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On the limits of free trade in a Cournot world: When are restrictions on trade beneficial? 论古诺世界中自由贸易的局限性:什么时候限制贸易是有益的?
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-20 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12619
Rabah Amir, Jim Y. Jin, Michael Troege

This paper examines marginal deviations from free trade in an asymmetric Cournot world. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which: (i) small import tariffs, (ii) export subsidies, (iii) production subsidies and (iv) consumption taxes increase country-level as well as world social welfare and consumer surplus. We find that free trade is generally not optimal: some countries' tariffs or subsidies can always improve world welfare. Every country's export subsidy raises the average of world social welfare and consumer surplus. Finally, we rank the different policies and show that production subsidies are most likely to raise world social welfare, followed by export subsidies and then import tariffs, whereas consumption taxes never do.

本文考察了不对称古诺世界中自由贸易的边际偏差。我们提供了必要和充分的条件,在这些条件下:(i)低进口关税,(ii)出口补贴,(iii)生产补贴和(iv)消费税增加国家和世界社会福利和消费者剩余。我们发现自由贸易通常不是最优的:一些国家的关税或补贴总能改善世界福利。各国的出口补贴提高了世界社会福利和消费者剩余的平均水平。最后,我们对不同的政策进行了排名,并表明生产补贴最有可能提高世界社会福利,其次是出口补贴,然后是进口关税,而消费税从来没有。
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引用次数: 2
Export conditions in small countries and their effects on domestic markets 小国的出口状况及其对国内市场的影响
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-20 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12621
Martin Alfaro, Frederic Warzynski

In a small country's industries, it is common that both small and large firms export a significant share of their total production. How does better export access affect the domestic market when this occurs? Incorporating investments in quality that require fixed outlays and increase a variety's appeal in all countries, we show that an export shock entails two opposing mechanisms. On the one hand, it induces quality upgrades that raise the domestic market share of large firms. On the other hand, it fosters entry of small firms, making large firms lose domestic market share and downgrade quality. Using Danish data, we show that small firms in some industries are so heavily export-oriented that better export opportunities reallocate domestic market share towards the least productive domestic firms. And while competition by small firms reduces some large firms' domestic markups, it also leads some to downgrade quality and suffer a substantial fall in profits.

在一个小国的工业中,无论大小公司,出口都占其总产量的很大一部分,这是很常见的。当这种情况发生时,更好的出口准入会如何影响国内市场?在所有国家,将需要固定支出和增加品种吸引力的质量投资纳入其中,我们表明出口冲击涉及两种相反的机制。一方面,它诱导了质量升级,提高了大公司的国内市场份额。另一方面,它促进了小公司的进入,使大公司失去国内市场份额,降低了质量。我们利用丹麦的数据表明,某些行业的小企业严重依赖出口,因此更好的出口机会将国内市场份额重新分配给生产率最低的国内企业。虽然小公司的竞争降低了一些大公司的国内利润率,但也导致一些公司降低质量,利润大幅下降。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin adoption and beliefs in Canada 比特币在加拿大的采用和信仰
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12620
Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia

We develop a tractable model of Bitcoin adoption with network effects and social learning, which we then connect to unique data from the Bank of Canada's Bitcoin Omnibus Survey for the years 2017 and 2018. The model determines how the probability of Bitcoin adoption depends on: (i) network effects, (ii) individual learning effects and (iii) social learning effects. After accounting for the endogeneity of beliefs, we find that both network effects and individual learning effects have a positive and significant direct impact on Bitcoin adoption, whereas the role of social learning is to ameliorate the marginal effect of the network size on the likelihood of adoption. In particular, in 2017 and 2018, a one percentage point increase in the network size increased the probability of adoption by 0.45 and 0.32 percentage points, respectively. Similarly, a one percentage point increase in Bitcoin beliefs increased the probability of adoption by 0.43 and 0.72 percentage points. Our results suggest that network effects, individual learning and social learning were important drivers of Bitcoin adoption in 2017 and 2018 in Canada.

我们开发了一个具有网络效应和社会学习的可处理的比特币采用模型,然后我们将其与加拿大银行2017年和2018年比特币综合调查的独特数据联系起来。该模型确定了比特币采用的概率如何取决于:(i)网络效应,(ii)个人学习效应和(iii)社会学习效应。在考虑信念的内生性后,我们发现网络效应和个人学习效应对比特币的采用都有积极而显著的直接影响,而社会学习的作用是改善网络规模对采用可能性的边际效应。特别是在2017年和2018年,网络规模每增加1个百分点,采用的可能性分别增加0.45和0.32个百分点。同样,对比特币的信心每增加一个百分点,比特币被采用的可能性就会增加0.43个百分点和0.72个百分点。我们的研究结果表明,网络效应、个人学习和社会学习是2017年和2018年加拿大采用比特币的重要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 1
Limited commitment, endogenous credibility and the challenges of price-level targeting 有限的承诺,内在的信誉和价格水平目标的挑战
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12617
Gino Cateau, Malik Shukayev

This paper studies the cost of limited commitment when a central bank commits to a price-level target path but retains the discretion to re-optimize it whenever the cost of honouring its commitment exceeds a tolerance threshold. Such discretion undermines the credibility of the price-level target path and weakens its effectiveness to stabilize the economy. Endogenous target resets are more costly than exogenous target re-optimizations and can give rise to multiple equilibria, including a low credibility equilibrium with frequent target resets and high volatility. Canadian data suggest that price-level target resets could be quite frequent in practice.

