Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

Flooding poses a persistent challenge in Bangladesh, where complete prevention remains difficult due to its geographical and climatic conditions. This study integrates the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to create a detailed flood susceptibility map for the Sylhet division in northern Bangladesh. The primary goal is to classify the region into distinct flood susceptibility zones, providing valuable insights for improving flood risk management, mitigation, and preparedness strategies. The study evaluates 12 critical flood-influencing parameters, including elevation, slope, topographic wetness index (TWI), precipitation, drainage density, proximity to roads and rivers, vegetation, land use and land cover (LULC), and soil type. These factors were chosen based on their established relevance to flood dynamics, with data sourced from reliable spatial databases to ensure accuracy. Using AHP, weights were assigned to each parameter based on expert input, reflecting their relative importance in flood risk. These weighted factors were then integrated using GIS overlay analysis and weighted linear combination techniques to generate a flood susceptibility map. The results show that approximately 35.27% of the Sylhet division, particularly the northern regions and the low-lying Haor basin, fall into the “high” flood susceptibility categories. These areas are highly vulnerable due to their flat topography, proximity to major rivers, and inadequate drainage systems. In contrast, the southern and southwestern areas, accounting for around 7.45% of the region, exhibit “low” flood susceptibility, benefiting from higher elevations and better natural drainage. This flood susceptibility map serves as an essential tool for identifying high-risk areas, supporting targeted flood mitigation efforts, and enhancing disaster preparedness. By providing a scientific foundation for effective flood management, the study aids decision-makers in reducing flood impacts and promoting the sustainable development of flood-prone regions in northern Bangladesh.

While natural flood management (NFM) as a flood mitigation strategy is becoming widely used, there remains a lack of evidence regarding the effectiveness of different NFM scenarios under high flow events. To demonstrate how different types and extents of NFM interventions interact to flood peaks at larger catchment scales, combined scenarios of existing NFM interventions and an ideal maximum woodland scenario were modelled in the Upper Aire, northern England, using a coupled model that integrates Spatially Distributed TOPMODEL (SD-TOPMODEL) with a 2D hydrodynamic model (Flood Modeller 2D) at an 81.4 km² catchment. The coupled model exhibited a strong fit with observed data (NSE up to 0.95), effectively capturing flood peaks and peak shapes. Leaky dams were found to be more effective at delaying flood peaks with mean values ranging from 8.6 to 60 min than reducing peak discharge (mean values ranging from 0.53% to 1.84%), though these effects were inversely proportional and influenced by tributary characteristics such as channel gradient. Simulations applying multiple NFM interventions consistently demonstrated positive flood mitigation impacts, including reduced peak discharge up to 2.59% and delayed peaks up to 30 min, while inundation depths reduced by 0.5 m in most areas, with inundation extent reduction at critical points in an urban area. The study demonstrated the utility of the coupled model for evaluating NFM strategies while emphasising the need for further validation and exploration of systematic interventions at larger catchment scales. By providing insights into the interactions between NFM interventions and catchment characteristics, this research contributes to the optimisation of flood risk management strategies and informs future policy development.

The number of individuals exposed to flooding is increasing and is projected to increase in the future. Catastrophic events like the July 2021 flood in Germany's Ahr Valley (Rhineland-Palatinate) illustrate the severe and often long-lasting mental health impacts such disasters can cause. However, research on the psychological consequences of extreme flooding remains less developed than studies on physical damage. Gaining a clearer understanding of individual mental burden following such events is essential for tailoring recovery efforts to address mental health needs effectively. This study investigates how various factors—including flood characteristics, circumstances of the recovery process, personal characteristics, perceptions, and sociodemographic characteristics—affect self-reported mental burden. Using binary logistic regression, we analyzed responses from 277 individuals affected by the July 2021 flood in the Ahrweiler district. Results show that even 18 months after the event, 42.6% of respondents continued to experience high to very high levels of mental burden. Interestingly, the analysis found that sociodemographic variables—particularly, health status—and personal characteristics and perceptions (e.g., persistent mental preoccupation) had a greater impact on mental burden than the characteristics of the flood or the reconstruction process. Considering the strong impact of health status, health monitoring of affected populations may help identify individuals at greater risk, ensuring timely and targeted mental health interventions. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating long-term psychosocial support into disaster recovery strategies.

