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Beyond hazard-induced migration: Dissecting everyday mobilities in response to air pollution and extreme cold events at multiple spatial and temporal scales 超越灾害引发的迁移:在多时空尺度上剖析应对空气污染和极端寒冷事件的日常流动性
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103927
Chang Xia , Anthony Gar-On Yeh , Ziyu Lei

Human mobility can be considered an effective adaptation strategy in response to environmental risks, given that adverse environmental conditions are often temporary and in-situ adaptation may not always be feasible or desirable. Despite its importance, the concept of short-term mobility as a behavioral response to environmental hazards has been understudied in geographies of health and place and behavioral economics. For a comprehensive understanding of how everyday mobilities are used as a risk adaptation strategy, this study avails of a multiscalar approach's ability to examine the influences of air pollution and extreme cold events on origin-destination movements. The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) and modifiable temporal unit problem (MTUP) are analyzed. The results suggest that the scale effects of the MAUP and MTUP are evident from the variations in regression coefficients of the differences in air quality and extreme cold events between origin and destination units. It is also found that the prefecture-level units that include both urbanized city proper and rural countryside, are not an ideal spatial analysis scale. Furthermore, this study reveals that the nexus of air quality differences and short-term movements is significantly impacted by changes in temporal scales. Our results offer fresh evidence on the decision-making process underlying mobility as an adaptation strategy to air pollution and cold events.

鉴于不利的环境条件往往是暂时的,原地适应可能并不总是可行或可取的,因此人类流动可被视为应对环境风险的一种有效适应策略。尽管短期流动作为一种应对环境危害的行为方式非常重要,但健康地理学、地方地理学和行为经济学对这一概念的研究还很不够。为了全面了解日常流动是如何被用作一种风险适应策略的,本研究利用了多区方法来研究空气污染和极端寒冷事件对出发地-目的地流动的影响。研究分析了可变区域单位问题(MAUP)和可变时间单位问题(MTUP)。结果表明,从出发地和目的地单位之间空气质量和极端寒冷事件差异的回归系数变化来看,MAUP 和 MTUP 的规模效应非常明显。研究还发现,包括城市化城市和农村的地级单位并不是理想的空间分析尺度。此外,本研究还揭示了空气质量差异与短期流动之间的关系会受到时间尺度变化的显著影响。我们的研究结果为流动作为适应空气污染和寒冷事件策略的决策过程提供了新的证据。
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引用次数: 0
How does the built environment affect the usage efficiency of dockless-shared bicycle? An exploration of time-varying nonlinear relationships 建筑环境如何影响无桩共享单车的使用效率?对时变非线性关系的探索
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103908
Yantang Zhang , Xiaowei Hu , Hui Wang , Shi An

The imbalance in Dockless Bike Sharing (DBS) systems is a major concern for planners, causing a significant drop in utilization efficiency. However, limited research quantifies DBS usage efficiency from a supply-demand perspective, also, the understanding of the nonlinear relationship between the built environment and DBS utilization efficiency from the time dimension is lacking, leading to biased assessments and the losses of flexible and effective DBS rebalancing strategies. Therefore, this study quantifies the efficiency of DBS usage from a supply-demand perspective by calculating the average usage interval of DBS facilities within urban subzones, termed duration of stopping usage (DSU), and employs emerging eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) technology to reveal the time-varying nonlinear impact of the built environment on DSU. The results show that the relative importance of transit accessibility, land use mix entropy and road network density remains stable in the time dimension. The time non-stationarity of the nonlinear relationship between these variables and DSU is primarily manifested in dynamic shifts of thresholds. Notably, the time-varying nature of the relative importance is particularly prominent for variables related to land use facilities. Moreover, the time non-stationarity of the nonlinear relationship is more complex, manifesting not only in threshold shifts but also in changes in correlation. We also propose several spatial transfer methods for DBS facilities, offering fresh insights for crafting flexible and adaptive DBS rebalancing strategies. These findings enhance the interpretability of the inconsistent impact of the built environment on DBS utilization efficiency and provide valuable knowledge for scientific management decisions regarding DBS rebalancing.

