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Scalability challenges of machine learning models for estimating walking and cycling volumes in large networks 用于估算大型网络中步行和骑行量的机器学习模型的可扩展性挑战
Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00009-1
Meead Saberi, Tanapon Lilasathapornkit
This study explores the scalability of machine learning models for estimating walking and cycling volumes across the extensive New South Wales (NSW) Six Cities Region in Australia using mobile phone and crowdsourced data. Previous research has focused on localized applications, missing the complexities of larger networks. The research addresses this gap by identifying unique challenges such as the scarcity and representativeness of observed count data, gaps in the crowdsourced and mobile phone data, and inconsistencies in link-level volume estimates. We propose and demonstrate the application of strategies like enhancing geographical diversity of observed count data and employing an extensive cross-validation approach in model training and testing. By leveraging various auxiliary datasets, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of these strategies in improving model performance. These findings provide valuable insights for transportation modelers, policymakers, and urban planners, offering a robust framework for supporting sustainable transportation infrastructure and policies with advanced data-driven methodologies.
本研究利用手机和众包数据,探索机器学习模型的可扩展性,以估算澳大利亚新南威尔士州(NSW)六大城市地区的步行和骑行量。以往的研究侧重于本地化应用,忽略了大型网络的复杂性。本研究通过确定独特的挑战来弥补这一不足,这些挑战包括观察到的计数数据的稀缺性和代表性、众包数据和手机数据中的差距以及链接级交通量估计中的不一致性。我们提出并演示了各种策略的应用,如增强观测计数数据的地理多样性,以及在模型训练和测试中采用广泛的交叉验证方法。通过利用各种辅助数据集,研究证明了这些策略在提高模型性能方面的有效性。这些发现为交通建模人员、政策制定者和城市规划者提供了宝贵的见解,为利用先进的数据驱动方法支持可持续交通基础设施和政策提供了一个强大的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Vehicle-to-grid response to a frequency contingency in a national grid 国家电网频率突发事件中的车辆对电网响应
Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00010-8
Bjorn C. P. Sturmberg, Lahiru Hapuarachchi, Laura Jones, Kathryn Lucas-Healey, Justus van Biljon
Vehicle-to-grid technology enables electric vehicles to contribute their large, high-power batteries to power systems reserves. Here we report the first demonstration of a fleet of vehicles discharging to support system security after a frequency contingency in a national grid. Our results highlight the potential of vehicle-to-grid, with vehicles discharging within 6 s of the contingency event, and shortcomings, with vehicles recommencing charging before the power system had fully recovered.
汽车并网技术使电动汽车能够将其大型高功率电池用于电力系统储备。在此,我们首次展示了在国家电网发生频率突发事件后,车队通过放电来支持系统安全。我们的结果凸显了车联网的潜力,即车辆在突发事件发生后 6 秒内完成放电;同时也指出了不足之处,即车辆在电力系统完全恢复之前重新开始充电。
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引用次数: 0
Hyper pooling private trips into high occupancy transit like attractive shared rides 将私人出行过度集中到高乘座率的公交系统中,如极具吸引力的共享乘车服务
Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00006-4
Rafał Kucharski, Oded Cats
The size of the solution space associated with the trip-matching problem has made the search for high-order ride-pooling prohibitive. We introduce hyper-pooled rides along with a method to identify them within urban demand patterns. Travellers of hyper-pooled rides walk to common pick-up points, travel with a shared vehicle along a sequence of stops and are dropped off at stops from which they walk to their destinations. While closely resembling classical mass transit, hyper-pooled rides are purely demand-driven, with itineraries (stop locations, sequences, timings) optimised for all co-travellers. For 2000 trips in Amsterdam the algorithm generated 40 hyper-pooled rides transporting 225 travellers. They would require 52.5 vehicle hours to travel solo, whereas in the hyper-pooled multi-stop rides, it is reduced sixfold to 9 vehicle hours only. This efficiency gain is made possible by achieving an average occupancy of 5.8 (and a maximum of 14) while remaining attractive for all co-travellers.
