The effects of credit and monetary policy shocks are analyzed using a shadow rate model of the Eurodollar (ED) and Treasury bond markets. This model uses three factors common to both markets and two spread factors that capture the term structure of the rate differential. The results show that the policy initiatives that followed the Lehman default in 2008 were much more effective in restraining risk premiums in banking markets than in the Treasury market and that, besides the shadow policy rate, the shadow ED rate is a useful indicator of the effect of default risk on the economy.
{"title":"Measuring the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the U.S. Banking and Bond Markets at the Lower Bound","authors":"PETER SPENCER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13201","url":null,"abstract":"The effects of credit and monetary policy shocks are analyzed using a shadow rate model of the Eurodollar (ED) and Treasury bond markets. This model uses three factors common to both markets and two spread factors that capture the term structure of the rate differential. The results show that the policy initiatives that followed the Lehman default in 2008 were much more effective in restraining risk premiums in banking markets than in the Treasury market and that, besides the shadow policy rate, the shadow ED rate is a useful indicator of the effect of default risk on the economy.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"251 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We build a two‐country currency union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous growth to assess the role of product market regulation (PMR) and labor market regulation (LMR) for growth and the adjustment to shocks. We show that with endogenous growth, there is no reason to expect real income convergence. Large shocks can lead to permanent changes of output and real exchange rates. Differences are exacerbated by different PMR and LMR. Less regulated economies have higher trend growth and recover faster from negative shocks. Results are consistent with higher inflation, lower employment, and disappointing total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates experienced in more regulated euro area members.
{"title":"Market Regulation, Cycles, and Growth Dynamics in a Monetary Union","authors":"MIRKO ABBRITTI, SEBASTIAN WEBER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13212","url":null,"abstract":"We build a two‐country currency union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous growth to assess the role of product market regulation (PMR) and labor market regulation (LMR) for growth and the adjustment to shocks. We show that with endogenous growth, there is no reason to expect real income convergence. Large shocks can lead to permanent changes of output and real exchange rates. Differences are exacerbated by different PMR and LMR. Less regulated economies have higher trend growth and recover faster from negative shocks. Results are consistent with higher inflation, lower employment, and disappointing total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates experienced in more regulated euro area members.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper studies the long‐term stability of the purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) relation using data for the Netherlands and Great Britain (earlier the Dutch Republic and England) from 1590 until 2020. We begin by investigating the behavior of the real exchange rate in rate‐of‐growth form finding strong evidence supporting long‐run relative PPP. Turning to price levels, we find evidence of mean‐reverting behavior over the whole period with one long‐lived shift in mean between 1788 and 1931. The myriad other factors that varied over this long period that might have affected the stability of the PPP relation do not appear to have mattered.
{"title":"Exchange Rates and Prices in the Netherlands and Britain over the Past Four Centuries","authors":"JAMES R. LOTHIAN, JOHN DEVEREUX","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13213","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies the long‐term stability of the purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) relation using data for the Netherlands and Great Britain (earlier the Dutch Republic and England) from 1590 until 2020. We begin by investigating the behavior of the real exchange rate in rate‐of‐growth form finding strong evidence supporting long‐run relative PPP. Turning to price levels, we find evidence of mean‐reverting behavior over the whole period with one long‐lived shift in mean between 1788 and 1931. The myriad other factors that varied over this long period that might have affected the stability of the PPP relation do not appear to have mattered.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study the effect of forward guidance in a flexible‐price economy in which both the private sector and the central bank are subject to imperfect information about the aggregate state of the economy. When forward guidance is provided, the central bank reveals its current imperfect information and commits to a policy rule that makes future policy conditional on perfect information that is only available in the future. The information provided by forward guidance makes individual prices more responsive to firm‐specific technology shocks, which increases production efficiency at the cost of higher cross‐sectional price variation. The net effect improves social welfare.
{"title":"Forward Guidance under Imperfect Information","authors":"CHENGCHENG JIA","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13202","url":null,"abstract":"I study the effect of forward guidance in a flexible‐price economy in which both the private sector and the central bank are subject to imperfect information about the aggregate state of the economy. When forward guidance is provided, the central bank reveals its current imperfect information and commits to a policy rule that makes future policy conditional on perfect information that is only available in the future. The information provided by forward guidance makes individual prices more responsive to firm‐specific technology shocks, which increases production efficiency at the cost of higher cross‐sectional price variation. The net effect improves social welfare.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142208074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We produce the first measure of Divisia money for Mexico. Various structural VAR identifications with Divisia M4 as an indicator of monetary policy yield responses of production and prices that are in every case at least as sensible as—and generally offer an improvement over—their counterpart specifications with a short‐term offer rate as the indicator. Importantly, we find that our Divisia specifications do not require expanding the model's information set with commodity prices or the real exchange rate for a resolution of the price puzzle. We reach similar conclusions for Mexico to those Keating et al. (2019) arrive at for the U.S. economy.
{"title":"A Divisia Measure of the Money Supply for Mexico","authors":"LUIS FERNANDO COLUNGA‐RAMOS, VICTOR J. VALCARCEL","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13198","url":null,"abstract":"We produce the first measure of Divisia money for Mexico. Various structural VAR identifications with Divisia M4 as an indicator of monetary policy yield responses of production and prices that are in every case at least as sensible as—and generally offer an improvement over—their counterpart specifications with a short‐term offer rate as the indicator. Importantly, we find that our Divisia specifications do not require expanding the model's information set with commodity prices or the real exchange rate for a resolution of the price puzzle. We reach similar conclusions for Mexico to those Keating et al. (2019) arrive at for the U.S. economy.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"317 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142226593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We explore the interactions between banking panics and uncertainty shocks. To do so, we build a model of a production economy with a banking sector. In the model, financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases macroeconomic uncertainty. Vice versa, a shock to macroeconomic uncertainty increases the likelihood of a banking panic. This banking panic channel amplifies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. A countercyclical capital buffer increases welfare by reducing the likelihood of a banking panic.
