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Feature-aware ultra-low dimensional reduction of real networks 对真实网络进行特征感知的超低维缩减
Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00013-z
Robert Jankowski, Pegah Hozhabrierdi, Marián Boguñá, M. Ángeles Serrano
In existing models and embedding methods of networked systems, node features describing their qualities are usually overlooked in favor of focusing solely on node connectivity. This study introduces FiD-Mercator, a model-based ultra-low dimensional reduction technique that integrates node features with network structure to create D-dimensional maps of complex networks in a hyperbolic space. This embedding method efficiently uses features as an initial condition, guiding the search of nodes’ coordinates toward an optimal solution. The research reveals that downstream task performance improves with the correlation between network connectivity and features, emphasizing the importance of such correlation for enhancing the description and predictability of real networks. Simultaneously, hyperbolic embedding’s ability to reproduce local network properties remains unaffected by the inclusion of features. The findings highlight the necessity for developing network embedding techniques capable of exploiting such correlations to optimize both network structure and feature association jointly in the future.
在现有的网络系统模型和嵌入方法中,描述其质量的节点特征通常被忽视,而只关注节点的连接性。本研究介绍的 FiD-Mercator 是一种基于模型的超低维缩减技术,它将节点特征与网络结构相结合,在双曲空间中创建复杂网络的 D 维映射。这种嵌入方法有效地将特征作为初始条件,引导节点坐标的搜索走向最优解。研究发现,下游任务的性能会随着网络连通性和特征之间的相关性而提高,从而强调了这种相关性对于增强真实网络的描述和可预测性的重要性。同时,双曲嵌入再现局部网络属性的能力不受包含特征的影响。这些发现突出表明,未来有必要开发能够利用这种相关性的网络嵌入技术,以共同优化网络结构和特征关联。
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引用次数: 0
Upper bounds on overshoot in SIR models with nonlinear incidence 非线性入射的 SIR 模型超调上限
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00010-2
Maximilian M. Nguyen
We expand the calculation of the upper bound on epidemic overshoot in SIR models to account for nonlinear incidence. We lay out the general procedure and restrictions to perform the calculation analytically for nonlinear functions in the number of susceptibles. We demonstrate the procedure by working through several examples and also numerically study what happens to the upper bound on overshoot when nonlinear incidence manifests in the form of epidemic dynamics over a contact network. We find that both steeper incidence terms and larger contact heterogeneity can increase the range of communicable diseases at which the overshoot remains a relatively large public health hazard.
我们扩展了 SIR 模型中流行病超调上限的计算方法,以考虑非线性发生率。我们列出了针对易感者数量的非线性函数进行分析计算的一般程序和限制条件。我们通过几个例子演示了这一过程,并用数值方法研究了当非线性发生率以接触网络上流行动态的形式出现时,超调的上限会发生什么变化。我们发现,更陡峭的发病率项和更大的接触异质性都会扩大传染病的范围,在这种情况下,过冲仍会对公共健康造成相对较大的危害。
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引用次数: 0
Antifragility in complex dynamical systems 复杂动力系统中的反脆弱
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00014-y
Cristian Axenie, Oliver López-Corona, Michail A. Makridis, Meisam Akbarzadeh, Matteo Saveriano, Alexandru Stancu, Jeffrey West
Antifragility characterizes the benefit of a dynamical system derived from the variability in environmental perturbations. Antifragility carries a precise definition that quantifies a system’s output response to input variability. Systems may respond poorly to perturbations (fragile) or benefit from perturbations (antifragile). In this manuscript, we review a range of applications of antifragility theory in technical systems (e.g., traffic control, robotics) and natural systems (e.g., cancer therapy, antibiotics). While there is a broad overlap in methods used to quantify and apply antifragility across disciplines, there is a need for precisely defining the scales at which antifragility operates. Thus, we provide a brief general introduction to the properties of antifragility in applied systems and review relevant literature for both natural and technical systems’ antifragility. We frame this review within three scales common to technical systems: intrinsic (input–output nonlinearity), inherited (extrinsic environmental signals), and induced (feedback control), with associated counterparts in biological systems: ecological (homogeneous systems), evolutionary (heterogeneous systems), and interventional (control). We use the common noun in designing systems that exhibit antifragile behavior across scales and guide the reader along the spectrum of fragility–adaptiveness–resilience–robustness–antifragility, the principles behind it, and its practical implications.
