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Attention Trajectories Capture Utility Accumulation and Predict Brand Choice 注意力轨迹捕捉效用积累预测品牌选择
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-11-10 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221141052
A. Martinovici, R. Pieters, Tülin Erdem
Trajectories of attention capture the accumulation of brand utility during complex decision-making tasks. Thus, attention trajectories, as reflected in eye movements, predict the final brand choice of 85% of consumers before they implement it. Even when observing eye movements in only the first quarter of the decision process, attention already predicts brand choice much better (45%) than chance levels (20%). This superior prediction performance is due to a “double attention lift” for the chosen brand: The chosen brand receives progressively more attention toward the moment of choice, and more of this attention is devoted to integrating information about the brand rather than to comparing it with other options. In contrast, the currently owned brand grabs attention early in the task, and its attention gain persists for brand-loyal consumers and shifts for brand-switching consumers. A new attention and choice model used in tandem with the Bayesian K-fold cross-validation methodology on eye-tracking data from 325 representative consumers uncovered these attention trajectory effects. The findings contribute to closing important knowledge gaps in the attention and choice literature and have implications for marketing research and managerial practice.
注意力轨迹捕捉了复杂决策任务中品牌效用的积累。因此,反映在眼球运动中的注意力轨迹可以预测85%的消费者在实施之前的最终品牌选择。即使在决策过程的第一季度观察眼球运动,注意力对品牌选择的预测(45%)也比机会水平(20%)好得多。这种卓越的预测性能是由于所选品牌的“双重注意力提升”:在选择的时刻,所选品牌逐渐受到更多的关注,这种关注更多地集中在整合有关品牌的信息上,而不是将其与其他选项进行比较。相比之下,目前拥有的品牌在任务的早期就抓住了注意力,它的注意力持续获得品牌忠实消费者,并转移到品牌转换消费者。一种新的注意力和选择模型与贝叶斯K-fold交叉验证方法相结合,对325名有代表性的消费者的眼睛跟踪数据进行了验证,发现了这些注意力轨迹效应。研究结果有助于填补注意力和选择文献中的重要知识空白,并对营销研究和管理实践具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 2
Teach a Man to Fish: The Use of Autonomous Aid in Eliciting Donations 教一个人钓鱼:在募捐中使用自主援助
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221140028
Stacie F. Waites, Adam Farmer, Jonathan Hasford, R. Welden
Nonprofit organizations often position their charitable efforts as fulfilling the immediate needs of those who are disadvantaged (termed “immediate aid appeals”). This study explores an alternative positioning strategy focused on the use of autonomous aid appeals, which promote the use of donated funds to facilitate the eventual self-sufficiency of those in need. Seven studies show that people are more likely to donate to a charity that uses autonomous aid appeals than immediate aid appeals. The authors generalize this effect to various contexts and examine it with actual donation behavior. They find that managerially relevant boundary conditions support a serial mediation model first through perceptions of impact and then by feelings of hope for the recipient's future. To support the proposed framework, they conduct mediation analyses and two process-by-moderation studies. The findings have practical implications for charities and their promotional messaging.
