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The Impact of Health Information and Communication Technology on Clinical Quality, Productivity, and Workers 卫生信息和通信技术对临床质量、生产力和工作人员的影响
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-04 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-080921-101909
Ari Bronsoler, J. Doyle, J. Van Reenen
The adoption of health information and communication technology (HICT) has surged over the past two decades. We survey the medical and economic literature on HICT adoption and its impact on clinical outcomes, productivity, and the health care workforce. We find that HICT improves clinical outcomes and lowers health care costs; however, ( a) the effects are modest so far, ( b) it takes time for these effects to materialize, and ( c ) there is much variation in the impact. More evidence on the causal effects of HICT on productivity is needed to improve our analytical understanding and to guide further adoption. There is little econometric work directly investigating the impact of HICT on labor market outcomes, but the existing literature suggests that there are no substantial negative effects on employment and earnings. Overall, although health care is in many ways exceptional, we are struck by the similarities of our conclusions to the wider findings on the relationship between productivity and information and communication technologies, which stress the importance of complementary factors (e.g., management and skills) in determining the impact of these new technologies. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 14 is August 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
在过去的二十年里,卫生信息和通信技术(HICT)的采用率激增。我们调查了有关HICT采用及其对临床结果、生产力和医护人员的影响的医学和经济文献。我们发现HICT改善了临床结果,降低了医疗保健成本;然而,(a)到目前为止,影响不大,(b)这些影响需要时间才能实现,(c)影响存在很大差异。需要更多关于HICT对生产力因果影响的证据,以提高我们的分析理解并指导进一步采用。很少有计量经济学工作直接调查HICT对劳动力市场结果的影响,但现有文献表明,对就业和收入没有实质性的负面影响。总的来说,尽管医疗保健在许多方面都是例外,但我们的结论与关于生产力与信息和通信技术之间关系的更广泛研究结果的相似之处让我们感到震惊,这些研究结果强调了互补因素(如管理和技能)在确定这些新技术的影响方面的重要性。《经济学年度评论》第14卷预计最终在线出版日期为2022年8月。请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates用于修订估算。
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引用次数: 7
Managing retirement incomes 管理退休收入
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-14 DOI: 10.1920/wp.ifs.2022.0522
Rowena Crawford, J. Banks
In this article we discuss the state of the literature relating to the decumulation of retirement wealth and the management of retirement incomes. On the one hand, life-cycle models that allow for strong bequest motives and for the effects of medical expense risks have been shown to be able to rationalize retirees’ wealth, income, and consumption trajectories. On the other, studies of individual asset choices and portfolio decisions seem to suggest low levels of financial literacy and engagement as well as non-negligible consequences of age-related cognitive decline on financial decision making. We argue that future work should try to reconcile these two sets of conflicting findings into a coherent and holistic evidence base to inform policy, because issues concerning the management of retirement incomes, and insurance against different risks in retirement more generally, will become increasingly important for future cohorts of retirees. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 14 is August 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
在这篇文章中,我们讨论了有关退休财富计算和退休收入管理的文献状况。一方面,考虑到强烈的遗赠动机和医疗费用风险影响的生命周期模型已被证明能够合理化退休人员的财富、收入和消费轨迹。另一方面,对个人资产选择和投资组合决策的研究似乎表明,金融知识和参与程度较低,与年龄相关的认知能力下降对金融决策的影响不容忽视。我们认为,未来的工作应该努力将这两组相互矛盾的发现调和成一个连贯和全面的证据库,为政策提供信息,因为有关退休收入管理和更广泛的退休不同风险保险的问题,对未来的退休人群来说将变得越来越重要。《经济学年度评论》第14卷预计最终在线出版日期为2022年8月。请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates用于修订估算。
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引用次数: 0
