Accurate forecasting of energy consumption is a critical component of effective resource management across the building, industrial, and transportation sectors. This work proposes a hybrid novel approach that incorporates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with Gradient Boosting (GB) and Random Forest (FR) for improving energy demand prediction capabilities. These models will undergo an optimization process by the application of the Hunger Games Search (HGS) algorithm, boosting the prediction accuracy while incorporating Explainable AI (XAI) techniques that make the results interpretable.
In the PJM region, a regional transmission organization in the United States, the time series data recorded by four monitoring stations are considered. The performance of different models is evaluated based on critical metrics comprising Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), and the coefficient of determination (R²) with 480 data points at each station. Among all models, CNN_RF_HGS performs the best as it tends to show a maximum of up to 0.9175 for the coefficient of determination in some cases. Such accuracy is achieved at the cost of a longer training time due to HGS optimization, highlighting a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. However, the optimized model can be stored and reused as the pre-trained model, which will reduce the inference time by large margins and may fit real-time application purposes. Overall, this research demonstrates an effective blend of deep learning and traditional models for capturing complex nonlinear patterns in energy consumption, enabling more accurate and reliable forecasts.
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