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An intelligent air quality monitoring system using quality indicators and Transfer learning based Lightweight recurrent network with skip connection 利用质量指标和转移学习的智能空气质量监测系统,基于带跳接的轻量级递归网络
Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.006096
Rapid industrialization and urbanization have resulted in poor air quality, which poses a risk to human health by causing a variety of lung diseases. The precise forecast of air quality is of practical importance. Consequently, the development of an automated air pollution monitoring system based on environmental toxicology is required. Although advanced machine learning approaches can yield reasonable results in air quality prediction, they require more historical data collection. In order to address this problem, a lightweight recurrent network based on transfer learning with skip connection (LRN-SC) is proposed for air quality prediction. LRN-SC pretrains the model using data from an available station. The features that were learned from the previous station are retained, and the pre-trained model is then adjusted to fit the new one. After that, Transfer learning-based light weight recurrent network with skip connection (TL2RN-SC) is trained, and the model is tested using data from the new station. The proposed model reduces the decoding burden by adding skip contacts between the decoder and the linear forecasting layer. The simulation results show that the proposed model outperforms the existing models by attaining average RMSE and MAE of 0.974 and 2.63 respectively.
快速的工业化和城市化导致空气质量低下,引发各种肺部疾病,对人类健康构成威胁。精确预测空气质量具有重要的现实意义。因此,需要开发基于环境毒理学的空气污染自动监测系统。虽然先进的机器学习方法可以在空气质量预测方面产生合理的结果,但它们需要收集更多的历史数据。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种基于跳过连接的迁移学习的轻量级递归网络(LRN-SC),用于空气质量预测。LRN-SC 利用现有站点的数据对模型进行预训练。保留从上一个站点学习到的特征,然后调整预训练模型以适应新的站点。然后,训练基于传输学习的轻量级循环网络(TL2RN-SC),并使用新站点的数据对模型进行测试。通过在解码器和线性预测层之间增加跳接,所提出的模型减轻了解码负担。仿真结果表明,拟议模型的平均 RMSE 和 MAE 分别为 0.974 和 2.63,优于现有模型。
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引用次数: 0
The Maharashtra River Basin's Flood-Drought-Water Scarcity Nexus 马哈拉施特拉河流域的洪水-干旱-缺水关系
Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005346
India's droughts and floods, which have affected 8 million hectares yearly since the 1950s, make future adaptation and mitigation plans necessary, as well as an awareness of potential changes. In order to address the growing issues of flood and drought events in urban settings, the study emphasizes the importance of comprehensive water management strategies that ensure both routine water needs and severe event readiness. This study article recommends including drought and flood considerations in building codes and urban planning regulations to boost urban water resilience. The paper provides workable solutions for developing water-sensitive urban design, rainwater collecting, greywater reuse programs, and decentralized water management systems through a collection of case studies and strategy models. It also emphasizes the importance of teaching the population about the dangers of droughts and floods, water conservation methods, and emergency response procedures. The recommendations place a lot of emphasis on the need for a variety of policies that encourage cooperation between stakeholders, including local and state governments, business owners, community leaders, and experts. The policy recommendations include requests for green infrastructure, building standards for flood-resistant homes, water conservation requirements, and climate-responsive legislation, among other subjects. By encouraging sustainable water use behaviors, these concepts aim to increase urban resilience and make cities better prepared to mitigate the consequences of drought and flooding. These recommendations can aid local and state governments in creating a culture of preparedness for catastrophes, protecting communities, and fostering urban water resilience. This case study looks at the intricate relationships between a specific Maharashtrian river's floods, droughts, and water scarcity.
自 20 世纪 50 年代以来,印度的干旱和洪水每年影响 800 万公顷的土地,因此有必要制定未来的适应和缓解计划,并对潜在的变化有所认识。为了解决城市环境中日益严重的水灾和旱灾问题,该研究强调了全面水资源管理战略的重要性,既要确保日常用水需求,又要做好应对严重事件的准备。这篇研究文章建议在建筑规范和城市规划条例中纳入干旱和洪水方面的考虑,以提高城市水资源的恢复能力。本文通过一系列案例研究和战略模型,为开发对水敏感的城市设计、雨水收集、中水回用计划和分散式水管理系统提供了可行的解决方案。文件还强调了向民众传授干旱和洪水的危害、节水方法和应急程序的重要性。建议非常强调需要制定各种政策,鼓励地方和州政府、企业主、社区领袖和专家等利益相关者之间的合作。政策建议包括绿色基础设施要求、抗洪房屋建筑标准、节水要求和气候响应立法等主题。通过鼓励可持续的用水行为,这些概念旨在提高城市的抗灾能力,使城市为减轻干旱和洪水的后果做好更充分的准备。这些建议可以帮助地方和州政府创建一种防备灾难的文化,保护社区,提高城市的水资源恢复能力。本案例研究探讨了马哈拉施特拉邦一条特定河流的洪水、干旱和缺水之间错综复杂的关系。
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引用次数: 0
The modeling of the Organic Molecules Rejection using the Bootstrap Aggregated Neural Networks for the evaluation of the Forward Osmosis Process performance 利用 Bootstrap 聚合神经网络建立有机分子排斥模型,以评估正向渗透工艺的性能
Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005404
Fouad Kratbi, Y. Ammi, S. Hanini
The forward osmosis process is currently more studied to be a replacement for another consuming-energy process, for this, many works show up the rejection of different molecules, energy consumption, and modeling of different objectives related to FO process. Our study consists to model the rejection of organic molecules (neutral and ionic) by FO process; however, this paper is the simultaneous applications of the single neural network based on quantitative- structure properties relationship (QSPR-SNN) and the bootstrap aggregated neural network (BANN) to predict the rejection of 53 OM. According to the results obtained, the coefficient correlation "R" is used to evaluate the performance of each model for the unseen data, the QSPR-BANN gives R value equal to 0.9909 higher than the value of the SNN which is 0.9401, the Root Mean Square Error of the QSPR-BANN is less than that of the QSPR-SNN with values equal to 0.5764% and 1.2826% respectively.
