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Ambiguity and vagueness in party competition 政党竞争中的歧义与模糊
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231195272
Katrin Praprotnik, Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik
A central theme emerging from recent research on party competition is that political actors sometimes remain deliberately opaque in their communication. This phenomenon has been investigated under labels such as position-blurring, ambiguity, issue clarity or ideological clarity. In this paper we propose a distinction between two concepts that are sometimes conflated in this literature: ambiguity and vagueness. While ambiguity means that there is substantial variance in parties' positional signals, vagueness denotes political statements that are non-committal in terms of the policy action to be taken or the outcome to be achieved. We explore the co-variation of these two dimensions and their relationship to issue ownership and government status using manifesto data produced by the Austrian National Election Study. These data are unique in that they provide detailed positional information as well as information on policy commitment (election pledges). We show that the two dimensions are uncorrelated and have opposite relationships with issue ownership (vagueness positive, ambiguity negative). We conclude that analyses of position-blurring in party competition should take different strategies of non-clarity in party communication into account.
最近关于政党竞争的研究中出现的一个中心主题是,政治行为者有时在沟通中故意保持不透明。这一现象被贴上了立场模糊、模棱两可、问题清晰或意识形态清晰等标签进行调查。在这篇文章中,我们提出了两个概念之间的区别,这两个概念有时在文献中被混淆:歧义和模糊。虽然模糊意味着政党的立场信号存在实质性差异,但模糊意味着在要采取的政策行动或要实现的结果方面没有承诺的政治声明。我们利用奥地利国家选举研究产生的宣言数据,探讨了这两个维度的共同变化及其与问题所有权和政府地位的关系。这些数据的独特之处在于,它们提供了详细的立场信息以及政策承诺(选举承诺)信息。我们证明了这两个维度是不相关的,并且与问题所有权有相反的关系(模糊性积极,模糊性消极)。我们的结论是,对政党竞争中的立场模糊的分析应该考虑不同的政党沟通中的不明确策略。
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引用次数: 0
Party theory of parliamentary debate and the endogenous nature of parliamentary institutions: Theoretical implications from Japan’s diet 议会辩论的政党理论与议会制度的内生性——来自日本国会的理论启示
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231195197
Naoto Nonaka, Hirofumi Miwa
We add new insights to the party theory of parliamentary debate proposed in Proksch and Slapin’s The Politics of Parliamentary Debate by combining a quantitative replication analysis of floor speeches with a qualitative explanation of the endogenous transformation of two institutions mediating elections and parliamentary speech in the Japanese Diet. Although the House of Representatives in Japan used a single non-transferable vote system with particularly strong personal vote-seeking incentives, our analysis based on a new dataset shows that, contrary to the theory’s predictions, the pattern of speech activities among party leaders and backbenchers is close to that of Germany, which has a party-centered proportional representation system. Such seemingly contradictory results, however, can be consistently understood within the scope of the theory if we consider the patterns of endogenous change in the parliamentary system and party organization. These results highlight the potential for further development of the theory.
我们将现场演讲的定量复制分析与日本国会中调解选举和议会演讲的两个机构的内生转变的定性解释相结合,为Proksch和Slapin的《议会辩论的政治学》中提出的议会辩论政党理论增添了新的见解。尽管日本众议院使用了一种单一的不可转让的投票制度,具有特别强烈的个人选票寻求激励,但我们基于一个新数据集的分析表明,与该理论的预测相反,政党领导人和后座议员的言论活动模式与以政党为中心的比例代表制的德国接近。然而,如果我们考虑议会制度和政党组织的内生变化模式,这些看似矛盾的结果可以在理论范围内得到一致的理解。这些结果突出了该理论进一步发展的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Do electoral candidates reflect or select campaign issues? The influence of electoral manifestos on online communication 选举候选人是否反映或选择了竞选问题?选举宣言对网络传播的影响
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231194704
Valentin TZ Berger, Felix Jäger
This article investigates the influence of electoral manifestos on the online communication of electoral candidates. Our study addresses electoral candidates’ conflict between party discipline and individual issue prioritisation. Building on the salience framework, we examine the thematic congruence between manifestos and online communication. Moreover, we test which issues are emphasised during the 2017 German federal election campaign. To this end, we created an original topic dictionary based on party manifestos. Applying the dictionary, we classify 143,969 tweets by 797 candidates. Our analyses demonstrate that manifestos shape the online communication of electoral candidates substantially. The findings show that electoral candidates of left–wing parties focus on core issues over time. Our results not only highlight the authority of party leadership, but also suggest that politicians do not tap the whole potential of online communication.
