We compare the growth and responsiveness to demand shocks of post-IPO firms and their private counterparts. Using multiple measures of myopia and multiple ways to match IPO firms with private firms, we do not find evidence of myopic behavior by public firms. IPO firms respond more to investment opportunities and have higher productivity in their early public years. Our results on public firms’ sensitivity to growth opportunities hold under several robustness tests, including when we consider firms’ total growth including acquisitions. The results show the importance of matching public to private firms early in their life.
{"title":"Do IPO Firms Become Myopic?","authors":"Vojislav Maksimovic, G. Phillips, Liu Yang","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac054","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We compare the growth and responsiveness to demand shocks of post-IPO firms and their private counterparts. Using multiple measures of myopia and multiple ways to match IPO firms with private firms, we do not find evidence of myopic behavior by public firms. IPO firms respond more to investment opportunities and have higher productivity in their early public years. Our results on public firms’ sensitivity to growth opportunities hold under several robustness tests, including when we consider firms’ total growth including acquisitions. The results show the importance of matching public to private firms early in their life.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46495062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Financial markets have a central role in allocating resources in modern economies. One of the main functions of financial markets is the discovery of information. This information in turn helps guide decisions in the real side of the economy. The literature on the “feedback effect” of financial markets explores this channel. Empirical work tries to identify the informational feedback from markets to corporate decisions. Theoretical work explores implications that this feedback effect has for the equilibrium in financial markets and for economic efficiency. Current trends in information technology under the FinTech revolution change the nature of information processing in financial markets and so may change the nature of the feedback effect. In this paper, I review the main themes of this developing literature and connect them to the current information revolution. I also discuss directions for future research.
{"title":"Information in Financial Markets and Its Real Effects","authors":"Itay Goldstein","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac052","url":null,"abstract":"Financial markets have a central role in allocating resources in modern economies. One of the main functions of financial markets is the discovery of information. This information in turn helps guide decisions in the real side of the economy. The literature on the “feedback effect” of financial markets explores this channel. Empirical work tries to identify the informational feedback from markets to corporate decisions. Theoretical work explores implications that this feedback effect has for the equilibrium in financial markets and for economic efficiency. Current trends in information technology under the FinTech revolution change the nature of information processing in financial markets and so may change the nature of the feedback effect. In this paper, I review the main themes of this developing literature and connect them to the current information revolution. I also discuss directions for future research.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Classic bond pricing links, i.e., centralizes, bond valuation across all maturities by specifying the dynamics of the short-term interest rate. This paper develops a decentralized theory that prices each bond based purely on the near-term behavior of the bond’s own yield. The theory levers the domain expertise of an investor on a particular bond and allows the investor to make pricing and investment analysis on the bond without the shackles of an ambitious centralizing mandate. The theory decomposes the short-term return on a bond with respect to the variation of its own yield. Imposing no dynamic arbitrage on the return decomposition leads to a simple pricing equation relating the bond yield to the market pricing and conditional mean and variance forecasts of the yield’s near-term change. The paper illustrates the theory’s applications in decentralized investment of a single bond and in the construction and investment of decentralized butterfly bond portfolios.
{"title":"DECOMPOSING LONG BOND RETURNS: A DECENTRALIZED THEORY","authors":"P. Carr, Liuren Wu","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac053","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Classic bond pricing links, i.e., centralizes, bond valuation across all maturities by specifying the dynamics of the short-term interest rate. This paper develops a decentralized theory that prices each bond based purely on the near-term behavior of the bond’s own yield. The theory levers the domain expertise of an investor on a particular bond and allows the investor to make pricing and investment analysis on the bond without the shackles of an ambitious centralizing mandate. The theory decomposes the short-term return on a bond with respect to the variation of its own yield. Imposing no dynamic arbitrage on the return decomposition leads to a simple pricing equation relating the bond yield to the market pricing and conditional mean and variance forecasts of the yield’s near-term change. The paper illustrates the theory’s applications in decentralized investment of a single bond and in the construction and investment of decentralized butterfly bond portfolios.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44198734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers
There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics.
