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Risk-Averse Markov Decision Processes Through a Distributional Lens 从分布角度看风险厌恶马尔可夫决策过程
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2023.0211
Ziteng Cheng, Sebastian Jaimungal
By adopting a distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, we construct dynamic risk measures (DRMs) at the distributional level. We then apply these DRMs to investigate Markov decision processes, incorporating latent costs, random actions, and weakly continuous transition kernels. Furthermore, the proposed DRMs allow risk aversion to change dynamically. Under mild assumptions, we derive a dynamic programming principle and show the existence of an optimal policy in both finite and infinite time horizons. Moreover, we provide a sufficient condition for the optimality of deterministic actions. For illustration, we conclude the paper with examples from optimal liquidation with limit order books and autonomous driving.Funding: This work was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [Grants RGPAS-2018-522715 and RGPIN-2018-05705].
通过采用分布观点来看待不变法凸风险度量,我们在分布层面上构建了动态风险度量(DRMs)。然后,我们将这些 DRMs 应用于研究马尔可夫决策过程,其中包含了潜在成本、随机行动和弱连续的过渡核。此外,所提出的 DRM 允许风险规避发生动态变化。在温和的假设条件下,我们推导出了动态编程原理,并证明在有限和无限时间跨度内都存在最优政策。此外,我们还为确定性行动的最优性提供了充分条件。最后,我们以限价订单簿和自动驾驶的最优清算为例进行了说明:这项工作得到了加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会 [RGPAS-2018-522715 和 RGPIN-2018-05705] 的支持。
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引用次数: 0
On the Convex Formulations of Robust Markov Decision Processes 论鲁棒性马尔可夫决策过程的凸公式
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0284
Julien Grand-Clément, Marek Petrik
Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) are used for applications of dynamic optimization in uncertain environments and have been studied extensively. Many of the main properties and algorithms of MDPs, such as value iteration and policy iteration, extend directly to RMDPs. Surprisingly, there is no known analog of the MDP convex optimization formulation for solving RMDPs. This work describes the first convex optimization formulation of RMDPs under the classical sa-rectangularity and s-rectangularity assumptions. By using entropic regularization and exponential change of variables, we derive a convex formulation with a number of variables and constraints polynomial in the number of states and actions, but with large coefficients in the constraints. We further simplify the formulation for RMDPs with polyhedral, ellipsoidal, or entropy-based uncertainty sets, showing that, in these cases, RMDPs can be reformulated as conic programs based on exponential cones, quadratic cones, and nonnegative orthants. Our work opens a new research direction for RMDPs and can serve as a first step toward obtaining a tractable convex formulation of RMDPs.Funding: The work in the paper was supported, in part, by NSF [Grants 2144601 and 1815275]; and Agence Nationale de la Recherche [Grant 11-LABX-0047].
鲁棒马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)用于不确定环境中的动态优化应用,并已得到广泛研究。MDP 的许多主要特性和算法,如值迭代和策略迭代,都直接扩展到了 RMDP。令人惊讶的是,目前还没有已知的用于求解 RMDP 的 MDP 凸优化公式。本研究首次描述了在经典 sa-rectangularity 和 s-rectangularity 假设下的 RMDPs 凸优化公式。通过使用熵正则化和变量指数变化,我们推导出了一种变量和约束条件数量与状态和行动数量成多项式关系,但约束条件系数较大的凸优化公式。我们进一步简化了具有多面体、椭圆形或基于熵的不确定性集的 RMDPs 的表述,表明在这些情况下,RMDPs 可以重新表述为基于指数锥、二次锥和非负正交的圆锥程序。我们的工作为 RMDPs 开辟了一个新的研究方向,并为获得 RMDPs 的可控凸表述迈出了第一步:本文的部分研究工作得到了国家自然科学基金[Grants 2144601 and 1815275]和Agence Nationale de la Recherche [Grant 11-LABX-0047]的资助。
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引用次数: 0
Optimality Conditions in Control Problems with Random State Constraints in Probabilistic or Almost Sure Form 具有概率或几乎确定形式随机状态约束的控制问题中的最优性条件
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2023.0177
Caroline Geiersbach, René Henrion
In this paper, we discuss optimality conditions for optimization problems involving random state constraints, which are modeled in probabilistic or almost sure form. Although the latter can be understood as the limiting case of the former, the derivation of optimality conditions requires substantially different approaches. We apply them to a linear elliptic partial differential equation with random inputs. In the probabilistic case, we rely on the spherical-radial decomposition of Gaussian random vectors in order to formulate fully explicit optimality conditions involving a spherical integral. In the almost sure case, we derive optimality conditions and compare them with a model based on robust constraints with respect to the (compact) support of the given distribution.Funding: The authors thank the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Projects B02 and B04 in the “Sonderforschungsbereich/Transregio 154 Mathematical Modelling, Simulation and Optimization Using the Example of Gas Networks”] for support. C. Geiersbach acknowledges support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Germany’s Excellence Strategy–the Berlin Mathematics Research Center MATH+ Grant EXC-2046/1, Project 390685689]. R. Henrion acknowledges support from the Fondation Mathématique Jacques Hadamard [Program Gaspard Monge in Optimization and Operations Research, including support to this program by Electricité de France].