无桩共享单车(DBS)系统的不平衡是规划者关注的一个主要问题,它会导致使用效率大幅下降。然而,从供需角度量化无桩共享单车使用效率的研究十分有限,而且缺乏从时间维度理解建筑环境与无桩共享单车使用效率之间的非线性关系,导致评估结果有失偏颇,无法制定灵活有效的无桩共享单车再平衡策略。因此,本研究从供需角度出发,通过计算城市子区内 DBS 设施的平均使用间隔(即停止使用时间(DSU))来量化 DBS 的使用效率,并采用新兴的可扩展人工智能(XAI)技术来揭示建筑环境对 DSU 的时变非线性影响。结果表明,公交可达性、土地利用组合熵和路网密度的相对重要性在时间维度上保持稳定。这些变量与 DSU 之间的非线性关系在时间上的非平稳性主要体现在临界值的动态变化上。值得注意的是,土地利用设施相关变量的相对重要性的时变性尤为突出。此外,非线性关系的时间非平稳性更为复杂,不仅表现为临界值的移动,还表现为相关性的变化。我们还提出了几种 DBS 设施的空间转移方法,为制定灵活、适应性强的 DBS 再平衡策略提供了新的见解。这些发现提高了建筑环境对 DBS 利用效率的不一致性影响的可解释性,并为 DBS 重新平衡的科学管理决策提供了宝贵的知识。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking the nonlinear Nexus: Accessibility of emergency resource and resident participation in flood response 解开非线性联系:应急资源的可及性与居民参与洪灾响应
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103926
Huaxiong Jiang , Yuxiao Wang , Wei Ma , Jiao'’e Wang , Mengmeng Zhang

Flood disasters threaten urban sustainability, requiring community involvement and resource allocation. However, research on the link between emergency resource accessibility and residents' participation willingness in flood response is lacking. To fill this gap, we surveyed 1351 respondents in Zhengzhou and used the Community Capitals Framework to explore their nonlinear associations. Results show that: 1) Perceived accessibility of emergency resources, especially for rescue forces and medical facilities, typically has a more significant impact on residents' participation willingness in flood response compared to objectively measured accessibility, which includes communication facilities, emergency administration forces, and fire station. 2) Emergency resource accessibility, both perceived and objectively measured, displays nonlinear correlations with residents' participation willingness, with objective measures revealing more pronounced patterns such as (inverted) U-shapes or approximate linearity. 3) Spatial analysis indicates that in less affected flood areas, perceived and objective emergency resource accessibility strongly boost residents' willingness to participate, while in heavily affected areas, perceived accessibility exerts a prominent inhibitory impact. This study contributes to revealing the intricate, nonlinear link between emergency resource accessibility and residents' participation willingness in flood response, underscoring the importance of tailored flood strategies addressing both subjective perceptions and objective resource allocations for bolstering urban resilience.

洪水灾害威胁着城市的可持续发展,需要社区参与和资源分配。然而,有关应急资源可及性与居民参与洪灾应对意愿之间联系的研究却十分缺乏。为了填补这一空白,我们在郑州对 1351 名受访者进行了调查,并使用社区资本框架探讨了它们之间的非线性关联。结果显示1)与客观测量的可得性(包括通讯设施、应急管理力量和消防站)相比,居民感知到的应急资源可得性,尤其是救援力量和医疗设施的可得性,通常对居民的洪灾响应参与意愿有更显著的影响。2) 无论是感知的还是客观测量的应急资源可及性,都与居民的参与意愿呈非线性相关,客观测量的结果显示出更明显的模式,如(倒)U 型或近似线性。3) 空间分析表明,在洪灾影响较小的地区,居民感知到的和客观测量到的应急资源可及性会强烈提升居民的参与意愿,而在受灾严重的地区,居民感知到的可及性则会产生明显的抑制作用。这项研究有助于揭示应急资源可及性与居民参与洪灾响应意愿之间错综复杂的非线性联系,强调了针对主观感知和客观资源分配制定有针对性的洪灾策略对于增强城市抗灾能力的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Routes with roots: Pedestrian route choices and sense of place of an urban university community 有根的路线:城市大学社区的步行路线选择和地方感
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103943

Understanding how people choose routes in urban environments is essential for effective urban planning. While conventional transportation studies focus on utilitarian decision-making, this research investigates the complex interplay between human-environment interactions and emotional attachments to places, which influence transportation choices. Specifically, we examine the impact of sense of place in pedestrian route choice within a densely populated urban university community. Unlike typical urban settings characterized by clear roads and landmarks, university environments often feature intricate layouts with diffuse pathways, shared spaces, and a lack of clear spatial hierarchies. This complexity challenges conventional spatial knowledge acquisition methods. Individuals navigating such environments tend to rely on socio-sensory wayfinding strategies, developing emotional connections to specific places and routes over time. Consequently, route choices in these contexts may not always be deliberate but rather subconscious and nuanced. Our study focuses on elucidating the impact of the sense of place—a composite of conscious and subconscious perceptions, emotions, and attachments to a location—on daily route decisions. Through structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis, we demonstrate that the sense of place significantly influences route choices within community building complexes, surpassing utilitarian considerations as a primary explanatory factor. These findings underscore the importance of emotional and psychological factors in shaping urban route decisions, offering valuable insights for urban planning and management strategies.

