Pub Date : 2022-03-17DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2022.2048330
Fabian Rosner, D. Yang, Ashok Rao, S. Samuelsen
Abstract Historically, gas turbines (GTs) have been engineered for natural gas applications and costs are commonly estimated on a $/kW basis. However, when studying advanced power systems such as solid oxide fuel cell-GT hybrids or other unconventional applications, this commonly used cost basis cannot accurately predict the GT cost under these novel operating conditions, which ultimately leads to inaccurate economic evaluations of the entire power system. In this study, a parametric cost estimation approach has been utilized to identify the main cost drivers based upon the GT’s on-design operating condition: I) GT air mass flow rate, II) GT compression ratio and III) GT turbine inlet temperature. Based on these characteristics, a GT cost correlation has been derived which is able to predict the GT genset price with an accuracy level of R2 = 97.5%.
{"title":"Gas turbine price projection for n-th plant equipment cost","authors":"Fabian Rosner, D. Yang, Ashok Rao, S. Samuelsen","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2022.2048330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2022.2048330","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Historically, gas turbines (GTs) have been engineered for natural gas applications and costs are commonly estimated on a $/kW basis. However, when studying advanced power systems such as solid oxide fuel cell-GT hybrids or other unconventional applications, this commonly used cost basis cannot accurately predict the GT cost under these novel operating conditions, which ultimately leads to inaccurate economic evaluations of the entire power system. In this study, a parametric cost estimation approach has been utilized to identify the main cost drivers based upon the GT’s on-design operating condition: I) GT air mass flow rate, II) GT compression ratio and III) GT turbine inlet temperature. Based on these characteristics, a GT cost correlation has been derived which is able to predict the GT genset price with an accuracy level of R2 = 97.5%.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"325 - 330"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42906392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2022.2028048
Mohamad Zarean, A. Sayadi, Amin Mousavi
Abstract Whereas the practical importance of the Economic Lifetime (EL) is well-known, selecting the proper process has always been a dilemma. In this respect, classical methods dating back to one century ago are generally favored, but using them in a data-driven approach still has particular shortcomings. This paper aims to present a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) model determining the EL of a truck while fluctuation in historical data deepens through its lifespan. The equivalent annual cost of LCC is developed based on Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs along with the resale value. The O&M cost was estimated deterministically and stochastically using regression analysis and Brownian-Motion-based simulation. The resale value was modeled by employing a genetic algorithm. The model capability was evaluated using real data of a seven cubic-meters truck hauling rock-fill materials in a dam construction project. The optimal EL was estimated on average 105 months in deterministic condition, while it was 88-145 months at the 70% confidence level using non-deterministic approach.
{"title":"Case study of an equivalent annual cost model for economic lifetime for construction vehicles under cost uncertainty","authors":"Mohamad Zarean, A. Sayadi, Amin Mousavi","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2022.2028048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2022.2028048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Whereas the practical importance of the Economic Lifetime (EL) is well-known, selecting the proper process has always been a dilemma. In this respect, classical methods dating back to one century ago are generally favored, but using them in a data-driven approach still has particular shortcomings. This paper aims to present a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) model determining the EL of a truck while fluctuation in historical data deepens through its lifespan. The equivalent annual cost of LCC is developed based on Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs along with the resale value. The O&M cost was estimated deterministically and stochastically using regression analysis and Brownian-Motion-based simulation. The resale value was modeled by employing a genetic algorithm. The model capability was evaluated using real data of a seven cubic-meters truck hauling rock-fill materials in a dam construction project. The optimal EL was estimated on average 105 months in deterministic condition, while it was 88-145 months at the 70% confidence level using non-deterministic approach.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"75 - 93"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45804450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2021.2017094
K. Min, J. Jackman
Abstract Operations that depend on transportation vehicles experience a high degree of uncertainty in fuel costs. We construct and analyze the engineering economic problem of how to value flexibility when the vehicle design under consideration enables fuel savings in the future by incurring an initial cost for the vehicle to incorporate features that will support future modifications. For a vehicle manufacturer working with a customer, we derive the optimal threshold fuel costs to incorporate such features and to decommission under the net benefit maximization through a real options approach. From these derivations as well as an illustrative example in the case of winglets for aircraft, we present the managerial insights and economic implications of the flexible design in transportation vehicles.
