Evaluation最新文献

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ParEvo: A methodology for the exploration and evaluation of alternative futures ParEvo:一种探索和评估替代性期货的方法

3区社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Evaluation

Pub Date : 2023-09-10 DOI: 10.1177/13563890231188743

Rick Davies, Tom Hobson, Lara Mani, Simon Beard

Evaluators’ main encounter with views of the future is in the form of theories of change, about how a programme will work to achieve a desired end, in a given context. These are typically focussed on specific relatively short-term futures, which are both desired and expected. But even in the short term, reality often involves unpredictable events which must be responded to. Other ways of thinking about the future may be helpful and complementary, notably those developed by foresight practitioners working in the field of futures studies. These pay more attention to a range of possible futures, rather than a single perspective. One way of exploring such futures is by using ParEvo.org, an online process that enables the participatory exploration of alternative futures. This article explains how the ParEvo process works, the theory informing its design, and its usage to date. Attention is given to three evaluation challenges, and methods to address them: (a) optimising exercise design, (b) analysis of immediate results and (c) identifying longer-term impacts. Two exercises undertaken by the Cambridge-based Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) in 2021–2022 are used as illustrative examples.

评价人员对未来的看法主要是以变革理论的形式出现的，即在给定的背景下，一个方案将如何实现预期的目标。这些交易通常侧重于特定的相对短期的期货，既有期望的，也有预期的。但即使在短期内，现实也常常涉及不可预测的事件，必须对此作出反应。其他思考未来的方法可能是有益的和互补的，特别是那些在未来研究领域工作的远见实践者所开发的方法。它们更多地关注一系列可能的未来，而不是单一的观点。探索这种未来的一种方式是使用ParEvo.org，这是一个在线程序，可以让人们参与探索可选择的未来。本文解释了ParEvo过程是如何工作的，为其设计提供依据的理论，以及迄今为止的使用情况。关注三个评估挑战和解决它们的方法:(a)优化练习设计，(b)分析即时结果，(c)确定长期影响。本文以剑桥存在风险研究中心(CSER)在2021-2022年进行的两项研究为例进行了说明。

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引用次数: 0

French language abstracts 法语摘要

3区社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Evaluation

Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/13563890231185015

Restricted accessAbstractFirst published online July 13, 2023French language abstractsVolume 29, Issue 3https://doi.org/10.1177/13563890231185015

限制访问abstract首次在线发表于2023年7月13日法语摘要第29卷第3期https://doi.org/10.1177/13563890231185015

引用次数: 0

Toward a theory of planned social change: alternative perspectives and ideas. 走向有计划的社会变革理论:不同的观点和想法。