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Wealth heterogeneity in a closed pooled annuity fund 封闭式集合年金基金的财富异质性
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-26 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2023.2234916
Thomas Bernhardt, Ge Qu
The stability of income payments in a pooled annuity fund is studied. In those funds, members receive a fluctuating income depending on their experienced mortality in exchange for their pension savings. The focus is on describing the influence of different initial savings on the ability of the fund to provide a stable income in retirement. Because of this, members coincide in their characteristics except for their initial savings. We identify a term, which we dub ``implied number of homogeneous members'', that directly links the initial savings to the size of the income fluctuations. Our main contribution is the analysis of this term and the development of a criterion to answer the question of whether or not a given group of same-aged people should pool their funds together.
研究了集合年金基金收益支付的稳定性。在这些基金中,成员根据他们的死亡经验获得波动的收入,以换取他们的养恤金储蓄。重点是描述不同的初始储蓄对基金在退休时提供稳定收入的能力的影响。正因为如此,成员除了最初的储蓄外,他们的特征是一致的。我们确定了一个术语,我们称之为“同质成员的隐含数量”,它将初始储蓄与收入波动的大小直接联系起来。我们的主要贡献是对这一术语进行分析,并制定一项标准,以回答某一特定年龄组的人是否应该把他们的资金集中起来的问题。
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引用次数: 2
Fractional inhomogeneous multi-state models in life insurance 人寿保险中的分数非均匀多状态模型
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1998921
Martin Bladt
In this paper, we demonstrate through the use of matrix calculus a transparent analysis of fractional inhomogeneous Markov models for life insurance where transition matrices commute. The resulting formulae are intuitive matrix generalizations of their single-state counterparts, and the absorption times are matrix versions of well-known scalar distributions. A further advantage of this approach is that it allows extending the analysis to the non-Markovian case where sojourns are Mittag-Leffler distributed, and where the absorption times are fractional phase-type distributed. Considering deterministic time transforms gives rise to fractional inhomogeneous phase-type distributions as absorption times. The latter underlying processes are an example of a regime where not only the present but also the history of a policyholder influences its future evolution. The sub-exponential nature of stable distributions translates into the multi-state insurance model as a random longevity risk at any given state of the chain.
在本文中,我们通过使用矩阵演算证明了一个透明的分析分数阶非齐次马尔可夫模型的人寿保险,其中转移矩阵交换。所得公式是它们的单态对应物的直观矩阵推广,吸收时间是众所周知的标量分布的矩阵版本。这种方法的另一个优点是,它允许将分析扩展到非马尔可夫情况,其中逗留是Mittag-Leffler分布的,并且吸收时间是分数相型分布的。考虑确定性时间变换会产生分数阶非均匀相型分布作为吸收时间。后一种潜在的过程是一个例子,在这个制度中,不仅投保人的现在,而且投保人的历史也会影响其未来的演变。稳定分布的次指数性质转化为多状态保险模型,作为链的任意给定状态下的随机寿命风险。
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引用次数: 1
Consistent development patterns 一致的开发模式
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1978535
W. Neuhaus
Traditional claim estimation in general insurance works with accident year cohorts and development patterns. For the impending International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 Insurance Contracts and often for reinsurance purposes, claim estimates must be split by contract year. This paper proposes to add contract year as a cohort classifier and to adjust the development patterns accordingly. To this end, we use the continuous time models of Hesselager and Norberg. Having contract year as an additional cohort classifier, display of claim estimates by contract year and/or accident year becomes a simple matter of summation across the appropriate dimensions. The continuous time model also enables us to derive mutually consistent development patterns for discrete time intervals of different length, such as years and quarters. In addition to delivering consistent development patterns in discrete time, continuous time modelling offers the advantage of requiring only a fixed number of model parameters. Although most of the derivations in this paper are explained in terms of claim numbers, the mechanics can also be applied to claim payments.