反脆弱度描述了动态系统从环境扰动变化中获得的益处。反脆弱有一个精确的定义,可以量化系统对输入变化的输出响应。系统对扰动的反应可能很差(脆弱),也可能从扰动中受益(反脆弱)。在本手稿中,我们回顾了反脆弱理论在技术系统(如交通控制、机器人)和自然系统(如癌症治疗、抗生素)中的一系列应用。虽然各学科量化和应用反脆弱性的方法存在广泛的重叠,但仍有必要精确定义反脆弱性发挥作用的尺度。因此,我们简要介绍了应用系统中反脆弱性的特性,并回顾了自然和技术系统反脆弱性的相关文献。我们在技术系统常见的三个尺度范围内进行回顾:内在(输入-输出非线性)、继承(外在环境信号)和诱导(反馈控制),以及生物系统中的相关对应尺度:生态(同质系统)、进化(异质系统)和干预(控制)。我们在设计跨尺度表现出反脆弱行为的系统时使用了常用名词,并引导读者沿着脆弱性--适应性--复原性--稳健性--反脆弱的光谱,了解其背后的原理及其实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
The Ising model celebrates a century of interdisciplinary contributions 伊辛模型跨学科贡献百年庆典
Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00012-0
Michael W. Macy, Boleslaw K. Szymanski, Janusz A. Hołyst
The centennial of the Ising model marks a century of interdisciplinary contributions that extend well beyond ferromagnets, including the evolution of language, volatility in financial markets, mood swings, scientific collaboration, the persistence of unintended neighborhood segregation, and asymmetric hysteresis in political polarization. The puzzle is how anything could be learned about social life from a toy model of second order ferromagnetic phase transitions on a periodic network. Our answer points to Ising’s deeper contribution: a bottom-up modeling approach that explores phase transitions in population behavior that emerge spontaneously through the interplay of individual choices at the micro-level of interactions among network neighbors.
伊辛模型问世一百周年,标志着一个世纪以来伊辛模型的跨学科贡献远远超出了铁磁体的范畴,包括语言的演变、金融市场的波动、情绪波动、科学合作、非故意的邻里隔离的持续存在,以及政治极化的非对称滞后。问题在于,如何从一个周期性网络上的二阶铁磁相变玩具模型中了解社会生活。我们的答案指向了伊辛更深层次的贡献:一种自下而上的建模方法,通过网络邻里间互动的微观层面上个人选择的相互作用,探索人口行为中自发出现的相变。
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引用次数: 0
A scalable synergy-first backbone decomposition of higher-order structures in complex systems 复杂系统中高阶结构的可扩展协同效应优先骨干分解
Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00011-1
Thomas F. Varley
In the last decade, there has been an explosion of interest in the field of multivariate information theory and the study of emergent, higher-order interactions. These “synergistic” dependencies reflect information that is in the “whole” but not any of the “parts.” Arguably the most successful framework for exploring synergies is the partial information decomposition (PID). Despite its considerable power, the PID has a number of limitations that restrict its general applicability. Subsequently, other heuristic measures, such as the O-information, have been introduced, although these measures typically only provide a summary statistic of redundancy/synergy dominance, rather than direct insight into the synergy itself. To address this issue, we present an alternative decomposition that is synergy-first, scales much more gracefully than the PID, and has a straightforward interpretation. We define synergy as that information encoded in the joint state of a set of elements that would be lost following the minimally invasive perturbation on any single element. By generalizing this idea to sets of elements, we construct a totally ordered “backbone” of partial synergy atoms that sweeps the system’s scale. This approach applies to the entropy, the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and by extension, to the total correlation and the single-target mutual information (thus recovering a “backbone” PID). Finally, we show that this approach can be used to decompose higher-order interactions beyond information theory by showing how synergistic combinations of edges in a graph support global integration via communicability. We conclude by discussing how this perspective on synergistic structure can deepen our understanding of part-whole relationships in complex systems.
