集中在议会制政体,而不是混合政体。在混合政权中,由于双重执行者,联盟内部的控制变得更加复杂。各党派必须同时互相监督,并监督直接选举的行政首长。本文通过分析21个德国城市议会的议会问题来考察混合政权中的联盟内部控制。德国地方政府类似于一个混合政权。行政部门由议会多数支持的联合内阁和直接选举产生的市长组成。结果表明,政府责任分工影响联盟内部控制。当一个联合政党与HoE结盟时,联盟内部的权力平衡受到影响,其他伙伴加强对结盟政党的控制。此外,政策分歧和问题突出性是联盟内部控制的驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Control from the core? The impact of cabinet committees on ministers’ legislative activity 从核心控制?内阁委员会对部长立法活动的影响
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000310
Peter Heyn Nielsen
Abstract Ministers may be powerful policy initiators, but they are not equally powerful. Cabinet control mechanisms have become a crucial part of cabinet governance, which can serve to contain agency loss and consequently constrain ministers in the policymaking process. However, empirical studies have not focused on the impact of such control mechanisms on individual ministers’ political outcomes. I turn attention to certain cabinet committees as intra-cabinet control mechanisms and argue that members of these enjoy a policymaking advantage compared to nonmembers. Analyzing ministers’ number of laws proposed to parliament in Denmark from 1975 to 2022, I look beyond parties as unitary actors and provide evidence for this causal relationship. Membership of the Economic Committee increases ministers’ legislative activity. Thus, even within parties in cabinet, ministers have unequal possibilities to act as policy-seeking. These findings offer new insights into political parties in governments, cabinet governance, policymaking, and legislative processes.
部长们可能是强有力的政策发起者,但他们的权力并不相同。内阁控制机制已成为内阁治理的重要组成部分,它可以遏制机构损失,从而在决策过程中约束部长。然而,实证研究并未关注这种控制机制对部长个人政治结果的影响。我将注意力转向作为内阁内部控制机制的某些内阁委员会,并认为与非成员相比,这些委员会的成员享有决策优势。分析了1975年至2022年丹麦部长们向议会提出的法律数量,我超越了政党作为单一行动者的视角,并为这种因果关系提供了证据。经济委员会的成员资格增加了部长们的立法活动。因此,即使在内阁的政党内部,部长们也有不平等的可能性作为政策寻求者。这些发现为政府中的政党、内阁治理、政策制定和立法程序提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Varieties of clientelism across political parties: new measures of patron–client relationships 跨政党的各种庇护主义:赞助人-客户关系的新措施
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000309
Masaaki Higashijima, Hidekuni Washida
Abstract Recent research on clientelism has focused on the varieties of clientelism. They suggest that clientelistic exchanges differ in terms of the expected length of iterations, whereby politicians deliver benefits to voters in exchange for political support. Using newly collected V-Party data (1,844 political parties from 165 countries, 1970–2019), we identify two prominent types of clientelism that recent studies have suggested: relational clientelism and single-shot clientelism. By demonstrating that our measures of clientelism outperform existing cross-national indices, we suggest that it is important to unpack clientelistic linkages at the party level to grasp the fine-grained differences in clientelism across parties within states. We then apply our measures to the analysis of the relationship between economic development and clientelism, one of the major topics in the clientelism study. Our analysis finds that relational clientelism persists even in relatively developed countries, whereas the effect of economic development on single-shot clientelism has a curvilinear relationship. Our applications of the new measures of clientelism also show that the gap in clientelistic practices between ruling and opposition parties varies depending on the types of clientelism, tenure lengths of incumbents, and the degree of political centralization.