{"title":"Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty","authors":"JOHANNES POESCHL, JAKOB G. MIKKELSEN","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13193","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the interactions between banking panics and uncertainty shocks. To do so, we build a model of a production economy with a banking sector. In the model, financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases macroeconomic uncertainty. Vice versa, a shock to macroeconomic uncertainty increases the likelihood of a banking panic. This banking panic channel amplifies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. A countercyclical capital buffer increases welfare by reducing the likelihood of a banking panic.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141770314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consider a bank which chooses an asset portfolio and then, upon the public disclosure of the results of a review of its quality, raises funds by offering a repayment promise. We show that increasing the precision of information about the quality of the bank's assets lowers the cost of funding of a sound bank and encourages it to take risk. Maximum stability is reached in an opaque environment. Maximum surplus is reached in an opaque (transparent) environment when the social costs of bank failure are large (small). We examine how these conclusions change under alternative information and contractual conditions.
{"title":"Precision of Public Information Disclosures, Banks' Stability, and Welfare","authors":"DIEGO MORENO, TUOMAS TAKALO","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13194","url":null,"abstract":"Consider a bank which chooses an asset portfolio and then, upon the public disclosure of the results of a review of its quality, raises funds by offering a repayment promise. We show that increasing the precision of information about the quality of the bank's assets lowers the cost of funding of a sound bank and encourages it to take risk. Maximum stability is reached in an opaque environment. Maximum surplus is reached in an opaque (transparent) environment when the social costs of bank failure are large (small). We examine how these conclusions change under alternative information and contractual conditions.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141738482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
CHRISTOPH GÖRTZ, CHRISTOPHER GUNN, THOMAS A. LUBIK
We study the determinants of inventory accumulation in a structural vector autoregression (VAR) framework with news shocks. Specifically, we investigate how news shocks affect two key determinants of inventory movements, namely, rates of return and marginal costs. We establish that inventories react strongly and positively to news about future increases in total factor productivity. We provide evidence that changes in external and internal rates of return are central to the transmission for such news shocks. We do not find evidence for a dominant role of marginal costs.
{"title":"What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs","authors":"CHRISTOPH GÖRTZ, CHRISTOPHER GUNN, THOMAS A. LUBIK","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13197","url":null,"abstract":"We study the determinants of inventory accumulation in a structural vector autoregression (VAR) framework with news shocks. Specifically, we investigate how news shocks affect two key determinants of inventory movements, namely, rates of return and marginal costs. We establish that inventories react strongly and positively to news about future increases in total factor productivity. We provide evidence that changes in external and internal rates of return are central to the transmission for such news shocks. We do not find evidence for a dominant role of marginal costs.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141738226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the equilibria of market‐triggered contingent capital if a bank's asset value is not common knowledge. Using a global game setup with private signals, we characterize the unique equilibrium for the conversion of the market‐triggered contingent capital. The conversion likelihood increases with higher bank leverage, a higher face value of contingent capital, and a greater dilution for incumbent shareholders. We further show that the existence of both a private and a public signal constrains the optimal design of contingent capital for which a unique equilibrium exists.
{"title":"Market‐Triggered Contingent Capital with Incomplete Information","authors":"TOBIAS BERG, EVA SCHLIEPHAKE","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13190","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the equilibria of market‐triggered contingent capital if a bank's asset value is <jats:italic>not</jats:italic> common knowledge. Using a global game setup with private signals, we characterize the unique equilibrium for the conversion of the market‐triggered contingent capital. The conversion likelihood increases with higher bank leverage, a higher face value of contingent capital, and a greater dilution for incumbent shareholders. We further show that the existence of both a private and a public signal constrains the optimal design of contingent capital for which a unique equilibrium exists.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141738229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I investigate the predictive role of the aggregate dividend–payout ratio () for future economic activity. A vector‐autoregression‐based variance decomposition shows that the main driving force of is long‐run predictability of earnings growth, with dividend growth predictability assuming a secondary role. Consistent with this result, long‐horizon regressions indicate that is a significant predictor, especially at intermediate and long forecasting horizons, of future aggregate business conditions. Critically, outperforms several popular equity and bond predictors from the literature. The predictive ability of remains robust in an out‐of‐sample forecasting analysis. Overall, conveys important information about the economy.
{"title":"Does Dividend Policy Lead the Economy?","authors":"PAULO MAIO","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13195","url":null,"abstract":"I investigate the predictive role of the aggregate dividend–payout ratio () for future economic activity. A vector‐autoregression‐based variance decomposition shows that the main driving force of is long‐run predictability of earnings growth, with dividend growth predictability assuming a secondary role. Consistent with this result, long‐horizon regressions indicate that is a significant predictor, especially at intermediate and long forecasting horizons, of future aggregate business conditions. Critically, outperforms several popular equity and bond predictors from the literature. The predictive ability of remains robust in an out‐of‐sample forecasting analysis. Overall, conveys important information about the economy.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141738232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：