目前,对正渗透工艺的研究较多,以取代另一种耗能工艺,为此,许多研究都涉及不同分子的剔除、能耗以及与正渗透工艺相关的不同目标的建模。我们的研究包括建立有机分子(中性和离子性)在流化床工艺中的剔除模型;不过,本文是同时应用基于定量-结构-性能关系的单一神经网络(QSPR-SNN)和自举法聚合神经网络(BANN)来预测 53 种有机物的剔除。根据所获得的结果,使用相关系数 "R "来评估每个模型对未见数据的性能,QSPR-BANN 的 R 值等于 0.9909,高于 SNN 的 0.9401,QSPR-BANN 的均方根误差分别等于 0.5764% 和 1.2826%,小于 QSPR-SNN 的均方根误差。
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引用次数: 0
Urbanizational impact on climatic variables and geographical analysis of physical land use land cover variation of a city using Remote Sensing. 城市化对气候变量的影响以及利用遥感技术对一个城市的实际土地利用土地覆被变化进行地理分析。
Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005920
Santhana Iyyappa, Sundararaj, Dr. Chandramathy, Dr Chandramohan, Ar.Santhana, Iyyappa Sundararaj
Climate change has serious implications foron the rise and variation of the average earth’s temperature, and intensified rainfall. In urban areas, temperatures and intensified rainfall variation are noticeably seenin the city which disrupts the normal life of a living things. Also, it affects the storage of rainfall runoff water in tanks and lakes. Green cover reduction due to the increase ofagriculture, industrialization, population explosion and urbanization have a direct impact on the climate pattern.The average temperature of a city is increasing in every decade due to a drastic reduction in the green cover.This is visible today from the abnormal melting of glaciers. The rainfall pattern is highly intensified, and the frequency of rainfall is on the a decreasing trend. This intensified rainfall creates high surface runoff during rainfall and disrupts the normal life in a city. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for a city indicates a noticeable shift in its climatic pattern, particularly with consistent rainfall during the southwest monsoon. Over the span of four decades, LULC research has revealed an increase in residential areas and a decrease in green cover. This urbanization process is associated with changes in LULC, resulting in decreased vegetation and diminished storage water bodies.Variations in the temperature of a city are on an increasing trend. Urban forestry or the dense green coverof an area reduces the temperature and creates cool pockets in the city. The regression model for temperature and vegetation indicates the negative correlation of temperature with high vegetation growth. Keywords: Urbanization, Climate change, Rainfall-runoff, Temperature, Green Cover
气候变化对地球平均气温的上升和变化以及降雨量的增加具有严重影响。在城市地区,气温和降雨量的变化明显加剧,扰乱了生物的正常生活。此外,它还会影响水箱和湖泊对降雨径流水的储存。由于农业、工业化、人口爆炸和城市化的发展,绿化覆盖面积减少,对气候模式产生了直接影响。降雨模式高度强化,降雨频率呈下降趋势。这种加剧的降雨在降雨时会产生大量地表径流,破坏城市的正常生活。一个城市的标准降水指数(SPI)表明其气候模式发生了明显变化,尤其是在西南季风期间降雨持续不断。四十年来,土地利用、土地利用变化和林业研究表明,居住区增加,绿化覆盖面积减少。城市化进程与土地利用、土地利用的变化相关联,导致植被减少,蓄水体减少。城市森林或密集的绿色植被可以降低温度,并在城市中形成凉爽的区域。气温与植被的回归模型表明,气温与植被高生长呈负相关。关键词城市化 气候变化 降雨径流 温度 绿色植被
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing the Interface of Cement-paste Composite by Dispersing Sustainable Nano-Carbon Pyrolytic Char with Silica fume: A Sustainable and Effective approach 通过在硅灰中分散可持续的纳米碳热解炭来增强水泥浆复合材料的界面:一种可持续的有效方法
Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005662
Discrete studies are performed on the reuse of end-of-life tires in the construction industry as their accumulation is a global concern to the environment. In consequence, the desired focus of this work is to understand the interaction of powder derived from recycling process of tire waste which yet to be ascertained. The powder yielded through pyrolysis treatment of tire waste is carbon rich and nano in size. On the other hand, Silica Fume (SF) as a micro material is greatly utilized as cement replacement to reduce the environment impact. Therefore, the compressive strength and microstructure properties of cement paste