了解人们如何在城市环境中选择路线对于有效的城市规划至关重要。传统的交通研究侧重于功利性决策,而本研究则探讨了人与环境的互动以及对地方的情感依恋之间复杂的相互作用,这些因素都会影响交通选择。具体来说,我们研究了在一个人口稠密的城市大学社区中,场所感对行人路线选择的影响。与典型的以清晰道路和地标为特征的城市环境不同,大学环境通常具有错综复杂的布局、分散的路径、共享的空间以及缺乏清晰的空间层次。这种复杂性对传统的空间知识获取方法提出了挑战。在这种环境中穿行的人往往依赖于社会感官寻路策略,随着时间的推移与特定地点和路线建立情感联系。因此,在这些环境中的路线选择可能并不总是深思熟虑的,而是下意识的、细微的。我们的研究重点是阐明地方感--对某一地点的有意识和潜意识感知、情感和依恋的综合体--对日常路线决策的影响。通过结构方程建模(SEM)分析,我们证明了地方感对社区建筑群内的路线选择有重大影响,其作为主要解释因素的作用超过了功利性考虑。这些发现强调了情感和心理因素在影响城市路线决策中的重要性,为城市规划和管理策略提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
A spatial statistical approach to estimate bus stop demand using GIS-processed data 利用 GIS 处理数据估算公交站点需求的空间统计方法
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103906
Yaiza Montero-Lamas , Rubén Fernández-Casal , Francisco-Alberto Varela-García , Alfonso Orro , Margarita Novales

This study integrates the fields of geography, urban transit planning, and statistical learning to develop a sophisticated methodology for predicting bus demand at the stop level. It uses a Generalized Additive Model that captures non-linear relationships and incorporates spatial dependence, improving traditional methods. It showcases a high predictive capacity with a pseudo R-squared of 0.79 during its validation, ensuring substantial explanatory power for new observations. A large number of variables, including land-use characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and transit supply, are analysed. These widely available predictors facilitate the transferability of the methodology to other urban areas. Transit supply predictor considers the number of annual trips per stop and area as well as the location of stops along the lines that serve them. GIS processing of the data allows the calculation of variables within the areas of influence of each stop, obtained by following the walkable street network. For the case study, the presence of universities, hospitals, and lodgings areas, as well as inhabitants and ratio of bus trips show a positive impact on bus demand. This geo-analysis process employs accurate disaggregated data, such as information on uses in each building, as well as methods for assigning socioeconomic information from local areas to residential buildings. This study highlights the complex relationship between the location of transit network stops, both along the bus line and in terms of geographical proximity, their transit supply, and its surrounding factors. The results indicate that there is spatial dependence for stops less than 1.15 km apart. The developed methodology provides reliable information to transit network planners for decision making. Specifically, this proposed methodology can contribute to designing new routes, optimizing stop locations, and estimating the impact of changes in the transit network or urban planning on bus demand. All these improvement measures promote sustainable urban mobility, consequently fostering environmental and social benefits.

本研究综合了地理学、城市交通规划和统计学习等领域的知识,开发出一套复杂的方法,用于预测车站一级的公交需求。它采用了广义相加模型,该模型能捕捉非线性关系并结合空间依赖性,从而改进了传统方法。在验证过程中,该模型显示出很高的预测能力,其伪 R 方为 0.79,确保了对新观察结果的强大解释力。该方法分析了大量变量,包括土地使用特征、社会经济因素和过境供应。这些广泛可用的预测因子有助于将该方法应用到其他城市地区。公交供给预测因子考虑了每个站点和区域的年出行次数,以及站点沿服务线路的位置。通过对数据进行 GIS 处理,可以计算出每个站点影响范围内的变量,这些变量是通过步行街网络获得的。在案例研究中,大学、医院和住宿区的存在,以及居民和公交出行比例都对公交需求产生了积极影响。这一地理分析过程采用了精确的分类数据,如每栋建筑的用途信息,以及将当地社会经济信息分配到住宅建筑的方法。这项研究强调了公交线路沿线和地理邻近的公交网络站点位置、公交供应及其周边因素之间的复杂关系。结果表明,相距不足 1.15 千米的站点存在空间依赖性。所开发的方法为公交网络规划者提供了可靠的决策信息。具体而言,该方法有助于设计新路线、优化站点位置以及估算公交网络或城市规划变化对公交需求的影响。所有这些改进措施都能促进城市交通的可持续发展,从而产生环境和社会效益。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the relationships among commute, work and life satisfaction: A multiscale analysis in Beijing 探索通勤、工作和生活满意度之间的关系:北京的多尺度分析
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103946