传统的一般保险理赔估算具有事故年份队列和发展模式。对于即将实施的国际财务报告准则(IFRS) 17保险合同,以及通常用于再保险目的,索赔估计必须按合同年度划分。本文建议增加合同年作为队列分类器,并对发展模式进行相应调整。为此,我们采用了Hesselager和Norberg的连续时间模型。将合同年作为额外的队列分类器,按合同年和/或事故年显示索赔估计就变成了一个简单的跨适当维度的求和问题。连续时间模型还使我们能够为不同长度的离散时间间隔(如年和季度)推导出相互一致的发展模式。除了在离散时间内交付一致的开发模式之外,连续时间建模还提供了只需要固定数量的模型参数的优势。虽然本文中的大多数推导都是根据索赔数字来解释的,但这种机制也可以应用于索赔支付。
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引用次数: 0
Dispersion modelling of mortality for both sexes with Tweedie distributions 用Tweedie分布对两性死亡率进行离散建模
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1980430
Jackie Li, David G. W. Pitt, Han Li
Past mortality experience has shown that the variability in mortality levels is not constant and can be higher than what the usual Poisson assumption implies. This paper proposes two ways to tackle the heterogeneity often present in mortality data. First, an additional dispersion submodel is developed and combined with the mean model to perform a joint modelling of the mean and the dispersion. Moreover, a flexible group of distributions called the Tweedie family is adopted to model the number of deaths. Using Australian and other mortality data, the results of this study show that this Tweedie double modelling framework can generally improve the fitting performance and also leads to a more adequate allowance for longevity risk when valuing pension annuities.
过去的死亡率经验表明,死亡率水平的变化不是恒定的,可能比通常的泊松假设所暗示的要高。本文提出了两种方法来解决死亡率数据中经常出现的异质性。首先,开发了一个额外的分散子模型,并将其与均值模型相结合,以执行均值和分散的联合建模。此外,还采用了一组称为Tweedie家族的灵活分布来模拟死亡人数。使用澳大利亚和其他死亡率数据,本研究的结果表明,这种Tweedie双重建模框架总体上可以提高拟合性能,并且在评估养老金年金时也可以更充分地考虑寿命风险。
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引用次数: 1
Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of multi-country mortality rates 多国死亡率的层次贝叶斯模型
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1979639
Tzuling Lin, Cary Chi‐liang Tsai
As world populations age along with speedy internationalization, forecasting mortality for multiple countries or populations with similar socio-economic conditions or close cultural connections has become essential. We apply the hierarchical Bayesian theory to the random walk with drift model governing the dynamics of the logarithm of central death rates for each age and population. Using the mortality data for both genders of three developed countries for an age span 25–84 and a series of fitting age-year windows, and further extending the data set to include both genders of twenty countries, we conclude that the proposed hierarchical Bayesian framework can more accurately capture the mortality trends and overall outperforms the Lee–Carter model and its three extensions in mortality forecasting. Grouping both genders of the twenty countries in three ways, we find that the expected improvement rates per year in the logarithm of central death rate for all twenty countries converge to about 2% except for the US.
随着世界人口老龄化和迅速的国际化,预测具有类似社会经济条件或密切文化联系的多个国家或人口的死亡率已变得至关重要。我们将层次贝叶斯理论应用于控制每个年龄和人口中心死亡率对数动态的随机游走漂移模型。利用三个发达国家25-84岁年龄段男女死亡率数据和一系列拟合的年龄年窗口,并进一步扩展数据集,包括20个国家的男女,我们得出结论,所提出的分层贝叶斯框架可以更准确地捕捉死亡率趋势,总体上优于Lee-Carter模型及其三个扩展在死亡率预测方面。通过三种方式对20个国家的男女进行分组,我们发现,除美国外,所有20个国家的中心死亡率对数的预期改善率每年都趋同于2%左右。
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引用次数: 1
Time-inconsistent view on a dividend problem with penalty 带惩罚的股利问题的时间不一致观点
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2161411
Josef Anton Strini, S. Thonhauser
We consider the dividend maximization problem including a ruin penalty in a diffusion environment. The additional penalty term is motivated by a constraint on dividend strategies. Intentionally, we use different discount rates for the dividends and the penalty, which causes time-inconsistency. This allows to study different types of constraints. For the diffusion approximation of the classical surplus process we derive an explicit equilibrium dividend strategy and the associated value function. Inspired by duality arguments, we can identify a particular equilibrium strategy such that for a given initial surplus the imposed constraint is fulfilled. Furthermore, we illustrate our findings with a numerical example.