{"title":"Real Option-Based decision model for fuel saving devices in transportation vehicles under flexible design","authors":"K. Min, J. Jackman","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2021.2017094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2021.2017094","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Operations that depend on transportation vehicles experience a high degree of uncertainty in fuel costs. We construct and analyze the engineering economic problem of how to value flexibility when the vehicle design under consideration enables fuel savings in the future by incurring an initial cost for the vehicle to incorporate features that will support future modifications. For a vehicle manufacturer working with a customer, we derive the optimal threshold fuel costs to incorporate such features and to decommission under the net benefit maximization through a real options approach. From these derivations as well as an illustrative example in the case of winglets for aircraft, we present the managerial insights and economic implications of the flexible design in transportation vehicles.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"2 - 24"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48488233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2022.2028047
Ramin Giahi, C. MacKenzie, Chang-Fen Hu
Abstract Engineering systems often operate for a long period of time under varying conditions. The system should be designed based on the best available information at the time of the decision. Designers should also account for future uncertainties in the initial design of the system. The initial design may or may not change as the future evolves and conditions change. The goal of this study is to optimize the design of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) to deliver electricity under highly uncertain demand. This research explores designing the hybrid system while taking into account uncertainties over a long period of time (i.e., 20 years in this study). The objective is to minimize the expected discounted cost of the HRES during the next 20 years. A design solution may also be flexible, which means that the design can be adapted or modified in the future to meet new scenarios. This article incorporates flexibility or capacity expansion into engineering design under long-range uncertainty when the objective function is evaluated via a Monte Carlo simulation. The value of expanding capacity is measured by comparing the cost without capacity expansion and cost with capacity expansion.
{"title":"Optimizing the flexible design of hybrid renewable energy systems","authors":"Ramin Giahi, C. MacKenzie, Chang-Fen Hu","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2022.2028047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2022.2028047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Engineering systems often operate for a long period of time under varying conditions. The system should be designed based on the best available information at the time of the decision. Designers should also account for future uncertainties in the initial design of the system. The initial design may or may not change as the future evolves and conditions change. The goal of this study is to optimize the design of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) to deliver electricity under highly uncertain demand. This research explores designing the hybrid system while taking into account uncertainties over a long period of time (i.e., 20 years in this study). The objective is to minimize the expected discounted cost of the HRES during the next 20 years. A design solution may also be flexible, which means that the design can be adapted or modified in the future to meet new scenarios. This article incorporates flexibility or capacity expansion into engineering design under long-range uncertainty when the objective function is evaluated via a Monte Carlo simulation. The value of expanding capacity is measured by comparing the cost without capacity expansion and cost with capacity expansion.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"25 - 51"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43236039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2021.2015498
Zhenyao Wu, S. Hanaoka, B. Shuai
Abstract Optimal upper and lower thresholds model for traffic guarantee are proposed to optimize the risk allocation between a government and a concessionaire considering the perspective of lenders and the risk tolerances of the participants. In this study, the condition for the lender to provide the loan is that the default probability of the project does not exceed the acceptable maximum default probability of the lender. The proposed model uses risk weights to reflect the risk tolerances of government and the concessionaire and adopts a Gini coefficient for risk to describe the rationality of risk allocation. The application of the model to a highway project shows that a traffic guarantee with optimal thresholds effectively balances the project risks for both the government and concessionaire.
{"title":"Modeling optimal thresholds for minimum traffic guarantee in public–private partnership (PPP) highway projects","authors":"Zhenyao Wu, S. Hanaoka, B. Shuai","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2021.2015498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2021.2015498","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Optimal upper and lower thresholds model for traffic guarantee are proposed to optimize the risk allocation between a government and a concessionaire considering the perspective of lenders and the risk tolerances of the participants. In this study, the condition for the lender to provide the loan is that the default probability of the project does not exceed the acceptable maximum default probability of the lender. The proposed model uses risk weights to reflect the risk tolerances of government and the concessionaire and adopts a Gini coefficient for risk to describe the rationality of risk allocation. The application of the model to a highway project shows that a traffic guarantee with optimal thresholds effectively balances the project risks for both the government and concessionaire.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"52 - 74"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48302166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-08DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2021.2000086
Sergio Cabrales, R. Bautista, Isabella Madiedo, M. Galindo
Abstract Weather derivatives are financial instruments that can be used by organizations or individuals to hedge risks associated with adverse weather conditions. Weather conditions can directly decrease profits by affecting the volume of sales or costs. This paper develops a methodology for temperature option pricing in equatorial regions. In this approach, temperature is forecast by combining deterministic and stochastic models. We find that forecasting daily temperature with a model that combines a truncated third-order Fourier series with a mean reversion stochastic process proves the most accurate for pricing the options. The methodology is calibrated with data gathered in Bogotá, Colombia, using Monte Carlo simulations.
