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THE UNPRECEDENTED FALL IN U.S. REVOLVING CREDIT 美国循环信贷前所未有的下降
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12727
Gajendran Raveendranathan, Georgios Stefanidis
After decades of consistent growth, U.S. revolving credit declined drastically post 2009. We study the Ability to Pay provision of the Credit CARD Act of 2009, a policy that restricts credit card limits, as a contributing factor. Extending a model of revolving credit lines, we find that the policy accounts for 54–60% of the decline in revolving credit. Furthermore, the policy accounts for lower utilization rates despite tighter credit limits and higher spreads despite lower default risk. The policy's goal of consumer protection is achieved for a few consumers with time‐inconsistent preferences; most individuals are hurt.
经过几十年的持续增长,美国的循环信贷在 2009 年后急剧下降。我们研究了 2009 年《信用卡法案》中的 "支付能力 "条款,这是一项限制信用卡额度的政策。通过扩展循环信贷额度模型,我们发现该政策占循环信贷下降的 54-60%。此外,尽管信贷额度收紧,但使用率却降低了,尽管违约风险降低,但利差却提高了,这也是该政策造成的。该政策保护消费者的目标对少数具有时间不一致偏好的消费者来说是实现了,但对大多数人来说却造成了伤害。
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引用次数: 0
UNEQUAL PEACE 不平等的和平
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12725
Ali Kamranzadeh, Charles Z. Zheng
A mediator proposes a settlement between two contestants to avoid a conflict where the cost each contestant bears is inversely related to the contestant's privately known strength. Their strength levels are identically distributed, and their welfares weigh equally in the mediator's objective. However, the optimal proposal offers one contestant much more than it does the other so that the former accepts it always, whereas the latter only occasionally. This unequal treatment improves the prospect of peace by making one contestant willing to settle without fearing that the action signals his weakness that his opponent can exploit should conflict occur.
调解人建议两个参赛者达成和解,以避免冲突,在这种情况下,每个参赛者承担的成本与参赛者私下已知的实力成反比。他们的实力水平分布相同,他们的福利在调解人的目标中权重相等。然而,最优方案对其中一位参赛者的优惠远大于对另一位参赛者的优惠,因此前者总是接受最优方案,而后者只是偶尔接受。这种不平等待遇改善了和平的前景,因为它使一个竞争者愿意和解,而不必担心这一行动表明他的弱点,一旦发生冲突,他的对手可以利用这一弱点。
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引用次数: 0
FRICTIONAL SORTING: THE IMPACTS OF DUAL CONSTRAINTS ON MOBILITY AND HOUSING SUPPLY IN CHINA 摩擦性分拣:中国流动性和住房供应双重约束的影响
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12724
Wenquan Liang, Ran Song, Christopher Timmins

Using an equilibrium sorting model and microdata from China, we evaluate the impacts of dual constraints on mobility and housing supply on workers’ sorting behavior, quantifying the welfare and distributional consequences. Counterfactual simulations show that lowering migration costs associated with institutional restrictions and migrant-specific amenities would increase welfare and reduce inequality by moving workers from inland to coastal regions in China. These impacts depend on the housing supply elasticity in coastal regions. Similarly, the impacts of relaxing housing supply restrictions depend on mobility constraints. Results highlight the policy complementarities between reducing the two kinds of frictions.