与出行匹配问题相关的求解空间之大,使得寻找高阶合乘问题变得困难重重。我们引入了超级合乘,以及在城市需求模式中识别超级合乘的方法。超级合乘的乘客步行到共同的上车点,乘坐合乘车辆沿一系列站点行驶,然后在站点下车,再步行前往目的地。虽然超级拼车与传统的公共交通非常相似,但它纯粹是由需求驱动的,其行程(停靠站点、顺序、时间安排)是为所有共同出行的人优化的。在阿姆斯特丹的 2000 次旅行中,该算法生成了 40 次超级拼车,共运送 225 名乘客。单人出行需要 52.5 个车时,而超级拼车的多站搭乘则减少了六倍,仅需 9 个车时。这种效率的提高得益于平均载客量达到 5.8 人(最多 14 人),同时对所有共乘者保持吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
Transport within earth system boundaries 地球系统边界内的迁移
Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00005-5
Joyeeta Gupta, Yang Chen, Crelis Rammelt
Achieving a socially and environmentally sustainable mobility and transport system necessitates a multifaceted approach that considers just Earth System Boundaries. Just Earth System Boundaries are domain-specific (e.g. climate change, water) thresholds beyond which significant harm is done to people and other species. We have crossed these thresholds in 7/8 domains and not yet met the minimum needs of people worldwide. The challenge is to return to the safe and just corridor while prioritising the access of the poorest people to minimum resources as called for by the principle of leaving no one behind. Within this context, the transport sector, a major contributor to climate change and environmental pollution, requires significant and swift transformations. This comment proposes six key principles for building a sustainable transport system: prioritising equitable access, enhancing public transport and limiting private transport, decarbonising fuel and fleets, decoupling freight transport from fossil fuel trade, repurposing infrastructure, and ensuring just financing. These principles may enable just living within just Earth System Boundaries.
要实现社会和环境可持续的流动性和运输系统,就必须采用一种考虑到公正地球系统边界的多层面方法。公正的地球系统边界是特定领域(如气候变化、水)的阈值,超过这些阈值就会对人类和其他物种造成重大伤害。我们已经在 7/8 个领域跨越了这些阈值,尚未满足全世界人民的最低需求。我们面临的挑战是回到安全和公正的走廊,同时按照 "一个都不能少 "的原则,优先考虑最贫困人口获得最低限度的资源。在此背景下,作为气候变化和环境污染的主要推手,交通部门需要迅速进行重大变革。本评论提出了建设可持续交通系统的六项关键原则:优先考虑公平交通;加强公共交通,限制私人交通;燃料和车队去碳化;货运与化石燃料贸易脱钩;重新利用基础设施;确保公正融资。这些原则可以在公正的地球系统边界内实现公正的生活。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of electric charging infrastructure: integrated model for routing and charging coordination with power-aware operations 优化电动充电基础设施:路由和充电协调与功率感知操作的综合模型
Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00004-6
Hamid R. Sayarshad
With the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), optimizing charging operations has become imperative to ensure efficient and sustainable mobility. This study proposes an optimization model for the charging and routing of electric vehicles between Origin-Destination (OD) demands. The objective is to develop an efficient and reliable charging plan that ensures the successful completion of trips while considering the limited range and charging requirements of electric vehicles. This paper presents an integrated model for optimizing electric vehicle (EV) charging operations, considering additional factors of setup time, charging time, bidding price estimation, and power availability from three sources: the electricity grid, solar energy, and wind energy. One crucial aspect addressed by the model is the estimation of bidding prices for both day-ahead and intra-day electricity markets. The model also considers the total power availability from the electricity grid, solar energy, and wind energy. The alignment of charging operations with the capacity of the grid and prevailing bidding prices is essential.This ensures that the charging process is optimized and can effectively adapt to the available grid capacity and market conditions. The utilization of renewable energies led to a 42% decrease in the electricity storage capacity available in batteries at charging stations. Furthermore, this integration leads to a substantial cost reduction of approximately 69% compared to scenarios where renewable energy is not utilized. Hence, the proposed model can design renewable energy systems based on the required electricity capacity at charging stations. These findings highlight the compelling financial advantages associated with the adoption of sustainable power sources.
