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The long journey towards a shift to rail in the European long-distance passenger transport market.
Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-025-00025-9
Oded Cats

The European long-distance passenger transport market is rapidly changing. There is a striking discrepancy between the relevance of long-distance travel for emission reduction goals and the lack of knowledge to support its design, planning and policy making. A conceptual representation of this market is provided, and four key scientific challenges are identified and discussed along with a brief review of the state-of-the-art, related knowledge gaps and a corresponding research agenda.

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引用次数: 0
How gasoline prices influence the effectiveness of interventions targeting sustainable transport modes? 汽油价格如何影响针对可持续交通模式的干预措施的有效性?
Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00017-1
Guillaume Chevance, Baptiste Andrieu, Nicolas Koch, Cathryn Tonne, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Paquito Bernard
The current study aims to quantify the moderating role of gasoline price on the effectiveness of interventions targeting healthier and more sustainable transport modes. This multi-level meta-analysis provides an analysis of 52 interventions targeting a change in driving, public and active transport across four continents in interventions mixing “carrot/stick” strategies. Gasoline price significantly moderates the effectiveness of interventions targeting healthier transport modes in Europe (standardized mean difference 4·43, 95% CI 1·11 to 7·74) but not in the other continents. Interventions conducted in Europe were more effective with higher gasoline price. Gasoline price also significantly interacted with access to public transport in the four continents, with the moderating role of gasoline price on interventions’ effectiveness being stronger in places with higher access to public transport. Gasoline price is a significant moderator of interventions’ effectiveness but mostly in context where infrastructures are available.
目前的研究旨在量化汽油价格对针对更健康和更可持续的交通模式的干预措施有效性的调节作用。这项多层次荟萃分析分析了52项干预措施,这些干预措施旨在改变四大洲的驾驶、公共和主动交通,并混合了“胡萝卜/大棒”策略。在欧洲,汽油价格显著调节了针对更健康交通方式的干预措施的有效性(标准化平均差为4.43,95% CI为1.11至7.74),但在其他大洲则没有。在欧洲进行的干预措施在汽油价格上涨时更为有效。在四大洲,汽油价格也与公共交通的可及性显著相互作用,在公共交通可及性较高的地方,汽油价格对干预措施有效性的调节作用更强。汽油价格是干预措施有效性的重要调节因素,但主要是在基础设施可用的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Systemic risk approach to mitigate delay cascading in railway networks 缓解铁路网络延迟级联的系统风险方法
Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00012-6
Simone Daniotti, Vito D. P. Servedio, Johannes Kager, Aad Robben-Baldauf, Stefan Thurner
Delay cascades may significantly disrupt the regular operation of public transportation systems. What are the origins and processes involved in delay-spreading in public railway systems? How can delay propagation in national railway systems be efficiently managed with a minimum of effort? With a network-based systemic risk approach, we quantify the impact of trains on the system. This allows us to find which train assignments play the leading roles in transmitting delays to following trains. This identification of weak spots in the system now enables us to effectively reduce delay cascades by adding very few specific short-distance train services. Reducing delays encourages people to use public transportation, thereby lowering emissions and promoting sustainability. Agent-based simulations validate our results.
延迟级联可能会严重扰乱公共交通系统的正常运行。公共铁路系统延误蔓延的根源和过程是什么?如何以最小的努力有效地管理国家铁路系统中的延迟传播?通过基于网络的系统风险方法,我们量化了列车对系统的影响。这使我们能够找出哪些列车分配在将延误传递给后续列车方面起主导作用。这种对系统弱点的识别现在使我们能够通过增加很少的特定短途列车服务来有效地减少延迟级联。减少延误可以鼓励人们使用公共交通工具,从而降低排放,促进可持续发展。基于agent的仿真验证了我们的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating emissions reductions with carpooling and vehicle dispatching in ridesourcing mobility 估计拼车和车辆调度在拼车出行中的减排
Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00015-3
Ximing Chang, Jianjun Wu, Zifan Kang, Jianju Pan, Huijun Sun, Der-Horng Lee
Ride-hailing services provide on-demand transportation solutions by connecting passengers with nearby drivers through mobile applications. However, carpooling often fails to attract passengers as expected due to inefficient order-matching strategies. This study estimates emissions reductions with order matching and vehicle dispatching in ridesourcing mobility. An explainable machine learning with a hierarchical framework is constructed for arrival time prediction. Considering pick-up and drop-off locations within the expected departure time, on-demand order matching and vehicle dispatching optimization models are built to determine the minimum fleet size and efficient route planning. Real-world experiments are conducted with large-scale ridesharing orders in Beijing, China. In comparison to the current operations, a reduction of 25.25% in fleet size and a simultaneous decrease of 21.65% in pollutant emissions are achieved. Results demonstrate that carpooling and vehicle dispatching processes lead to a slight increase in passenger waiting time while enhancing the operational efficiency of ride-hailing services and reducing pollutant emissions.