本文研究了当中央银行承诺价格水平目标路径,但在履行其承诺的成本超过容忍阈值时保留重新优化该路径的自由裁量权时,有限承诺的成本。这种自由裁量破坏了价格水平目标路径的可信度,削弱了其稳定经济的有效性。内源性目标重置比外源性目标再优化成本更高,并可能产生多重均衡,包括目标重置频繁和波动性高的低可信度均衡。加拿大的数据表明,在实践中,价格水平目标的重置可能相当频繁。
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引用次数: 1
Community attachment, job loss and regional labour mobility in Canada: Evidence from the Great Recession 加拿大的社区依恋、失业和地区劳动力流动:来自大衰退的证据
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12616
Derek Messacar

Labour mobility is an important mechanism to equilibrate regional differences in labour market conditions. Yet, little is known about underlying differences between individuals that explain why some stay in place during times of economic hardship while others in objectively similar situations choose to leave. Using a novel dataset comprising 59,974 respondents of a national community health survey from Canada linked to their administrative tax records, this paper provides new insights into this important issue. Specifically, I investigate the extent to which individuals' objective and subjective ties to their local communities mitigate or exacerbate the decision to relocate following an exogenous job separation. To credibly identify this effect, I exploit variation in regional employment conditions over time caused by construction industry shocks during the Great Recession, based on an instrumental variables approach. The results indicate that job loss increases the likelihood of migrating within the same province by approximately 1.4 to 2.3 percentage points among men. Moreover, this effect is driven primarily by individuals with low sense of community belonging, which indicates “push and pull” between the need to relocate for work and the desire to stay near family and friends.

劳动力流动是平衡劳动力市场条件区域差异的重要机制。然而,人们对个人之间的潜在差异知之甚少,这些差异解释了为什么一些人在经济困难时期留在原地,而另一些人在客观上类似的情况下选择离开。本文使用了一个新的数据集,该数据集包括来自加拿大的全国社区健康调查的59,974名受访者,并与他们的行政税收记录相关联,为这一重要问题提供了新的见解。具体来说,我调查了个人与当地社区的客观和主观联系在多大程度上减轻或加剧了外源性工作分离后重新安置的决定。为了可靠地确定这种影响,我基于工具变量方法,利用大衰退期间建筑业冲击引起的区域就业条件随时间的变化。结果表明,失业增加了同一省份内男性迁移的可能性约1.4至2.3个百分点。此外,这种效应主要是由社区归属感较低的个人驱动的,这表明在工作需要和希望留在家人和朋友附近之间的“推拉”。
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引用次数: 1
Trade creation and trade diversion in deep agreements 深层协议中的贸易创造和贸易转移
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-15 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12611
Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta

Preferential trade agreements have boomed in recent years and extended their reach well beyond tariff reduction, to cover policy areas such as investment, services, competition and intellectual property rights. This paper uses new information on the content of preferential trade agreements to examine the trade effects of deep agreements and revisit the classic Vinerian question of trade creation and trade diversion. Our results indicate that deep agreements lead to more trade creation and less trade diversion than shallow agreements. Furthermore, some provisions of deep agreements have a public good aspect and increase trade also with non-members.

近年来,优惠贸易协定蓬勃发展,其范围远远超出了关税削减,涵盖了投资、服务、竞争和知识产权等政策领域。本文利用有关优惠贸易协定内容的新信息,考察深度协定的贸易效应,并重新审视经典的贸易创造和贸易转移问题。我们的研究结果表明,深度协定比浅层次协定带来更多的贸易创造和更少的贸易转移。此外,深度协定的一些条款具有公共利益方面,也增加了与非成员国的贸易。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of climate change on mortality in the United States: Benefits and costs of adaptation 气候变化对美国死亡率的影响:适应的收益和成本
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-10 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12609
Olivier Deschenes

This paper reviews and extends the recent empirical literature on the impact of climate change on mortality and adaptation in the United States. The analysis produces several new facts. First, the reductions in the impact of extreme heat on mortality risk previously documented up to 2004 have continued up to 2019, consistent with continued investments in health-protecting adaptations to high temperatures. The second part of the paper examines the private and external costs of electricity generation and consumption related to high temperatures, a commonly used proxy for measuring the consumption of adaptation services. Extreme temperatures increase electricity demand in the residential sector (relative to moderate temperatures), but not in the commercial, industrial and transportation end-use sectors. The additional electricity demand in response to high temperatures results in significant external costs due to the release of local and global pollutants caused by the combustion of fossil fuels in order to produce electricity. These external costs, documented for the first time in this paper, are one order of magnitude larger than the private cost of adaptation associated with electricity consumption.

