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Selective Migration and Economic Development: A Generalized Approach 选择性移民与经济发展：一个广义的方法
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12779
Narcisse Cha'ngom, Christoph Deuster, Frédéric Docquier, Joël Machado

International migration is a selective process with ambiguous effects on human capital and economic development in sending countries. We establish the theoretical microfoundations of the relationship between selective emigration and human capital accumulation in a multicountry context. We embed this migration–education nexus into a development accounting framework to quantify the effects of migration on development and inequality. Selective emigration stimulates human capital accumulation and income in most origin countries. The effect varies according to the level of development, the dyadic structure of migration costs, and education policies. Emigration significantly reduces the number of people living in extreme poverty.

国际移徙是一个有选择的过程，对派遣国的人力资本和经济发展有模糊的影响。建立了跨国背景下选择性移民与人力资本积累关系的微观理论基础。我们将这种移民与教育的联系嵌入到一个发展核算框架中，以量化移民对发展和不平等的影响。选择性移民刺激了大多数原籍国的人力资本积累和收入。这种影响因发展水平、移民成本的二元结构和教育政策而异。移民大大减少了生活在极端贫困中的人数。
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引用次数: 0
Policy Contagion: What Do We Learn From Financial Reforms? 政策传染：我们从金融改革中学到了什么？
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12777
Nan Li, Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu, Tao Zha

We use financial reforms as a case study to understand the temporal clustering of policy changes across countries, shedding light on the broader phenomenon of global policy contagion. We construct a comprehensive database of domestic financial reforms spanning 90 countries from 1973 to 2014. Using this dataset, we estimate a semistructural model that incorporates key factors identified in the literature. We find that (1) geopolitical influence and cross-country learning drove the global surge in reforms during the 1990s, and (2) reversals of financial reforms in developing countries after the global financial crisis reflected shifting beliefs about their growth effects.

我们以金融改革为案例研究，以了解各国政策变化的时间聚类，揭示全球政策传染的更广泛现象。我们构建了一个涵盖90个国家1973年至2014年国内金融改革的综合数据库。使用该数据集，我们估计了一个包含文献中确定的关键因素的半结构模型。我们发现：(1)地缘政治影响和跨国学习推动了20世纪90年代全球改革浪潮；(2)全球金融危机后发展中国家金融改革的逆转反映了人们对其增长效应的看法发生了转变。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic Flip-Flopping in Political Competition 政治竞争中的战略翻转
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12778
Gaëtan Fournier, Alberto Grillo, Yevgeny Tsodikovich

We study candidates' position adjustments in response to information about voters' preferences. Repositioning allows candidates to move closer to the median voter, but it incurs financial and electoral costs. In a subgame-perfect equilibrium, candidates diverge from the center ex ante if the costs of adjustment are sufficiently large. This allows them to increase the chances of a costless victory when the information is strongly in their favor. Our theory highlights a dynamic of moderation during the campaign stage in competitive elections, as well as a prominent role for minor adjustments made preemptively by the favored candidate.

我们研究候选人的立场调整，以响应选民的偏好信息。重新定位可以让候选人更接近中间选民，但这会产生财政和选举成本。在次博弈完美均衡中，如果调整的成本足够大，候选对象就会事先偏离中心。当信息对他们非常有利时，这使他们能够增加无成本胜利的机会。我们的理论强调了竞争选举中竞选阶段的温和动态，以及受青睐的候选人先发制人的微小调整的突出作用。
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引用次数: 0
Robust Contracting Under Distributional Uncertainty 分布不确定性下的鲁棒收缩
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12780
Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang

We study contract design when the principal has limited information about the output distributions induced by the agent's actions. In a baseline model where only the means are known, we show that increasing affine contracts are robustly optimal. The mean restrictions accommodate a wide range of output distributions, including extreme cases that help establish this optimality. We then extend the analysis to environments with additional constraints on the distributions. Our main result shows that the robust optimality of increasing affine contracts persists even when the principal knows more—for example, that each action induces a distribution with full support.

我们研究了当委托人对由代理人行为引起的产出分布信息有限时的契约设计。在只知道均值的基线模型中，我们表明增加仿射契约是鲁棒最优的。平均值限制适用于广泛的输出分布，包括有助于建立这种最优性的极端情况。然后，我们将分析扩展到对发行版有附加约束的环境。我们的主要结果表明，增加仿射契约的鲁棒最优性即使在主体知道更多的情况下仍然存在，例如，每个动作都会引起一个完全支持的分布。
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引用次数: 0
Bargaining Foundations for Price Taking in Matching Markets 匹配市场中价格接受的议价基础
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12776
Matthew Elliott, Eduard Talamàs

Agents make noncontractible investments before bargaining over who matches with whom and their terms of trade. An agent is a price taker when her investments do not change her potential partners' payoffs. This incentivizes socially optimal investments. Across a variety of noncooperative bargaining models featuring dynamic entry, we show that everyone necessarily becomes a price taker as the discount factor goes to 1 if there is a minimal amount of competition always present in the market. If this condition is not satisfied, dynamic entry need not create enough competition to guarantee price taking even if agents are arbitrarily patient.