非营利组织经常把他们的慈善工作定位为满足弱势群体的迫切需要(称为“紧急援助呼吁”)。本研究探讨了另一种定位策略,侧重于使用自主援助呼吁,促进捐赠资金的使用,以促进有需要的人最终实现自给自足。七项研究表明,人们更有可能向使用自主援助呼吁而不是立即援助呼吁的慈善机构捐款。作者将这种影响推广到各种情况下,并以实际捐赠行为进行检验。他们发现,管理相关的边界条件首先通过对影响的感知,然后通过对接受者未来的希望感来支持一系列中介模型。为了支持提议的框架,他们进行了中介分析和两项过程调节研究。研究结果对慈善机构及其宣传信息具有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer Privacy Choices and (Un)Targeted Advertising Along the Purchase Journey 消费者在购买过程中的隐私选择和(非)定向广告
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-11-05 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221140052
W. Choi, Kinshuk Jerath, M. Sarvary
Advertising to a consumer provides potentially useful information to the consumer and moves them along the purchase journey, and tracking the consumer's online activities enables an advertiser to infer the consumer's purchase journey state and target repeat ads accordingly. However, many consumers dislike being tracked, and, furthermore, repeat advertising may lead to ad wearout. The authors develop a model with consumers, an advertiser, and an ad network to investigate, under the preceding considerations, the impact of regulations that endow consumers with the choice to opt in to or out of online tracking. The authors find that, if ad effectiveness is intermediate, opting in to tracking decreases ad repetition; otherwise, opting in increases ad repetition. To make an opt-in decision, a consumer weighs the cost of ad wearout from repeat ads against the benefit of obtaining potentially relevant product information from them, and the consumer opts in to tracking if either ad effectiveness is intermediate or sensitivity to ad wearout is low. This opt-in pattern creates counterintuitive implications; for instance, higher ad effectiveness, even though it implies higher ad valuation for the advertiser, may reduce repeat ads and the ad network's profit. Under regulation that requires consumer consent for tracking, the results shed light on when and why consumers give such consent, and provide useful insights for practitioners and policy makers.
针对消费者的广告为消费者提供了潜在的有用信息,并推动他们沿着购买旅程,跟踪消费者的在线活动使广告商能够推断消费者的购买旅程状态并相应地定位重复广告。然而,许多消费者不喜欢被跟踪,而且,重复广告可能会导致广告失效。作者建立了一个由消费者、广告商和广告网络组成的模型,在上述考虑的情况下,调查赋予消费者选择加入或退出在线跟踪的法规的影响。作者发现,如果广告效果是中等的,选择跟踪会减少广告重复;否则,选择加入会增加广告的重复次数。为了做出选择加入的决定,消费者会权衡重复广告的广告失效成本与从中获得潜在相关产品信息的好处,如果广告效果中等或对广告失效的敏感性较低,消费者会选择加入跟踪。这种选择模式产生了违反直觉的含义;例如,更高的广告效果,即使它意味着更高的广告价值,也可能减少重复广告和广告网络的利润。在需要消费者同意进行跟踪的监管下,研究结果揭示了消费者何时以及为什么会同意,并为从业者和政策制定者提供了有用的见解。
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引用次数: 4
Statistical Inference for the Factor Model Approach to Estimate Causal Effects in Quasi-Experimental Settings 因子模型方法在准实验环境中估计因果效应的统计推断
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221137533
Kathleen T. Li, Garrett P. Sonnier
Causal inference using quasi-experimental data is of great interest to marketers. The factor model approach to estimate treatment effects accommodates a large number of control units and can easily handle a large number of treatment units while flexibly allowing for cases where the treatment is outside the range of the control units. However, the factor model method lacks formal inference theory, instead relying on bootstrap or permutation procedures with strong assumptions. Specifically, the extant Xu (2017) bootstrap procedure requires that the treatment and control error variances are equal. In this research the authors establish that when this assumption is violated, the bootstrap procedure results in biased coverage intervals. The authors develop a formal inference theory for the factor model approach to estimate the average treatment effects on the treated. The approach enables formal quantification of uncertainty through hypothesis testing and confidence intervals. The inference method is applicable to both stationary and nonstationary data. More importantly, the inference theory accommodates treatment and control unit outcomes with different distributions, which includes different error variances as a special case. The authors show the performance of the inference theory with simulated data. Finally, they apply the method to empirically quantify the uncertainty in the effect of legalizing recreational marijuana on the beer market and the sales effect of a digitally native online brand opening a physical showroom.