随着电动汽车(EV)的日益普及,优化充电操作已成为确保高效和可持续交通的当务之急。本研究为电动汽车在起点-终点(OD)需求之间的充电和路由选择提出了一个优化模型。其目的是制定一个高效可靠的充电计划,在考虑电动汽车有限的续航里程和充电要求的同时,确保顺利完成行程。本文提出了一个用于优化电动汽车(EV)充电操作的综合模型,其中考虑了设置时间、充电时间、竞标价格估算以及电网、太阳能和风能三种电源的可用性等额外因素。该模型解决的一个关键问题是对当日和当日电力市场的投标价格进行估算。该模型还考虑了电网、太阳能和风能的总电力可用性。充电操作与电网容量和现行竞标价格保持一致至关重要,这可确保充电过程得到优化,并能有效适应可用电网容量和市场条件。可再生能源的利用导致充电站电池的储电量减少了 42%。此外,与不利用可再生能源的情况相比,这种整合可使成本大幅降低约 69%。因此,所提出的模型可以根据充电站所需的电力容量来设计可再生能源系统。这些发现凸显了采用可持续能源所带来的令人信服的经济优势。
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引用次数: 0
Planning to fail? How science can respond to reduced climate mitigation ambition 计划失败?科学如何应对气候减缓目标的降低
Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00002-8
Greg Marsden, Tim Schwanen
The prospect of remaining within 1.5C of planetary warming relies on developed economies tracking increasingly steep and challenging emission reduction pathways. This paper explores how the UK is now proactively planning to miss its targets, using the surface transport sector as a critical case. It discusses how the research–policy interface might both challenge downgraded ambition and provide more actionable routes forward.
将地球升温幅度控制在 1.5 摄氏度以内的前景取决于发达经济体是否遵循日益陡峭和具有挑战性的减排途径。本文以地面交通部门为关键案例,探讨了英国目前是如何主动计划错失目标的。它讨论了研究与政策的结合如何既能挑战降级的目标,又能提供更具可操作性的前进路线。
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引用次数: 0
Reduced travel emissions through a carbon calculator with accessible environmental data: a case study in Madison, Wisconsin 通过可获取环境数据的碳计算器减少旅行排放:威斯康星州麦迪逊市的案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00003-7
Erin E. Bulson, Wissam Kontar, Soyoung Ahn, Andrea Hicks
The echoing environmental toll of the transportation system calls for a drastic need to move beyond carbon-intensive modes of transportation into more sustainable ones. With the rise of emerging modes of transportation, this transition is more promising than ever. In this work, we take a travel-centric approach to promoting and accelerating the transition away from carbon-intensive modes of transportation by informing travelers about their emissions. A carbon calculator—as a function of trip distance and Well-to-Wheel (WTW) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)—was developed and embedded on a website platform. Users would input their trip distance, and the calculator outputs the carbon footprint (CO2e) of the trip if it was to be done through seven different modes: car (gasoline), car (hybrid), car (electric), bus, electric bike, bike, and walking. In addition, the calculator outputs the equivalent of CO2e as cheeseburgers for a more intuitive display. The overall goal of this work is to understand how travelers respond to being exposed to carbon footprint information. This serves as a step forward in realizing a sustainable transportation system. We make available the calculator online through this link . Study results indicated that trip distance, environmental awareness, age, income, and mode of transportation used were the most influential features in predicting modal shifts. Importantly, the majority of modal shifts resulted in reduced CO2e emissions.
