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q-scale function, Banach contraction principle, and ultimate ruin probability in a Markov-modulated jump–diffusion risk model 马尔可夫调制跳跃-扩散风险模型中的q标度函数、Banach收缩原理和最终破产概率
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-05-29 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2078221
Yuxuan Liu, Zhengjun Jiang, Yiwen Zhang
The paper investigates ultimate ruin probability, the probability that ruin time is finite, for an insurance company whose risk reserves follow a Markov-modulated jump–diffusion risk model. We use both the Banach contraction principle and q-scale functions to prove that ultimate ruin probability is the only fixed point of a contraction mapping and show that an iterative equation can be employed to calculate ultimate ruin probability by an iterative algorithm of approximating the fixed point. Using q-scale functions and the methodology from Gajek and Rudź [(2018). Banach contraction principle and ruin probabilities in regime-switching models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 80, 45–53] applied to the Markov-modulated jump–diffusion risk model, we get a more explicit Lipschitz constant in the Banach contraction principle and conveniently verify some similar results of their appendix in our case.
本文研究了风险准备金服从马尔可夫调制跳跃-扩散风险模型的保险公司的最终破产概率,即破产时间有限的概率。利用Banach收缩原理和q尺度函数证明了最终破产概率是收缩映射的唯一不动点,并证明了可以用迭代方程通过逼近不动点的迭代算法来计算最终破产概率。使用q尺度函数和Gajek和rudje[(2018)]的方法。制度切换模型中的Banach收缩原理与破产概率。应用于markov调制跳跃-扩散风险模型,我们在Banach收缩原理中得到了一个更明确的Lipschitz常数,并在我们的案例中方便地验证了其附录的一些类似结果。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal insurance strategy in a risk process under a safety level imposed on the increments of the process 在风险过程的增量上施加安全水平的风险过程中的最优保险策略
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-05-18 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2075282
A. Y. Golubin, V. Gridin
The problem of designing an optimal insurance strategy in a modification of the risk process with discrete time is investigated. This model introduces stage-by-stage probabilistic constraints (Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraints) on the insurer's capital increments during each stage. Also, the set of admissible insurances is determined by a safety level reflecting a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ capital increment at the previous stage. The mathematical expectation of the insurer's final capital is used as the objective functional. The total loss of the insurer at each stage is modeled by the Gaussian (normal) distribution with parameters depending on a seded loss function (or, in other words, an insurance policy) selected. In contrast to traditional dynamic optimization models for insurance strategies, the proposed approach allows to construct the value functions (and hence the optimal insurance policies) by simply solving a sequence of static insurance optimization problems. It is demonstrated that the optimal seded loss function at each stage depends on the prescribed value of the safety level: it is either a stop-loss insurance or conditional deductible insurance having a discontinuous point. In order to reduce ex post moral hazard, we also investigate the case, where both parties in an insurance contract are obligated to pay more for a larger realization of loss. This leads to that the optimal seeded loss functions are either stop-loss insurances or unconditional deductible insurances.
研究了具有离散时间的风险过程修正时最优保险策略的设计问题。该模型在每个阶段对保险公司的资本增量引入了逐阶段的概率约束(风险价值约束)。此外,可接受的保险集由反映前一阶段“好”或“坏”资本增量的安全水平决定。以保险公司最终资本的数学期望作为目标函数。保险人在每个阶段的总损失由高斯(正态)分布建模,其参数取决于所选择的种子损失函数(或换句话说,保险单)。与传统的保险策略动态优化模型相比,所提出的方法允许通过简单地解决一系列静态保险优化问题来构建价值函数(从而构建最优保险单)。证明了每一阶段的最优种子损失函数取决于安全等级的规定值:它要么是具有不连续点的止损保险,要么是有条件的免赔保险。为了减少事后道德风险,我们还研究了保险合同中双方有义务为更大的损失实现支付更多的情况。这导致最优种子损失函数要么是止损保险,要么是无条件免赔保险。
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引用次数: 0
Reserve-dependent Management Actions in life insurance 人寿保险中依赖储备的管理行为
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-04-25 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2061868
D. Falden, Anna Kamille Nyegaard
In a set-up of with-profit life insurance including bonus, we study the calculation of the market reserve, where Management Actions such as investment strategies and bonus allocation strategies depend on the reserve itself. Since the amount of future bonus depends on the retrospective savings account, the introduction of Management Actions that depend on the prospective market reserve results in an entanglement of retrospective and prospective reserves. We study the complications that arise due to the interdependence between retrospective and prospective reserves, and characterize the market reserve by a partial differential equation (PDE). We reduce the dimension of the PDE in the case of linearity, and furthermore, we suggest an approximation of the market reserve based on the forward rate. The quality of the approximation is studied in a numerical example.
