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Distinguishing mechanisms of social contagion from local network view. 从局部网络视角辨析社会传染机制。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-025-00034-2
Elsa Andres, Gergely Ódor, Iacopo Iacopini, Márton Karsai

The adoption of individual behavioural patterns is largely determined by stimuli arriving from peers via social interactions or from external sources. Based on these influences, individuals are commonly assumed to follow simple or complex adoption rules, inducing social contagion processes. In reality, multiple adoption rules may coexist even within the same social contagion process, introducing additional complexity to the spreading phenomena. Our goal is to understand whether coexisting adoption mechanisms can be distinguished from a microscopic view at the egocentric network level without requiring global information about the underlying network, or the unfolding spreading process. We formulate this question as a classification problem, and study it through a likelihood approach and with random forest classifiers in various synthetic and data-driven experiments. This study offers a novel perspective on the observations of propagation processes at the egocentric level and a better understanding of landmark contagion mechanisms from a local view.

个体行为模式的采用在很大程度上是由同伴通过社会互动或外部来源的刺激决定的。基于这些影响,人们通常假定个体遵循简单或复杂的收养规则,从而诱发社会传染过程。在现实中,甚至在同一社会传染过程中,多种收养规则也可能共存,给传播现象带来额外的复杂性。我们的目标是了解共存的采用机制是否可以从微观的角度在自我中心的网络层面上区分开来,而不需要关于底层网络的全局信息,或者展开的传播过程。我们将这个问题表述为一个分类问题,并通过似然方法和随机森林分类器在各种综合和数据驱动的实验中进行研究。本研究提供了一个新的视角来观察自我中心水平的传播过程,并从局部角度更好地理解地标性传染机制。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the amplification of epidemic spread by individuals exposed to misinformation on social media. 通过在社交媒体上接触错误信息的个人对流行病传播的放大进行建模。
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-025-00038-y
Matthew R DeVerna, Francesco Pierri, Yong-Yeol Ahn, Santo Fortunato, Alessandro Flammini, Filippo Menczer

Understanding how misinformation affects the spread of disease is crucial for public health, especially given recent research indicating that misinformation can increase vaccine hesitancy and discourage vaccine uptake. However, it is difficult to investigate the interaction between misinformation and epidemic outcomes due to the dearth of data-informed holistic epidemic models. Here, we employ an epidemic model that incorporates a large, mobility-informed physical contact network as well as the distribution of misinformed individuals across counties derived from social media data. The model allows us to simulate various scenarios to understand how epidemic spreading can be affected by misinformation spreading through one particular social media platform. Using this model, we compare a worst-case scenario, in which individuals become misinformed after a single exposure to low-credibility content, to a best-case scenario where the population is highly resilient to misinformation. We estimate the additional portion of the U.S. population that would become infected over the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in the worst-case scenario. This work can provide policymakers with insights about the potential harms of exposure to online vaccine misinformation.

了解错误信息如何影响疾病传播对公共卫生至关重要,特别是考虑到最近的研究表明,错误信息会增加对疫苗的犹豫并阻碍疫苗的吸收。然而,由于缺乏基于数据的整体流行病模型,很难调查错误信息与流行病结果之间的相互作用。在这里,我们采用了一个流行病模型,该模型结合了一个大型的、流动性信息的身体接触网络,以及来自社交媒体数据的被误导的个人在各个国家的分布。该模型使我们能够模拟各种场景,以了解通过特定社交媒体平台传播的错误信息如何影响流行病的传播。使用这个模型,我们比较了最坏的情况,即个人在一次接触低可信度内容后被误导,以及最好的情况,即人们对错误信息具有高度的弹性。我们估计了在最坏的情况下,在COVID-19流行的过程中,美国人口中被感染的额外比例。这项工作可以为政策制定者提供有关接触在线疫苗错误信息的潜在危害的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Author Correction: Triangulation for causal loop diagrams: constructing biopsychosocial models using group model building, literature review, and causal discovery 作者更正:因果循环图的三角测量:使用群体模型构建、文献回顾和因果发现构建生物心理社会模型
Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00024-w
Jeroen F. Uleman, Maartje Luijten, Wilson F. Abdo, Jana Vyrastekova, Andreas Gerhardus, Jakob Runge, Naja Hulvej Rod, Maaike Verhagen
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引用次数: 0
How much longer do you have to drive than the crow has to fly? 你开车的时间比乌鸦飞的时间长多少?
Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00023-x
Shanshan Wang, Henrik M. Bette, Michael Schreckenberg, Thomas Guhr
When travelling by car from one location to another, our route is constrained by the road network. The network distance between the two locations is generally longer than the geodetic distance as the crow flies. We report a systematic relation between the statistical properties of these two distances. Empirically, we find a robust scaling between network and geodetic distance distributions for a variety of large motorway networks. A simple consequence is that we typically have to drive 1.3 ± 0.1 times longer than the crow flies. This scaling is not present in standard random networks; rather, it requires non-random adjacency. We develop a set of rules to build a realistic motorway network, also consistent with the above scaling. We hypothesise that the scaling reflects a compromise between two societal needs: high efficiency and accessibility on the one hand, and limitation of costs and other burdens on the other.
开车从一个地点前往另一个地点时,我们的路线受到公路网的限制。两地之间的网络距离通常比乌鸦飞过的大地测量距离要长。我们报告了这两种距离的统计特性之间的系统关系。根据经验,我们发现在各种大型高速公路网络中,网络距离分布与大地测量距离分布之间存在稳健的比例关系。一个简单的结果是,我们通常要比乌鸦飞的距离长 1.3 ± 0.1 倍。标准的随机网络中不存在这种比例关系;相反,它需要非随机的邻接关系。我们制定了一套规则来构建一个现实的高速公路网络,该网络也符合上述缩放比例。我们假设,这种缩放反映了两种社会需求之间的折衷:一方面是高效率和可达性,另一方面是限制成本和其他负担。
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引用次数: 0
Human behavior-driven epidemic surveillance in urban landscapes 城市景观中人类行为驱动的流行病监测
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00021-z
P. Valgañón, A. F. Useche, F. Montes, A. Arenas, D. Soriano-Paños, J. Gómez-Gardeñes
We introduce a surveillance strategy specifically designed for urban areas to enhance preparedness and response to disease outbreaks by leveraging the unique characteristics of human behavior within urban contexts. By integrating data on individual residences and travel patterns, we construct a Mixing matrix that facilitates the identification of critical pathways that ease pathogen transmission across urban landscapes enabling targeted testing strategies. Our approach not only enhances public health systems’ ability to provide early epidemiological alerts but also underscores the variability in strategy effectiveness based on urban layout. We prove the feasibility of our mobility-informed policies by mapping essential mobility links to major transit stations, showing that few resources focused on specific stations yields a more effective surveillance than non-targeted approaches. This study emphasizes the critical role of integrating human behavioral patterns into epidemic management strategies to improve the preparedness and resilience of major cities against future outbreaks.