在协商谁与谁匹配以及他们的贸易条件之前，代理人会进行非合同投资。当代理人的投资不会改变其潜在合作伙伴的收益时，代理人就是价格接受者。这激励了社会最优投资。通过多种具有动态进入特征的非合作议价模型，我们表明，如果市场上总是存在最小数量的竞争，那么当折扣因子趋于1时，每个人都必然成为价格接受者。如果这个条件不满足，动态进入就不需要产生足够的竞争来保证价格接受，即使代理商有任意的耐心。
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引用次数: 0
ISSUE INFORMATION - JIP 发布信息-跳跃
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12714
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引用次数: 0
Recombinant Innovation, Novel Ideas, and the Start of Nobel Prize–Winning Work 重组创新，新颖的想法，和诺贝尔获奖工作的开始
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12768
John C. Ham, Brian Quistorff, Bruce A. Weinberg

We draw on a recombinant view of innovation, where being in a new location and/or multiple locations leads to exposure to novel combinations of ideas that increase the creativity of top scientists. Using a rich, unique data set we helped assemble, we estimate the empirical relationship between being in a new location and/or multiple locations and the expected interval before an eventual Nobel laureate (ENL) commences their prize-winning work. We find that being in a new location and in multiple locations are substantially and significantly associated with a shorter expected interval before ENLs commence their prize-winning work.

我们借鉴了重组创新的观点，即在一个新的地方和/或多个地方可以接触到新的想法组合，从而提高顶尖科学家的创造力。使用我们帮助收集的丰富而独特的数据集，我们估计了在一个新地点和/或多个地点与最终诺贝尔奖获得者（ENL）开始他们的获奖工作之前的预期间隔之间的经验关系。我们发现，在一个新的地方和多个地方，在enl开始他们的获奖工作之前的预期间隔更短，这在本质上和显著相关。
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引用次数: 0
Life-Cycle Wage Growth and Internal Migration 生命周期工资增长与内部迁移
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12775
Alberto Rivera-Padilla

I document new facts on life-cycle wage growth within three countries: Brazil, Mexico, and the United States. In every case, I find that experience–wage profiles are steeper in rich states. Differences in education and industry mix can account for a large share of the covariance between income and profile steepness in both developing countries, while differences in occupations are key in every case. Using a general equilibrium model, I estimate meaningful productivity gains from inducing migration to places with better learning environment and find that migration costs are important in explaining cross-country differences in life-cycle wage growth.

我记录了三个国家（巴西、墨西哥和美国）生命周期工资增长的新事实。在每一种情况下，我都发现经验-工资曲线在富裕的州更为陡峭。在这两个发展中国家，教育和行业组合的差异可以解释收入和轮廓陡度之间协方差的很大一部分，而职业的差异在任何情况下都是关键。使用一般均衡模型，我估计了通过诱导迁移到具有更好学习环境的地方而获得的有意义的生产率收益，并发现迁移成本在解释生命周期工资增长的跨国差异方面很重要。
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引用次数: 0
The Unemployment-Risk Channel in Business-Cycle Fluctuations 经济周期波动中的失业风险通道
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12773
Tobias Broer, Jeppe Druedahl, Karl Harmenberg, Erik Öberg

The unemployment-risk channel (URC) amplifies an initial contraction through a reduction in consumption demand by workers who fear unemployment. Crucial for this are the dynamics of job separations and firm hiring. In US data, the job-finding rate responds slower to identified macroeconomic shocks than the separation rate, but accounts for a similar share of the unemployment response. We calibrate a tractable heterogeneous-agent new-Keynesian model with endogenous separations and sluggish vacancy creation to match these facts. The share of output fluctuations due to the URC is twice as large as in a standard model with exogenous separations and free entry.

失业风险通道（URC）通过担心失业的工人减少消费需求来放大最初的收缩。对这一点至关重要的是离职和公司招聘的动态。在美国的数据中，与离职率相比，求职率对确定的宏观经济冲击的反应较慢，但在失业反应中所占的份额相似。我们用内生分离和缓慢的空缺创造校准了一个可处理的异质代理新凯恩斯模型来匹配这些事实。URC造成的产出波动份额是具有外生分离和自由进入的标准模型的两倍。
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引用次数: 0
Home and School in the Development of Children 儿童发展中的家庭与学校
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
International Economic Review
Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12774
Francesco Agostinelli, Morteza Saharkhiz, Matthew Wiswall

We develop an empirical framework integrating Child Development and Education Production Function literature. It accounts for classroom and parental influences, skill measurement issues, and cognitive/noncognitive interactions. Both home and school investments shape children's skills by kindergarten, with low-skill children benefiting most from improvements. While classrooms are generally more productive, reducing disparities in home investments is more effective in closing income-related skill gaps. This stems from greater inequality in home investments than in school quality across socioeconomic groups.

我们开发了一个整合儿童发展和教育生产函数文献的实证框架。它解释了课堂和父母的影响、技能测量问题和认知/非认知互动。从幼儿园开始，家庭和学校的投资都会塑造孩子的技能，低技能的孩子从改善中受益最多。虽然教室通常更有成效，但减少家庭投资方面的差距在缩小与收入相关的技能差距方面更有效。这源于不同社会经济群体在住房投资方面的不平等大于学校质量方面的不平等。
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引用次数: 0
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