利用准实验数据进行因果推理是营销人员非常感兴趣的。用于估计治疗效果的因子模型方法可容纳大量控制单元,并且可以轻松处理大量治疗单元,同时灵活地允许治疗超出控制单元范围的情况。然而,因子模型方法缺乏形式化的推理理论,而是依赖于具有强假设的自举或排列过程。具体而言,现有的Xu (2017) bootstrap程序要求处理和控制误差方差相等。在本研究中,作者证明当这个假设被违反时,自举过程会导致有偏的覆盖区间。作者为因子模型方法开发了一种形式推理理论,以估计对被治疗者的平均治疗效果。该方法可以通过假设检验和置信区间对不确定性进行正式量化。该推理方法对平稳数据和非平稳数据都适用。更重要的是,推理理论容纳了不同分布的治疗和控制单元结果,其中包括不同的误差方差作为特殊情况。用仿真数据验证了推理理论的有效性。最后,他们运用该方法实证量化了娱乐性大麻合法化对啤酒市场影响的不确定性,以及数字原生在线品牌开设实体展厅的销售效果。
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引用次数: 0
Algorithmic Transference: People Overgeneralize Failures of AI in the Government 算法移情:人们过度概括政府中人工智能的失败
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-10-19 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221110139
Chiara Longoni, Luca Cian, Ellie J. Kyung
Artificial intelligence (AI) is pervading the government and transforming how public services are provided to consumers across policy areas spanning allocation of government benefits, law enforceme...
人工智能(AI)正在渗透到政府部门,并在政府福利分配、执法等政策领域改变向消费者提供公共服务的方式。
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引用次数: 4
Too Time-Crunched to Seek Variety: The Influence of Parenting Motivation on Consumer Variety Seeking 时间太紧迫而无法寻求多样性:育儿动机对消费者多样性寻求的影响
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-10-18 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221136491
Yitian Liang, Zhongqiang Huang, Lei Su
Parenting motivation, the inspiration and drive to take care of one's children, is a powerful instinct for facilitating human reproduction. In a set of hypotheses, the authors address how, why, and among whom parenting motivation affects a pervasive decision-making tendency, namely, variety seeking. Six studies, including a large-scale panel data study and five online and lab studies, show that, when shopping, parenting motivation spurs feelings of time crunch that result in less variety seeking among consumers. The effect is diminished when time-saving parenting support exists (which reduces feelings of time crunch in parenting), when consumers are led to believe that they have sufficient time available for shopping, and when they do not have much loyalty to any brand offered in the choice set and thus cannot save time by simply choosing the top-of-mind product option. The current research thus contributes to the growing literature on how parenting motivation affects consumer decision making. In addition, it augments the literature on variety seeking by identifying an important factor that can influence it.
养育子女的动机,即照顾孩子的灵感和动力,是促进人类繁殖的强大本能。在一组假设中,作者讨论了养育动机如何、为什么以及在哪些人中影响普遍的决策倾向,即寻求多样性。六项研究,包括一项大规模的小组数据研究和五项在线和实验室研究,表明在购物时,育儿动机会刺激时间紧张的感觉,从而减少消费者的多样性。当存在节省时间的育儿支持时(这减少了育儿时的时间紧张感),当消费者被引导相信他们有足够的时间购物,当他们对选择集中提供的任何品牌都没有太多忠诚度,因此无法通过简单地选择最重要的产品选项来节省时间时,这种影响就会减弱。因此,目前的研究为越来越多的关于育儿动机如何影响消费者决策的文献做出了贡献。此外,它通过确定一个可能影响多样性的重要因素,扩充了关于多样性寻求的文献。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond Sentiment: The Value and Measurement of Consumer Certainty in Language 超越情感:语言中消费者确定性的价值和测量
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-10-13 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221134802
Matthew D. Rocklage, Sharlene He, Derek D. Rucker, L. Nordgren
Sentiment analysis has fundamentally changed marketers’ ability to assess consumer opinion. Indeed, the measurement of attitudes via natural language has influenced how marketing is practiced on a day-to-day basis. Yet recent findings suggest that sentiment analysis's current emphasis on measuring valence (i.e., positivity or negativity) can produce incomplete, inaccurate, and even misleading insights. Conceptually, the current work challenges sentiment analysis to move beyond valence. The authors identify the certainty or confidence of consumers’ sentiment as a particularly potent facet to assess. Empirically, they develop a new computational measure of certainty in language—the Certainty Lexicon—and validate its use with sentiment analysis. To construct and validate this measure, the authors use text from 11.6 million people who generated billions of words, millions of online reviews, and hundreds of thousands of entries in an online prediction market. Across social media data sets, in-lab experiments, and online reviews, the authors find that the Certainty Lexicon is more comprehensive, generalizable, and accurate in its measurement compared with other tools. The authors also demonstrate the value of measuring sentiment certainty for marketers: certainty predicted the real-world success of commercials where traditional sentiment analysis did not. The Certainty Lexicon is available at www.CertaintyLexicon.com.