利用均衡分拣模型和中国的微观数据,我们评估了流动性和住房供给双重限制对工人分拣行为的影响,并量化了其福利和分配后果。反事实模拟显示,降低与制度限制和移民特有的便利设施相关的移民成本,将使中国工人从内陆地区向沿海地区迁移,从而增加福利并减少不平等。这些影响取决于沿海地区的住房供应弹性。同样,放宽住房供应限制的影响也取决于流动限制。结果凸显了减少这两种限制之间的政策互补性。
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引用次数: 0
PENSIONS, INCOME TAXES, AND HOMEOWNERSHIP: A CROSS?COUNTRY ANALYSIS 养老金、所得税和房屋所有权:跨国分析
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12723
Hans Fehr, Maurice Hofmann, George Kudrna
The article studies the role of pensions and income taxes in determining homeownership. We develop a stochastic, overlapping generations model with tenure choice and heterogenous skill types calibrated to Germany. Then, we simulate alternative income tax and pension policy structures from the United States and Australia, since these developed nations have similar incomes per capita, but highly different homeownership rates. Our results highlight that the pension system and its financing have decisive long‐term effects on homeownership. The latter is even more significant than income tax, where labor and capital income taxation affect homeownership in opposite directions.
文章研究了养老金和所得税在决定房屋所有权方面的作用。我们建立了一个随机的世代重叠模型,该模型具有保有权选择和异质技能类型,并在德国进行了校准。然后,我们模拟了美国和澳大利亚的替代所得税和养老金政策结构,因为这两个发达国家的人均收入相似,但住房自有率却大相径庭。我们的研究结果表明,养老金制度及其融资对住房自有率具有决定性的长期影响。后者甚至比所得税更为重要,在所得税中,劳动所得税和资本所得税对住房自有率的影响方向相反。
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引用次数: 0
HEALTH, HEALTH INSURANCE, AND INEQUALITY 健康、医疗保险和不平等
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12722
Chaoran Chen, Zhigang Feng, Jiaying Gu
This article identifies a “health premium” of insurance coverage: insured individuals are more likely to maintain good health or recover from poor health. We introduce this feature into a prototypical macrohealth model and estimate the baseline economy by matching the observed joint distribution of health insurance, health, and income over the life cycle. Quantitative analysis reveals that an individual's insurance status has a substantial and persistent impact on health. Providing universal health coverage would narrow health and life expectancy gaps, with a mixed effect on the income distribution in the absence of any additional redistribution of income or wealth.
本文指出了保险的 "健康溢价":投保人更有可能保持良好的健康状况或从不良健康状况中恢复过来。我们将这一特征引入到一个原型宏观健康模型中,并通过匹配观察到的健康保险、健康和收入在生命周期中的联合分布来估算基线经济。定量分析显示,个人的保险状况会对健康产生重大而持久的影响。提供全民医保将缩小健康和预期寿命的差距,在没有任何额外的收入或财富再分配的情况下,对收入分配的影响好坏参半。
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引用次数: 1
MIDDLEMEN IN SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM WITH INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE MARGINS 中间商在密集和广阔利润率下的搜寻均衡
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12721
Grace Xun Gong, Randall Wright

We study endogenous intermediation activity, the implied transaction pattern—direct trade, indirect trade, or both—and implications for efficiency. Related papers have agents exchanging indivisible goods or assets, capturing only extensive margins (trade frequency). To capture intensive margins, we incorporate divisibility representing quantity or quality. We characterize equilibrium, show how it depends on bargaining powers and costs, and how intensive margins matter—for example, middlemen with high bargaining power may charge more but offer higher quantity/quality, thus improving welfare. A tax-subsidy policy is designed to achieve efficiency. A monetary version lets us compare money and middlemen and further discuss policy.

我们研究内生中介活动、隐含交易模式(直接贸易、间接贸易或两者兼有)以及对效率的影响。相关论文中,代理人交换的是不可分割的商品或资产,只捕捉到了广义边际(交易频率)。为了捕捉密集边际,我们加入了代表数量或质量的可分割性。我们描述了均衡的特征,展示了均衡如何取决于讨价还价的能力和成本,以及密集边际如何起作用--例如,讨价还价能力强的中间商可能会收取更高的费用,但提供更高的数量/质量,从而提高福利。税收补贴政策旨在提高效率。货币版本让我们可以比较货币和中间商,并进一步讨论政策。
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引用次数: 0
THE IMPACT OF A LARGE DEPRECIATION ON THE COST OF LIVING OF RICH AND POOR CONSUMERS 大幅贬值对贫富消费者生活成本的影响
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12720
Anatoli Colicev, Joris Hoste, Jozef Konings

Using retailer scanner data, we investigate how a sharp and abrupt depreciation of the exchange rate affects consumers' cost of living. We find that the marginal cost of imported goods increased, whereas their retail markups decreased compared to domestic products. There was also a surge in the entry and exit of both foreign and local product varieties post-depreciation. Wealthier consumers, who spend more on imports, are hit harder by higher marginal costs but benefit from reduced markups and increased product diversity, unlike their less affluent counterparts.