本文回顾并扩展了最近关于气候变化对美国死亡率和适应影响的实证文献。分析得出了几个新的事实。首先,2004年以前记录的极端高温对死亡风险影响的降低持续到2019年,这与持续投资于高温保护健康适应相一致。本文的第二部分考察了与高温相关的发电和消费的私人和外部成本,这是衡量适应服务消耗的常用代理。极端温度增加了住宅部门(相对于中等温度)的电力需求,但不会增加商业、工业和运输终端使用部门的电力需求。高温导致的额外电力需求导致了巨大的外部成本,因为燃烧化石燃料会释放当地和全球的污染物来发电。本文首次记录的这些外部成本比与电力消耗相关的适应的私人成本高出一个数量级。
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引用次数: 0
Piece-rate cuts and ratchet effects 削减计件工资和棘轮效应
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12607
Bruce S. Shearer

I use a quasi experiment, conducted in the field, to evaluate how the workers of an economic firm responded to threats to cut their piece rates. During the study, the piece rate paid to workers was initially set above the regular rate, given working conditions. In a commitment treatment this high rate was paid without any threat of revision. During a non-commitment trial, the high rate was accompanied by a threat from management to reduce the rate if, after two days of work, average earnings were too high. The empirical results display strong ratchet effects. Workers withheld output by 16% under non-commitment relative to commitment. The firm eventually reduced the piece rate from the initial high rate, but left it above the regular rate, giving workers the possibility to extract rents. Workers showed no tendency to restrict output during this phase of the study.

我在实地进行了一项准实验,以评估一家经济公司的工人如何应对削减计件工资的威胁。在研究期间,根据工作条件,支付给工人的计件工资最初设定在正常工资之上。在承付待遇中,这一高费率的支付没有任何修订的威胁。在一项不承诺的试验中,高工资率伴随着管理层的威胁,如果工作两天后平均收入过高,就降低工资率。实证结果显示出较强的棘轮效应。在没有承诺的情况下,工人们的产出减少了16%。公司最终将计件工资从最初的高水平下调,但仍高于正常水平,使工人有可能提取租金。在研究的这一阶段,工人们没有表现出限制产出的倾向。
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引用次数: 0
Asset integration and risk-taking in the laboratory 实验室的资产整合和风险承担
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12615
William G. Morrison, Robert J. Oxoby

We report on a laboratory experiment designed to assess risk preferences in a decision environment where real losses can occur. Specifically, we utilize an asset integration protocol designed to ensure that cash provided to treatment group participants by the experimenter is fully integrated into each individual's wealth. This cash is placed at stake in an incentivized risk-preference elicitation task based on the well-known Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) methodology. Our experimental design allows us to distinguish between the predictions of expected utility and prospect theory. We find that features consistent with expected utility theory, constant relative risk aversion and rank dependent expected utility functions, are insufficient to explain our experimental results. However, preference functions based on prospect theory, accounting specifically for loss aversion, capture the observed behaviour of participants in the experiment.

我们报告了一项实验室实验,旨在评估决策环境中的风险偏好,其中实际损失可能发生。具体来说,我们采用了一种资产整合方案,旨在确保实验者提供给实验组参与者的现金完全融入到每个人的财富中。根据著名的Holt和Laury(2002,2005)方法,这些现金被置于风险偏好激发任务的激励之中。我们的实验设计使我们能够区分预期效用理论和前景理论的预测。我们发现与期望效用理论一致的特征,恒定的相对风险厌恶和等级依赖的期望效用函数,不足以解释我们的实验结果。然而,基于前景理论的偏好函数,特别是考虑到损失厌恶,捕捉到实验中观察到的参与者的行为。
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引用次数: 0
Signalling, screening and costly misrepresentation 信号、筛选和代价高昂的虚假陈述
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/caje.12614
Raymond Deneckere, Sergei Severinov

When misrepresenting private information is costly and each type has a different “natural” least-cost signal or message, the availability of multiple signals has a significant effect on signalling equilibria and on the set of implementable outcomes in a screening context. In particular, welfare losses associated with costly signalling disappear as the number of available signals increases, yet at the same time each type is identified with a high degree of precision in every equilibrium satisfying a dominance criterion. In the screening context, we establish conditions under which the principal can implement an arbitrary allocation profile at a small communication cost. This result helps to explain why employers often prefer to screen applicants via multiple interviews rather than via menus of contracts. We also derive an optimal screening mechanism in such a setting. A surprising property of this mechanism is the absence of exclusion.

当虚假的私人信息代价高昂,并且每种类型都有不同的“自然”最低成本信号或消息时,在筛选环境中,多个信号的可用性对信号均衡和可实现结果集有重大影响。特别是,随着可用信号数量的增加,与昂贵的信号相关的福利损失会消失,但与此同时,在满足优势标准的每个均衡中,每种类型都被高度精确地识别出来。在筛选上下文中,我们建立了一些条件,在这些条件下,委托人可以以很小的通信成本实现任意分配配置文件。这一结果有助于解释为什么雇主通常更喜欢通过多次面试来筛选求职者,而不是通过合同菜单来筛选。我们也得出了在这种情况下的最佳筛选机制。这种机制的一个令人惊讶的特性是不存在排斥性。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique
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