我们引入了一项专门为城市地区设计的监测战略,通过利用城市环境中人类行为的独特特征,加强对疾病爆发的准备和应对。通过整合个人居住和旅行模式的数据,我们构建了一个混合矩阵,该矩阵有助于识别缓解病原体在城市景观中传播的关键途径,从而实现有针对性的测试策略。我们的方法不仅增强了公共卫生系统提供早期流行病学警报的能力,而且还强调了基于城市布局的战略有效性的可变性。我们通过绘制主要交通站点的基本交通链接来证明我们的交通信息政策的可行性,表明很少有资源集中在特定站点比非目标方法产生更有效的监测。这项研究强调了将人类行为模式纳入流行病管理战略的关键作用,以提高主要城市对未来疫情的准备和复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Rebound in epidemic control: how misaligned vaccination timing amplifies infection peaks 流行病控制中的反弹:疫苗接种时间错位如何放大感染高峰
Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00020-0
Piergiorgio Castioni, Sergio Gómez, Clara Granell, Alex Arenas
In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through modeling and comprehensive data analysis of model output, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive phenomenon: initiating a vaccination process at an inopportune moment can paradoxically result in a more pronounced second peak of infections. This “rebound” phenomenon challenges the conventional understanding of vaccination impacts on epidemic dynamics. We provide a detailed examination of how improperly timed vaccination efforts can inadvertently reduce the overall immunity level in a population, considering both natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings reveal that such a decrease in population-wide immunity can lead to a delayed, yet more severe, resurgence of cases. This study not only adds a critical dimension to our understanding of vaccination strategies in controlling pandemics but also underscores the necessity for strategically timed interventions to optimize public health outcomes. Furthermore, we compute which vaccination strategies are optimal for a COVID-19 tailored mathematical model, and find that there are two types of optimal strategies. The first type prioritizes vaccinating early and rapidly to reduce the number of deaths, while the second type acts later and more slowly to reduce the number of cases; both of them target primarily the elderly population. Our results hold significant implications for the formulation of vaccination policies, particularly in the context of rapidly evolving infectious diseases.
在本研究中,我们探讨了疫苗接种活动的时机与疾病在人群中传播轨迹之间的动态相互作用。通过对模型输出的建模和综合数据分析,我们发现了一个反直觉的现象:在不恰当的时机启动疫苗接种过程可能会导致更明显的第二个感染高峰。这种 "反弹 "现象挑战了疫苗接种对流行病动态影响的传统认识。考虑到自然免疫和疫苗诱导免疫,我们详细研究了时机不当的疫苗接种工作如何会无意中降低人群的整体免疫水平。我们的研究结果表明,全人群免疫力的下降会导致病例的延迟和更严重的复发。这项研究不仅为我们了解控制大流行病的疫苗接种策略增添了一个重要的维度,而且还强调了适时进行战略干预以优化公共卫生结果的必要性。此外,我们还计算了 COVID-19 定制数学模型的最佳疫苗接种策略,并发现存在两类最佳策略。第一种策略优先考虑早期快速接种疫苗,以减少死亡人数;第二种策略优先考虑晚期缓慢接种疫苗,以减少病例数;这两种策略都主要针对老年人群。我们的研究结果对疫苗接种政策的制定具有重要意义,尤其是在传染病迅速发展的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Triangulation for causal loop diagrams: constructing biopsychosocial models using group model building, literature review, and causal discovery 因果循环图的三角测量:利用群体模型构建、文献综述和因果发现构建生物-心理-社会模型
Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00017-9
Jeroen F. Uleman, Maartje Luijten, Wilson F. Abdo, Jana Vyrastekova, Andreas Gerhardus, Jakob Runge, Naja Hulvej Rod, Maaike Verhagen
The complex nature of many health problems necessitates the use of systems thinking tools like causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to visualize the underlying causal network and facilitate computational simulations of potential interventions. However, the construction of CLDs is limited by the constraints and biases of specific sources of evidence. To address this, we propose a triangulation approach that integrates expert and theory-driven group model building, literature review, and data-driven causal discovery. We demonstrate the utility of this triangulation approach using a case example focused on the trajectory of depressive symptoms in response to a stressor in healthy adults. After triangulation with causal discovery, the CLD exhibited (1) greater comprehensiveness, encompassing multiple research fields; (2) a modified feedback structure; and (3) increased transparency regarding the uncertainty of evidence in the model structure. These findings suggest that triangulation can produce higher-quality CLDs, potentially advancing our understanding of complex diseases.
