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Can market volumes reveal traders' rationality and a new risk premium? 市场交易量能否揭示交易者的理性和新的风险溢价?
Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: arxiv-2406.05854
Francesca Mariani, Maria Cristina Recchioni, Tai-Ho Wang, Roberto Giacalone
An empirical analysis, suggested by optimal Merton dynamics, reveals someunexpected features of asset volumes. These features are connected to traders'belief and risk aversion. This paper proposes a trading strategy model in theoptimal Merton framework that is representative of the collective behavior ofheterogeneous rational traders. This model allows for the estimation of theaverage risk aversion of traders acting on a specific risky asset, whilerevealing the existence of a price of risk closely related to market price ofrisk and volume rate. The empirical analysis, conducted on real data, confirmsthe validity of the proposed model.
由最优默顿动力学提出的实证分析揭示了资产交易量的一些意料之外的特征。这些特征与交易者的信念和风险规避有关。本文在最优默顿框架下提出了一个交易策略模型,它代表了异质理性交易者的集体行为。该模型可以估计交易者对特定风险资产的平均风险厌恶程度,同时揭示了与市场风险价格和交易量密切相关的风险价格的存在。对真实数据进行的实证分析证实了所提模型的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Electricity Spot Prices Forecasting Using Stochastic Volatility Models 利用随机波动模型预测电力现货价格
Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: arxiv-2406.19405
Andrei Renatovich Batyrov
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series asapplied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches isto model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedasticvolatility (variance of price). The goal of the research is to generateprobabilistic forecasts of day-ahead electricity prices in a spot markeremploying stochastic volatility models. A typical stochastic volatility model -that treats the volatility as a latent stochastic process in discrete time - isexplored first. Then the research focuses on enriching the baseline model byintroducing several exogenous regressors. A better fitting model - as comparedto the baseline model - is derived as a result of the research. Out-of-sampleforecasts confirm the applicability and robustness of the enriched model. Thismodel may be used in financial derivative instruments for hedging the riskassociated with electricity trading. Keywords: Electricity spot pricesforecasting, Stochastic volatility, Exogenous regressors, Autoregression,Bayesian inference, Stan
商品和金融资产价格的时间序列建模和预测有多种方法。其中一种方法是将价格建模为具有异速波动(价格方差)的非平稳时间序列过程。本研究的目标是利用随机波动率模型对现货市场的日前电价进行概率预测。首先探讨了一个典型的随机波动率模型,该模型将波动率视为离散时间的潜在随机过程。然后,研究重点是通过引入几个外生回归因子来丰富基线模型。与基线模型相比,研究得出了一个拟合度更高的模型。样本外预测证实了丰富模型的适用性和稳健性。该模型可用于金融衍生工具,以对冲与电力交易相关的风险。关键词电力现货价格预测 随机波动性 外生回归自回归 贝叶斯推断 斯坦
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引用次数: 0
Macroscopic Market Making Games 宏观造市游戏
Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: arxiv-2406.05662
Ivan Guo, Shijia Jin, Kihun Nam
In continuation of the macroscopic market making `a la Avellaneda-Stoikov asa control problem, this paper explores its stochastic game. Concerning theprice competition, each agent is compared with the best quote from the others.We start with the linear case. While constructing the solution directly, theordering property and the dimension reduction in the equilibrium are revealed.For the non-linear case, extending the decoupling approach, we introduce amultidimensional characteristic equation to study the well-posedness offorward-backward stochastic differential equations. Properties of coefficientsin the characteristic equation are obtained via non-smooth analysis. Inaddition to novel well-posedness results, the linear price impact arises andthe impact function can be further decomposed into two parts in some examples.