本文调查了竞选宣言对候选人在线交流的影响。我们的研究解决了选举候选人在党纪和个人问题优先顺序之间的冲突。在显著性框架的基础上,我们研究了宣言和在线交流之间的主题一致性。此外,我们还测试了2017年德国联邦大选期间强调的问题。为此,我们根据政党宣言创建了一个原创主题词典。应用该词典,我们对143969条推文进行了797个候选者的分类。我们的分析表明,宣言在很大程度上影响了选举候选人的在线交流。调查结果显示,随着时间的推移,左翼政党的选举候选人会关注核心问题。我们的研究结果不仅突出了党的领导的权威性,而且表明政治家们并没有充分挖掘在线交流的全部潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Putting partisan influence into political context: How initial policy popularity and party attachment shape the effect of party cues 将党派影响纳入政治背景:最初的政策受欢迎程度和党派依恋如何塑造党派暗示的效果
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231191358
Miroslav Nemčok, Hanna Wass, J. Vesa
Parties and their actions almost always shape the preferences, attitudes, and behaviour of their voters. However, does partisan influence over public opinion apply to all policy proposals regardless of their initial popularity and to all voters regardless of their degree of partisan attachment? This question is addressed in the real-world context of Finland, where the government enacted two reforms at the same time: an initially popular reform extending the age of compulsory education, and an initially unpopular removal of the ‘retirement tube’ for older laid-off workers. An original panel survey asked respondents about their attitudes before and after the government actions, finding that while voters of government parties increasingly tended to support the enacted policies, the magnitude of opinion change depended on voters’ initial policy preferences and party attachment. Strong party attachment led to government voters increasing their support for a reform that they initially opposed. In contrast, those with weaker partisan attachments tended to alter their preferences for an initially popular reform. These findings are relevant for understanding partisan influence over public opinion in a broader political context.
政党及其行动几乎总是影响选民的偏好、态度和行为。然而,党派对公众舆论的影响是否适用于所有政策提案,无论其最初的受欢迎程度如何,也适用于所有选民,无论其党派依恋程度如何?这个问题是在芬兰的现实背景下解决的,芬兰政府同时实施了两项改革:一项最初很受欢迎的延长义务教育年龄的改革,以及一项最初不受欢迎的取消老年下岗工人的“退休管”的改革。一项最初的小组调查询问了受访者在政府行动前后的态度,发现尽管政府政党的选民越来越倾向于支持制定的政策,但意见变化的幅度取决于选民最初的政策偏好和政党依恋。强烈的党派依恋导致政府选民增加了对他们最初反对的改革的支持。相比之下,那些党派关系较弱的人倾向于改变他们对最初流行的改革的偏好。这些发现有助于在更广泛的政治背景下理解党派对公众舆论的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The influence of mass media on the popularity of politicians 大众传媒对政治家受欢迎程度的影响
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231187964
Annelien Van Remoortere, R. Vliegenthart
Politicians compete with each other for votes, political positions and popularity in an attempt to translate their ideological ideas into policy. Due to a lack of face-to-face interactions, voters base their vote mainly on what they see in the media. To measure the influence of media on political success during routine periods, this paper links popularity polls to media coverage of individual politicians. Using automated content analysis on longitudinal newspaper data (2003–2019), the visibility of individual politicians and the used tone was analyzed. We find that media visibility has an impact on popularity. This media effect is especially important for MPs seeing that the function of higher-ranking politicians already affects their popularity without media visibility. A significant effect is also found for tone on popularity scores. We find a negativity bias in which negative news affects the popularity of politicians, whereas positive news does not make a difference.