Flood risk management (FRM) strategies in many developed countries increasingly focus on building flood resilience at property, community, and national levels. However, existing research on community flood resilience (CFR) has thus far inadequately addressed the social dynamics underpinning interactions among key resilience dimensions. Despite limited recognition of the social dimension, factors such as social capital and sociocultural dynamics remain insufficiently explored, warranting further investigation. This study employs a modified preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) to critically review and synthesize research gaps, before presenting an innovative social capital oriented framework to evaluate CFR. While infrastructure, economic, environmental, human, and governance dimensions play significant roles, the proposed framework emphasizes the foundational role of social capital and sociocultural factors, including norms, values, and identities, in shaping resilience outcomes and actions. These factors influence the success or failure of resilience-building efforts, particularly in diverse, deprived communities, such as those with nonnative speaking populations. This innovative framework offers insights for multisectoral stakeholders, including flood risk managers, engineers, surveyors, property owners, and local authorities, to address persistent challenges in resilience-building activities and improve intervention outcomes.

Coastal cities face increasing flood hazards due to climate change. Physical infrastructures, such as levees, are commonly used to reduce flood hazards. To effectively manage flood risks, it is important to understand the degree to which physical infrastructures change both hazard and exposure. For example, many studies suggest that levee construction causes an overall increase in risk because levees promote exposure growth to a greater degree than they reduce flood hazards. Although this so-called “levee effect” is widely studied, there are knowledge gaps surrounding how uncertainties related to levee construction and flood risk translate into the occurrence and strength of the levee effect in coastal communities. Here, we use agent-based modeling to simulate the influence of flood risk information pathways on the dynamics around the levee effect, first under idealized conditions and then within a real-world coastal case study. We finally conduct a global sensitivity analysis to identify which model factors contribute to the strength of the levee effect. We find that, under idealized conditions, the strength of the levee effect is highly sensitive to economic (e.g., population growth) and engineering (e.g., levee failure) factors. However, under more complex coastal conditions, factors related to household behavior (e.g., risk aversion) are more influential on the strength of the levee effect. Overall, our findings emphasize the importance of capturing the interactions and uncertainties among multiple behavioral, economic, and engineering factors when measuring flood risk in coastal communities.

Floods are one of nature's most disturbing catastrophes, resulting in infrastructure damage, property devastation, and mortality. In Addis Ababa, flooding has significantly impacted residents and caused millions' worth of property damage in the last decade alone. It is continuously threatening and affecting city residents. This study focused on the spatial modeling of floods and the identification of areas susceptible to flood hazards in the city. Geographic information system (GIS) techniques combined with the information gain ratio (IGR) method were employed in this study. Five major flood hazard factors were identified: elevation, slope, rainfall, drainage density, and distance from drainage channels. The results show that 1.3% (7.1 km²) of the area is highly susceptible to floods, 29.4% (159 km²) is highly susceptible to heavy rains, 56% (302 km²) of the area is moderately susceptible, 12.5% (67.3 km²) of the area has low susceptibility, and less than 1% (4.2 km²) has very low susceptibility. Slope is the most influential factor (42.74%), followed by drainage density (28.21%), distance from drainage channels (18.8%), rainfall (7.69%), and elevation (2.56%). The sub-cities of Nifas Silk Lafto and Akaki Kality are the most susceptible to flood hazards; areas with steep slopes trigger high runoff during heavy rainy periods and cause flood hazards on gentle slope surfaces. It is recommended that to improve the accuracy of identifying susceptible flood-hazard locations, flooding simulation should be performed in conjunction with other variables and rainfall data (such as rainfall duration and intensity). Nevertheless, this research provides recommendations to municipal administration decision-makers regarding strategic management in the prioritization of flood-hazard zones.

