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Penalized quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for extreme value models with application to flood frequency analysis 极值模型的惩罚拟极大似然估计及其在洪水频率分析中的应用
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2020-06-03 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-020-00379-y
Axel Bücher, J. Lilienthal, Paul Kinsvater, R. Fried
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引用次数: 1
Extremal linkage networks 极端联动网络
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-021-00433-3
M. Heydenreich, C. Hirsch
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引用次数: 1
Priority statement and some properties of t-lgHill estimator t-lgHill估计量的优先级声明和一些性质
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-020-00375-2
M. Stehlík, J. Kiselák, M. Vaiciulis, P. Jordanova, L. N. Soza, Z. Fabián, P. Hermann, L. Střelec, Andrés Rivera, S. Girard, Sebastián Torres
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引用次数: 1
Exact asymptotics of component-wise extrema of two-dimensional Brownian motion 二维布朗运动分量极值的精确渐近性
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-020-00387-y
K. Dȩbicki, L. Ji, T. Rolski
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引用次数: 10
Limit theorems for branching processes with immigration in a random environment 随机环境中带移民分支过程的极限定理
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2020-02-03 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-022-00443-9
Bojan Basrak, P. Kevei
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引用次数: 4
On distributionally robust extreme value analysis 分布鲁棒极值分析
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2020-01-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-019-00371-1
J. Blanchet, Fei He, Karthyek Murthy
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引用次数: 28
Threshold selection and trimming in extremes. 阈值选择和极端修剪。
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-020-00385-0
Martin Bladt, Hansjörg Albrecher, Jan Beirlant

We consider removing lower order statistics from the classical Hill estimator in extreme value statistics, and compensating for it by rescaling the remaining terms. Trajectories of these trimmed statistics as a function of the extent of trimming turn out to be quite flat near the optimal threshold value. For the regularly varying case, the classical threshold selection problem in tail estimation is then revisited, both visually via trimmed Hill plots and, for the Hall class, also mathematically via minimizing the expected empirical variance. This leads to a simple threshold selection procedure for the classical Hill estimator which circumvents the estimation of some of the tail characteristics, a problem which is usually the bottleneck in threshold selection. As a by-product, we derive an alternative estimator of the tail index, which assigns more weight to large observations, and works particularly well for relatively lighter tails. A simple ratio statistic routine is suggested to evaluate the goodness of the implied selection of the threshold. We illustrate the favourable performance and the potential of the proposed method with simulation studies and real insurance data.

我们考虑从极值统计中的经典Hill估计中去除低阶统计量,并通过重新缩放剩余项来补偿它。作为修剪程度函数的这些修剪统计的轨迹在最佳阈值附近是相当平坦的。对于规则变化的情况,然后重新审视尾部估计中的经典阈值选择问题,既可以通过修剪的Hill图在视觉上进行,也可以通过最小化预期经验方差在数学上进行。这使得经典Hill估计器的阈值选择过程变得简单,从而避免了对某些尾部特征的估计,而这通常是阈值选择的瓶颈。作为副产品,我们推导出尾指数的另一种估计器,它将更多的权重分配给大的观测值,并且对于相对较轻的尾巴特别有效。提出了一种简单的比率统计例程来评价阈值的隐含选择的优劣。我们用模拟研究和真实保险数据说明了该方法的良好性能和潜力。
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引用次数: 5
Estimation and uncertainty quantification for extreme quantile regions 极端分位数区域的估计与不确定度量化
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2019-12-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-019-00364-0
B. Beranger, S. Padoan, S. Sisson
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引用次数: 7
Editorial: EVA 2019 data competition on spatio-temporal prediction of Red Sea surface temperature extremes 编辑:EVA 2019红海表面极端温度时空预测数据竞赛
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2019-12-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-019-00369-9
Raphael Huser
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引用次数: 23
Critical branching processes in random environment with immigration: survival of a single family 移民随机环境中的临界分支过程:单个家庭的生存
IF 1.3 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10687-021-00413-7
C. Smadi, V. Vatutin
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引用次数: 4
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Extremes
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