We investigate the joint optimal risk-management and capital structure decisions of banks when they use contingent-convertible (CoCo) futures contracts to hedge financial-sector risk. In spite of banks choosing significantly higher leverage ratios, their default probabilities drop appreciably while their equity values increase, allowing banks to compete more favorably with the shadow-banking system. Banks’ value-maximizing decision to hedge financial sector risk unintentionally leads to an economy with extremely low aggregate bank default rates across all future states of nature. Thus, CoCo futures offer a powerful microprudential and macroprudential policy tool. That banks choose not to hedge financial-sector risk in practice is consistent with managers internalizing bank bailouts.
{"title":"Optimal Capital Structure and Risk Management Policies of Banks that use CoCo Futures to Hedge Financial Sector Risk","authors":"Robert S. Goldstein, Fan Yang","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad022","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We investigate the joint optimal risk-management and capital structure decisions of banks when they use contingent-convertible (CoCo) futures contracts to hedge financial-sector risk. In spite of banks choosing significantly higher leverage ratios, their default probabilities drop appreciably while their equity values increase, allowing banks to compete more favorably with the shadow-banking system. Banks’ value-maximizing decision to hedge financial sector risk unintentionally leads to an economy with extremely low aggregate bank default rates across all future states of nature. Thus, CoCo futures offer a powerful microprudential and macroprudential policy tool. That banks choose not to hedge financial-sector risk in practice is consistent with managers internalizing bank bailouts.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42966383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We analyze the impact of $40 billion of corporate subsidies given by US local governments on their borrowing costs. We find that winning counties experience a 15.2 basis points (bps) increase in bond yield spread as compared to the losing counties. The increase in yields is higher (18–26 bps) when the subsidy deal is associated with a lower jobs multiplier or when the winning county has a lower debt capacity. However, a high jobs multiplier does not seem to alleviate the debt capacity constraints of local governments. Our results highlight the potential costs of corporate subsidies for local governments.
{"title":"Impact of Corporate Subsidies on Borrowing Costs of Local Governments: Evidence from Municipal Bonds","authors":"Sudheer Chava, Baridhi Malakar, Manpreet Singh","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We analyze the impact of $40 billion of corporate subsidies given by US local governments on their borrowing costs. We find that winning counties experience a 15.2 basis points (bps) increase in bond yield spread as compared to the losing counties. The increase in yields is higher (18–26 bps) when the subsidy deal is associated with a lower jobs multiplier or when the winning county has a lower debt capacity. However, a high jobs multiplier does not seem to alleviate the debt capacity constraints of local governments. Our results highlight the potential costs of corporate subsidies for local governments.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135085697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Are carbon emissions associated with stock returns? Comment","authors":"P. Bolton, Marcin T. Kacperczyk","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad019","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43383004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Panic-based (non-fundamental) spikes in depositors’ attention can be a source of bank fragility in theory, but separating such spikes from underlying fundamentals is challenging empirically. Using online search data, we show that during the Global Financial Crisis, UK banks facing surges in attention respond by increasing retail deposit rates, but only for instant withdrawal deposits. Exploiting variation across brands owned by the same bank (and thus sharing the same fundamentals), we find that banks respond even when surges are not justified by fundamentals. In addition, comparing onshore and offshore deposits by the same brand, we show that bank response is substantially stronger when the lack of deposit insurance and a larger presence of wholesale depositors magnifies potential losses to depositors.
{"title":"Do Banks Worry about Attentive Depositors? Evidence from Multiple-Brand Banks","authors":"Matthieu Chavaz, Pablo Slutzky","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad018","url":null,"abstract":"Panic-based (non-fundamental) spikes in depositors’ attention can be a source of bank fragility in theory, but separating such spikes from underlying fundamentals is challenging empirically. Using online search data, we show that during the Global Financial Crisis, UK banks facing surges in attention respond by increasing retail deposit rates, but only for instant withdrawal deposits. Exploiting variation across brands owned by the same bank (and thus sharing the same fundamentals), we find that banks respond even when surges are not justified by fundamentals. In addition, comparing onshore and offshore deposits by the same brand, we show that bank response is substantially stronger when the lack of deposit insurance and a larger presence of wholesale depositors magnifies potential losses to depositors.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":"180 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136315524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Over fifty countries have introduced regulatory sandboxes to foster financial innovation. This article conducts the first evaluation of their ability to improve fintechs’ access to capital and attendant real effects. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the UK sandbox, we establish that firms entering the sandbox see an increase of 15% in capital raised post-entry. Their probability of raising capital increases by 50%. Sandbox entry also has a significant positive effect on survival rates and patenting. Investigating the mechanism, we present evidence consistent with lower asymmetric information and regulatory costs.