Inequality and the Covid crisis in the United Kingdom 英国的不平等和新冠肺炎危机
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-04 DOI: 10.1920/wp.ifs.2022.0122
Xiaowei Xu, Thomas Wernham, T. Waters, R. Joyce, Jonathan Cribb, Monica Costa Dias, R. Blundell
We review the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in education, the labor market, household living standards, mental health, and wealth in the United Kingdom. The pandemic has pushed up inequalities on several dimensions. School closures, in particular, disrupted the learning of poorer children, leading to lower attainment. Mental health worsened for those groups (women and younger adults) who had poorer mental health pre-pandemic. Lockdowns and social distancing particularly reduced the ability of younger, lower-earning, and less educated people to work. However, job-support programs combined with the expanded welfare system meant that, if anything, disposable income inequality fell. Rising house prices have benefited people around the middle of the wealth distribution. In the longer term, lower work experience for the less educated and missed schooling could push up some inequalities. Increased rates of working from home seem likely to persist, which may increase some inequalities and decrease others. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 14 is August 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
我们回顾了COVID-19大流行对英国教育、劳动力市场、家庭生活水平、心理健康和财富不平等的影响。这一流行病加剧了几个方面的不平等。学校的关闭尤其会扰乱贫困儿童的学习,导致他们的成绩下降。大流行前心理健康状况较差的群体(妇女和年轻人)的心理健康状况恶化。封锁和保持社交距离尤其降低了年轻、收入较低、受教育程度较低的人的工作能力。然而,就业支持计划与扩大的福利制度相结合,意味着可支配收入不平等(如果有的话)下降了。不断上涨的房价使处于财富分配中间的人群受益。从长远来看,受教育程度较低和失学的人工作经验较低可能会加剧一些不平等。在家办公比例的上升似乎可能会持续下去,这可能会增加一些不平等,减少另一些不平等。《经济学年度评论》第14卷的最终在线出版日期预计为2022年8月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 25
The Econometric Model for Causal Policy Analysis. 因果政策分析的计量经济学模型。
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-015456
James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto

This paper discusses the econometric model of causal policy analysis and two alternative frameworks that are popular in statistics and computer science. By employing the alternative frameworks uncritically, economists ignore the substantial advantages of an econometric approach, resulting in less informative analyses of economic policy. We show that the econometric approach to causality enables economists to characterize and analyze a wider range of policy problems than alternative approaches.

本文讨论了因果政策分析的计量经济学模型以及在统计学和计算机科学中流行的两种替代框架。通过不加批判地使用替代框架,经济学家忽略了计量经济学方法的实质性优势,导致对经济政策的信息分析较少。我们表明,因果关系的计量经济学方法使经济学家能够比其他方法更广泛地描述和分析政策问题。
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引用次数: 8
The Great Divide: Education, Despair, and Death. 巨大的鸿沟:教育、绝望和死亡。
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29241
A. Case, A. Deaton
Deaths of despair, morbidity and emotional distress continue to rise in the US, largely borne by those without a college degree, the majority of American adults, for many of whom the economy and society are no longer delivering. Concurrently, all-cause mortality in the US is diverging by education in a way not seen in other rich countries. We review the rising prevalence of pain, despair, and suicide among those without a BA. Pain and despair created a baseline demand for opioids, but the escalation of addiction came from pharma and its political enablers. We examine the "politics of despair," how less-educated people have abandoned and been abandoned by the Democratic Party. While healthier states once voted Republican in presidential elections, now the less-healthy states do. We review deaths during COVID, finding mortality in 2020 replicated existing relative mortality differences between those with and without college degrees.
