Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-86-96
E. V. Karanina, I. A. Martyanov
The article contains a brief analysis of the level of debt burden of the population of the Russian Federation, a review of the main methods of regulatory authorities to stabilize this indicator, as well as the place occupied by the Russian Federation in the world. The work also carried out a more in-depth analysis of statistical data from the Central Bank of Russia, characterizing the state and dynamics of this lending market for the period 2012–2022 on examples of subjects of the Volga Federal District. Based on the data obtained, conclusions were drawn about the nature of the development of the personal lending market in the Russian Federation.
{"title":"Assessment of the Scale and Risks of the Personal Lending Market in the Volga Federal District","authors":"E. V. Karanina, I. A. Martyanov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-86-96","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-86-96","url":null,"abstract":"The article contains a brief analysis of the level of debt burden of the population of the Russian Federation, a review of the main methods of regulatory authorities to stabilize this indicator, as well as the place occupied by the Russian Federation in the world. The work also carried out a more in-depth analysis of statistical data from the Central Bank of Russia, characterizing the state and dynamics of this lending market for the period 2012–2022 on examples of subjects of the Volga Federal District. Based on the data obtained, conclusions were drawn about the nature of the development of the personal lending market in the Russian Federation.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"49 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135813887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-72-85
A. V. Shevchenko, D. A. Vereikin, P. G. Kuzmischev, D. A. Ryabukhin, S. S. Radchenko
With the dramatic increase in the role of mine blast obstacles in modern armed conflicts, mine blast reconnaissance is one of the most important tasks of engineering troops to ensure the successful execution of their combat tasks by military units. However, in situations where the enemy is trying to conceal their intentions, engineering reconnaissance tasks are almost always carried out under conditions of uncertainty. In these cases the research methods that allow modeling the process of reconnaissance of mine blast obstacles in a stochastic formulation come to the fore. The article presents the procedure of stochastic modeling of minefield section reconnaissance on the basis of statistical functions describing temporal character of consecutive actions of engineering-intelligence group. The output of the stochastic model is a distribution function in the form of the time required by an engineering reconnaissance team to conduct minefield reconnaissance. Based on the risk-based approach and the stochastic model, the influence of factors and conditions on the time of reconnaissance by an engineering reconnaissance team was investigated and their ranking was performed. Given that the factors that determine the time of follow-up survey of detected mines and processing of false signals are characterized by a high influence, it is proposed one of the ways to improve mine detection means, consisting in combining with a mine detector additional channel that allows you to determine the presence of an explosive substance in its chemical image in the form of vapor characteristic of its components in the air. The conclusion is made about the necessity of implementing a risk-oriented approach in the scientific and practical activities of engineering troops.
{"title":"Modeling Explosive Ordnance Disposal Reconnaissance Under Uncertainty","authors":"A. V. Shevchenko, D. A. Vereikin, P. G. Kuzmischev, D. A. Ryabukhin, S. S. Radchenko","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-72-85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-72-85","url":null,"abstract":"With the dramatic increase in the role of mine blast obstacles in modern armed conflicts, mine blast reconnaissance is one of the most important tasks of engineering troops to ensure the successful execution of their combat tasks by military units. However, in situations where the enemy is trying to conceal their intentions, engineering reconnaissance tasks are almost always carried out under conditions of uncertainty. In these cases the research methods that allow modeling the process of reconnaissance of mine blast obstacles in a stochastic formulation come to the fore. The article presents the procedure of stochastic modeling of minefield section reconnaissance on the basis of statistical functions describing temporal character of consecutive actions of engineering-intelligence group. The output of the stochastic model is a distribution function in the form of the time required by an engineering reconnaissance team to conduct minefield reconnaissance. Based on the risk-based approach and the stochastic model, the influence of factors and conditions on the time of reconnaissance by an engineering reconnaissance team was investigated and their ranking was performed. Given that the factors that determine the time of follow-up survey of detected mines and processing of false signals are characterized by a high influence, it is proposed one of the ways to improve mine detection means, consisting in combining with a mine detector additional channel that allows you to determine the presence of an explosive substance in its chemical image in the form of vapor characteristic of its components in the air. The conclusion is made about the necessity of implementing a risk-oriented approach in the scientific and practical activities of engineering troops.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"191 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135863527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-60-70