网约车服务通过移动应用程序将乘客与附近的司机联系起来,提供按需运输解决方案。然而,拼车往往不能像预期的那样吸引乘客,因为低效的订单匹配策略。本研究估计了拼车机动性中订单匹配和车辆调度的减排。构造了一个层次结构的可解释机器学习模型来预测到达时间。考虑预期出发时间内的上下车地点,建立按需订单匹配和车辆调度优化模型,确定最小车队规模和高效路线规划。现实世界的实验是在中国北京进行的大规模拼车订单。与目前的运作相比,船队规模减少了25.25%,同时污染物排放量减少了21.65%。结果表明,拼车和车辆调度过程导致乘客等待时间略有增加,同时提高了网约车服务的运营效率并减少了污染物排放。
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引用次数: 0
Karma economies for sustainable urban mobility – a fair approach to public good value pricing 可持续城市交通的因果经济——公共产品价值定价的公平方法
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00014-4
Kevin Riehl, Anastasios Kouvelas, Michail A. Makridis
City road infrastructure can be considered a public good, and congestion is the intersection of demand for mobility with the limited available transportation supply. Congestion pricing is effective in reducing demand to sustainable levels below network capacity limits, but also controversial, as it introduces equity issues and systematically discriminates against lower-income groups. Karma is a non-monetary, fair, and efficient resource allocation mechanism that employs an artificial currency different from money, incentivises cooperation amongst selfish individuals, and achieves a balance between giving and taking. Where money does not do its job, Karma achieves socially more desirable allocations by being aligned with consumers’ needs rather than their financial power. This work highlights the value proposition of Karma, provides guidance on Karma mechanism design, and equips the reader with a useful software framework to model Karma economies and predict consumers’ behaviour. A case study of road pricing demonstrates Karma’s potential.
城市道路基础设施可以被认为是一种公共产品,而拥堵是出行需求与有限可用交通供应的交集。拥堵收费在将需求降低到低于网络容量限制的可持续水平方面是有效的,但也存在争议,因为它引入了公平问题,并系统性地歧视了低收入群体。Karma是一种非货币性的、公平的、高效的资源分配机制,它使用一种不同于金钱的人工货币,激励自私个体之间的合作,实现给予与索取之间的平衡。在金钱不起作用的地方,Karma通过与消费者的需求而不是他们的经济实力保持一致,实现了社会上更理想的分配。这项工作强调了因果报应的价值主张,提供了因果报应机制设计的指导,并为读者提供了一个有用的软件框架来模拟因果报应经济和预测消费者行为。一个道路收费的案例研究展示了Karma的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Unraveling the relation between carbon emission and carbon footprint: A literature review and framework for sustainable transportation 揭示碳排放与碳足迹之间的关系:文献综述和可持续交通框架
Pub Date : 2024-11-29 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00013-5
Changlong Ling, Junqing Tang, Pengjun Zhao, Lei Xu, Qiuchen Lu, Linchuan Yang, Fengjue Huang, Wei Lyu, Jiawen Yang
Transportation decarbonization has drawn enormous attention globally, and two concepts play vital roles: transportation carbon emission (TCE) and transportation carbon footprint (TCF). However, their overlapping definitions and mixed uses in relevant literature have caused ambiguities and misunderstandings, resulting in a pressing need to clarify their subtle relationships in a more introspective manner. Therefore, we performed an in-depth literature review to investigate their essential commonalities and differences, with a focus on two aspects: understanding the scientific progress in terms of research trends, foci, and clusters to capture their connotations and use cases; and diagnosing how they are inherently estimated and how misuses can be alleviated. Accordingly, we developed an integrated life cycle analytical framework to relate TCE and TCF in an interdisciplinary landscape. Implications regarding systematic and explicit quantification standards were identified and discussed. Finally, we proposed three research gaps and four possible directions for future sustainable transportation studies.
交通去碳化在全球范围内引起了广泛关注,其中有两个概念扮演着重要角色:交通碳排放(TCE)和交通碳足迹(TCF)。然而,在相关文献中,这两个概念的定义相互重叠、用法不一,造成了歧义和误解,因此迫切需要以更加内省的方式澄清它们之间的微妙关系。因此,我们进行了深入的文献综述,研究它们的本质共性和差异,重点关注两个方面:从研究趋势、研究重点和研究集群等方面了解科学进展,以捕捉它们的内涵和使用案例;诊断如何对它们进行内在估算,以及如何减少误用。因此,我们开发了一个综合生命周期分析框架,将三氯乙酸(TCE)和三氯乙酸甲酯(TCF)与跨学科领域联系起来。我们确定并讨论了系统和明确量化标准的影响。最后,我们提出了未来可持续交通研究的三个研究空白和四个可能方向。
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引用次数: 0
Changing boundaries, distributed control, and implications for transportation sustainability 不断变化的边界、分布式控制以及对运输可持续性的影响
Pub Date : 2024-11-29 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00016-2
Eleanor M. Hennessy, J. Robert Wolfinbarger, Irfan Batur, Nehal Ansh Srivastava, Mattheus Porto, Gabriel I. Cotlier, Madison Horgan, Ian Searles, Ryan M. Sparks, Mikhail V. Chester
Transportation systems are rapidly integrating with cybertechnologies and into cyberphysical ecosystems. Emerging cognitive capabilities are leading to the diffusing of traditional boundaries between transportation and other infrastructure and increasingly distributed control. This requires a new approach to sustainability, reflecting distributed cognitive capabilities of transportation systems, increasingly diffuse boundaries that challenge the historical nature of transportation, and Anthropocene complexity. Public agencies should reassess their roles to manage this increasingly complex environment.