摘要近年来对裙带关系的研究主要集中在裙带关系的种类上。他们认为,裙带关系的交换在迭代的预期长度方面有所不同,即政治家向选民提供利益以换取政治支持。利用新收集的V-Party数据(来自165个国家的1844个政党,1970年至2019年),我们确定了最近研究表明的两种突出的clientelism类型:关系clientelism和单次clientelism。通过证明我们对庇护主义的衡量优于现有的跨国指数,我们建议,重要的是要在政党层面上解开庇护主义联系,以掌握各州内政党之间庇护主义的细微差异。然后,我们将这些措施应用于分析经济发展与裙带关系之间的关系,这是裙带关系研究的主要主题之一。我们的分析发现,即使在相对发达的国家,关系clientelism仍然存在,而经济发展对一次性clientelism的影响呈曲线关系。我们对裙带关系新衡量标准的应用还表明,执政党和反对党之间裙带关系实践的差距取决于裙带关系的类型、现任者的任期长短和政治集中化程度。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing deliberative reform in a parliamentary system: prospects for recursive representation 推进议会制的协商改革:递归代表制的前景
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000292
Nardine Alnemr, Selen A. Ercan, Nick Vlahos, John S. Dryzek, Andrew Leigh, Michael Neblo
Abstract Recent theories of democratic representation push beyond ‘minimalist’ notions that only rely on periodic elections to connect officials and constituents. For example, Jane Mansbridge (2019) calls for ‘recursive representation’, which seeks ongoing, two-way interaction between representatives and their constituents. Given the scale and complexity of modern representative democracies, how can such ambitious proposals be translated into practice? We analyze two Deliberative Town Halls (DTHs) convened with a Federal Member of Australian Parliament in 2020 to discuss a complex issue, mitochondrial donation, ahead of a parliamentary debate and conscience vote on this issue. Drawing on interviews with participants, we argue that democratic innovations such as DTHs can contribute to realizing recursive representation when three criteria are met: authenticity, inclusion, and impact. We discuss the significance of each criterion and the role of DTHs in advancing recursive representation in a parliamentary system.
最近的民主代表制理论超越了仅仅依靠定期选举来联系官员和选民的“极简主义”概念。例如,简·曼斯布里奇(2019)呼吁“递归代表”,即寻求代表与其选民之间持续的双向互动。考虑到现代代议制民主的规模和复杂性,如何将这些雄心勃勃的提议转化为实践?我们分析了2020年与澳大利亚议会联邦议员召开的两次审议市政厅(DTHs),在就此问题进行议会辩论和良心投票之前,讨论了一个复杂的问题——线粒体捐赠。根据对参与者的访谈,我们认为,当满足三个标准:真实性、包容性和影响力时,DTHs等民主创新可以有助于实现递归代表性。我们讨论了每个标准的意义和DTHs在议会制中推进递归代表的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Popularity and powers: comparing public opinion on presidents in semi-presidential and presidential regimes 声望与权力:半总统制与总统制总统的民意比较
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1017/s1755773923000280
Maarika Kujanen
Abstract The role of the president varies between political systems, and so does public opinion on presidents. One of the most evident factors distinguishing presidents in different systems is the constitutional strength of the presidency, which should impact how presidents are perceived by the people. Public opinion on presidents has mainly been studied in the context of classical presidential regimes such as the USA and Latin American countries, and we lack systematic empirical research on presidential popularity in other regime types and in the context of the presidents’ constitutional powers. This article addresses this research gap by analysing whether the level of presidential powers explain variation in presidential popularity across different constitutional settings. Drawing on public opinion surveys and relevant contextual data from 15 countries, the results show that a higher level of presidential popularity is associated with weaker presidency and that the impact of the economy and electoral cycle is conditioned by the level of presidential powers.
在不同的政治制度下,总统的角色各不相同,公众对总统的看法也各不相同。区分不同体制下的总统的最明显因素之一是总统的宪法权力,这应该会影响人民对总统的看法。对总统民意的研究主要是在美国和拉美等经典总统制国家背景下进行的,而对其他政体类型的总统民意以及总统宪法权力背景下的总统民意缺乏系统的实证研究。本文通过分析总统权力水平是否解释了不同宪法背景下总统受欢迎程度的变化,解决了这一研究缺口。根据来自15个国家的民意调查和相关背景数据,研究结果显示,总统支持率越高,其执政能力越弱,经济和选举周期的影响取决于总统权力的水平。
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引用次数: 0
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European Political Science Review
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