本文继续将宏观做市作为一个控制问题,探讨其随机博弈。关于价格竞争,每个代理都要与其他代理的最佳报价进行比较。对于非线性情况,我们扩展了解耦方法,引入了多维特征方程来研究前向-后向随机微分方程的好求性。通过非平滑分析,我们得到了特征方程中系数的性质。除了新颖的问题解决结果之外,在一些例子中还出现了线性价格影响,并且影响函数可以进一步分解为两部分。
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引用次数: 0
An Algebraic Framework for the Modeling of Limit Order Books 限价订单簿建模的代数框架
Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: arxiv-2406.04969
Johannes Bleher, Michael Bleher
Introducing an algebraic framework for modeling limit order books (LOBs) withtools from physics and stochastic processes, our proposed framework capturesthe creation and annihilation of orders, order matching, and the time evolutionof the LOB state. It also enables compositional settings, accommodating theinteraction of heterogeneous traders and different market structures. We employDirac notation and generalized generating functions to describe the state spaceand dynamics of LOBs. The utility of this framework is shown throughsimulations of simplified market scenarios, illustrating how variations intrader behavior impact key market observables such as spread, returnvolatility, and liquidity. The algebraic representation allows for exactsimulations using the Gillespie algorithm, providing a robust tool forexploring the implications of market design and policy changes on LOB dynamics.Future research can expand this framework to incorporate more complex ordertypes, adaptive event rates, and multi-asset trading environments, offeringdeeper insights into market microstructure and trader behavior and estimationof key drivers for market microstructure dynamics.
我们所提出的框架利用物理学和随机过程中的工具,为限价订单簿(LOB)建模引入了一个代数框架,它可以捕捉订单的创建和消灭、订单匹配以及限价订单簿状态的时间演化。它还支持组合设置,以适应异质交易者和不同市场结构之间的互动。我们采用迪拉克符号和广义生成函数来描述 LOB 的状态空间和动态。我们通过模拟简化的市场情景来展示这一框架的实用性,说明交易者行为的变化如何影响价差、回报波动性和流动性等关键市场观测指标。代数表示法允许使用 Gillespie 算法进行精确模拟,为探索市场设计和政策变化对 LOB 动态的影响提供了一个强大的工具。未来的研究可以扩展这一框架,以纳入更复杂的订单类型、自适应事件率和多资产交易环境,从而为市场微观结构和交易者行为提供更深入的见解,并对市场微观结构动态的关键驱动因素进行估计。
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引用次数: 0
Mean field equilibrium asset pricing model with habit formation 具有习惯养成的均值场均衡资产定价模型
Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: arxiv-2406.02155
Masaaki Fujii, Masashi Sekine
This paper presents an asset pricing model in an incomplete market involvinga large number of heterogeneous agents based on the mean field game theory. Inthe model, we incorporate habit formation in consumption preferences, which hasbeen widely used to explain various phenomena in financial economics. In orderto characterize the market-clearing equilibrium, we derive a quadratic-growthmean field backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) and study itswell-posedness and asymptotic behavior in the large population limit.Additionally, we introduce an exponential quadratic Gaussian reformulation ofthe asset pricing model, in which the solution is obtained in a semi-analyticform.
本文以均值场博弈论为基础,提出了一个涉及大量异质代理人的不完全市场资产定价模型。在模型中,我们纳入了消费偏好中的习惯形成,这已被广泛用于解释金融经济学中的各种现象。为了描述市场清算均衡的特征,我们推导了一个二次增长均值场反向随机微分方程(BSDE),并研究了该方程在大量人口极限下的良好求解性和渐近行为。此外,我们还引入了一个指数二次高斯重构资产定价模型,并在其中以半解析形式求解。
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引用次数: 0
MOT: A Mixture of Actors Reinforcement Learning Method by Optimal Transport for Algorithmic Trading MOT:针对算法交易的最优传输强化学习方法
Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: arxiv-2407.01577
Xi Cheng, Jinghao Zhang, Yunan Zeng, Wenfang Xue
Algorithmic trading refers to executing buy and sell orders for specificassets based on automatically identified trading opportunities. Strategiesbased on reinforcement learning (RL) have demonstrated remarkable capabilitiesin addressing algorithmic trading problems. However, the trading patternsdiffer among market conditions due to shifted distribution data. Ignoringmultiple patterns in the data will undermine the performance of RL. In thispaper, we propose MOT,which designs multiple actors with disentangledrepresentation learning to model the different patterns of the market.Furthermore, we incorporate the Optimal Transport (OT) algorithm to allocatesamples to the appropriate actor by introducing a regularization loss term.Additionally, we propose Pretrain Module to facilitate imitation learning byaligning the outputs of actors with expert strategy and better balance theexploration and exploitation of RL. Experimental results on real futures marketdata demonstrate that MOT exhibits excellent profit capabilities whilebalancing risks. Ablation studies validate the effectiveness of the componentsof MOT.