在过去的十年中,人们对多元信息论领域以及对新兴的高阶交互作用的研究产生了极大的兴趣。这些 "协同 "依赖关系反映了 "整体 "中的信息,而不是任何 "部分 "中的信息。部分信息分解(PID)可以说是探索协同作用最成功的框架。尽管 PID 具有相当大的威力,但它也有一些局限性,限制了其普遍适用性。随后,人们引入了其他启发式测量方法,如 O-信息,不过这些方法通常只能提供冗余/协同优势的汇总统计,而不能直接洞察协同效应本身。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了另一种分解方法,它以协同作用为先,比 PID 的扩展更为灵活,并且具有直接的解释。我们将协同作用定义为:一组元素的联合状态中编码的信息,在对任何单个元素进行微创扰动后都会丢失。通过将这一概念推广到元素集,我们构建了一个完全有序的部分协同原子 "骨干",它横跨整个系统的尺度。这种方法适用于熵和库尔贝克-莱布勒发散,进而适用于总相关性和单目标互信息(从而恢复 "骨干 "PID)。最后,我们展示了图中边缘的协同组合如何通过可传播性支持全局整合,从而说明这种方法可用于分解信息论之外的高阶互动。最后,我们将讨论这种协同结构视角如何加深我们对复杂系统中部分-整体关系的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Affective polarization and dynamics of information spread in online networks 在线网络中的情感极化和信息传播动态
Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00008-w
Kristina Lerman, Dan Feldman, Zihao He, Ashwin Rao
Members of different political groups not only disagree about issues but also dislike and distrust each other. While social media can amplify this emotional divide—called affective polarization by political scientists—there is a lack of agreement on its strength and prevalence. We measure affective polarization on social media by quantifying the emotions and toxicity of reply interactions. We demonstrate that, as predicted by affective polarization, interactions between users with same ideology (in-group replies) tend to be positive, while interactions between opposite-ideology users (out-group replies) are characterized by negativity and toxicity. Second, we show that affective polarization generalizes beyond the in-group/out-group dichotomy and can be considered a structural property of social networks. Specifically, we show that emotions vary with network distance between users, with closer interactions eliciting positive emotions and more distant interactions leading to anger, disgust, and toxicity. Finally, we show that similar information exhibits different dynamics when spreading in emotionally polarized groups. These findings are consistent across diverse datasets spanning discussions on topics such as the COVID-19 pandemic and abortion in the US. Our research provides insights into the complex social dynamics of affective polarization in the digital age and its implications for political discourse.
不同政治团体的成员不仅在问题上存在分歧,而且还相互厌恶和不信任。虽然社交媒体会放大这种情感分歧,政治学家称之为情感极化,但对其强度和普遍性还缺乏共识。我们通过量化回复互动的情绪和毒性来衡量社交媒体上的情感极化。我们证明,正如情感极化所预测的那样,意识形态相同的用户之间的互动(群内回复)往往是积极的,而意识形态相反的用户之间的互动(群外回复)则以消极和毒性为特征。其次,我们发现情感极化超越了群内/群外的二分法,可被视为社交网络的一种结构属性。具体来说,我们表明情绪会随着用户之间的网络距离而变化,距离较近的互动会引发积极情绪,距离较远的互动则会导致愤怒、厌恶和毒性。最后,我们还表明,类似的信息在情绪两极化的群体中传播时,会表现出不同的动态变化。这些发现在不同的数据集上是一致的,这些数据集涵盖了诸如 COVID-19 大流行病和美国堕胎等话题的讨论。我们的研究深入揭示了数字时代情感极化的复杂社会动态及其对政治话语的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Epidemic forecast follies 流行病预报谬误
Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00007-x
P. L. Krapivsky, S. Redner
We introduce a simple multiplicative model to describe the temporal behavior and the ultimate outcome of an epidemic. Our model accounts, in a minimalist way, for the competing influences of imposing public-health restrictions when the epidemic is severe, and relaxing restrictions when the epidemic is waning. Our primary results are that different instances of an epidemic with identical starting points have disparate outcomes and each epidemic temporal history is strongly fluctuating.
我们引入了一个简单的乘法模型来描述流行病的时间行为和最终结果。我们的模型以简约的方式说明了在疫情严重时实施公共卫生限制和在疫情减弱时放松限制的相互影响。我们的主要结果是,起点相同的不同疫情会产生不同的结果,而且每种疫情的时间历史都具有强烈的波动性。
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引用次数: 0
Catalysing cooperation: the power of collective beliefs in structured populations 催化合作:结构化人群中集体信念的力量
Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00005-z
Małgorzata Fic, Chaitanya S. Gokhale
Collective beliefs can catalyse cooperation in a population of selfish individuals. We study this transformative power of collective beliefs, an effect that intriguingly persists even when beliefs lack moralising components. Besides the process itself, we consider the structure of human populations explicitly. We incorporate the intricate structure of human populations into our model, acknowledging the bias brought by social and cultural identities in interaction networks. Hence, we develop our model by assuming a heterogeneous group size and structured population. We recognise that beliefs, typically complex story systems, might not spontaneously emerge in society, resulting in different spreading rates for actions and beliefs within populations. As the degree of connectedness can vary among individuals perpetuating a belief, we examine the speed of trust build-up in networks with different connection densities. We then scrutinise the timing, speed and dynamics of trust and belief spread across specific network structures, including random Erdös-Rényi networks, scale-free Barabási-Albert networks, and small-world Newman-Watts-Strogatz networks. By comparing these characteristics across various network topologies, we disentangle the effects of structure, group size diversity, and evolutionary dynamics on the evolution of trust and belief.