许多健康问题性质复杂,因此有必要使用因果循环图(CLD)等系统思维工具来直观显示潜在的因果网络,并促进对潜在干预措施的计算模拟。然而,CLDs 的构建受到特定证据来源的限制和偏见的制约。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种三角测量方法,将专家和理论驱动的小组模型构建、文献综述和数据驱动的因果发现整合在一起。我们通过一个案例来展示这种三角测量方法的实用性,该案例主要关注健康成年人在面对压力时抑郁症状的变化轨迹。经过三角分析和因果发现后,CLD 表现出:(1)更全面,涵盖多个研究领域;(2)修改了反馈结构;(3)增加了模型结构中证据不确定性的透明度。这些研究结果表明,三角测量可以产生更高质量的CLD,从而有可能促进我们对复杂疾病的理解。
{"title":"Triangulation for causal loop diagrams: constructing biopsychosocial models using group model building, literature review, and causal discovery","authors":"Jeroen F. Uleman,&nbsp;Maartje Luijten,&nbsp;Wilson F. Abdo,&nbsp;Jana Vyrastekova,&nbsp;Andreas Gerhardus,&nbsp;Jakob Runge,&nbsp;Naja Hulvej Rod,&nbsp;Maaike Verhagen","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00017-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00017-9","url":null,"abstract":"The complex nature of many health problems necessitates the use of systems thinking tools like causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to visualize the underlying causal network and facilitate computational simulations of potential interventions. However, the construction of CLDs is limited by the constraints and biases of specific sources of evidence. To address this, we propose a triangulation approach that integrates expert and theory-driven group model building, literature review, and data-driven causal discovery. We demonstrate the utility of this triangulation approach using a case example focused on the trajectory of depressive symptoms in response to a stressor in healthy adults. After triangulation with causal discovery, the CLD exhibited (1) greater comprehensiveness, encompassing multiple research fields; (2) a modified feedback structure; and (3) increased transparency regarding the uncertainty of evidence in the model structure. These findings suggest that triangulation can produce higher-quality CLDs, potentially advancing our understanding of complex diseases.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00017-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142579801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How U.S. Presidential elections strengthen global hate networks 美国总统选举如何强化全球仇恨网络
Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00018-8
Akshay Verma, Richard Sear, Neil Johnson
Local or national politics can be a catalyst for potentially dangerous hate speech. But with a third of the world’s population eligible to vote in 2024 elections, we need an understanding of how individual-level hate multiplies up to the collective global scale. We show, based on the most recent U.S. presidential election, that offline events are associated with rapid adaptations of the global online hate universe that strengthens both its network-of-networks structure and the types of hate content that it collectively produces. Approximately 50 million accounts in hate communities are drawn closer to each other and to a broad mainstream of billions. The election triggered new hate content at scale around immigration, ethnicity, and antisemitism that aligns with conspiracy theories about Jewish-led replacement. Telegram acts as a key hardening agent; yet, it is overlooked by U.S. Congressional hearings and new E.U. legislation. Because the hate universe has remained robust since 2020, anti-hate messaging surrounding global events (e.g., upcoming elections or the war in Gaza) should pivot to blending multiple hate types while targeting previously untouched social media structures.