Commuting and working, as important parts of workers' daily life, significantly influence their subjective well-being. However, the complicated interplay among short-term commute or work activity satisfaction, medium-term domain satisfaction and long-term life satisfaction remains unclear. Utilizing the survey data on transportation and well-being of Beijing's residents in 2022, this study explores two assumptions. The first, based on bottom-up theory, posits that a typical commute or work activity may influence domain satisfaction and life satisfaction. The second, drawn from top-down theory, suggests a reverse causality. The findings reveal that life satisfaction can influence domain satisfaction and short-term commute or work activity satisfaction directly. However, the effect from short-term satisfaction to life satisfaction is predominantly indirect, mediating by daily travel and job satisfaction. Compared with travel satisfaction, the relationship between work activity and overall job satisfaction is primarily unidirectional, from the short-term to the medium-term. Moreover, the impacts of commute to work activity satisfaction and of daily travel to job satisfaction are strong and significant, substantiating the spill-over effect theory. This exploration into individuals' commute and work experience offers policy implications for the government and provides insights into enhancing people's quality of life.

通勤和工作作为劳动者日常生活的重要组成部分,对其主观幸福感有着重要影响。然而,短期通勤或工作活动满意度、中期领域满意度和长期生活满意度之间复杂的相互作用仍不明确。本研究利用 2022 年北京市居民交通与幸福感调查数据,探讨了两个假设。第一个假设基于自下而上的理论,认为典型的通勤或工作活动可能会影响领域满意度和生活满意度。第二个假设来自自上而下理论,提出了反向因果关系。研究结果表明,生活满意度会直接影响领域满意度和短期通勤或工作活动满意度。然而,短期满意度对生活满意度的影响主要是间接的,以日常出行和工作满意度为中介。与出行满意度相比,工作活动与整体工作满意度之间的关系主要是单向的,从短期到中期。此外,通勤对工作活动满意度的影响和日常旅行对工作满意度的影响都很强且显著,这也证实了溢出效应理论。对个人通勤和工作体验的探索为政府提供了政策启示,并为提高人们的生活质量提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring and modeling food accessibility by transportation mode 按交通方式衡量和模拟食物的可及性
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103907
Efthymia Kostopoulou , Eleni Christofa , Eric Gonzales , Derek Krevat

Food accessibility has been a subject of growing interest due to its impact on public health outcomes. This paper describes a spatial analysis method to identify gaps in geographic food access and correlate them with a variety of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The proposed food accessibility metric is the square footage of supermarkets that can be reached within 10 min travel time by walking, biking, driving, and 30 min travel time by walk/transit. The spatial analysis is conducted for the centroids of each census tract within a study area, and the approach is illustrated with an application for the state of Massachusetts. Correlations between demographic and socioeconomic explanatory variables and food accessibility are explored using the Gradient Boosted machine learning model. More specifically, the explanatory variables are percent minority population, percent of population in poverty, vehicle ownership, and population density. The spatial analysis shows a strong correlation between food accessibility and population density. The machine learning model is then used to identify gaps in food accessibility for each transportation mode while controlling for community characteristics. The residuals of the model reveal which communities have the lowest food accessibility relative to other similar communities within the state. This research provides a quantitative method to identify communities that have reduced access to food relative to state-wide trends. Lastly, it provides insights for where policy interventions would be valuable for improving food access in addition to recommendations on increasing food accessibility.