{"title":"Comparing Past and Present Inflation","authors":"Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac047","url":null,"abstract":"There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers
We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After explaining the mechanical cause for this divergence, we estimate that, if past relationships hold, the residential inflation components of the CPI and PCE are likely to move close to seven percent during 2022. These findings imply that housing will make a significant contribution to overall inflation in 2022, ranging from one percentage point for headline PCE, to 2.6 percentage points for core CPI. We expect residential inflation to remain elevated in 2023.
{"title":"The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation","authors":"Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac048","url":null,"abstract":"We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After explaining the mechanical cause for this divergence, we estimate that, if past relationships hold, the residential inflation components of the CPI and PCE are likely to move close to seven percent during 2022. These findings imply that housing will make a significant contribution to overall inflation in 2022, ranging from one percentage point for headline PCE, to 2.6 percentage points for core CPI. We expect residential inflation to remain elevated in 2023.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the puzzle of widespread participation in cryptocurrency pump-and-dump manipulation schemes. Unlike stock market manipulators, cryptocurrency manipulators openly declare their intentions to pump specific coins, rather than trying to deceive investors. Puzzlingly, people join in despite negative expected returns. In a simple framework, we demonstrate how overconfidence and gambling preferences can explain participation in these schemes. Analyzing a sample of 355 cases in six months, we find strong empirical support for both mechanisms. Pumps generate extreme price distortions of 65% on average, abnormal trading volumes in the millions of dollars, and large wealth transfers between participants.
{"title":"A new wolf in town? Pump-and-dump manipulation in cryptocurrency markets","authors":"Anirudh Dhawan, Tālis J Putniņš","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac051","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the puzzle of widespread participation in cryptocurrency pump-and-dump manipulation schemes. Unlike stock market manipulators, cryptocurrency manipulators openly declare their intentions to pump specific coins, rather than trying to deceive investors. Puzzlingly, people join in despite negative expected returns. In a simple framework, we demonstrate how overconfidence and gambling preferences can explain participation in these schemes. Analyzing a sample of 355 cases in six months, we find strong empirical support for both mechanisms. Pumps generate extreme price distortions of 65% on average, abnormal trading volumes in the millions of dollars, and large wealth transfers between participants.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper shows that judicial enforcement has substantial effects on firms’ decisions with regard to their employment policies. To establish causality, I exploit a reorganization of the court districts in Italy involving judicial district mergers as a shock to court productivity. I find that an improvement in enforcement, as measured by a reduction in average trial length, has a large, positive effect on firm employment. The cross-sectional heterogeneity of the results suggest that stronger enforcement reduces financing constraints, boosting employment as a result, especially in firms characterized by higher complementarity between labor and capital. Moreover, in the presence of stronger enforcement, firms can raise more debt to dampen the impact of negative shocks and, in this way, reduce employment fluctuations. Consistent with this result, worker-level evidence shows that strong enforcement reduces the likelihood of unemployment.
{"title":"The Real Effects of Judicial Enforcement","authors":"Vincenzo Pezone","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac050","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that judicial enforcement has substantial effects on firms’ decisions with regard to their employment policies. To establish causality, I exploit a reorganization of the court districts in Italy involving judicial district mergers as a shock to court productivity. I find that an improvement in enforcement, as measured by a reduction in average trial length, has a large, positive effect on firm employment. The cross-sectional heterogeneity of the results suggest that stronger enforcement reduces financing constraints, boosting employment as a result, especially in firms characterized by higher complementarity between labor and capital. Moreover, in the presence of stronger enforcement, firms can raise more debt to dampen the impact of negative shocks and, in this way, reduce employment fluctuations. Consistent with this result, worker-level evidence shows that strong enforcement reduces the likelihood of unemployment.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper shows how sustainable investing—through the joint practice of exclusionary screening and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) integration—affects asset returns. I develop an asset pricing model with partial segmentation and heterogeneous preferences. I characterize two exclusion premia generalizing Merton’s (1987) premium on neglected stocks and a taste premium that clarifies the relationship between ESG and financial performance. Focusing on U.S. stocks, I estimate the model by applying it to sin stocks as excluded assets and using the holdings of green funds to proxy for environmental integration. The average annual exclusion effect is 2.79% for the period 1999–2019. Although the annual taste effect ranges from –1.12% to + 0.14% across industries for 2007–2019, the taste effect spread between the top and bottom terciles of companies within each industry can exceed 2% per year. Finally, I estimate and explain the dynamics of these premia.