我们利用零售商扫描数据,研究了汇率突然大幅贬值对消费者生活成本的影响。我们发现,与国内产品相比,进口产品的边际成本增加了,而其零售标价却下降了。贬值后,外国和本地产品种类的进入和退出也都激增。较富裕的消费者在进口商品上花费较多,他们受到边际成本上升的冲击更大,但与不太富裕的消费者不同,他们受益于加价的降低和产品多样性的增加。
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引用次数: 0
SOVEREIGN UNCERTAINTY 主权不确定性
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12718
Edgar Silgado-Gómez

This article investigates the impact and transmission of uncertainty regarding the future path of government finances on economic activity. Employing a data-rich approach, I introduce a novel proxy that captures uncertainty surrounding public finances, which I refer to as sovereign uncertainty. In an application to Spain, sovereign uncertainty shocks persistently dampen the economy in the medium run, whereas macro-financial uncertainty shocks originating in the private sector induce a negative short-lived response in real activity. In addition, a New Keynesian model rationalizes the empirical results, emphasizing the role of financial frictions and monetary policy decisions in transmitting the effects of sovereign uncertainty shocks.

本文研究了政府财政未来走势的不确定性对经济活动的影响和传导。我采用了一种数据丰富的方法,引入了一种新的代理变量来捕捉围绕公共财政的不确定性,我将其称为主权不确定性。在对西班牙的应用中,主权不确定性冲击在中期内持续抑制经济,而源于私人部门的宏观金融不确定性冲击则在实际活动中引起短暂的负面反应。此外,新凯恩斯主义模型合理解释了实证结果,强调了金融摩擦和货币政策决策在传递主权不确定性冲击影响方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
ADD-ON PRICING OVER REGIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES: EVIDENCE FROM EXTENDED WARRANTIES 地区商业周期中的附加定价:来自延保的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12710
Branko Bošković, Sacha Kapoor, Agnieszka Markiewicz, Barry Scholnick

Add ons are features or services that can enhance the functionality or quality of base goods. They are pervasive. Yet we know little about the behavior of add-on prices over the business cycle. We use 10 years of data from a nationwide Canadian retailer to investigate the local cyclicality of extended warranty prices, a classic add on. We find base prices are acyclical. Warranty prices are procyclical because local stores use warranties to make demand for durable goods less price-elastic. We show add ons amplify responses to national business cycles and study the implications for inflation rate bias.

附加产品是可以增强基本产品功能或提高其质量的功能或服务。它们无处不在。然而,我们对附加产品价格在商业周期中的行为却知之甚少。我们利用加拿大一家全国性零售商 10 年的数据,对典型的附加产品--延保价格的本地周期性进行了调查。我们发现基本价格是非周期性的。保修价格是顺周期的,因为当地商店利用保修降低了耐用品需求的价格弹性。我们发现附加产品会放大对国家商业周期的反应,并研究了其对通胀率偏差的影响。
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引用次数: 0
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE IN INCOMPLETE-INFORMATION BARGAINING: THEORY AND WIDESPREAD EVIDENCE FROM THE FIELD 不完全信息讨价还价中的分歧分割:理论和来自实地的广泛证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12719
Daniel Keniston, Bradley J. Larsen, Shengwu Li, J.J. Prescott, Bernardo S. Silveira, Chuan Yu

This article documents a robust pattern from diverse sequential bargaining settings: agents favor offers that split the difference between the previous two offers. Our empirical settings include used cars, insurance claims, home sale, trade tariffs, a TV game show, eBay, and auto-rickshaws. These even-split offers are more likely to be accepted, less likely to spur exit by the opponent, and more likely to be followed by subsequent split-the-difference offers if bargaining continues. We propose several theoretical frameworks to explain this behavior, including an inference argument under which split-the-difference offers can be viewed as an equal split of the potential surplus.

本文从不同的连续讨价还价环境中记录了一种稳健的模式:代理人偏爱能分割前两次出价之间差额的出价。我们的实证环境包括二手车、保险理赔、房屋买卖、贸易关税、电视游戏节目、eBay 和人力三轮车。这些均分报价更有可能被接受,更不可能促使对手退出,而且如果继续讨价还价,更有可能出现后续的均分报价。我们提出了几种理论框架来解释这种行为,其中包括一种推理论证,根据这种推理论证,均分差价要约可被视为潜在盈余的均分。
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International Economic Review
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