研究了扩散环境下包含破产惩罚的股利最大化问题。额外惩罚期限的动机是对股息策略的约束。有意地,我们使用不同的贴现率的股息和罚款,这导致时间不一致。这允许研究不同类型的约束。对于经典剩余过程的扩散近似,我们导出了一个明确的均衡红利策略和相关的价值函数。受对偶论证的启发,我们可以确定一个特定的均衡策略,使得对于给定的初始盈余,所施加的约束得到满足。此外,我们用一个数值例子来说明我们的发现。
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引用次数: 0
Robust reinsurance contract with asymmetric information in a stochastic Stackelberg differential game 随机Stackelberg微分对策中信息不对称的鲁棒再保险契约
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1971756
Yu Yuan, Zhibin Liang, Xiaoru Han
In this paper, we determine a robust reinsurance contract from joint interests of the insurer and reinsurer under the framework of Stackelberg differential game. More specifically, the reinsurer is the leader of the game and decides on an optimal reinsurance premium to charge, while the insurer is the follower of the game and chooses an optimal proportional reinsurance to purchase. In order to defend the large shocks of wealth process, a loss-dependent premium principle is applied to the insurer. Meanwhile, we incorporate model uncertainty into the reinsurer's controlled surplus due to the asymmetric information. Under the time-consistent mean-variance criterion, we derive the robust reinsurance contract explicitly by solving the coupled extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman systems. It is interesting to prove that the optimal premium control for the reinsurer is determined by a time-adjusted variance principle. In addition, we find that the reinsurer would like to raise the reinsurance price to guard against the model uncertainty, which consequently decreases the insurer's reinsurance demand. Finally, further analyses are provided to show the necessity of considering the model uncertainty; otherwise, the reinsurance company will suffer a great loss of utility.
本文在Stackelberg微分对策的框架下,从保险人和再保险人的共同利益出发,确定了一个稳健的再保险合同。更具体地说,再保险公司是博弈的领导者,决定最优的再保险费率,而保险人是博弈的追随者,选择最优的比例再保险购买。为了抵御财富过程的巨大冲击,保险公司采用了损失相关的保费原则。同时,由于信息不对称,我们将模型不确定性纳入再保险人的控制盈余中。在时间一致均值-方差准则下,通过求解耦合扩展Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman系统,明确地导出了鲁棒再保险契约。证明再保险人的最优保费控制是由时间调整方差原则决定的。此外,我们发现再保险人倾向于提高再保险价格以防范模型的不确定性,从而降低了保险人的再保险需求。最后,进一步分析了考虑模型不确定性的必要性;否则,再保险公司将遭受巨大的效用损失。
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引用次数: 20
Actuarial-consistency and two-step actuarial valuations: a new paradigm to insurance valuation 精算一致性和两步精算估值:保险估值的新范式
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2090272
Karim Barigou, Daniël Linders, Fan Yang
ABSTRACT This paper introduces new valuation schemes called actuarial-consistent valuations for insurance liabilities which depend on both financial and actuarial risks, which imposes that all actuarial risks are priced via standard actuarial principles. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new actuarial-consistent procedure, which we call ‘two-step actuarial valuations’. In the case valuations are coherent, we show that actuarial-consistent valuations are equivalent to two-step actuarial valuations. We also discuss the connection with ‘two-step market-consistent valuations’ from Pelsser, A. & Stadje, M. [(2014). Time-consistent and market-consistent evaluations. Mathematical Finance 24(1), 25–65]. In particular, we discuss how the dependence structure between actuarial and financial risks impacts both actuarial-consistent and market-consistent valuations.