算法交易是指根据自动识别的交易机会执行特定资产的买卖指令。基于强化学习(RL)的策略在解决算法交易问题方面表现出了卓越的能力。然而,由于分布数据的变化,不同市场条件下的交易模式也不尽相同。忽略数据中的多种模式将损害 RL 的性能。此外,我们还提出了预训练模块(Pretrain Module),通过将行为者的输出与专家策略相一致来促进模仿学习,从而更好地平衡 RL 的探索与利用。在真实期货市场数据上的实验结果表明,MOT 在平衡风险的同时表现出卓越的盈利能力。消融研究验证了 MOT 组件的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Loss-Versus-Fair: Efficiency of Dutch Auctions on Blockchains 损失与公平:区块链上荷兰式拍卖的效率
Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: arxiv-2406.00113
Ciamac C. Moallemi, Dan Robinson
Milionis et al.(2023) studied the rate at which automated market makers leakvalue to arbitrageurs when block times are discrete and follow a Poissonprocess, and where the risky asset price follows a geometric Brownian motion.We extend their model to analyze another popular mechanism in decentralizedfinance for onchain trading: Dutch auctions. We compute the expected lossesthat a seller incurs to arbitrageurs and expected time-to-fill for Dutchauctions as a function of starting price, volatility, decay rate, and averageinterblock time. We also extend the analysis to gradual Dutch auctions, avariation on Dutch auctions for selling tokens over time at a continuous rate.We use these models to explore the tradeoff between speed of execution andquality of execution, which could help inform practitioners in settingparameters for starting price and decay rate on Dutch auctions, or helpplatform designers determine performance parameters like block times.
Milionis等人(2023年)研究了当区块时间离散且遵循泊松过程、风险资产价格遵循几何布朗运动时,自动做市商向套利者泄露价值的比率:我们扩展了他们的模型,分析了去中心化金融中另一种流行的链上交易机制:荷兰式拍卖。我们计算了卖方对套利者造成的预期损失以及荷兰式拍卖的预期成交时间,并将其作为起拍价、波动率、衰减率和平均拦截时间的函数。我们使用这些模型来探索执行速度和执行质量之间的权衡,这有助于为从业者设定荷兰式拍卖的起拍价和衰减率参数提供信息,或帮助平台设计者确定区块时间等性能参数。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing Broker Performance Evaluation through Intraday Modeling of Execution Cost 通过日内执行成本建模优化经纪商绩效评估
Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: arxiv-2405.18936
Zoltan Eisler, Johannes Muhle-Karbe
Minimizing execution costs for large orders is a fundamental challenge infinance. Firms often depend on brokers to manage their trades due to limitedinternal resources for optimizing trading strategies. This paper presents amethodology for evaluating the effectiveness of broker execution algorithmsusing trading data. We focus on two primary cost components: a linear cost thatquantifies short-term execution quality and a quadratic cost associated withthe price impact of trades. Using a model with transient price impact, wederive analytical formulas for estimating these costs. Furthermore, we enhanceestimation accuracy by introducing novel methods such as weighting pricechanges based on their expected impact content. Our results demonstratesubstantial improvements in estimating both linear and impact costs, providinga robust and efficient framework for selecting the most cost-effective brokers.