交通系统正在迅速与网络技术和网络物理生态系统融合。新出现的认知能力正导致交通与其他基础设施之间的传统界限不断扩散,控制也越来越分散。这需要一种新的可持续发展方法,以反映交通系统的分布式认知能力、挑战交通历史本质的日益分散的边界以及人类世的复杂性。公共机构应重新评估其角色,以管理这一日益复杂的环境。
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引用次数: 0
The role of parsimonious models in addressing mobility challenges 解析模型在应对流动性挑战中的作用
Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00011-7
Marc Barthelemy
Mobility is a complex phenomenon encompassing diverse transportation modes, infrastructure elements, and human behaviors. Tackling the persistent challenges of congestion, pollution, and accessibility requires a range of modeling approaches to optimize these systems. While AI offers transformative potential, it should not be the sole solution. Parsimonious models remain crucial in generating innovative concepts and tools and fostering collaborative efforts among researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders.
交通是一种复杂的现象,包含多种交通模式、基础设施要素和人类行为。要解决交通拥堵、污染和可达性等长期存在的挑战,需要一系列建模方法来优化这些系统。虽然人工智能具有变革潜力,但它不应是唯一的解决方案。在产生创新概念和工具以及促进研究人员、政策制定者和行业利益相关者之间的合作方面,解析模型仍然至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated model of electric bus energy consumption and optimised depot charging 电动公交车能耗和优化车厂充电的综合模型
Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00008-2
Johannes N. Hendriks, Björn. C. P. Sturmberg
The electrification of buses, and the depots servicing them, is a high priority for sustainability but is hindered by challenges at the intersection of the mobility and electricity systems, such as trade-offs of charging infrastructure and scheduling with the stress placed on the grid. This paper presents a model for studying and co-optimise these variables. The model has two standout features. Firstly, that it integrates a data-driven model for predicting the energy consumption of electric buses based on route details with a bus depot charging optimisation algorithm that minimises the loading on the grid. Secondly, it is compatible with the publicly available route and schedule data published by bus operators and is available open-source for extension. The results foreground the impact of route topology, temperature, and traffic congestion on energy consumption, and the interdependencies of these with timetabling, charging infrastructure and battery designs in driving grid loading.
公交车及其服务站的电气化是可持续发展的重中之重,但在交通和电力系统的交汇处却面临着各种挑战,例如充电基础设施和调度与电网压力之间的权衡。本文提出了一个用于研究和共同优化这些变量的模型。该模型有两个突出特点。首先,它整合了一个数据驱动模型,可根据路线细节预测电动公交车的能源消耗,并采用公交车站充电优化算法,最大限度地降低电网负荷。其次,它与公共汽车运营商发布的公开路线和时间表数据兼容,并可开源扩展。研究结果凸显了线路拓扑、温度和交通拥堵对能源消耗的影响,以及这些因素与时间安排、充电基础设施和电池设计在驱动电网负荷方面的相互依存关系。
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引用次数: 0
Electric vehicles limit equitable access to essential services during blackouts 电动汽车限制了停电期间公平获得基本服务的机会
Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00007-3
Yamil Essus, Benjamin Rachunok
Electric vehicles (EVs) link mobility and electric power availability, posing a risk of making transportation unavailable during blackouts. We develop a computational framework to quantify the impact of EVs on mobility and access to services and find that existing access issues are exacerbated by EVs. Our results demonstrate that larger batteries reduce mobility constraints, but their effectiveness is dependent on the geographic distribution of services and households. We explore the trade-offs between mobility and quality-of-life improvements presented by vehicle-to-Grid technologies and the feasibility and trade-offs of public charging infrastructure as a solution to access inequalities. Equitable access to essential services (supermarkets, schools, parks, etc.) is the most important aspect of community resilience, and our results show vehicle electrification can hinder access to essential services unless properly incorporated into policy and city-scale decision-making.
电动汽车(EV)将移动性和电力供应联系在一起,带来了在停电期间无法使用交通工具的风险。我们开发了一个计算框架来量化电动汽车对流动性和服务获取的影响,并发现电动汽车加剧了现有的服务获取问题。我们的结果表明,电池容量越大,流动性限制越小,但其有效性取决于服务和家庭的地理分布。我们探讨了 "车联网 "技术带来的流动性和生活质量改善之间的权衡,以及公共充电基础设施作为解决使用不平等问题的解决方案的可行性和权衡。公平获得基本服务(超市、学校、公园等)是社区恢复能力最重要的方面,而我们的研究结果表明,除非适当地将车辆电气化纳入政策和城市规模决策,否则它可能会阻碍人们获得基本服务。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport
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