本文讨论了涉及随机状态约束的优化问题的最优性条件,这些约束是以概率或几乎确定的形式建模的。虽然后者可以理解为前者的极限情况,但最优化条件的推导需要本质上不同的方法。我们将它们应用于具有随机输入的线性椭圆偏微分方程。在概率情况下,我们依靠高斯随机向量的球面-径向分解来制定涉及球面积分的完全明确的最优性条件。在几乎确定的情况下,我们推导出最优条件,并与基于给定分布(紧凑)支持的稳健约束的模型进行比较:作者感谢德国联邦科学基金会 ["Sonderforschungsbereich/Transregio "项目中的 B02 和 B04 [以天然气网络为例的 154 数学建模、仿真和优化]] 的支持。C. Geiersbach 感谢德国科学基金会[德国卓越战略-柏林数学研究中心 MATH+ 资助 EXC-2046/1,项目 390685689]的支持。R. Henrion 感谢 Fondation Mathématique Jacques Hadamard [优化与运筹学 Gaspard Monge 计划,包括法国电力公司对该计划的支持]的资助。
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引用次数: 0
Large Independent Sets in Recursive Markov Random Graphs 递归马尔可夫随机图中的大独立集
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0215
Akshay Gupte, Yiran Zhu
Computing the maximum size of an independent set in a graph is a famously hard combinatorial problem that has been well studied for various classes of graphs. When it comes to random graphs, the classic Erdős–Rényi–Gilbert random graph [Formula: see text] has been analyzed and shown to have the largest independent sets of size [Formula: see text] with high probability (w.h.p.) This classic model does not capture any dependency structure between edges that can appear in real-world networks. We define random graphs [Formula: see text] whose existence of edges is determined by a Markov process that is also governed by a decay parameter [Formula: see text]. We prove that w.h.p. [Formula: see text] has independent sets of size [Formula: see text] for arbitrary [Formula: see text]. This is derived using bounds on the terms of a harmonic series, a Turán bound on a stability number, and a concentration analysis for a certain sequence of dependent Bernoulli variables that may also be of independent interest. Because [Formula: see text] collapses to [Formula: see text] when there is no decay, it follows that having even the slightest bit of dependency (any [Formula: see text]) in the random graph construction leads to the presence of large independent sets, and thus, our random model has a phase transition at its boundary value of r = 1. This implies that there are large matchings in the line graph of [Formula: see text], which is a Markov random field. For the maximal independent set output by a greedy algorithm, we deduce that it has a performance ratio of at most [Formula: see text] w.h.p. when the lowest degree vertex is picked at each iteration and also show that, under any other permutation of vertices, the algorithm outputs a set of size [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] and, hence, has a performance ratio of [Formula: see text].Funding: The initial phase of this research was supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant DMS-1913294].