尽量降低大额订单的执行成本是金融业面临的一项基本挑战。由于优化交易策略的内部资源有限,企业通常依赖经纪人管理其交易。本文介绍了一种利用交易数据评估经纪人执行算法有效性的方法。我们重点关注两个主要成本组成部分:一个是衡量短期执行质量的线性成本,另一个是与交易价格影响相关的二次成本。利用瞬时价格影响模型,我们得出了估算这些成本的分析公式。此外,我们还引入了一些新方法,如根据预期影响内容对价格变化进行加权,从而提高了估算的准确性。我们的研究结果表明,在估算线性成本和影响成本方面都有了实质性的改进,为选择最具成本效益的经纪人提供了一个稳健高效的框架。
{"title":"Optimizing Broker Performance Evaluation through Intraday Modeling of Execution Cost","authors":"Zoltan Eisler, Johannes Muhle-Karbe","doi":"arxiv-2405.18936","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.18936","url":null,"abstract":"Minimizing execution costs for large orders is a fundamental challenge in\u0000finance. Firms often depend on brokers to manage their trades due to limited\u0000internal resources for optimizing trading strategies. This paper presents a\u0000methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of broker execution algorithms\u0000using trading data. We focus on two primary cost components: a linear cost that\u0000quantifies short-term execution quality and a quadratic cost associated with\u0000the price impact of trades. Using a model with transient price impact, we\u0000derive analytical formulas for estimating these costs. Furthermore, we enhance\u0000estimation accuracy by introducing novel methods such as weighting price\u0000changes based on their expected impact content. Our results demonstrate\u0000substantial improvements in estimating both linear and impact costs, providing\u0000a robust and efficient framework for selecting the most cost-effective brokers.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141191510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
HLOB -- Information Persistence and Structure in Limit Order Books HLOB -- 限价订单簿中的信息持久性和结构
Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: arxiv-2405.18938
Antonio Briola, Silvia Bartolucci, Tomaso Aste
We introduce a novel large-scale deep learning model for Limit Order Bookmid-price changes forecasting, and we name it `HLOB'. This architecture (i)exploits the information encoded by an Information Filtering Network, namelythe Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph, to unveil deeper and non-trivialdependency structures among volume levels; and (ii) guarantees deterministicdesign choices to handle the complexity of the underlying system by drawinginspiration from the groundbreaking class of Homological Convolutional NeuralNetworks. We test our model against 9 state-of-the-art deep learningalternatives on 3 real-world Limit Order Book datasets, each including 15stocks traded on the NASDAQ exchange, and we systematically characterize thescenarios where HLOB outperforms state-of-the-art architectures. Our approachsheds new light on the spatial distribution of information in Limit Order Booksand on its degradation over increasing prediction horizons, narrowing the gapbetween microstructural modeling and deep learning-based forecasting inhigh-frequency financial markets.