{"title":"Regulatory Sandboxes and Fintech Funding: Evidence from the UK","authors":"G Cornelli, S Doerr, L Gambacorta, O Merrouche","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Over fifty countries have introduced regulatory sandboxes to foster financial innovation. This article conducts the first evaluation of their ability to improve fintechs’ access to capital and attendant real effects. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the UK sandbox, we establish that firms entering the sandbox see an increase of 15% in capital raised post-entry. Their probability of raising capital increases by 50%. Sandbox entry also has a significant positive effect on survival rates and patenting. Investigating the mechanism, we present evidence consistent with lower asymmetric information and regulatory costs.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135276362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Short sellers care about (i) how overvalued an asset is and (ii) when the overvaluation will be corrected. Hence, short selling costs should be higher over horizons when negative information is more likely to arrive. This article presents a model formalizing this intuition and tests the model using the put–call parity condition. Forward shorting costs predict future costs and stock returns, consistent with an expectations hypothesis in the shorting market. Additionally, an upward sloping term structure around earnings announcements increases the probability of a negative earnings surprise, evidence that short selling costs are higher over horizons when negative information is more likely to arrive. My findings suggest that the term structure of short selling costs conveys how long overpricings are expected to persist.
{"title":"The Term Structure of Short Selling Costs","authors":"Gregory Weitzner","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad009","url":null,"abstract":"Short sellers care about (i) how overvalued an asset is and (ii) when the overvaluation will be corrected. Hence, short selling costs should be higher over horizons when negative information is more likely to arrive. This article presents a model formalizing this intuition and tests the model using the put–call parity condition. Forward shorting costs predict future costs and stock returns, consistent with an expectations hypothesis in the shorting market. Additionally, an upward sloping term structure around earnings announcements increases the probability of a negative earnings surprise, evidence that short selling costs are higher over horizons when negative information is more likely to arrive. My findings suggest that the term structure of short selling costs conveys how long overpricings are expected to persist.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135613906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the effect of the composition of the board of directors on the firm’s CEO hiring decision. Using a novel measure of managerial talent, characterized by an individual’s ascent in the corporate hierarchy, we show that firms with non-CEO inside directors tend to hire CEOs with greater managerial skills. This effect obtains for both internal and external CEO hires; moreover, the effect is pronounced when inside directors have stronger reputational incentives and limited access to soft information about the candidate. Our findings demonstrate that boards with inside directors more effectively screen for managerial talent, thereby improving the CEO hiring process.
{"title":"Do Insiders Hire CEOs with High Managerial Talent?","authors":"Jason D. Kotter, Yelena Larkin","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad016","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We examine the effect of the composition of the board of directors on the firm’s CEO hiring decision. Using a novel measure of managerial talent, characterized by an individual’s ascent in the corporate hierarchy, we show that firms with non-CEO inside directors tend to hire CEOs with greater managerial skills. This effect obtains for both internal and external CEO hires; moreover, the effect is pronounced when inside directors have stronger reputational incentives and limited access to soft information about the candidate. Our findings demonstrate that boards with inside directors more effectively screen for managerial talent, thereby improving the CEO hiring process.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44668542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cláudia Custódio, Miguel A. Ferreira, Emilia Garcia-Appendini
We estimate the indirect costs of financial distress due to lost sales by exploiting real estate shocks and cross-supplier variation in real estate assets and leverage. We show that for the same client buying from different suppliers, the client’s purchases from distressed suppliers decline by an additional 13% following a drop in local real estate prices. The effect is more pronounced in more competitive industries, manufacturing, durable goods, less-specific goods, and when the costs of switching suppliers are low. Our results suggest that clients reduce their exposure to suppliers in financial distress.
{"title":"Indirect Costs of Financial Distress","authors":"Cláudia Custódio, Miguel A. Ferreira, Emilia Garcia-Appendini","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We estimate the indirect costs of financial distress due to lost sales by exploiting real estate shocks and cross-supplier variation in real estate assets and leverage. We show that for the same client buying from different suppliers, the client’s purchases from distressed suppliers decline by an additional 13% following a drop in local real estate prices. The effect is more pronounced in more competitive industries, manufacturing, durable goods, less-specific goods, and when the costs of switching suppliers are low. Our results suggest that clients reduce their exposure to suppliers in financial distress.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44746899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marco Ceccarelli, Stefano Ramelli, Alexander F Wagner
Abstract Climate change poses new challenges for portfolio management. In our not-yet-low carbon world, investors face a trade-off between minimizing their exposure to climate risks and maximizing the benefits of portfolio diversification. This article investigates how investors and financial intermediaries navigate this trade-off. After the release of Morningstar’s novel carbon risk metrics in April 2018, mutual funds labeled as “low carbon” experienced a significant increase in investor demand, especially those with high risk-adjusted returns. Fund managers actively reduced their exposure to firms with high carbon risk scores, especially stocks with returns that correlated more with the funds’ portfolios and were thus less useful for diversification. These findings shed light on whether and how climate-related information can re-orient capital flows in a low carbon direction.
{"title":"Low Carbon Mutual Funds","authors":"Marco Ceccarelli, Stefano Ramelli, Alexander F Wagner","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfad015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Climate change poses new challenges for portfolio management. In our not-yet-low carbon world, investors face a trade-off between minimizing their exposure to climate risks and maximizing the benefits of portfolio diversification. This article investigates how investors and financial intermediaries navigate this trade-off. After the release of Morningstar’s novel carbon risk metrics in April 2018, mutual funds labeled as “low carbon” experienced a significant increase in investor demand, especially those with high risk-adjusted returns. Fund managers actively reduced their exposure to firms with high carbon risk scores, especially stocks with returns that correlated more with the funds’ portfolios and were thus less useful for diversification. These findings shed light on whether and how climate-related information can re-orient capital flows in a low carbon direction.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":"126 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136047495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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