集体信念可以促进自私个体之间的合作。我们研究了集体信念的这种变革力量,即使在信念缺乏道德成分的情况下,这种效应依然存在,令人好奇。除了过程本身,我们还明确考虑了人类种群的结构。我们将人类群体错综复杂的结构纳入我们的模型,承认社会和文化身份在互动网络中带来的偏差。因此,我们在建立模型时假定了群体规模和群体结构的异质性。我们认识到,信仰作为典型的复杂故事系统,可能不会在社会中自发出现,从而导致行动和信仰在人群中的传播率不同。由于延续信念的个体之间的联系程度可能不同,我们研究了在具有不同联系密度的网络中建立信任的速度。然后,我们仔细研究了特定网络结构中信任和信念传播的时间、速度和动态,包括随机埃尔德斯-雷尼网络、无标度巴拉巴西-阿尔伯特网络和小世界纽曼-瓦茨-斯特罗加茨网络。通过比较不同网络拓扑结构的这些特征,我们厘清了结构、群体规模多样性和进化动力学对信任和信念进化的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Diverse misinformation: impacts of human biases on detection of deepfakes on networks 多样化的错误信息:人类偏见对网络深度伪造检测的影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00006-y
Juniper Lovato, Jonathan St-Onge, Randall Harp, Gabriela Salazar Lopez, Sean P. Rogers, Ijaz Ul Haq, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Jeremiah Onaolapo
Social media platforms often assume that users can self-correct against misinformation. However, social media users are not equally susceptible to all misinformation as their biases influence what types of misinformation might thrive and who might be at risk. We call “diverse misinformation” the complex relationships between human biases and demographics represented in misinformation. To investigate how users’ biases impact their susceptibility and their ability to correct each other, we analyze classification of deepfakes as a type of diverse misinformation. We chose deepfakes as a case study for three reasons: (1) their classification as misinformation is more objective; (2) we can control the demographics of the personas presented; (3) deepfakes are a real-world concern with associated harms that must be better understood. Our paper presents an observational survey (N = 2016) where participants are exposed to videos and asked questions about their attributes, not knowing some might be deepfakes. Our analysis investigates the extent to which different users are duped and which perceived demographics of deepfake personas tend to mislead. We find that accuracy varies by demographics, and participants are generally better at classifying videos that match them. We extrapolate from these results to understand the potential population-level impacts of these biases using a mathematical model of the interplay between diverse misinformation and crowd correction. Our model suggests that diverse contacts might provide “herd correction” where friends can protect each other. Altogether, human biases and the attributes of misinformation matter greatly, but having a diverse social group may help reduce susceptibility to misinformation.
社交媒体平台通常认为,用户可以对错误信息进行自我纠正。然而,社交媒体用户并非同样容易受到所有误导信息的影响,因为他们的偏见会影响哪些类型的误导信息可能大行其道,哪些人可能面临风险。我们称 "多样化的错误信息 "为人类偏见与错误信息所代表的人口统计之间的复杂关系。为了研究用户的偏见如何影响他们的易感性和相互纠正的能力,我们分析了作为多样化错误信息一种类型的深度假新闻的分类。我们选择深度假新闻作为案例研究的原因有三:(1)将其归类为错误信息更加客观;(2)我们可以控制所呈现的角色的人口统计学特征;(3)深度假新闻是现实世界中的一个问题,其相关危害必须得到更好的理解。我们的论文介绍了一项观察性调查(N = 2016),参与者在不知道有些视频可能是深度伪造的情况下,接触视频并被问及有关视频属性的问题。我们的分析调查了不同用户上当受骗的程度,以及哪些感知到的深度伪造角色的人口统计学特征容易产生误导。我们发现,准确率因人口统计学而异,参与者一般更善于对符合自己的视频进行分类。我们从这些结果中推断出这些偏差对人群的潜在影响,并利用一个数学模型对不同的错误信息和人群纠正之间的相互作用进行了分析。我们的模型表明,不同的联系人可能会提供 "群体校正",朋友之间可以相互保护。总之,人类的偏见和错误信息的属性非常重要,但拥有一个多样化的社会群体可能有助于降低对错误信息的易感性。
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引用次数: 0
The path of complexity 复杂性之路
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1038/s44260-024-00004-0
Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Antoine Allard, Joshua Garland, Elizabeth A. Hobson, Luis Zaman
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引用次数: 0
期刊
npj Complexity
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