计算图中独立集的最大大小是一个著名的组合难题,对各类图都有深入研究。说到随机图,经典的厄尔多斯-雷尼-吉尔伯特随机图 [公式:见正文] 已被分析并证明以高概率 (w.h.p.) 拥有最大大小的独立集 [公式:见正文]。我们定义了随机图[公式:见正文],其边缘的存在由马尔可夫过程决定,而马尔可夫过程也受衰变参数[公式:见正文]的控制。我们证明,对于任意[公式:见正文],w.h.p. [公式:见正文]具有大小为[公式:见正文]的独立集合。这是用谐音数列项的约束、稳定数的图兰约束以及伯努利因变量序列的集中分析推导出来的,伯努利因变量序列也可能是独立的。由于[式:见正文]在没有衰减时会坍缩为[式:见正文],因此在随机图构造中哪怕有一丁点的依赖性(任何[式:见正文])都会导致大的独立集的存在,因此,我们的随机模型在其边界值 r = 1 处有一个相变。这意味着[公式:见正文]的线图中存在大匹配,而[公式:见正文]是一个马尔可夫随机场。对于贪婪算法输出的最大独立集,我们推导出当每次迭代都选取最低度顶点时,其性能比最多为[式:见正文],同时还证明了在任何其他顶点排列下,该算法都会输出一个大小为[式:见正文]的集,其中[式:见正文],因此,其性能比为[式:见正文]:本研究的初始阶段得到了美国国家科学基金会[Grant DMS-1913294]的资助。
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引用次数: 0
Order Independence in Sequential, Issue-by-Issue Voting 逐期顺序表决中的顺序独立性
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0342
Alex Gershkov, Benny Moldovanu, Xianwen Shi
We study when the voting outcome is independent of the order of issues put up for vote in a spatial multidimensional voting model. Agents equipped with norm-based preferences that use a norm to measure the distance from their ideal policy vote sequentially and issue by issue via simple majority. If the underlying norm is generated by an inner product—such as the Euclidean norm—then the voting outcome is order independent if and only if the issues are orthogonal. If the underlying norm is a general one, then the outcome is order independent if the basis defining the issues to be voted upon satisfies the following property; for any vector in the basis, any linear combination of the other vectors is Birkhoff–James orthogonal to it. We prove a partial converse in the case of two dimensions; if the underlying basis fails this property, then the voting order matters. Finally, despite existence results for the two-dimensional case and for the general lp case, we show that nonexistence of bases with this property is generic.Funding: The research of A. Gershkov is supported by the Israel Science Foundation [Grant 1118/22]. The research of B. Moldovanu is supported by the German Science Foundation through the Hausdorff Center for Mathematics and The Collaborative Research Center Transregio 224. The research of X. Shi is supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
我们研究了在一个空间多维投票模型中,当投票结果与提交投票的议题顺序无关时的情况。代理人具有基于规范的偏好,这种偏好使用规范来衡量与理想政策的距离,并通过简单多数按顺序逐项投票。如果基本准则是由内积(如欧几里得准则)生成的,那么当且仅当问题是正交的,投票结果才与顺序无关。如果底层规范是一般规范,那么如果定义待表决问题的基础满足以下性质,则表决结果与顺序无关;对于基础中的任何向量,其他向量的任何线性组合都是伯克霍夫-詹姆斯正交的。我们证明了二维情况下的部分反义;如果底层基础不符合这一性质,那么投票顺序就很重要。最后,尽管在二维情况和一般 lp 情况下有存在性结果,我们还是证明了具有这一性质的基础的不存在性是通用的:A. Gershkov 的研究得到了以色列科学基金会 [1118/22 号拨款] 的支持。B. Moldovanu 的研究由德国科学基金会通过豪斯多夫数学中心和 Transregio 224 合作研究中心资助。X. Shi 的研究得到了加拿大社会科学与人文研究理事会的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Rockafellian Relaxation and Stochastic Optimization Under Perturbations 扰动下的 Rockafellian 放松和随机优化
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0122
Johannes O. Royset, Louis L. Chen, Eric Eckstrand
In practice, optimization models are often prone to unavoidable inaccuracies because of dubious assumptions and corrupted data. Traditionally, this placed special emphasis on risk-based and robust formulations, and their focus on “conservative” decisions. We develop, in contrast, an “optimistic” framework based on Rockafellian relaxations in which optimization is conducted not only over the original decision space but also jointly with a choice of model perturbation. The framework enables us to address challenging problems with ambiguous probability distributions from the areas of two-stage stochastic optimization without relatively complete recourse, probability functions lacking continuity properties, expectation constraints, and outlier analysis. We are also able to circumvent the fundamental difficulty in stochastic optimization that convergence of distributions fails to guarantee convergence of expectations. The framework centers on the novel concepts of exact and limit-exact Rockafellians, with interpretations of “negative” regularization emerging in certain settings. We illustrate the role of Phi-divergence, examine rates of convergence under changing distributions, and explore extensions to first-order optimality conditions. The main development is free of assumptions about convexity, smoothness, and even continuity of objective functions. Numerical results in the setting of computer vision and text analytics with label noise illustrate the framework.Funding: This work was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Mathematical Optimization Program) under the grant: “Optimal Decision Making under Tight Performance Requirements in Adversarial and Uncertain Environments: Insight from Rockafellian Functions.”