{"title":"A Sustainable Capital Asset Pricing Model (S-CAPM): Evidence from Environmental Integration and Sin Stock Exclusion","authors":"O. Zerbib","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac045","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper shows how sustainable investing—through the joint practice of exclusionary screening and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) integration—affects asset returns. I develop an asset pricing model with partial segmentation and heterogeneous preferences. I characterize two exclusion premia generalizing Merton’s (1987) premium on neglected stocks and a taste premium that clarifies the relationship between ESG and financial performance. Focusing on U.S. stocks, I estimate the model by applying it to sin stocks as excluded assets and using the holdings of green funds to proxy for environmental integration. The average annual exclusion effect is 2.79% for the period 1999–2019. Although the annual taste effect ranges from –1.12% to + 0.14% across industries for 2007–2019, the taste effect spread between the top and bottom terciles of companies within each industry can exceed 2% per year. Finally, I estimate and explain the dynamics of these premia.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47553040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article shows that lending relationships insulate corporate investment from fluctuations in collateral values. The sensitivity of corporate investment to changes in real-estate collateral values is halved when the length of relationship between a bank and a firm, or its board of directors, doubles. Long relationships with board members dominate relationships with the firm in dampening the collateral channel. Moreover, lending relationships with directors in their personal capacity insulate corporate investment over and above corporate relationships. Our findings support theories where collateral and private information are substitutes in mitigating credit frictions over the cycle and show that lending relationships are more multi-faceted than previously thought.
{"title":"Lending Relationships and the Collateral Channel","authors":"Gareth Anderson, Saleem Bahaj, Matthieu Chavaz, Angus Foulis, Gabor Pinter","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac041","url":null,"abstract":"This article shows that lending relationships insulate corporate investment from fluctuations in collateral values. The sensitivity of corporate investment to changes in real-estate collateral values is halved when the length of relationship between a bank and a firm, or its board of directors, doubles. Long relationships with board members dominate relationships with the firm in dampening the collateral channel. Moreover, lending relationships with directors in their personal capacity insulate corporate investment over and above corporate relationships. Our findings support theories where collateral and private information are substitutes in mitigating credit frictions over the cycle and show that lending relationships are more multi-faceted than previously thought.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper documents new and empirically important interactions between cash-balance and leverage dynamics. Cash ratios typically vary widely over extended horizons, with dynamics remarkably similar to (and complementary with) those of capital structure. Leverage and cash dynamics interact approximately as predicted by the internal-versus-external funding regimes in Myers and Majluf (1984). Leverage is quite volatile when cash ratios are stable and vice-versa, while net-debt ratios are almost always volatile. Most firms increase leverage sharply as cash balances (internal funds) become scarce. Capital structure models that extend Hennessy and Whited (2005) to include cash-balance dynamics explain some, but not all, aspects of the observed relation between cash squeezes and leverage increases.
{"title":"Leverage and Cash Dynamics","authors":"Harry DeAngelo, Andrei S Gonçalves, René M Stulz","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac043","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents new and empirically important interactions between cash-balance and leverage dynamics. Cash ratios typically vary widely over extended horizons, with dynamics remarkably similar to (and complementary with) those of capital structure. Leverage and cash dynamics interact approximately as predicted by the internal-versus-external funding regimes in Myers and Majluf (1984). Leverage is quite volatile when cash ratios are stable and vice-versa, while net-debt ratios are almost always volatile. Most firms increase leverage sharply as cash balances (internal funds) become scarce. Capital structure models that extend Hennessy and Whited (2005) to include cash-balance dynamics explain some, but not all, aspects of the observed relation between cash squeezes and leverage increases.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2022-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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