在美国,绝望、发病和情绪困扰的死亡人数继续上升,主要由没有大学学历的人承担,其中大多数是美国成年人,对他们中的许多人来说,经济和社会已经无法提供帮助。与此同时,美国的全因死亡率因教育而异,这是其他富裕国家所没有的。我们回顾了在没有BA的人群中,疼痛、绝望和自杀的患病率不断上升。疼痛和绝望创造了对阿片类药物的基线需求,但成瘾的升级来自制药及其政治推动者。我们审视“绝望政治”,即受教育程度较低的人是如何被民主党抛弃和抛弃的。虽然健康的州曾经在总统选举中投票给共和党,但现在不太健康的州却投票给了共和党。我们回顾了新冠肺炎期间的死亡人数,发现2020年的死亡率复制了有大学学历和没有大学学历的人之间现有的相对死亡率差异。
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引用次数: 27
Regression Discontinuity Designs 回归不连续设计
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-021409
M. D. Cattaneo, J. Escanciano
The regression discontinuity (RD) design is one of the most widely used nonexperimental methods for causal inference and program evaluation. Over the last two decades, statistical and econometric methods for RD analysis have expanded and matured, and there is now a large number of methodological results for RD identification, estimation, inference, and validation. We offer a curated review of this methodological literature organized around the two most popular frameworks for the analysis and interpretation of RD designs: the continuity framework and the local randomization framework. For each framework, we discuss three main topics: ( a) designs and parameters, focusing on different types of RD settings and treatment effects of interest; ( b) estimation and inference, presenting the most popular methods based on local polynomial regression and methods for the analysis of experiments, as well as refinements, extensions, and alternatives; and ( c) validation and falsification, summarizing an array of mostly empirical approaches to support the validity of RD designs in practice.
回归不连续性(RD)设计是用于因果推理和程序评估的最广泛使用的非实验方法之一。在过去的二十年里,用于RD分析的统计和计量经济学方法已经扩展和成熟,现在有大量用于RD识别、估计、推断和验证的方法学结果。我们围绕两个最流行的RD设计分析和解释框架:连续性框架和局部随机化框架,对这些方法论文献进行了精心策划的综述。对于每个框架,我们讨论三个主要主题:(a)设计和参数,重点关注不同类型的RD设置和感兴趣的治疗效果;(b)估计和推断,介绍基于局部多项式回归的最流行方法和实验分析方法,以及改进、扩展和替代方法;以及(c)验证和伪造,总结了一系列主要是实证的方法,以支持研发设计在实践中的有效性。
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引用次数: 23
The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy 宏观审慎政策的国际层面
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-081020-051248
Kristin J. Forbes
Countries are making more active use of macroprudential tools than in the past with the goal of improving the resilience of their broader financial systems. A growing body of evidence suggests that these tools can accomplish specific domestic goals and should reduce a country's vulnerability to many domestic and international shocks. The evidence also suggests, however, that these policies are not an elixir. They will not insulate economies from volatility, and they generate leakages to the nonbank financial system and spillovers through international borrowing, lending, and other cross-border exposures. Some of these unintended consequences can mitigate the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and generate new vulnerabilities and risks. The COVID-19 crisis provides a lens to evaluate the effectiveness of current macroprudential regulations during a period of extreme market volatility and economic stress. The experience to date suggests that macroprudential tools provide some benefits and should remain a focus of macroeconomic policy, but with realistic expectations about what they can accomplish.
各国正比以往更积极地使用宏观审慎工具,以提高其更广泛金融体系的弹性。越来越多的证据表明,这些工具可以实现具体的国内目标,并应减少一个国家对许多国内和国际冲击的脆弱性。然而,证据也表明,这些政策并非灵丹妙药。它们不会使经济免受波动的影响,而且会对非银行金融体系造成泄漏,并通过国际借贷和其他跨境风险敞口产生溢出效应。其中一些意想不到的后果可能会降低宏观审慎政策的有效性,并产生新的脆弱性和风险。2019冠状病毒病危机为在市场极端波动和经济压力时期评估当前宏观审慎监管的有效性提供了一个视角。迄今为止的经验表明,宏观审慎工具提供了一些好处,应该继续成为宏观经济政策的重点,但对它们能够实现的目标要抱有现实的期望。
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引用次数: 0
The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation 金融投机的宏观经济学
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-092120-050543
Alp Simsek
I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and speculative bubbles. Leverage can substantially inflate speculative bubbles, and leverage limits depend on perceived downside risks. Shifts in beliefs about downside tail scenarios can explain the emergence and the collapse of leveraged speculative bubbles. Speculative bubbles are related to rational bubbles, but they match better the empirical evidence on the predictability of asset returns. Even without short-selling constraints, speculation induces procyclical asset valuation. When speculation affects the price of aggregate assets, it also influences macroeconomic outcomes such as aggregate consumption, investment, and output. Speculation in the boom years reduces asset prices, aggregate demand, and output in the subsequent recession. Macroprudential policies that restrict speculation in the boom can improve macroeconomic stability and social welfare.