在实践中,优化模型往往容易因为可疑的假设和损坏的数据而出现不可避免的误差。传统上,这就特别强调基于风险和稳健的公式,以及它们对 "保守 "决策的关注。与此相反,我们开发了一种基于 Rockafellian 松弛的 "乐观 "框架,在该框架中,优化不仅在原始决策空间上进行,而且与模型扰动的选择共同进行。该框架使我们能够解决两阶段随机优化领域中概率分布不明确的挑战性问题,而无需相对完整的求助、缺乏连续性特性的概率函数、期望约束和离群值分析。我们还能规避随机优化中的基本难题,即分布的收敛性不能保证期望的收敛性。该框架以精确和极限精确 Rockafellians 的新概念为核心,并在某些情况下对 "负 "正则化进行了解释。我们说明了 Phi-divergence 的作用,考察了变化分布下的收敛率,并探索了一阶最优条件的扩展。主要发展摆脱了对目标函数的凸性、平滑性甚至连续性的假设。在计算机视觉和带有标签噪声的文本分析中的数值结果说明了这一框架:这项工作得到了空军科学研究办公室(数学优化计划)的资助:本文由空军科学研究办公室(数学优化计划)资助,资助项目为 "对抗性和不确定性环境下严格性能要求下的最优决策":Rockafellian 函数的启示"。
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引用次数: 0
Investment Timing and Technological Breakthroughs 投资时机与技术突破
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0022
Jean-Paul Décamps, Fabien Gensbittel, Thomas Mariotti
We study the optimal investment policy of a firm facing both technological and cash-flow uncertainty. At any point in time, the firm can irreversibly invest in a stand-alone technology or wait for a technological breakthrough. Breakthroughs occur when market conditions become favorable enough, exceeding a threshold value that is ex ante unknown to the firm. The Markov state variables for the optimal investment policy are the current market conditions and their historic maximum, and the firm optimally invests in the stand-alone technology only when market conditions deteriorate enough after reaching a maximum. The path-dependent return required for investing in the stand-alone technology is always higher than if no technological breakthroughs could occur and can take arbitrarily large values following certain histories. Decreases in development costs or increases in the value of the new technology make the firm more prone to bearing downside risk and delaying investment in the stand-alone technology.Funding: This research has benefited from financial support of the ANR [Programmes d’Investissements d’Avenir CHESS ANR-17-EURE-0010 and ANITI ANR-19-PI3A-0004] and the research foundation TSE-Partnership [Chaire Marchés des Risques et Création de Valeur, Fondation du Risque/SCOR].
我们研究的是一家同时面临技术和现金流不确定性的公司的最优投资政策。在任何时间点,企业都可以不可逆转地投资于一项独立技术或等待技术突破。当市场条件变得足够有利,超过企业事先未知的临界值时,突破就会发生。最优投资政策的马尔可夫状态变量是当前市场条件及其历史最大值,只有当市场条件在达到最大值后恶化到足够严重时,企业才会对独立技术进行最优投资。投资独立技术所需的路径依赖回报率总是高于不发生技术突破的情况,并且在某些历史条件下可以任意取大值。开发成本的降低或新技术价值的增加会使企业更容易承担下行风险,并推迟对独立技术的投资:本研究得到了法国国家科学研究署(ANR)[Programmes d'Investissements d'Avenir CHESS ANR-17-EURE-0010 和 ANITI ANR-19-PI3A-0004]以及研究基金会 TSE-Partnership [Chaire Marchés des Risques et Création de Valeur, Fondation du Risque/SCOR] 的资助。
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引用次数: 0
ρ-Arbitrage and ρ-Consistent Pricing for Star-Shaped Risk Measures 星形风险度量的 ρ 套利和 ρ 一致性定价
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2023.0173
Martin Herdegen, Nazem Khan
This paper revisits mean-risk portfolio selection in a one-period financial market, where risk is quantified by a star-shaped risk measure ρ. We make three contributions. First, we introduce the new axiom of sensitivity to large expected losses and show that it is key to ensure the existence of optimal portfolios. Second, we give primal and dual characterizations of (strong) ρ-arbitrage. Finally, we use our conditions for the absence of (strong) ρ-arbitrage to explicitly derive the (strong) ρ-consistent price interval for an external financial contract.
