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Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 in South Africa Using Mathematical Modeling 利用数学模型评估南非疫苗接种对COVID-19的影响
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150604
M. Kinyili, J. Munyakazi, A. Mukhtar
The unexpected continuing mushrooming tendency of the COVID-19 epidemic calls for alarm in the entire globe especially with the cropping up of more divergent contagious variants being witnessed. On top of the many non-pharmaceutical measures put in place for containment of the pandemic, pharmacological measures have been incorporated in the battle against the SARS-CoV-2 especially with the commencement of vaccination in the early December 2020. This study develops a deterministic compartmental model that incorporates vaccination as a measure to combat the spread of COVID-19 epidemic. We use the model particularly to assess the potential impact of vaccination in shattering the chain of transmission of the virus in South Africa. Verification of the model is carried out by performing its best fit to cumulative COVID-19 positive cases data as reported by the government of the Republic of South Africa utilizing the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm implemented in fitR package. With some vaccines already being under utility while other are being developed, we consider two major vaccine efficacy scenarios. One scenario accounts for general hypothetical vaccines with 20%,50%,65% and 85% case efficacy. The other scenario considers the Johnson and Johnson’s Janssen vaccine with its distinctive efficacy levels as reported to act against the 501Y.V2 variant. The sensitivity analysis and simulations for the model reveal that the cumulative infections decline drastically with increased extent of vaccination at each level of the vaccine efficacy.The study fundamentally discovers that vaccinating approximately 20% of the population with a vaccine of at least 60% efficacy would be sufficient in elimination of the pandemic over relatively shorter time. Moreover, with J&J vaccine maintaining its efficacious level against the 501Y.V2 variant, it would be the best vaccine to shortly eradicate the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa © 2021 NSP Natural Sciences Publishing Cor.
2019冠状病毒病疫情出人意料地持续呈雨后春笋般的趋势，在全球范围内引起了警惕，特别是在出现更多不同传染性变体的情况下。除了为遏制大流行而采取的许多非药物措施外，药物措施已被纳入抗击SARS-CoV-2的斗争，特别是在2020年12月初开始接种疫苗之后。本研究建立了一个确定性区隔模型，将疫苗接种作为对抗COVID-19流行病传播的一项措施。我们特别使用该模型来评估疫苗接种在粉碎南非病毒传播链方面的潜在影响。利用fitR软件包中实现的最大似然估计算法，对南非共和国政府报告的COVID-19累计阳性病例数据进行最佳拟合，从而对模型进行验证。由于一些疫苗已经投入使用，而另一些疫苗正在开发中，我们考虑了两种主要的疫苗效力情景。一种情况是假设一般疫苗的有效率分别为20%、50%、65%和85%。另一种情况是，据报道，强生公司的杨森疫苗具有独特的功效水平，可以对抗501Y。V2变体。模型的敏感性分析和仿真结果表明，在疫苗效力的各个水平上，随着接种程度的增加，累积感染急剧下降。这项研究从根本上发现，为大约20%的人口接种至少60%效力的疫苗，就足以在相对较短的时间内消除大流行。此外，强生公司的疫苗对501Y保持了有效水平。V2变体，它将是短期内消除南非COVID-19流行病的最佳疫苗©2021 NSP自然科学出版公司。
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引用次数: 5
The Finite Bessel Transforms 有限贝塞尔变换
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150606
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引用次数: 1
Decomposition Matrices for the Spin Characters of the Symmetric Group 23 ≤ n ≤ 24 对称群23≤n≤24的自旋特征分解矩阵
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150608
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引用次数: 1
Definition of a Three-Pass Protocol using the Lieb-Liniger Model 用Lieb-Liniger模型定义三通道协议
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150601
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引用次数: 1
Statistical Inference under Copula Approach of Accelerated Dependent Generalized Inverted Exponential Failure Time with Progressive Hybrid Censoring Scheme 基于Copula方法的渐进混合Censoring加速相关广义逆指数失效时间的统计推断
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150603
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引用次数: 3
An Application of the Weibull-Poisson Long-Term Survival Regression Model 威布尔-泊松长期生存回归模型的应用
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150610
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引用次数: 0
On Dynamical Analysis of a Prey-Diseased Predator Model with Refuge in Prey 一个有避难所的捕食者模型的动力学分析
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150605
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引用次数: 1
The Interval Vectors of χ2 Sequence Space Defined by Musielak Orlicz Function Musielak-Orlitz函数定义的χ2序列空间的区间向量
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150602
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引用次数: 0
On the Determination of Spacelike Ruled and Developable Surfaces in Minkowski 3-Space 闵可夫斯基三维空间中类空间直纹曲面和可展曲面的确定
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150609
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Magnetic Field on Boundary Layer Nano-fluid Flow Over Stretching Sheet 磁场对拉伸薄板边界层纳米流体流动的影响
Q2 Mathematics
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.18576/amis/150607
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引用次数: 7
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