由于食物可及性对公共卫生结果的影响,食物可及性日益受到关注。本文介绍了一种空间分析方法,用于识别地理上食物可及性的差距,并将其与各种人口和社会经济因素联系起来。所提出的食物可及性指标是指步行、骑自行车或开车 10 分钟内可到达的超市面积,以及步行/乘坐公共交通 30 分钟内可到达的超市面积。空间分析是针对研究区域内每个人口普查区的中心点进行的,并以马萨诸塞州的应用为例进行说明。使用梯度提升机器学习模型探讨了人口和社会经济解释变量与食物可得性之间的相关性。更具体地说,解释变量包括少数民族人口百分比、贫困人口百分比、车辆拥有率和人口密度。空间分析表明,食品可达性与人口密度之间存在很强的相关性。然后,在控制社区特征的同时,使用机器学习模型来确定每种交通方式在食物可及性方面的差距。该模型的残差揭示了与州内其他类似社区相比,哪些社区的食物可及性最低。这项研究提供了一种定量方法,用于确定与全州趋势相比,哪些社区的食物可及性有所降低。最后,除了就提高食物可及性提出建议外,它还就政策干预对改善食物可及性有价值的方面提出了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring competitiveness of taxis to ride-hailing services from a multidimensional spatio-temporal perspective: A case study in Beijing, China 从多维时空视角探讨出租车对打车服务的竞争力:中国北京案例研究
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103936

As the sharing economy expands in China, the emergence of ride-hailing services has diminished the market share of the taxi industry. As a regulated and publicly convenient service with a dedicated customer base, traditional taxi industry needs to improve its own competitiveness and maintain its market share. However, the specific circumstances under which taxis can gain a competitive edge over ride-hailing services are not well-understood. Aiming to uncover the competitive potential of taxis in the ride-source market, this study proposes a methodology to explore the Competition and Cooperation Relationship (CCR) between taxis and ride-hailing services on a multidimensional spatio-temporal scale. By taking Beijing, China as a case study, we first compare different impacts of Points of Interest (POI) on the traffic volume of taxis/ride-hailing services through Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) models, and explore the corresponding times and locations where taxis/ride-hailing services are more likely to attract passengers. Based on the findings that there are strong correlations between traffic volume and spatio-temporal conditions, we establish the Competition-Cooperation Index (CCI) as a quantitative measure to characterize the CCR and then analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of CCI to identify the times and locations where taxis hold advantages in cooperative or competitive relationship relative to ride-hailing services. Furthermore, we investigate the underlying reasons for these patterns, discovering that CCI has a close connection with land use. The results of our analysis show that taxis exhibit competitive advantages over ride-hailing services under some specific circumstances and can further enhance their competitiveness by proposed targeted measures. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for both industries in formulating growth strategies and for governmental agencies in setting policies.

随着共享经济在中国的发展,叫车服务的出现削弱了出租车行业的市场份额。传统出租车行业作为一种受监管的、拥有专门客户群的公共便捷服务,需要提高自身竞争力,保持市场份额。然而,人们对出租车在何种具体情况下能够获得相对于叫车服务的竞争优势还不甚了解。为了挖掘出租车在客源市场中的竞争潜力,本研究提出了一种在多维时空尺度上探讨出租车与叫车服务之间竞争与合作关系(CCR)的方法。以中国北京为例,我们首先通过时空加权回归模型(GTWR)比较了不同兴趣点(POI)对出租车/打车服务客流量的影响,并探索了出租车/打车服务更容易吸引乘客的相应时间和地点。基于客流量与时空条件之间存在较强相关性的结论,我们建立了竞争-合作指数(CCI)作为定量指标来表征CCR,然后分析CCI的时空分布,以确定出租车相对于打车服务在合作或竞争关系中占据优势的时间和地点。此外,我们还研究了这些模式的根本原因,发现 CCI 与土地利用密切相关。我们的分析结果表明,在某些特定情况下,出租车与打车服务相比具有竞争优势,可以通过有针对性的措施进一步提高其竞争力。这项研究的结果为各行业制定发展战略和政府机构制定政策提供了宝贵的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Why choose active travel over driving? Investigating the impact of the streetscape and land use on active travel in short journeys 为什么选择积极出行而不是开车?调查街景和土地利用对短途主动出行的影响
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103939

The increase in the share of motorization in short-distance trips is a significant contributor to the decline in the share of active travel (AT) and will further pose a challenge to sustainable transport. While many studies have explored the relationship between the built environment (BE) and AT, few have focused on short trips. Additionally, most studies have ignored the important role of the streetscape. To address these gaps, this study utilizes street view big data to quantify street view elements and applies extreme gradient boosting decision trees (XGBoost) to 2020 household travel data in Wuhan. The results indicate that streetscape attributes are more important than land use in predicting short-distance AT, with streetscape being more than 40% relative importance in both models. The contribution of almost all streetscape elements cannot be ignored. Among them, the percentage of driveways showed the highest predictive power. Among land use attributes, population density has the highest relative importance. In addition, most of the independent variables are nonlinearly correlated with the explanatory variables, and this study quantified these association thresholds. These results suggest that optimizing the street built environment has the potential to promote a shift from short-distance driving to AT. The quantification of correlation thresholds provides precise empirical evidence for built environment interventions that promote short-distance AT.