在含红利的有利润寿险模型中,研究了市场准备金的计算,其中投资策略和红利分配策略等管理行为取决于准备金本身。由于未来奖金的数额取决于追溯性储蓄账户,因此引入依赖于预期市场准备金的管理措施导致了追溯性准备金和预期准备金的纠缠。我们研究了由于回顾储量和预期储量之间的相互依赖而产生的复杂性,并利用偏微分方程(PDE)来表征市场储量。在线性的情况下,我们降低了PDE的维度,此外,我们建议基于远期利率近似市场储备。通过数值算例研究了近似的质量。
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引用次数: 0
Variable annuity pricing, valuation, and risk management: a survey 可变年金定价、估值与风险管理:一项调查
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2049635
Runhuan Feng, Guojun Gan, Ning Zhang
Variable annuity is arguably the most complex individual retirement planning product in the financial market. Its intricacy stems from a variety of product features including investment options, guaranteed benefits, withdrawal options, etc. In many ways, variable annuities can be viewed as traditional life and annuity products at the next level of sophistication with added financial options. Despite a significant amount of publications by practitioners and academics on the subject matter, there have been few research papers that systematically exploit the basic principles underlying the operation of variable annuities. This survey paper aims to fill in the gap in the literature for an overview of state-of-the-art technology and recent trends in the development of variable annuities.
可变年金可以说是金融市场上最复杂的个人退休计划产品。它的复杂性源于各种各样的产品功能,包括投资选择、保证收益、退出选择等。在许多方面,可变年金可以被视为传统的人寿和年金产品,在更高的复杂程度上增加了财务选择。尽管从业人员和学者就该主题发表了大量的出版物,但很少有研究论文系统地利用了可变年金操作的基本原则。这篇调查论文旨在填补文献中的空白,以概述最先进的技术和可变年金发展的最新趋势。
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引用次数: 10
On the surplus management of funds with assets and liabilities in presence of solvency requirements 关于资金盈余管理与资产负债存在偿付能力要求
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2116725
Benjamin Avanzi, Pingfu Chen, L. Henriksen, Bernard Wong
In this paper, we consider a company whose assets and liabilities evolve according to a correlated bivariate geometric Brownian motion, such as in Gerber and Shiu [(2003). Geometric Brownian motion models for assets and liabilities: From pension funding to optimal dividends. North American Actuarial Journal 7(3), 37–56]. We determine what dividend strategy maximises the expected present value of dividends until ruin in two cases: (i) when shareholders won't cover surplus shortfalls and a solvency constraint [as in Paulsen (2003). Optimal dividend payouts for diffusions with solvency constraints. Finance and Stochastics 7(4), 457–473] is consequently imposed and (ii) when shareholders are always to fund any capital deficiency with capital (asset) injections. In the latter case, ruin will never occur and the objective is to maximise the difference between dividends and capital injections. Developing and using appropriate verification lemmas, we show that the optimal dividend strategy is, in both cases, of barrier type. Both value functions are derived in closed form. Furthermore, the barrier is defined on the ratio of assets to liabilities, which mimics some of the dividend strategies that can be observed in practice by insurance companies. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal strategies are shown. Results are illustrated.
