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On Robust Fundamental Theorems of Asset Pricing in Discrete Time 论离散时间资产定价的稳健基本定理
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1137/23m156032x
Huy N. Chau
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 3, Page 571-600, September 2024.
Abstract.This paper is devoted to a study of robust fundamental theorems of asset pricing in discrete time and finite horizon settings. Uncertainty is modeled by a (possibly uncountable) family of price processes on the same probability space. Our technical assumption is the continuity of the price processes with respect to uncertain parameters. In this setting, we introduce a new topological framework which allows us to use the classical arguments in arbitrage pricing theory involving Lp spaces, the Hahn–Banach separation theorem, and other tools from functional analysis. The first result is the equivalence of a “no robust arbitrage” condition and the existence of a new “robust pricing system.” The second result shows superhedging dualities and the existence of superhedging strategies without restrictive conditions on payoff functions, in contrast to other related studies. The third result discusses completeness in the present robust setting. When other options are available for static trading, we could reduce the set of robust pricing systems and hence the superhedging prices.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》,第 15 卷第 3 期,第 571-600 页,2024 年 9 月。 摘要.本文致力于研究离散时间和有限时间跨度背景下资产定价的稳健基本定理。不确定性由同一概率空间上的(可能是不可数的)价格过程族建模。我们的技术假设是价格过程相对于不确定参数的连续性。在这种情况下,我们引入了一个新的拓扑框架,它允许我们使用套利定价理论中涉及 Lp 空间的经典论证、哈恩-巴纳赫分离定理以及函数分析中的其他工具。第一个结果是 "无稳健套利 "条件与新的 "稳健定价系统 "的等价性。第二个结果显示了超级对冲二元性和超级对冲策略的存在,而无需对报酬函数附加限制性条件,这与其他相关研究截然不同。第三个结果讨论了当前稳健设置中的完备性。当静态交易有其他选择时,我们可以减少稳健定价系统的集合,从而减少超级对冲价格。
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引用次数: 0
Nonasymptotic Estimation of Risk Measures Using Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics 利用随机梯度朗文动力学对风险度量进行非渐近估计
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1137/23m1552747
Jiarui Chu, Ludovic Tangpi
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page 503-536, June 2024.
Abstract.In this paper we will study the approximation of some law-invariant risk measures. As a starting point, we approximate the average value at risk using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics, which can be seen as a variant of the stochastic gradient descent algorithm. Further, the Kusuoka spectral representation allows us to bootstrap the estimation of the average value at risk to extend the algorithm to general law-invariant risk measures. We will present both theoretical, nonasymptotic convergence rates of the approximation algorithm and numerical simulations.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》,第 15 卷,第 2 期,第 503-536 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要.本文将研究一些定律不变风险度量的近似。首先,我们使用随机梯度朗格文动力学来逼近平均风险值,这可以看作是随机梯度下降算法的一种变体。此外,通过 Kusuoka 频谱表示,我们可以对平均风险值的估计进行引导,从而将算法扩展到一般的不变式风险度量。我们将介绍近似算法的理论非渐近收敛率和数值模拟。
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引用次数: 0
Risk Measures beyond Frictionless Markets 无摩擦市场之外的风险措施
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1137/22m1540090
Maria Arduca, Cosimo Munari
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page 537-570, June 2024.
Abstract.We develop a general theory of risk measures to determine the optimal amount of capital to raise and invest in a portfolio of reference traded securities in order to meet a prespecified regulatory requirement. The distinguishing feature of our approach is that we embed portfolio constraints and transaction costs into the securities market. As a consequence, the property of translation invariance, which plays a key role in the classical theory, ceases to hold. We provide a comprehensive analysis of relevant properties, such as star shapedness, positive homogeneity, convexity, quasiconvexity, subadditivity, and lower semicontinuity. In addition, we establish dual representations for convex and quasiconvex risk measures. In the convex case, the absence of a special kind of arbitrage opportunity allows one to obtain dual representations in terms of pricing rules that respect market bid-ask spreads and assign a strictly positive price to each nonzero position in the regulator’s acceptance set.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》第 15 卷第 2 期第 537-570 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要.我们发展了风险度量的一般理论,以确定为满足预先规定的监管要求而筹集并投资于参考交易证券组合的最优资本量。我们的方法的显著特点是将投资组合约束和交易成本嵌入证券市场。因此,在经典理论中起关键作用的平移不变性属性不再成立。我们全面分析了相关性质,如星形性、正同质性、凸性、准凸性、次加性和低半连续性。此外,我们还建立了凸风险度量和准凸风险度量的对偶表示。在凸的情况下,由于不存在一种特殊的套利机会,我们可以通过定价规则获得双重表示,即尊重市场买卖价差,并为监管者接受集中的每个非零头寸分配一个严格的正价格。
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引用次数: 0
Short Communication: Monte Carlo Expected Wealth and Risk Measure Trade-Off Portfolio Optimization 简短交流:蒙特卡洛预期财富与风险度量权衡组合优化
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1137/23m1624439
Raino A. E. Mäkinen, Jari Toivanen
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page SC41-SC53, June 2024.