地方或国家政治可能成为潜在危险的仇恨言论的催化剂。但是,由于全球三分之一的人口有资格在 2024 年的选举中投票,我们需要了解个人层面的仇恨是如何在全球范围内成倍增长的。我们以最近的美国总统大选为基础,展示了线下事件与全球网络仇恨世界的快速适应相关联,这种适应既加强了网络的网络结构,也加强了其集体产生的仇恨内容类型。仇恨社区中约 5000 万个账户相互之间以及与广泛的千亿国际登录_千亿pt老虎机_千亿国际娱乐pt_千亿国际娱乐主流拉近了距离。大选引发了围绕移民、种族和反犹太主义的新的大规模仇恨内容,这些内容与犹太人主导的取代阴谋论相吻合。Telegram 起到了关键的强化作用,但却被美国国会听证会和欧盟新立法所忽视。由于仇恨世界自 2020 年以来一直保持强劲势头,围绕全球事件(如即将到来的选举或加沙战争)的反仇恨信息应转向融合多种仇恨类型,同时针对以前未触及的社交媒体结构。
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引用次数: 0
Author Correction: Networks and identity drive the spatial diffusion of linguistic innovation in urban and rural areas 作者更正:网络和身份认同推动语言创新在城乡地区的空间扩散
Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00019-7
Aparna Ananthasubramaniam, David Jurgens, Daniel M. Romero
{"title":"Author Correction: Networks and identity drive the spatial diffusion of linguistic innovation in urban and rural areas","authors":"Aparna Ananthasubramaniam,&nbsp;David Jurgens,&nbsp;Daniel M. Romero","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00019-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00019-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00019-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Urban residential clustering and mobility of ethnic groups: impact of fertility 城市住宅集群和种族群体的流动性:生育率的影响
Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00016-w
Kunal Bhattacharya, Chandreyee Roy, Tuomas Takko, Anna Rotkirch, Kimmo Kaski
We studied residential clustering and mobility of ethnic minorities using a theoretical framework based on null models of spatial distributions and movements of populations. Using microdata from population registers we compared the patterns of clustering amongst various socioethnic groups living in and around the capital region of Finland. The models enabled us to connect the factors influencing intraurban migration to the spatial patterns that have developed over time. The observed clustering seems to be a combined effect of fertility and the tendency to migrate locally. The models also highlight the importance of factors like proximity to the city centre, neighbourhood income levels, and similarity of socioeconomic profiles. While the demonstrated relationship between clustering, mobility, and fertility is based on a limited number of observations, it could serve as a motivation for future research in different urban settings. Overall, these insights are expected to contribute to our understanding of demographic dynamics in culturally diverse environments.
我们利用基于空间分布和人口流动空模型的理论框架,研究了少数民族的居住聚类和流动性。我们利用人口登记册中的微观数据,比较了居住在芬兰首都及周边地区的不同社会种族群体的聚居模式。这些模型使我们能够将影响城市内人口迁移的因素与随着时间推移而形成的空间模式联系起来。观察到的聚居现象似乎是生育率和本地迁移趋势的综合影响。这些模型还凸显了靠近市中心、邻里收入水平和社会经济概况相似性等因素的重要性。虽然集群、流动性和生育率之间的关系是基于有限的观察结果,但它可以作为未来在不同城市环境中开展研究的动力。总之,这些见解有望促进我们对多元文化环境中人口动态的理解。
{"title":"Urban residential clustering and mobility of ethnic groups: impact of fertility","authors":"Kunal Bhattacharya,&nbsp;Chandreyee Roy,&nbsp;Tuomas Takko,&nbsp;Anna Rotkirch,&nbsp;Kimmo Kaski","doi":"10.1038/s44260-024-00016-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44260-024-00016-w","url":null,"abstract":"We studied residential clustering and mobility of ethnic minorities using a theoretical framework based on null models of spatial distributions and movements of populations. Using microdata from population registers we compared the patterns of clustering amongst various socioethnic groups living in and around the capital region of Finland. The models enabled us to connect the factors influencing intraurban migration to the spatial patterns that have developed over time. The observed clustering seems to be a combined effect of fertility and the tendency to migrate locally. The models also highlight the importance of factors like proximity to the city centre, neighbourhood income levels, and similarity of socioeconomic profiles. While the demonstrated relationship between clustering, mobility, and fertility is based on a limited number of observations, it could serve as a motivation for future research in different urban settings. Overall, these insights are expected to contribute to our understanding of demographic dynamics in culturally diverse environments.","PeriodicalId":501707,"journal":{"name":"npj Complexity","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44260-024-00016-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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npj Complexity
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