我们介绍了一种用于限价订单簿中间价格变化预测的新型大规模深度学习模型,并将其命名为 "HLOB"。该架构(i)利用信息过滤网络(即三角最大过滤图)编码的信息,揭示了成交量级别之间更深层次的非三角依赖结构;(ii)通过从开创性的同调卷积神经网络中汲取灵感,保证了处理底层系统复杂性的确定性设计选择。我们在 3 个真实世界的限价订单簿数据集(每个数据集包括在纳斯达克交易所交易的 15 种股票)上测试了我们的模型与 9 种最先进的深度学习替代方法,并系统地描述了 HLOB 优于最先进架构的场景。我们的方法揭示了限价订单簿中信息的空间分布,以及随着预测视野的增加信息的退化,缩小了微观结构建模和基于深度学习的高频金融市场预测之间的差距。
{"title":"HLOB -- Information Persistence and Structure in Limit Order Books","authors":"Antonio Briola, Silvia Bartolucci, Tomaso Aste","doi":"arxiv-2405.18938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.18938","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a novel large-scale deep learning model for Limit Order Book\u0000mid-price changes forecasting, and we name it `HLOB'. This architecture (i)\u0000exploits the information encoded by an Information Filtering Network, namely\u0000the Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph, to unveil deeper and non-trivial\u0000dependency structures among volume levels; and (ii) guarantees deterministic\u0000design choices to handle the complexity of the underlying system by drawing\u0000inspiration from the groundbreaking class of Homological Convolutional Neural\u0000Networks. We test our model against 9 state-of-the-art deep learning\u0000alternatives on 3 real-world Limit Order Book datasets, each including 15\u0000stocks traded on the NASDAQ exchange, and we systematically characterize the\u0000scenarios where HLOB outperforms state-of-the-art architectures. Our approach\u0000sheds new light on the spatial distribution of information in Limit Order Books\u0000and on its degradation over increasing prediction horizons, narrowing the gap\u0000between microstructural modeling and deep learning-based forecasting in\u0000high-frequency financial markets.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141191585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Novel Approach to Queue-Reactive Models: The Importance of Order Sizes 队列反应模型的新方法:订单大小的重要性
Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: arxiv-2405.18594
Hamza Bodor, Laurent Carlier
In this article, we delve into the applications and extensions of thequeue-reactive model for the simulation of limit order books. Our approachemphasizes the importance of order sizes, in conjunction with their type andarrival rate, by integrating the current state of the order book to determine,not only the intensity of order arrivals and their type, but also their sizes.These extensions generate simulated markets that are in line with numerousstylized facts of the market. Our empirical calibration, using futures onGerman bonds, reveals that the extended queue-reactive model significantlyimproves the description of order flow properties and the shape of queuedistributions. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that the extended modelproduces simulated markets with a volatility comparable to historical realdata, utilizing only endogenous information from the limit order book. Thisresearch underscores the potential of the queue-reactive model and itsextensions in accurately simulating market dynamics and providing valuableinsights into the complex nature of limit order book modeling.
在本文中,我们将深入探讨队列反应模型在模拟限价订单簿中的应用和扩展。我们的方法强调订单规模的重要性,并结合订单类型和到达率,通过整合订单簿的当前状态,不仅确定订单到达的强度和类型,还确定订单规模。我们使用德国债券期货进行的实证校准显示,扩展的队列反应模型显著改善了对订单流属性和队列分布形状的描述。此外,我们的研究结果表明,扩展模型仅利用限价订单簿的内生信息,就能模拟出波动性与历史真实数据相当的市场。这项研究强调了队列反应模型及其扩展模型在精确模拟市场动态方面的潜力,并为限价订单簿建模的复杂性提供了有价值的见解。
{"title":"A Novel Approach to Queue-Reactive Models: The Importance of Order Sizes","authors":"Hamza Bodor, Laurent Carlier","doi":"arxiv-2405.18594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.18594","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we delve into the applications and extensions of the\u0000queue-reactive model for the simulation of limit order books. Our approach\u0000emphasizes the importance of order sizes, in conjunction with their type and\u0000arrival rate, by integrating the current state of the order book to determine,\u0000not only the intensity of order arrivals and their type, but also their sizes.\u0000These extensions generate simulated markets that are in line with numerous\u0000stylized facts of the market. Our empirical calibration, using futures on\u0000German bonds, reveals that the extended queue-reactive model significantly\u0000improves the description of order flow properties and the shape of queue\u0000distributions. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that the extended model\u0000produces simulated markets with a volatility comparable to historical real\u0000data, utilizing only endogenous information from the limit order book. This\u0000research underscores the potential of the queue-reactive model and its\u0000extensions in accurately simulating market dynamics and providing valuable\u0000insights into the complex nature of limit order book modeling.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141191418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure
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