在本文中,我们考虑一家公司,其资产和负债根据相关的二元几何布朗运动演变,如Gerber和Shiu[(2003)]。资产和负债的几何布朗运动模型:从养老基金到最优股息。北美精算学报,7(3),37-56。我们在两种情况下确定哪种股息策略最大化股息的预期现值,直到破产:(i)当股东不会支付盈余不足和偿付能力约束[如Paulsen(2003)]。具有偿付能力约束的扩散的最优股利支付。因此,金融与随机[7(4),457-473]和(ii)当股东总是通过资本(资产)注入来填补任何资本不足时。在后一种情况下,破产永远不会发生,其目标是使股息与资本注入之间的差异最大化。开发并使用适当的验证引理,我们证明在这两种情况下,最优股利策略都是障碍型的。这两个值函数都是以封闭形式推导出来的。此外,障碍是根据资产与负债的比率来定义的,这模仿了保险公司在实践中可以观察到的一些股息策略。证明了最优策略的存在性和唯一性。结果说明。
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引用次数: 0
Analytic valuation of GMDB options with utility based asset allocation 基于效用的资产配置GMDB期权分析估值
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-09 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2034127
Eric R. Ulm
A number of analytic solutions have been found for Variable Annuity Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit (GMDB) option values under a variety of mortality laws. To date, the solutions are for Risk-Neutral valuation only. Where policyholder decisions are allowed, it is assumed that they act to maximize the risk-neutral value of the GMDB. We examine situations where the asset allocation decisions are made to maximize expected utility rather than option value. We find analytic solutions for both return of premium and ratchet options at small values of bequest motive for a number of mortality laws.
在各种死亡规律下,对可变年金保证最低死亡收益(GMDB)期权值进行了分析。迄今为止,这些解决方案仅适用于风险中性估值。在允许保单持有人决策的情况下,假设他们的行为是为了最大化GMDB的风险中性价值。我们研究了资产配置决策是为了最大化预期效用而不是期权价值的情况。我们找到了在遗赠动机的小值条件下保费回报和棘轮期权的解析解。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal reinsurance pricing with ambiguity aversion and relative performance concerns in the principal-agent model 委托代理模型中具有歧义规避和相对绩效关注的最优再保险定价
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-02-24 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2026459
Ailing Gu, Shumin Chen, Zhongfei Li, F. Viens
This paper first studies the optimal reinsurance problems for two competitive insurers and then studies the optimal reinsurance premium pricing problem for their common reinsurer by using the dynamic programming technique. The two insurers are subject to common insurance systematic risk. Each purchases proportional or excess-of-loss reinsurance for risk control. They aim to maximize the expected utilities of their relative terminal wealth. With the insurers' optimal reinsurance strategies, the reinsurer decides the reinsurance premiums for each insurer, also aiming to maximize the expected utility of her terminal wealth. Thus, the optimal reinsurance pricing problem is formulated as a Stackelberg game between two competitive insurers and a reinsurer, where the reinsurer is the leader, and the insurers are followers. Besides, all three players take model ambiguity into account. We characterize the optimal strategies for the insurers and the reinsurer and provide some numerical examples to show the impact of competition and model ambiguity on the pricing of reinsurance contracts.
本文首先研究了两家竞争再保险公司的最优再保险问题,然后利用动态规划技术研究了两家竞争再保险公司的最优再保险保费定价问题。这两家保险公司面临共同的保险系统风险。各购买比例或超额损失再保险进行风险控制。他们的目标是最大化他们相对终端财富的预期效用。在保险人的最优再保险策略下,再保险人以其终端财富的预期效用最大化为目标,决定各保险人的再保险保费。因此,将最优再保险定价问题表示为两家竞争保险公司和一个再保险公司之间的Stackelberg博弈,其中再保险公司是领导者,保险公司是追随者。此外,这三种参与者都考虑了模型的模糊性。我们描述了保险公司和再保险公司的最优策略,并提供了一些数值例子来说明竞争和模型模糊对再保险合同定价的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Response versus gradient boosting trees, GLMs and neural networks under Tweedie loss and log-link Tweedie loss和log-link下的响应与梯度增强树、glm和神经网络
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-02-15 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2037016
Donatien Hainaut, J. Trufin, M. Denuit
Thanks to its outstanding performances, boosting has rapidly gained wide acceptance among actuaries. To speed up calculations, boosting is often applied to gradients of the loss function, not to responses (hence the name gradient boosting). When the model is trained by minimizing Poisson deviance, this amounts to apply the least-squares principle to raw residuals. This exposes gradient boosting to the same problems that lead to replace least-squares with Poisson Generalized Linear Models (GLM) to analyze low counts (typically, the number of reported claims at policy level in personal lines). This paper shows that boosting can be conducted directly on the response under Tweedie loss function and log-link, by adapting the weights at each step. Numerical illustrations demonstrate similar or better performances compared to gradient boosting when trees are used as weak learners, with a higher level of transparency since responses are used instead of gradients.