运输系统对环境造成的巨大损失要求我们摒弃碳密集型运输方式,转而采用更具可持续性的运输方式。随着新兴交通方式的兴起,这种转型比以往任何时候都更有希望。在这项工作中,我们采取了一种以旅行为中心的方法,通过告知旅行者他们的排放量来促进和加快从碳密集型交通方式的转型。我们开发了一个碳计算器--它是旅行距离和WTW(Well-to-Wheel)生命周期评估(LCA)的函数--并嵌入到一个网站平台上。用户输入自己的行程距离,计算器就会输出如果采用汽车(汽油)、汽车(混合动力)、汽车(电动)、公共汽车、电动自行车、自行车和步行等七种不同模式出行的碳足迹(CO2e)。此外,计算器还将二氧化碳当量输出为芝士汉堡,以便更直观地显示。这项工作的总体目标是了解旅行者对碳足迹信息的反应。这为实现可持续交通系统迈出了一步。我们通过此链接在线提供计算器。研究结果表明,旅行距离、环保意识、年龄、收入和使用的交通方式是预测交通方式转变的最有影响力的特征。重要的是,大多数交通方式的转变都减少了二氧化碳排放量。
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引用次数: 0
Calibrated confidence learning for large-scale real-time crash and severity prediction 用于大规模实时碰撞和严重程度预测的校准置信学习
Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1038/s44333-024-00001-9
Md Rakibul Islam, Dongdong Wang, Mohamed Abdel-Aty
Real-time crash and severity prediction is a complex task, and there is no existing framework to predict crash likelihood and severity together. Creating such a framework poses numerous challenges, particularly not independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data, large model sizes with high computational costs, missing data, sensitivity vs. false alarm rate (FAR) trade-offs, and real-world deployment strategies. This study introduces a novel modeling technique to address these challenges and develops a deployable real-world framework. We used extensive real-time traffic and weather data to develop a crash likelihood prediction modeling prototype, leveraging our preliminary work of spatial ensemble modeling. Next, we equipped this spatial ensemble model with local model regularization to calibrate model confidence training. The investigated regularizations include weight decay, label smoothing and knowledge distillation. Furthermore, post-calibration on model outputs was conducted to improve severity rating identification. We tested the framework to predict crashes and severity in real-time, categorizing crashes into four levels. Results were compared with benchmark models, real-world deployment mechanisms were explained, traffic safety improvement potential and sustainability aspects of the study were discussed. Modeling results demonstrated excellent performance, and fatal, severe, minor and PDO crash severities were predicted with 91.7%, 83.3%, 85.6%, and 87.7% sensitivity, respectively, and with very low FAR. Similarly, the viability of our model to predict different severity levels for specific crash types, i.e., all-crash types, rear-end crashes, and sideswipe/angle crashes, were examined, and it showed excellent performance. Our modeling technique showed great potential for reducing model size, lowering computational costs, improving sensitivity, and, most importantly, reducing FAR. Finally, the deployment strategy for the proposed crash and severity prediction technique is discussed, and its potential to predict crashes with severity levels in real-time will make a substantial contribution to tailoring specific strategies to prevent crashes.
实时碰撞和严重性预测是一项复杂的任务,目前还没有一个框架可以同时预测碰撞可能性和严重性。创建这样一个框架面临着诸多挑战,尤其是非独立且同分布(non-IID)数据、计算成本高的大型模型、缺失数据、灵敏度与误报率(FAR)的权衡以及现实世界的部署策略。本研究引入了一种新型建模技术来应对这些挑战,并开发了一个可部署的真实世界框架。我们利用大量实时交通和天气数据开发了碰撞可能性预测建模原型,充分利用了我们在空间集合建模方面的初步成果。接下来,我们为该空间集合模型配备了局部模型正则化,以校准模型置信度训练。所研究的正则化方法包括权重衰减、标签平滑和知识提炼。此外,我们还对模型输出进行了后校准,以改进严重性评级识别。我们测试了实时预测碰撞和严重程度的框架,将碰撞分为四个等级。我们将结果与基准模型进行了比较,解释了真实世界的部署机制,讨论了交通安全改善潜力和研究的可持续性问题。建模结果显示了卓越的性能,对致命、严重、轻微和 PDO 碰撞严重程度的预测灵敏度分别为 91.7%、83.3%、85.6% 和 87.7%,且 FAR 非常低。同样,我们还对模型预测特定碰撞类型(即所有碰撞类型、追尾碰撞和侧擦/角度碰撞)的不同严重程度的可行性进行了检验,结果表明该模型表现出色。我们的建模技术在缩小模型规模、降低计算成本、提高灵敏度以及最重要的降低故障率方面都表现出了巨大的潜力。最后,讨论了所提出的碰撞和严重程度预测技术的部署策略,该技术在实时预测碰撞和严重程度方面的潜力将为量身定制预防碰撞的具体策略做出重大贡献。
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引用次数: 0
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npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport
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