Abstract.A multiperiod portfolio optimization is described with Monte Carlo sampled risky asset paths under realistic constraints on the investment policies. The proposed approach can be used with various asset and risk models. It is flexible as it does not require dynamic programming or any transformations. As examples, the variance and semivariance risks are considered leading to mean-variance and mean-semivariance formulations, respectively. A quasi-Newton method with an adjoint gradient computation can solve the resulting optimization problems efficiently. Numerical examples show efficient frontiers together with optimal asset allocations computed for mean-variance and mean-semivariance portfolios with two and five assets.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》,第 15 卷第 2 期,第 SC41-SC53 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要:在投资政策的现实约束条件下,用蒙特卡罗抽样风险资产路径描述了一种多期投资组合优化。所提出的方法可用于各种资产和风险模型。该方法无需动态编程或任何转换,因此非常灵活。以方差风险和半方差风险为例,分别考虑了均值方差公式和均值半方差公式。准牛顿方法与邻接梯度计算可以高效地解决由此产生的优化问题。数值示例显示了有效前沿,以及计算出的两种和五种资产的均值方差和均值-半方差投资组合的最优资产配置。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Clearing Payments in a Financial Contagion Model 金融疫情模型中的最优清算支付
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1137/22m150294x
Giuseppe C. Calafiore, Giulia Fracastoro, Anton V. Proskurnikov
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page 473-502, June 2024.
Abstract.Financial networks are characterized by complex structures of mutual obligations. These obligations are fulfilled entirely or in part (when defaults occur) via a mechanism called clearing, which determines a set of payments that settle the claims by respecting rules such as limited liability, absolute priority, and proportionality (pro-rated payments). In the presence of shocks on the financial system, however, the clearing mechanism may lead to cascaded defaults and eventually to financial disaster. In this paper, we first study the clearing model under pro-rated payments of Eisenberg and Noe, and we derive novel necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of the clearing payments, valid for an arbitrary topology of the financial network. Next, we observe that the proportionality rule is a factor that potentially concurs to the cascaded defaults effect, and that the aggregated systemic loss can be reduced if this rule is lifted. We thus shift the focus from the individual interest to the overall systemic interest to contain the adverse effects of cascaded failures, and we show that pro-rate-free clearing payments can be computed uniquely by solving suitable convex optimization problems.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》,第 15 卷,第 2 期,第 473-502 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要:金融网络的特点是相互义务的复杂结构。这些义务通过一种称为清算的机制来全部或部分履行(当违约发生时),该机制通过遵守有限责任、绝对优先权和比例(按比例支付)等规则来确定一系列支付,以清偿债权。然而,在金融体系受到冲击的情况下,清算机制可能会导致连锁违约,并最终引发金融灾难。在本文中,我们首先研究了艾森伯格和诺伊的按比例支付下的清算模型,并推导出了新的清算支付唯一性的必要条件和充分条件,这些条件对金融网络的任意拓扑结构都有效。接下来,我们发现比例规则是可能导致连带违约效应的一个因素,如果取消这一规则,系统性损失的总量就会减少。因此,我们将关注点从个人利益转移到整体系统利益,以遏制连带违约的不利影响,并证明通过求解合适的凸优化问题,可以唯一计算出无比例清算付款。
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引用次数: 0
Detecting Data-Driven Robust Statistical Arbitrage Strategies with Deep Neural Networks 利用深度神经网络检测数据驱动的稳健统计套利策略
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1137/22m1487928
Ariel Neufeld, Julian Sester, Daiying Yin
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page 436-472, June 2024.