{"title":"A methodology for temperature option pricing in the equatorial regions","authors":"Sergio Cabrales, R. Bautista, Isabella Madiedo, M. Galindo","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2021.2000086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2021.2000086","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Weather derivatives are financial instruments that can be used by organizations or individuals to hedge risks associated with adverse weather conditions. Weather conditions can directly decrease profits by affecting the volume of sales or costs. This paper develops a methodology for temperature option pricing in equatorial regions. In this approach, temperature is forecast by combining deterministic and stochastic models. We find that forecasting daily temperature with a model that combines a truncated third-order Fourier series with a mean reversion stochastic process proves the most accurate for pricing the options. The methodology is calibrated with data gathered in Bogotá, Colombia, using Monte Carlo simulations.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"96 - 111"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47518366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-08DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2021.2000685
F. Lefley, P. Marešová, Eva Hamplová, V. Janeček
Abstract This article extends the project-engineering management/post-audit literature into the field of business ethics and board gender diversity. As a result, it fills an important gap in the literature. Board gender diversity is an important issue with ramifications on corporate decision-making. Based on a sample of 163 UK small-medium enterprises (SMEs), our research shows differences between gender diverse (GD) boards and male-only boards in post-audit (P-A) practices. GD boards conduct more post-audits and adopt a more formal approach to post-audit procedures. There are significant differences between the two board types concerning the reasons for undertaking post-audits and the non-adoption of post-audits (P-As). An interesting observation is in the area of risk aversion, as we find an inconsistency between those SMEs that conduct P-As and those that do not. This inconsistency may reflect the earlier literature, which is inconclusive in its findings concerning females’ attitudes to risk. A further interesting observation from the data analysis shows that GD Boards appear to be more focused, while male boards are more diverse in their responses. This article is of relevance and general interest to engineering economists in an investment appraisal, P-A, project management, and governance environment, fostering diversity and equality in regulating corporate activities, assisting practitioners and policy-makers in understanding the importance of monitoring capital projects, and the role played by gender-diverse boards.
{"title":"The influence of gender-diverse boards on post-audit practices: A UK SME study","authors":"F. Lefley, P. Marešová, Eva Hamplová, V. Janeček","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2021.2000685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2021.2000685","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article extends the project-engineering management/post-audit literature into the field of business ethics and board gender diversity. As a result, it fills an important gap in the literature. Board gender diversity is an important issue with ramifications on corporate decision-making. Based on a sample of 163 UK small-medium enterprises (SMEs), our research shows differences between gender diverse (GD) boards and male-only boards in post-audit (P-A) practices. GD boards conduct more post-audits and adopt a more formal approach to post-audit procedures. There are significant differences between the two board types concerning the reasons for undertaking post-audits and the non-adoption of post-audits (P-As). An interesting observation is in the area of risk aversion, as we find an inconsistency between those SMEs that conduct P-As and those that do not. This inconsistency may reflect the earlier literature, which is inconclusive in its findings concerning females’ attitudes to risk. A further interesting observation from the data analysis shows that GD Boards appear to be more focused, while male boards are more diverse in their responses. This article is of relevance and general interest to engineering economists in an investment appraisal, P-A, project management, and governance environment, fostering diversity and equality in regulating corporate activities, assisting practitioners and policy-makers in understanding the importance of monitoring capital projects, and the role played by gender-diverse boards.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"112 - 130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48974193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-27DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2021.1995093
Jeong-Gi Lee, Deok-Joo Lee, Piao Ri, Kyung-Taek Kim, Sung-joon Park
Abstract Recently, as the effective use of research equipment has been regarded as a prerequisite condition to maximize research and development (R&D) outcomes, the problem of replacing aging or obsolete research equipment has become important. The purpose of this article is to assess the economic life of R&D equipment empirically using data gathered from public R&D institutes in Korea. We developed a systematic model to apply traditional engineering economic concepts and estimated the economic service life of research equipment based on size and utilization purpose of the equipment. Finally, this study suggests a policy scheme for efficient replacement of research equipment based on our estimation results.
{"title":"Case study: An assessment of the economic service life of research equipment in the Korean public research institutes","authors":"Jeong-Gi Lee, Deok-Joo Lee, Piao Ri, Kyung-Taek Kim, Sung-joon Park","doi":"10.1080/0013791X.2021.1995093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2021.1995093","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recently, as the effective use of research equipment has been regarded as a prerequisite condition to maximize research and development (R&D) outcomes, the problem of replacing aging or obsolete research equipment has become important. The purpose of this article is to assess the economic life of R&D equipment empirically using data gathered from public R&D institutes in Korea. We developed a systematic model to apply traditional engineering economic concepts and estimated the economic service life of research equipment based on size and utilization purpose of the equipment. Finally, this study suggests a policy scheme for efficient replacement of research equipment based on our estimation results.","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"67 1","pages":"131 - 156"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42426334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/0013791x.2021.2005939
{"title":"Nominations are being accepted for Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers Wellington Award","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/0013791x.2021.2005939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791x.2021.2005939","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"66 1","pages":"346 - 346"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43188358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/0013791x.2021.2005938
{"title":"Nominations are being accepted for American Society for Engineering Education National Engineering Economy Teaching Excellence Award","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/0013791x.2021.2005938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791x.2021.2005938","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49210,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Economist","volume":"66 1","pages":"347 - 347"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46359540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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