情感分析从根本上改变了营销人员评估消费者意见的能力。事实上,通过自然语言来衡量态度已经影响了日常营销的实践方式。然而,最近的研究结果表明,情感分析目前强调测量效价(即积极或消极),可能会产生不完整、不准确甚至误导性的见解。从概念上讲,目前的工作挑战情绪分析超越价。作者认为消费者情绪的确定性或信心是评估的一个特别有力的方面。在经验上,他们开发了一种新的语言确定性计算方法——确定性词典,并通过情感分析验证了它的使用。为了构建和验证这一度量,作者使用了来自1160万人的文本,这些人在在线预测市场中产生了数十亿个单词、数百万个在线评论和数十万个条目。通过社交媒体数据集、实验室实验和在线评论,作者发现,与其他工具相比,确定性词典在测量方面更全面、更通用、更准确。作者还证明了衡量情感确定性对营销人员的价值:确定性预测了广告在现实世界中的成功,而传统的情感分析却不能。《确定性词典》可在www.CertaintyLexicon.com上找到。
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引用次数: 3
More Voices Persuade: The Attentional Benefits of Voice Numerosity 更多的声音说服:声音数论的注意优势
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221134115
Hannah H. Chang, A. Mukherjee, Amitava Chattopadhyay
The authors posit that in an initial exposure to a broadcast video, hearing different voices narrate (in succession) a persuasive message encourages consumers’ attention and processing of the message, thereby facilitating persuasion; this is referred to as the voice numerosity effect. Across four studies (plus validation and replication studies)—including two large-scale, real-world data sets (with more than 11,000 crowdfunding videos and over 3.6 million customer transactions, and more than 1,600 video ads) and two controlled experiments (with over 1,800 participants)—the results provide support for the hypothesized effect. The effect (1) has consequential, economic implications in a real-world marketplace, (2) is more pronounced when the message is easier to comprehend, (3) is more pronounced when consumers have the capacity to process the ad message, and (4) is mediated by the favorability of consumers’ cognitive responses. The authors demonstrate the use of machine learning, text mining, and natural language processing to process and analyze unstructured (multimedia) data. Theoretical and marketing implications are discussed.
作者认为,在最初接触广播视频时,听到不同的声音(连续)讲述有说服力的信息会鼓励消费者关注和处理信息,从而促进说服;这被称为语音数字效应。在四项研究(加上验证和复制研究)中,包括两个大规模的真实世界数据集(有11000多个众筹视频和360多万客户交易,以及1600多个视频广告)和两个对照实验(有1800多名参与者),结果为假设的效果提供了支持。这种影响(1)在现实世界的市场中具有相应的经济影响,(2)当信息更容易理解时更明显,(3)当消费者有能力处理广告信息时更明显;(4)由消费者认知反应的好感度介导。作者演示了使用机器学习、文本挖掘和自然语言处理来处理和分析非结构化(多媒体)数据。讨论了理论和营销含义。
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引用次数: 3
The Daily Me Versus the Daily Others: How Do Recommendation Algorithms Change User Interests? Evidence from a Knowledge-Sharing Platform 每日我与每日他人:推荐算法如何改变用户兴趣?来自知识共享平台的证据
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221134237
Jia Liu, Ziwei Cong
Recommender systems on online platforms are often accused of polarizing user attention and consumption. The authors examine this phenomenon using a quasi-experiment conducted by Zhihu, the largest online knowledge-sharing platform (or Q&A community) in China. Zhihu originally used a content-based filtering algorithm, which recommends content to users on the basis of the topics to which each user has subscribed. After more than a year, Zhihu moved to a social filtering algorithm, which recommends content with which users’ social connections are already engaged. The authors find that this algorithm change increased the creation of social ties by approximately 15% but decreased question subscriptions by 20% and answer contributions by 23%. The authors show that users’ increased social interests mainly involved following popular users, leading to a greater concentration of social interests on the platform. However, users’ topical interests became less concentrated, as popular topics received significantly fewer subscribers than unpopular topics. The authors explain these findings by exploring the underlying mechanism. They show that compared with content-based filtering algorithms, social filtering algorithms are more likely to expose general users to content consumed by their followees, who are more interested in niche topics than general users are.