Abstract.We present an approach, based on deep neural networks, for identifying robust statistical arbitrage strategies in financial markets. Robust statistical arbitrage strategies refer to trading strategies that enable profitable trading under model ambiguity. The presented novel methodology allows one to consider a large amount of underlying securities simultaneously and does not depend on the identification of cointegrated pairs of assets; hence it is applicable on high-dimensional financial markets or in markets where classical pairs trading approaches fail. Moreover, we provide a method to build an ambiguity set of admissible probability measures that can be derived from observed market data. Thus, the approach can be considered as being model free and entirely data driven. We showcase the applicability of our method by providing empirical investigations with highly profitable trading performances even in 50 dimensions, during financial crises, and when the cointegration relationship between asset pairs stops to persist.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》,第 15 卷,第 2 期,第 436-472 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要:我们提出了一种基于深度神经网络的方法,用于识别金融市场中的稳健统计套利策略。稳健统计套利策略指的是在模型模糊的情况下能够实现盈利的交易策略。所提出的新方法可以同时考虑大量的相关证券,并且不依赖于对资产的协整对的识别;因此它适用于高维金融市场或经典对交易方法失效的市场。此外,我们还提供了一种方法,用于建立可从观察到的市场数据中推导出的可接受概率度量的模糊集。因此,我们可以认为这种方法不需要模型,完全由数据驱动。我们通过实证研究展示了我们方法的适用性,即使在 50 维度、金融危机期间以及资产对之间的协整关系不再持续的情况下,我们也能实现高盈利的交易表现。
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引用次数: 0
Fully Dynamic Risk Measures: Horizon Risk, Time-Consistency, and Relations with BSDEs and BSVIEs 全动态风险度量:水平风险、时间一致性以及与 BSDE 和 BSVIE 的关系
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1137/23m1546804
Giulia Di Nunno, Emanuela Rosazza Gianin
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page 399-435, June 2024.
Abstract.In a dynamic framework, we identify a new concept associated with the risk of assessing the financial exposure by a measure that is not adequate to the actual time horizon of the position. This will be called horizon risk. We clarify that dynamic risk measures are subject to horizon risk, so we propose to use the fully dynamic version. To quantify horizon risk, we introduce h-longevity as an indicator. We investigate these notions together with other properties of risk measures, such as normalization, restriction property, and different formulations of time-consistency. We also consider these concepts for fully dynamic risk measures generated by backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (BSVIEs), and families of these. Within this study, we provide new results for BSVIEs, such as a converse comparison theorem and the dual representation of the associated risk measures.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》第 15 卷第 2 期第 399-435 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要.在一个动态框架中,我们发现了一个新的概念,它与用不符合头寸实际时间跨度的方法来评估金融风险敞口的风险有关。这将被称为时间跨度风险。我们明确指出,动态风险度量受地平线风险的影响,因此我们建议使用完全动态版本。为了量化地平线风险,我们引入了 h-longevity 作为指标。我们将这些概念与风险度量的其他属性一起研究,如归一化、限制属性和时间一致性的不同表述。我们还考虑了由后向随机微分方程 (BSDE)、后向随机伏特拉积分方程 (BSVIE) 及其族生成的全动态风险度量的这些概念。在这项研究中,我们为 BSVIEs 提供了新的结果,如反向比较定理和相关风险度量的对偶表示。
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引用次数: 0
Short Communication: Utility-Based Acceptability Indices 简短交流:基于效用的可接受性指数
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1137/24m1632486
Marcin Pitera, Miklós Rásonyi
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page SC28-SC40, June 2024.