V. P. Malyshev, O. V. Vinogradov
The aim of the research is to evaluate various ways to counter precision weapons to improve the resilience of organizations needed for population survival in modern military conflicts. Research objectives: assessing the characteristics of high-precision weapons used in modern military conflicts, analyzing the possibility of using various methods of countering high-precision weapons to increase the stability of organizations necessary for population survival. Possible directions of using these methods are proposed, based on both active and passive counteraction to high-precision weapons. The materials of the article were prepared on the basis of studying open sources
{"title":"Possible Directions to Increase the Sustainability of Organizations Necessary for the Survival of the Population in Modern Military Conflicts","authors":"V. P. Malyshev, O. V. Vinogradov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-60-70","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-60-70","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the research is to evaluate various ways to counter precision weapons to improve the resilience of organizations needed for population survival in modern military conflicts. Research objectives: assessing the characteristics of high-precision weapons used in modern military conflicts, analyzing the possibility of using various methods of countering high-precision weapons to increase the stability of organizations necessary for population survival. Possible directions of using these methods are proposed, based on both active and passive counteraction to high-precision weapons. The materials of the article were prepared on the basis of studying open sources","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135863401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-11-27
Yu. I. Sokolov
The article analyzes the lessons of emergency situations of 2019 and the lessons of past years.
文章分析了2019年紧急局势的教训和过去几年的教训。
{"title":"Risks of Lessons Not Learned","authors":"Yu. I. Sokolov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-11-27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-11-27","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the lessons of emergency situations of 2019 and the lessons of past years.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"55 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136069504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-28-43
Yu. I. Sokolov
The article deals with the issues related to the accumulated environmental damage that was formed on the territory of Russia during the Soviet era and after the collapse of the USSR, the decision on the elimination of which is only being planned at the present time. This damage is due to the lack of attention on the part of the state and enterprises of various sectors of the national economy to environmental problems for decades.
{"title":"Risks of Accumulated Environmental Damage","authors":"Yu. I. Sokolov ","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-28-43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-28-43","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the issues related to the accumulated environmental damage that was formed on the territory of Russia during the Soviet era and after the collapse of the USSR, the decision on the elimination of which is only being planned at the present time. This damage is due to the lack of attention on the part of the state and enterprises of various sectors of the national economy to environmental problems for decades.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136069664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-8-10
V. P. Malyshev, A. A. Bykov
.
．
{"title":"Yu.I. Sokolov’s Memory","authors":"V. P. Malyshev, A. A. Bykov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-8-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-8-10","url":null,"abstract":".","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"109 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136068968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-44-59
Yu. I. Sokolov
The article discusses issues related to the main problems of the modern healthcare system in Russia, the state of health of the population and medical personnel, as well as the impact of the coronavirus on the country’s healthcare.
{"title":"The Acute Crisis of Russian Healthcare","authors":"Yu. I. Sokolov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-44-59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-5-44-59","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses issues related to the main problems of the modern healthcare system in Russia, the state of health of the population and medical personnel, as well as the impact of the coronavirus on the country’s healthcare.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136069579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-82-91
L. P. Koroleva, A. M. Pankrukhina
The purpose of this article is to analyze the existing indicative systems used to assess financial security in order to identify their inherent shortcomings. To achieve this goal, an assessment of the financial security of two Russian companies was carried out using six systems of indicators developed by various Russian researchers. As a result of comparing the obtained estimates, it was concluded that such estimates are highly correlated due to the use by the authors of the considered approaches of standard financial analysis coefiiients. In conclusion, it was noted that the key drawback of most of the considered systems of financial security indicators is ignoring the industry specifics of the object of assessment.