政治家们相互竞争选票、政治地位和声望,试图将自己的意识形态理念转化为政策。由于缺乏面对面的互动,选民的投票主要基于他们在媒体上看到的东西。为了衡量媒体在常规时期对政治成功的影响,本文将民意调查与个别政治家的媒体报道联系起来。利用纵向报纸数据(2003-2019)的自动内容分析,分析了个别政治家的知名度和使用的语气。我们发现媒体知名度对受欢迎程度有影响。这种媒体效应对国会议员来说尤其重要,因为在没有媒体曝光的情况下,高层政客的作用已经影响了他们的受欢迎程度。语调对受欢迎程度的得分也有显著影响。我们发现了一种消极偏见,即负面新闻会影响政治家的受欢迎程度,而正面新闻则不会产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Survival of the social? Effects of intra-party cooperation on MP renomination 社会的生存?党内合作对议员重新提名的影响
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-29 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231181470
Jan-Hendrik Bucher
Parties are the nucleus of modern parliaments. Therefore it is crucial to understand cooperation and competition within parties. In most parliaments, we can observe some form of cooperation, like cosponsorship. In this paper, cosponsorship is used to identify the relationships of MPs within their parliamentary party group, and to infer whether this relational position has an effect on their reselection. Are better embedded and connected MPs more likely to be reselected? Do peers matter in reselection? This question is also of theoretical interest in the light of competing principals (Carey, 2007). The empirical analysis first replicates the model of MP renomination by Baumann et al. (2017), adding a new data set from the German Bundestag, used to provide the relational independent variables of cosponsorship centrality. The key finding of the analysis is indeed: cosponsorship closeness is a significant predictor of MP reselection and can be seen as a compelling complement to the model by Baumann et al. With cooperation shown to be significant when it comes to renomination, the understanding of peer-induced competition, competing principals theory can be further developed, to aid our understanding of MP cooperation and competition, delegation, agency and collective principals in modern parties.
政党是现代议会的核心。因此,理解各方内部的合作与竞争至关重要。在大多数议会中,我们可以看到某种形式的合作,比如共同赞助。在本文中,共同赞助被用来识别议员在其议会党团中的关系,并推断这种关系立场是否对他们的重选产生影响。嵌入性和关联性更强的议员是否更有可能被重新选中?同龄人在重选中重要吗?鉴于相互竞争的原则,这个问题也具有理论意义(Carey,2007)。实证分析首先复制了Baumann等人的MP重新提名模型。(2017),添加了德国联邦议院的新数据集,用于提供共同赞助中心性的关系自变量。该分析的关键发现确实是:共同赞助的密切程度是MP重新选择的重要预测因素,可以被视为对Baumann等人模型的一个令人信服的补充。随着合作在重新提名方面被证明是重要的,对同伴诱导的竞争、竞争主体理论的理解可以进一步发展,以帮助我们理解现代政党中的MP合作和竞争、代表团、代理和集体负责人。
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引用次数: 0
WhatsApp and political communication in West Africa: Accounting for differences in parties’ organization and message discipline online WhatsApp与西非政治传播:政党组织和在线信息纪律差异的原因
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231188690
J. Fisher, Elena Gadjanova, J. Hitchen
Social media has become central to how political parties plan, organize, and coordinate electoral campaigns in Africa, with WhatsApp increasingly the preferred medium. How, we ask, have African political parties made use of WhatsApp to organize internally during elections, and what explains the approaches they have taken? We argue that pre-existing party institutionalization is the main factor influencing how parties use WhatsApp to organize and coordinate campaign events, and reach voters. Comparing Ghana and Nigeria, we show that more institutionalized parties create formal, hierarchical online structures, with in-group policing of message content. Conversely, less institutionalized parties rely on informal, personality-based online structures with unclear hierarchies and where there is little message discipline. This matters both for the spread of mis/disinformation and inflammatory content online, and for parties’ future organizational strength. In both instances, “digital clientelism” ensures that existing patrimonial structures are replicated online, restricting the empowerment of new political actors.
社交媒体已成为非洲政党计划、组织和协调竞选活动的核心,WhatsApp越来越成为首选媒体。我们问,非洲政党是如何在选举期间利用WhatsApp进行内部组织的,他们采取的方法是什么?我们认为,预先存在的政党制度化是影响政党如何使用WhatsApp组织和协调竞选活动并接触选民的主要因素。比较加纳和尼日利亚,我们发现更制度化的政党创建了正式的、分级的在线结构,并对消息内容进行了内部监管。相反,制度化程度较低的政党依赖于非正式的、基于个性的网络结构,层级不清,几乎没有信息纪律。这对网上虚假信息和煽动性内容的传播以及政党未来的组织实力都很重要。在这两种情况下,“数字客户主义”确保现有的世袭结构在网上复制,限制了新政治行为者的权力。
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引用次数: 0
Islamism, party change, and strategic conciliation: Evidence from Tunisia 伊斯兰主义、政党变革与战略和解:来自突尼斯的证据
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231192393
R. McCarthy
What happens to an Islamist party after moderating its behaviour and ideology? Existing work on Islamist parties has elaborated the varied causes of moderation. Yet, the mixed findings do not capture the full range of Islamist dynamics. This article draws on a multiyear, interview-based study of the Tunisian Islamist party Ennahda to interrogate the process of intraparty change after moderation. Islamist parties face a two-level problem with external and internal trade-offs. I argue that the intraparty characteristics that enable moderation may also contribute to undermining a party’s institutional structure and identity as it responds to an uncertain political context. These findings bring processual evidence from Islamist parties into broader explanations of party change and highlight the ongoing effects of moderation, not just its causes.