Asher, M., M. Trigg, S. Böing, and C. Birch. 2025. “The Sensitivity of Urban Pluvial Flooding to the Temporal Distribution of Rainfall Within Design Storms.” Journal of Flood Risk Management 18, no. 3: e70097. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70097.

In the list of authors for the paper, Steven Böing was incorrectly listed as Steven Boïng.

The online version of this article has been corrected accordingly.

We apologize for this error.

The integration of building-level floodproofing into flood risk management frameworks is gaining increasing recognition. As property owners ultimately decide on implementation, and financial incentives can drive adoption, a critical gap remains: the absence of Building-Specific, Context-Sensitive, Micro-Scale Risk Assessment (BC_MRA) frameworks that effectively support property owners and policymakers in their decision-making. This study introduces a BC_MRA framework alongside a straightforward yet expandable risk-based incentive structure, representing an innovative approach to enhancing property-level floodproofing, hereby advancing flood resilience research. A key contribution is a systematic methodology that contextualizes all the components of micro-scale flood risk assessment and the process for assessing the effectiveness of floodproofing interventions. The framework is applied to a case study in Pesaro, Italy, where dry and wet floodproofing strategies' financial viability and risk reduction potential are evaluated in response to riverine flood risk. Results underscore the importance of BC_MRA to inform effective micro-scale flood mitigation, revealing that expected annual damage is not solely dependent on proximity to the river but is also significantly influenced by building-specific vulnerability to flooding. Furthermore, wet floodproofing consistently resulted in longer payback periods compared with dry floodproofing, rendering it economically unviable for any of the buildings studied.

Forest cover within catchments is a widely adopted Nature-based Solution (NbS) for flood mitigation, offering hydrological benefits such as rainfall interception, enhanced infiltration, and reduced overland flow. Despite its recognized potential, quantitative reviews remain limited, especially at the catchment scale, with effectiveness varying by spatial scale, forest type, and climate. This review synthesizes 50 international case studies involving forest-based NbS, selected through structured screening based on intervention type, catchment characteristics, and availability of quantitative flood metrics, and presents a detailed bibliometric and content analysis. Forest cover consistently impacts peak flow across catchments of all sizes, with a generalized linear relationship where the effect magnitude is approximately half the forest cover change. For example, a 20% increase in forest cover tends to reduce peak flow by 10% across small, medium, and large catchments. Across a range of catchment sizes, there are only minor differences in the mean peak flow reductions for different event intensities (up to 1% AEP). An asymmetric hydrological response is evident: deforestation consistently increases peak flows, whereas afforestation yields gradual reductions, which are shaped by forest maturity, spatial distribution, and modeling assumptions. Upstream distributed forest placements offer distinct hydrological benefits. These outcomes highlight the importance of conserving mature forests, preventing deforestation, and optimizing forest placement, while acknowledging potential adverse impacts on water availability during dry periods.

The World Bank is a leading global institution for disaster risk management, the bulk of which is dedicated to flood risk management (FRM). Due to the Bank's power as a lending agency and the global distribution of flood risks it has addressed, the Bank's project financial agreements (FAs) are an expression of a power relationship worthy of detailed investigation. These FAs present an opportunity in which the Bank could impose its policy preferences and set the parameters for FRM in recipient countries, thus illuminating both an important driver for change and the Bank's fundamental modus vivendi. This paper uses qualitative content analysis to investigate 52 FAs from 1975 to 2023, searching for patterns in the FRM measures they emphasise. We examine how FRM measures advocated by the Bank have changed over time, finding that the Bank has used its power to promote early adoption of integrated structural and non-structural FRM strategies in a mutually reinforcing complementary arrangement. The Bank advanced integrated FRM approaches well before other international bodies and national agencies and thus features as a world leader in this respect. We also find that common criticisms of neoliberalism and gender equality against the Bank are not entirely unfounded, but progress has occurred in these directions in recent years.