在线平台上的推荐系统经常被指责为用户注意力和消费两极分化。作者使用中国最大的在线知识共享平台(或问答社区)知乎进行的一项准实验来研究这一现象。知乎最初使用的是基于内容的过滤算法,根据每个用户订阅的主题向用户推荐内容。一年多后,知乎转向了社交过滤算法,该算法推荐用户社交关系已经参与的内容。作者发现,这种算法的改变使社交关系的创建增加了约15%,但问题订阅减少了20%,回答贡献减少了23%。作者发现,用户增加的社交兴趣主要涉及关注热门用户,导致社交兴趣在平台上更加集中。然而,用户的话题兴趣变得不那么集中,因为热门话题的订阅用户明显少于不受欢迎的话题。作者通过探索潜在的机制来解释这些发现。他们表明,与基于内容的过滤算法相比,社交过滤算法更有可能让普通用户接触到其追随者消费的内容,他们比普通用户对小众话题更感兴趣。
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引用次数: 2
Discovering Online Shopping Preference Structures in Large and Frequently Changing Store Assortments 在大型和频繁变化的商店分类中发现在线购物偏好结构
IF 6.1 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI: 10.1177/00222437221130722
Min Kim, Jie Zhang
The authors develop an attribute-based mixed-membership model of consumers’ preference for stockkeeping units in store assortments. The model represents the underlying “topics of interest” that drive shopping behaviors as probability distributions over product attributes. It overcomes several limitations of latent Dirichlet allocation topic models and is particularly useful for making preference predictions in large and frequently changing store assortments. The authors apply the proposed model to investigate topics driving browsing and purchase activities in an online deal marketplace of fashion products and explore how preference structures evolve over time. They find commonalities and differences in the topics that drive the browsing and purchase stages of online shopping processes. In general, browsing covers a broader range of product attributes than purchases. Consumers tend to browse products of premium positioning and/or deep discounts in the deal marketplace, but when purchasing, they tend to gravitate toward lower-tiered products at their original prices and modest depths of discounts. The authors illustrate how insights from the proposed model can be utilized to profile consumers based on their price preferences and to improve personalized product recommendations. They show that the model's performance is particularly strong in predicting preferences for new products that are not in the existing assortment.
作者开发了一个基于属性的混合成员关系模型,该模型反映了消费者对商店产品组合中库存单位的偏好。该模型将推动购物行为的潜在“感兴趣的主题”表示为产品属性的概率分布。它克服了潜在狄利克雷分配主题模型的几个局限性,特别适用于在频繁变化的大型商店分类中进行偏好预测。作者将所提出的模型应用于研究时尚产品在线交易市场中推动浏览和购买活动的主题,并探索偏好结构如何随着时间的推移而演变。他们发现,在推动网上购物过程的浏览和购买阶段的主题中,存在共性和差异。一般来说,浏览所涵盖的产品属性比购买范围更广。消费者倾向于在交易市场上浏览高端定位和/或大幅折扣的产品,但在购买时,他们倾向于以原价和适度折扣购买较低级别的产品。作者举例说明了如何利用所提出的模型的见解,根据消费者的价格偏好对其进行分析,并改进个性化产品推荐。他们表明,该模型在预测现有产品组合中没有的新产品的偏好方面表现得特别好。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Marketing Research
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