Abstract.This paper presents a novel class of performance measures that is constituted by certainty equivalents derived from scaled utility functions. We examine the characteristics of these measures and demonstrate that while most normative properties from the coherent acceptability framework are preserved, scale invariance is replaced by inverse positive homogeneity; this property is a specific type of subscale invariance. Additionally, we show that the introduced framework is suited for log-return portfolio optimization, as the corresponding problem admits a solution under generic conditions.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》,第 15 卷第 2 期,第 SC28-SC40 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要.本文提出了一类新的绩效度量,它是由按比例效用函数导出的确定性等价物构成的。我们研究了这些测量指标的特征,并证明虽然一致性可接受性框架中的大多数规范属性都得到了保留,但尺度不变性被逆正同质性所取代;这一属性是子尺度不变性的一种特殊类型。此外,我们还证明了所引入的框架适用于对数收益组合优化,因为相应的问题在一般条件下是可以解决的。
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引用次数: 0
Relative Wealth Concerns with Partial Information and Heterogeneous Priors 部分信息和异质先验的相对财富考量
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1137/22m1508625
Chao Deng, Xizhi Su, Chao Zhou
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page 360-398, June 2024.
Abstract.We establish a Nash equilibrium for [math] agents with the relative wealth performance criteria when the market return is unobservable. We show that the optimal investment strategy under a stochastic return rate model can be characterized by a fully coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). We establish the existence and uniqueness results for the class of FBSDEs with stochastic coefficients and solve the utility game under partial information by using deep neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy by a base-case comparison with the semianalytical solution in the linear case. We examined the Sharpe ratios and the variance risk ratios by numerical simulation. We observe that the agent with the most accurate prior estimate is likely to lead the herd. Moreover, the effect of competition on heterogeneous agents varies more with market characteristics compared to that of the homogeneous case.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》,第 15 卷第 2 期,第 360-398 页,2024 年 6 月。摘要.当市场收益不可观测时,我们为具有相对财富表现标准的[数学]代理人建立了纳什均衡。我们证明,随机收益率模型下的最优投资策略可以用一个完全耦合的前向-后向随机微分方程(FBSDE)来表征。我们建立了一类具有随机系数的 FBSDE 的存在性和唯一性结果,并利用深度神经网络求解了部分信息下的效用博弈。我们通过与线性情况下的半解析解进行基本情况比较,证明了其效率和准确性。我们通过数值模拟检验了夏普比率和方差风险比率。我们发现,先验估计最准确的代理很可能会领导牛群。此外,与同质情况相比,竞争对异质代理的影响随市场特征的变化更大。
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引用次数: 0
Mortgage Contracts and Underwater Default 抵押合同和水下违约
IF 1 4区 经济学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: 10.1137/22m1498590
Yerkin Kitapbayev, Scott Robertson
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 15, Issue 2, Page 315-359, June 2024.
Abstract.We analyze recently proposed mortgage contracts that aim to eliminate selective borrower default when the loan balance exceeds the house price (the “underwater” effect). We show contracts that automatically reduce the outstanding balance in the event of house price decline do eliminate selective default, but they may induce prepayment in low price states. However, low state prepayments vanish if the benefit from home ownership is sufficiently high. We also show that capital gain sharing features, such as prepayment penalties in high house price states, are ineffective as they virtually eliminate prepayment. For observed foreclosure costs, we find that contracts with automatic balance adjustments become preferable to the traditional fixed-rate contracts at mortgage rate spreads between 20–50 basis points. We obtain these results for perpetual versions of the contracts using an American options pricing methodology, in a continuous-time model with diffusive home prices. The contracts’ values and decision rules are associated with free boundary problems, which admit semiexplicit solutions.
SIAM 金融数学期刊》第 15 卷第 2 期第 315-359 页,2024 年 6 月。摘要:我们分析了最近提出的旨在消除借款人在贷款余额超过房价时选择性违约("水下 "效应)的抵押贷款合同。我们的研究表明,在房价下跌时自动减少未偿余额的合同确实能消除选择性违约,但它们可能会在低价状态下诱发预付。然而,如果房屋所有权的收益足够高,低价状态下的预付就会消失。我们还表明,高房价州的预付惩罚等资本收益分享特征是无效的,因为它们几乎消除了预付。对于观察到的取消赎回权成本,我们发现当抵押贷款利率差在 20-50 个基点之间时,自动调整余额的合同比传统的固定利率合同更受欢迎。我们采用美式期权定价方法,在一个具有扩散性房价的连续时间模型中,对永久版本的合同得出了上述结果。合约的价值和决策规则与自由边界问题相关联,这些问题都有半明解。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics
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