摘要本文介绍了一种新的保险负债估值方案,称为精算一致估值,它既依赖于财务风险,也依赖于精算风险,它要求所有精算风险都通过标准精算原则定价。我们建议通过一种新的精算一致性程序来扩展标准精算原则,我们称之为“两步精算估值”。在估值一致的情况下,我们证明了精算一致估值等同于两步精算估值。我们还讨论了与Pelsser, A. & Stadje, M.(2014)的“两步市场一致估值”的联系。时间一致和市场一致的评估。数学金融,24(1),25-65]。特别地,我们讨论了精算和金融风险之间的依赖结构如何影响精算一致性和市场一致性估值。
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引用次数: 2
Solving life-cycle problems with biometric risk by artificial insurance markets 通过人工保险市场解决生物特征风险的生命周期问题
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-19 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1966831
Christoph Hambel, H. Kraft, Claus Munk
We study canonical consumption-savings problems of an individual involving uninsurable biometric risk. These problems are important in many applications from insurance economics and actuarial science. Since biometric risk is uninsurable, closed-form solutions do not exist and thus the problems must be approached by numerical methods. We propose a powerful approach where the solution is obtained by optimizing over a parametrized family of consumption strategies. In settings with mortality risk, critical illness risk, and habit formation, our solution method outperforms the well-established finite-difference approach both in run time and in precision. Our method also delivers a precision measure and closed-form representations of the optimal controls.
我们研究了涉及不可保险生物特征风险的个体典型消费-储蓄问题。这些问题在保险经济学和精算科学的许多应用中都很重要。由于生物识别风险是不可保险的,因此不存在封闭形式的解决方案,因此必须通过数值方法来解决问题。我们提出了一种强大的方法,其中通过优化参数化的消费策略族来获得解决方案。在具有死亡风险、危重疾病风险和习惯形成的环境中,我们的解决方法在运行时间和精度上都优于公认的有限差分方法。我们的方法还提供了最优控制的精确测量和封闭形式表示。
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引用次数: 0
Portfolio optimization with wealth-dependent risk constraints 具有财富依赖风险约束的投资组合优化
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2021-08-17 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1962962
M. Escobar-Anel, Markus Wahl, R. Zagst
Regulatory risk constraints as in the European Solvency II standard formula for insurance companies may lead to wealth-dependent constraints on the investment strategy. We develop two solution approaches for portfolio optimization problems in continuous time with wealth-dependent constraint sets. In the first approach, we reduce the optimization problem to an associate problem with constraints independent of wealth and a different utility function. The associate problem is then solved using known convex duality results. In the second approach, we use a change of control. We apply these results to Solvency II constraint sets and find that even for an investor with HARA utility who inherently reduces risk in times of distress, the constraints help to prevent the investor from taking too much risk in an optimistic market. Furthermore, we measure significant loss in utility and reduction in risk caused by the constraints, and we also evaluate the trade-off between these two effects.
欧洲偿付能力II标准公式中对保险公司的监管风险约束可能导致对投资策略的财富依赖约束。研究了具有财富依赖约束集的连续时间投资组合优化问题的两种求解方法。在第一种方法中,我们将优化问题简化为具有独立于财富和不同效用函数的约束的关联问题。然后利用已知的凸对偶结果求解关联问题。在第二种方法中,我们使用控制变更。我们将这些结果应用于偿付能力II约束集,并发现即使对于具有HARA效用的投资者来说,他们在困境中固有地降低了风险,约束也有助于防止投资者在乐观的市场中承担过多的风险。此外,我们还测量了由约束引起的效用损失和风险降低,并评估了这两种影响之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
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