短途出行中机动化比例的增加是导致积极出行(AT)比例下降的重要原因,并将进一步对可持续交通构成挑战。虽然许多研究都探讨了建筑环境(BE)与主动式出行之间的关系,但很少有研究关注短途出行。此外,大多数研究都忽略了街景的重要作用。为弥补这些不足,本研究利用街景大数据量化街景元素,并将极梯度提升决策树(XGBoost)应用于武汉市 2020 年的家庭出行数据。结果表明,在预测短途自驾车出行方面,街景属性比土地利用更重要,在两个模型中,街景的相对重要性都超过了40%。几乎所有街景要素的贡献都不容忽视。其中,车道的百分比显示出最高的预测能力。在土地利用属性中,人口密度的相对重要性最高。此外,大多数自变量与解释变量之间存在非线性关联,本研究对这些关联阈值进行了量化。这些结果表明,优化街道建筑环境有可能促进短途驾驶向自动驾驶的转变。相关阈值的量化为促进短途交通的建筑环境干预措施提供了精确的经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
How does extreme temperature affect shared travel? Evidence from bike-sharing order flow in China 极端气温如何影响共享出行?来自中国共享单车订单流的证据
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103928
Mengtian Xue , Bin Zhang , Siyuan Chen , Yuandong Zhao , Zhaohua Wang

Due to its flexibility, pro-environmental characteristics, and its contribution to solving the first or last kilometer’ problem, sharing bike has become a popular travel option for many residents, especially for short trips. This study analyses the impact of extreme temperatures on residents' shared travel and the bike-sharing industry by combining the full-sample travel data, meteorological data, and POI data in Hohhot, China. Based on the temporal and spatial characteristics of residents' travel, five patterns are distinguished by K-means clustering: basic trips, short-distance trips, round trips, time tolerance trips and distance tolerance trips. The main conclusions of the research are as follows: i) extremely low temperatures can increase the possibility of short-distance trips and round trips but reduce long-duration or long-distance travel. Extremely high temperature has a positive effect on residents' round trips and time tolerance trips but suppress short-distance trips and distance tolerance trips; ii) for long-duration or long-distance shared travel, extremely low temperature enhance the connection between sharing bikes and other modes of transportation, but the extremely high temperature has the opposite impact; iii) extreme temperature causes less substitution of sharing bikes for other vehicles in round trips. However, residents in basic trip mode prefer to use sharing bikes instead of vehicles at extremely high temperatures; iv) the total annual economic loss of shared travel caused by extreme temperatures reached 31,393.82 CNY. In addition, many residents abandon sharing bikes in favor of cars at extreme temperatures, leading to additional carbon emissions of 2585.29 kg/year. The study also provides profound policy implications for the bike-sharing industry and green travel.

共享单车以其灵活、环保、解决 "最后一公里 "问题等特点,已成为许多居民的出行选择,尤其是短途出行。本研究结合中国呼和浩特市的全样本出行数据、气象数据和 POI 数据,分析了极端气温对居民共享出行和共享单车行业的影响。根据居民出行的时空特征,通过 K-means 聚类划分出基本出行、短途出行、往返出行、时间容忍度出行和距离容忍度出行五种模式。研究的主要结论如下:①极端低温会增加短途旅行和往返旅行的可能性,但会减少长时间或长途旅行。极高气温对居民的往返出行和时间容忍度出行有积极影响,但抑制了短途出行和距离容忍度出行;ii) 对于长时或长距离共享出行,极低气温增强了共享单车与其他交通方式之间的联系,但极高气温的影响恰恰相反;iii) 极端气温导致往返出行中共享单车对其他交通工具的替代性降低。然而,在极端高温下,基本出行模式下的居民更愿意使用共享单车而不是车辆;iv) 极端高温造成的共享出行年经济损失总额达 31393.82 元人民币。此外,许多居民在极端气温下放弃共享单车而改用汽车,导致每年额外碳排放 2585.29 千克。这项研究还为共享单车行业和绿色出行提供了深刻的政策启示。
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Journal of Transport Geography
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