一个伊斯兰政党在缓和其行为和意识形态之后会发生什么?关于伊斯兰政党的现有工作已经详细阐述了温和的各种原因。然而,喜忧参半的调查结果并没有反映出伊斯兰主义的全部动态。这篇文章借鉴了突尼斯伊斯兰复兴运动多年来的一项基于采访的研究,以质疑温和后党内变革的过程。伊斯兰政党面临着内外权衡的双重问题。我认为,在应对不确定的政治环境时,实现温和的党内特征也可能有助于破坏一个政党的制度结构和身份。这些发现将伊斯兰政党的过程证据纳入了对政党变革的更广泛解释中,并强调了温和的持续影响,而不仅仅是其原因。
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引用次数: 0
The experience premium and women’s nomination to local elections in South Africa’s African national congress party 南非非洲人国民大会党的经验溢价和妇女在地方选举中的提名
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231190499
S. Farole, Elif Sari-Genc
What explains women’s underrepresentation in first-past-the-post compared to at-large elections? While existing studies emphasize candidate experience or party nomination to competitive districts, we argue that local party selectors are more likely to desire women to have a type of political experience that signals their connection to the national party. To test our argument, we use a novel dataset of over 10,000 local candidates nominated by South Africa’s African National Congress party. In South Africa’s Mixed Member Proportional system, we find that compared to men, women are more likely to be nominated in FPTP elections after having previous experience as PR councillors. Previous PR experience is distinct from other forms of experience such as incumbency, and contextual factors such as pre-electoral intra-party violence do not explain women’s nomination to FPTP seats. These findings contribute to our understanding of how electoral systems impact parties’ nomination of female candidates at the local level.
与一般选举相比,如何解释女性在得票最多的选举中的代表性不足?虽然现有的研究强调候选人经验或竞争激烈的地区的政党提名,但我们认为,地方政党的选择者更有可能希望女性拥有一种表明她们与国家政党有联系的政治经验。为了验证我们的论点,我们使用了一个由南非非洲人国民大会党提名的超过10,000名当地候选人的新数据集。在南非的混合成员比例制度中,我们发现与男性相比,女性在有公关议员的经验后更有可能在FPTP选举中被提名。以往的公关经验不同于其他形式的经验,如在职经历,而选举前的党内暴力等背景因素并不能解释妇女获得FPTP席位的提名。这些发现有助于我们理解选举制度如何影响政党在地方一级提名女性候选人。
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引用次数: 0
Australia: No party convergence where we would most expect it 澳大利亚:没有我们最期待的政党融合
IF 2.7 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1177/13540688231189363
Johanan D. Mussel, Henry Schlechta
Classic spatial theory expects parties to converge on the same ideological position given certain assumptions. Many of these assumptions fail to hold in most countries, which may account for why this prediction frequently fails to materialise. Due to a unique combination of institutions, Australia presents the best chance for the theory to work: all votes must flow to either of the two major parties, parties approximate unitary actors, and elections see turnout as high as any democracy. If convergence should happen anywhere, it should be in Australia, and many argue that Australian parties indeed fulfil this prediction. However, in contrast to much of the literature, we do not find Australian politics to be unusually centrist. Based on five measures of ideology, we do not find convincing evidence that Australia’s party system is any more convergent than any other.
经典空间理论期望在给定一定假设的情况下,各方在同一意识形态立场上趋于一致。许多这样的假设在大多数国家都不成立,这可能解释了为什么这种预测经常无法实现。由于独特的制度组合,澳大利亚提供了最好的机会让这一理论发挥作用:所有的选票都必须流向两个主要政党中的任何一个,政党几乎是单一的行动者,选举的投票率和任何民主国家一样高。如果有什么地方应该出现趋同,那应该是澳大利亚,许多人认为澳大利亚的政党确实实现了这一预言。然而,与许多文献相比,我们没有发现澳大利亚政治是异常的中间派。基于意识形态的五项衡量标准,我们没有找到令人信服的证据表明澳大利亚的政党制度比其他任何国家都更加趋同。
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引用次数: 1
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Party Politics
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