{"title":"Indicative Systems for Assessing the Financial Security of Business Entities: Disadvantages and Development Prospects","authors":"L. P. Koroleva, A. M. Pankrukhina","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-82-91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-82-91","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to analyze the existing indicative systems used to assess financial security in order to identify their inherent shortcomings. To achieve this goal, an assessment of the financial security of two Russian companies was carried out using six systems of indicators developed by various Russian researchers. As a result of comparing the obtained estimates, it was concluded that such estimates are highly correlated due to the use by the authors of the considered approaches of standard financial analysis coefiiients. In conclusion, it was noted that the key drawback of most of the considered systems of financial security indicators is ignoring the industry specifics of the object of assessment.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136356158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-20DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-72-81
E. A. Andreev, R. M. Vivchar, D. V. Reshetnikov
In a typical system for ensuring the safety of operation of equipment of complex technical systems, the most important element is the assessment of the individual risk of death (injury) and/or harm to the health of service personnel.. T erefore, in the process of developing a qualitative decision on the formation of a list and parameters of safety program measures, it is necessary to assess individual risk indicators, which is complicated by the presence of various uncertainties that cause the appearance of individual risk during the operation of equipment. T e article presents a simulation model that allows assessing the indicators of individual risk of death (injury) of service personnel during the operation of equipment in order to form a safety program. T is simulation model dif ers from the existing ones in that, as a result of aggregation of models of subprocesses of the operation of a hazardous production facility, it is possible to establish a relationship between the scenarios of the implementation of negative events, the parameters of the safety program measures and the complex ef ects of all signif cant undesirable factors. T e developed simulation model makes it possible to increase the adequacy of the assessment of the risk indicator: the individual risk of death (injury) and/or harm to the health of service personnel. T e ef iiency of the methodology will be demonstrated by the example of receiving an electrical injury by maintenance personnel during operation of the power supply system.
{"title":"Assessment of the Individual Risk of Injury to Service Personnel During the Operation of Complex Technical Systems Using a Simulation Model","authors":"E. A. Andreev, R. M. Vivchar, D. V. Reshetnikov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-72-81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-72-81","url":null,"abstract":"In a typical system for ensuring the safety of operation of equipment of complex technical systems, the most important element is the assessment of the individual risk of death (injury) and/or harm to the health of service personnel.. T erefore, in the process of developing a qualitative decision on the formation of a list and parameters of safety program measures, it is necessary to assess individual risk indicators, which is complicated by the presence of various uncertainties that cause the appearance of individual risk during the operation of equipment. T e article presents a simulation model that allows assessing the indicators of individual risk of death (injury) of service personnel during the operation of equipment in order to form a safety program. T is simulation model dif ers from the existing ones in that, as a result of aggregation of models of subprocesses of the operation of a hazardous production facility, it is possible to establish a relationship between the scenarios of the implementation of negative events, the parameters of the safety program measures and the complex ef ects of all signif cant undesirable factors. T e developed simulation model makes it possible to increase the adequacy of the assessment of the risk indicator: the individual risk of death (injury) and/or harm to the health of service personnel. T e ef iiency of the methodology will be demonstrated by the example of receiving an electrical injury by maintenance personnel during operation of the power supply system.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135187834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-20DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-50-59
V. P. Malyshev, O. V. Vinogradov, I. A. Rodionov
T is article presents the characteristics of hazardous chemicals that can be found in public and residential premises, considers possible sources of release of hazardous chemicals into the indoor air environment, considers carbon dioxide as an additional factor in the deterioration of indoor air quality.
{"title":"Factors of Air Quality Reduction in Public and Residential Premises","authors":"V. P. Malyshev, O. V. Vinogradov, I. A. Rodionov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-50-59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-50-59","url":null,"abstract":"T is article presents the characteristics of hazardous chemicals that can be found in public and residential premises, considers possible sources of release of hazardous chemicals into the indoor air environment, considers carbon dioxide as an additional factor in the deterioration of indoor air quality.","PeriodicalId":475745,"journal":{"name":"Problemy analiza riska","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135187184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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