本文重新探讨了单期金融市场中的均值风险投资组合选择,其中风险由星形风险度量 ρ 量化。首先,我们引入了对大预期损失敏感的新公理,并证明它是确保最优投资组合存在的关键。其次,我们给出了(强)ρ套利的基本特征和对偶特征。最后,我们利用不存在(强)ρ套利的条件明确推导出外部金融合约的(强)ρ一致价格区间。
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引用次数: 0
Rank-One Boolean Tensor Factorization and the Multilinear Polytope 一阶布尔张量因式分解与多线性多面体
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2022.0201
Alberto Del Pia, Aida Khajavirad
We consider the NP-hard problem of finding the closest rank-one binary tensor to a given binary tensor, which we refer to as the rank-one Boolean tensor factorization (BTF) problem. This optimization problem can be used to recover a planted rank-one tensor from noisy observations. We formulate rank-one BTF as the problem of minimizing a linear function over a highly structured multilinear set. Leveraging on our prior results regarding the facial structure of multilinear polytopes, we propose novel linear programming relaxations for rank-one BTF. We then establish deterministic sufficient conditions under which our proposed linear programs recover a planted rank-one tensor. To analyze the effectiveness of these deterministic conditions, we consider a semirandom model for the noisy tensor and obtain high probability recovery guarantees for the linear programs. Our theoretical results as well as numerical simulations indicate that certain facets of the multilinear polytope significantly improve the recovery properties of linear programming relaxations for rank-one BTF.Funding: A. Del Pia is partially funded by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0433]. A. Khajavirad is partially funded by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0123].
我们考虑的是寻找与给定二进制张量最接近的秩一二进制张量的 NP 难问题,我们称之为秩一布尔张量因式分解(BTF)问题。这个优化问题可用于从噪声观测中恢复一个种植的秩一张量。我们将 rank-one BTF 问题表述为在高度结构化的多线性集合上最小化线性函数的问题。利用我们之前关于多线性多面体面结构的研究成果,我们提出了针对秩一 BTF 的新颖线性规划松弛方法。然后,我们建立了确定性充分条件,在这些充分条件下,我们提出的线性规划可以恢复一个种植的秩一张量。为了分析这些确定性条件的有效性,我们考虑了噪声张量的半随机模型,并获得了线性规划的高概率恢复保证。我们的理论结果和数值模拟表明,多线性多面体的某些面显著改善了秩一 BTF 线性编程松弛的恢复特性:A. Del Pia 的部分研究经费来自空军科学研究办公室 [拨款 FA9550-23-1-0433]。A. Khajavirad 由空军科学研究办公室[FA9550-23-1-0123 号拨款]提供部分资助。
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引用次数: 0
Hidden Convexity, Optimization, and Algorithms on Rotation Matrices 旋转矩阵的隐凸性、优化和算法
IF 1.7 3区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1287/moor.2023.0114
Akshay Ramachandran, Kevin Shu, Alex L. Wang
This paper studies hidden convexity properties associated with constrained optimization problems over the set of rotation matrices [Formula: see text]. Such problems are nonconvex because of the constraint [Formula: see text]. Nonetheless, we show that certain linear images of [Formula: see text] are convex, opening up the possibility for convex optimization algorithms with provable guarantees for these problems. Our main technical contributions show that any two-dimensional image of [Formula: see text] is convex and that the projection of [Formula: see text] onto its strict upper triangular entries is convex. These results allow us to construct exact convex reformulations for constrained optimization problems over [Formula: see text] with a single constraint or with constraints defined by low-rank matrices. Both of these results are maximal in a formal sense.Funding: A. Ramachandran was supported by the H2020 program of the European Research Council [Grant 805241-QIP]. A. L. Wang was supported by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek [Grant OCENW.GROOT.2019.015 (OPTIMAL)]. K. Shu was supported by the Georgia Institute of Technology (ACO-ARC fellowship).
本文研究与旋转矩阵集合上的约束优化问题相关的隐凸性质[公式:见正文]。由于[公式:见正文]的约束,这类问题是非凸的。然而,我们证明了[公式:见正文]的某些线性图像是凸的,从而为这些问题提供了可证明的凸优化算法的可能性。我们的主要技术贡献表明,[公式:见正文]的任何二维图像都是凸的,而且[公式:见正文]对其严格上三角项的投影也是凸的。这些结果使我们能够为[公式:见正文]上的约束优化问题构建精确的凸重构,这些问题具有单一约束或由低阶矩阵定义的约束。这两个结果在形式意义上都是最大的:A. Ramachandran 得到了欧洲研究理事会 H2020 计划 [805241-QIP] 的资助。A. L. Wang 得到了 Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek [Grant OCENW.GROOT.2019.015 (OPTIMAL)] 的资助。K. Shu得到了佐治亚理工学院(ACO-ARC奖学金)的资助。
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引用次数: 0
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Mathematics of Operations Research
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