我从宏观经济学的角度回顾了由信仰分歧驱动的金融投机的文献。为了强调统一的主题,我开发了一个程式化的宏观经济模型,其中嵌入了几个机制。由于卖空限制,投机行为可能导致估值过高和投机泡沫。杠杆可以极大地吹大投机泡沫,而杠杆限制取决于预期的下行风险。对下行尾部情景信念的转变,可以解释杠杆投机泡沫的出现和破灭。投机泡沫与理性泡沫相关,但它们更符合有关资产回报可预测性的经验证据。即使没有卖空限制,投机也会引发顺周期资产估值。当投机行为影响总资产的价格时,它也会影响宏观经济结果,如总消费、投资和产出。繁荣时期的投机行为降低了资产价格、总需求和随后衰退时期的产出。在繁荣时期限制投机的宏观审慎政策可以改善宏观经济稳定性和社会福利。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy 不确定性对市场和政策的溢出效应
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-082020-054645
Lars Peter Hansen
We live in a world filled with uncertainty. In this essay, I show that featuring this phenomenon more in economic analyses adds to our understanding of how financial markets work and how best to design prudent economic policy. This essay explores methods that allow for a broader conceptualization of uncertainty than is typical in economic investigations. These methods draw on insights from decision theory to engage in uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty quantification in economics differs from uncertainty quantification in most sciences because there is uncertainty from the perspective both of an external observer and of people and enterprises within the model. I illustrate these methods in two example economies in which the understanding of long-term growth is limited. One example looks at uncertainty ramifications for fluctuations in financial markets, and the other considers the prudent design of policy when the quantitative magnitude of climate change and its impact on economic opportunities are unknown.
我们生活在一个充满不确定性的世界。在这篇文章中,我表明,在经济分析中更多地体现这一现象,有助于我们理解金融市场的运作方式,以及如何最好地设计审慎的经济政策。本文探讨的方法允许不确定性概念化比典型的经济调查更广泛。这些方法借鉴决策理论的见解,从事不确定性量化和敏感性分析。经济学中的不确定性量化不同于大多数科学中的不确定性量化,因为从外部观察者和模型内的人和企业的角度来看,都存在不确定性。我用两个对长期增长理解有限的经济体的例子来说明这些方法。一个例子着眼于金融市场波动的不确定性后果,另一个例子则考虑在气候变化的数量大小及其对经济机会的影响未知的情况下谨慎设计政策。
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引用次数: 0
Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey 金融网络中的系统性风险:一项调查
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-083120-111540
Matthew O. Jackson,Agathe Pernoud
We provide an overview of the relationship between financial networks and systemic risk. We present a taxonomy of different types of systemic risk, differentiating between direct externalities between financial organizations (e.g., defaults, correlated portfolios, fire sales), and perceptions and feedback effects (e.g., bank runs, credit freezes). We also discuss optimal regulation and bailouts, measurements of systemic risk and financial centrality, choices by banks regarding their portfolios and partnerships, and the changing nature of financial networks.
我们概述了金融网络和系统性风险之间的关系。我们提出了不同类型系统风险的分类,区分了金融组织之间的直接外部性(例如,违约、相关投资组合、甩卖),以及感知和反馈效应(例如,银行挤兑、信贷冻结)。我们还讨论了最优监管和救助,系统风险和金融中心的测量,银行对其投资组合和合作伙伴的选择,以及金融网络不断变化的性质。
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引用次数: 0
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Annual Review of Economics
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