由于其优异的性能,助推技术迅速得到精算师的广泛认可。为了加快计算速度,增强通常应用于损失函数的梯度,而不是响应(因此称为梯度增强)。当模型通过最小化泊松偏差进行训练时,这相当于将最小二乘原理应用于原始残差。这就使梯度增强暴露于导致用泊松广义线性模型(GLM)代替最小二乘来分析低计数(通常是在个人线路的政策级别报告的索赔数量)的相同问题。本文表明,通过调整每一步的权值,可以直接对Tweedie损失函数和log-link下的响应进行增强。当树被用作弱学习器时,数值插图显示了与梯度增强相似或更好的性能,由于使用响应而不是梯度,因此具有更高的透明度。
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引用次数: 5
Robust reinsurance contract with learning and ambiguity aversion 基于学习和歧义规避的稳健再保险契约
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-02-09 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2030398
Duni Hu, Hailong Wang
We investigate the robust reinsurance demand and price under learning and ambiguity aversion. In the reinsurance contract, the insurer is ambiguity neutral and believes that he is perfectly informed, and the reinsurer is a Bayesian learner and is aware that even the filtered model is the best description of the data-generating process, might not forecast the future claims correctly. The ambiguity-averse reinsurer has a preference for reinsurance contract which is robust to model misspecification. Closed-form expressions for the robust reinsurance demand and price are derived. We find that both the reinsurer's one-sided learning and ambiguity aversion influence the structures and levels of the optimal reinsurance demand and price. Moreover, if the ambiguity-averse reinsurer specifies the suboptimal reinsurance contract as an ambiguity-neutral decision-maker, it will result in significant utility loss and the utility loss increases with ambiguity aversion level and Bayesian volatility.
研究了学习和歧义规避下的稳健再保险需求和价格。在再保险合同中,保险人是模糊中立的,并且相信他是完全知情的,而再保险人是贝叶斯学习者,并且意识到即使过滤模型是对数据生成过程的最佳描述,也可能无法正确预测未来的索赔。厌恶歧义的再保险人倾向于选择对模型错误规范具有鲁棒性的再保险合同。导出了稳健再保险需求和价格的封闭表达式。研究发现,再保险人的片面学习和歧义厌恶都会影响最优再保险需求和最优再保险价格的结构和水平。此外,如果厌恶模糊性的再保险人将次优再保险合同指定为模糊性中立的决策者,将导致显著的效用损失,且效用损失随厌恶模糊性水平和贝叶斯波动率的增加而增加。
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引用次数: 3
Pareto-optimal insurance under heterogeneous beliefs and incentive compatibility 异质信念与激励相容下的帕累托最优保险
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-02-02 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2022.2028185
Wenjun Jiang
This paper studies the design of Pareto-optimal insurance under the heterogeneous beliefs of the insured and insurer. To accommodate a wide range of belief heterogeneity, we allow the likelihood ratio function to be non-monotone. To prevent the ex post moral hazard issue, the incentive compatibility condition is exogenously imposed to restrict the indemnity function. An implicit characterization of the optimal indemnity function is presented first by using the calculus of variations. Based on the point-wise maximizer to the problem, we partition the domain of loss into disjoint pieces and derive the parametric form of the optimal indemnity function over each piece through its implicit characterization. The main result of this paper generalizes those in the literature and provides insights for related problems.
本文研究了被保险人和保险人异质信念下的帕累托最优保险设计问题。为了适应广泛的信念异质性,我们允许似然比函数是非单调的。为了防止事后道德风险问题,外生施加激励相容条件来限制赔偿功能。首先利用变分法给出了最优补偿函数的隐式表征。基于该问题的逐点最大化,我们将损失域划分为不相交的块,并通过其隐式表征推导出每个块上最优补偿函数的参数形式。本文的主要结论是对文献的总结和对相关问题的见解。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
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