is investigated by incorporating Nano-Carbon Pyrolytic char (NCP) (0.5% & 1%) and SF (0, 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10%) as an additive and filler, respectively, to the weight of cement. The compressive strength of cement paste is ascertained after 1, 3, 7, 14, & 28 days by employing 50mm3 cube specimen; and the durability properties such as sorptivity, rapid chloride permeability test, and acid test on the samples were examined. Further, Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis is performed to determine the microstructural properties. Finite element analysis used to model the cubes to validate the experimental findings with analytical results. From the results, the individual addition NCP char (0.5% & 1%) in cement paste reduced the compressive strength of the matrix. Further, the effectiveness of SF directly influences the strength property and separates the agglomerates of NCP char in cement paste. The cement paste incorporated with 1% of NCP char as Nano and 10% SF as micro blends improved the compressive strength by 18.56%. Furthermore, the Nano/micro blends in cement paste reacts with Ca(OH)2 to produce dense C-S-H formation due to their reinforcing capability resulting in better durability properties. Finite element analysis exhibit less than 10% of error compared to experimental values. Eventually, the influence of NCP char results in the development of new sustainable nano composites.
建筑行业对报废轮胎的再利用进行了离散研究,因为轮胎的积累是全球关注的环境问题。因此,这项工作的重点是了解轮胎废料回收过程中产生的粉末的相互作用,而这一点尚待确定。通过热解处理轮胎废料产生的粉末富含碳且尺寸为纳米级。另一方面,硅灰(SF)作为一种微型材料,被大量用作水泥替代品,以减少对环境的影响。因此,研究了在水泥重量中分别掺入纳米碳热解炭(NCP)(0.5% 和 1%)和硅灰(SF)(0、2.5、5、7.5、10%)作为添加剂和填料的水泥浆体的抗压强度和微观结构特性。采用 50mm3 立方体试样,经过 1、3、7、14 和 28 天后,确定了水泥浆的抗压强度,并检测了样品的耐久性能,如吸水率、快速氯离子渗透性测试和酸性测试。此外,还进行了扫描电子显微镜(SEM)和 X 射线衍射(XRD)分析,以确定微观结构特性。使用有限元分析对立方体进行建模,以验证实验结果与分析结果的一致性。结果表明,在水泥浆中单独添加 NCP 炭(0.5% 和 1%)会降低基体的抗压强度。此外,SF 的有效性直接影响强度特性,并能分离水泥浆中的 NCP 炭的团聚体。在水泥浆中掺入 1%的 NCP 炭纳米混合物和 10%的 SF 微混合物后,抗压强度提高了 18.56%。此外,水泥浆中的纳米/微掺合料会与 Ca(OH)2 发生反应,形成致密的 C-S-H,这是因为它们具有增强能力,因而具有更好的耐久性能。与实验值相比,有限元分析的误差小于 10%。最终,在 NCP 炭的影响下,开发出了新型可持续纳米复合材料。
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引用次数: 0
Research on carbon emission efficiency and spatial-temporal factors in the transportation industry: Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt 交通运输业碳排放效率与时空因素研究:来自长江经济带的证据
Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005638
Severe climate problems have forced the Chinese government to put forward the goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality". The transport sector is a key area for carbon reduction. Based on this background, this paper constructs the Super-SBM model and the Malmquist-Luenberger index model containing the undesirable output. This paper measures the carbon emission efficiency of transport industry in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt from static and dynamic perspectives during 2014-2020. Finally, the GTWR model is constructed to analyze the factors affecting carbon emission efficiency. The results show that: (1) the carbon emission efficiency of provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is characterized by heterogeneity. Hubei was the highest, while Shanghai, Hunan, Sichuan and Yunnan were below average. (2) According to the Malmquist-Luenberger index analysis, the transportation carbon emission efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a downward trend. Over the 2014-2020 period, carbon efficiency will decline by an average of 7% per year. (3) Energy consumption structure, industrial upgrading, economic development and population agglomeration have significant effects on carbon emission efficiency.
严峻的气候问题迫使中国政府提出了 "碳峰值 "和 "碳中和 "的目标。交通领域是碳减排的关键领域。基于此背景,本文构建了包含不良产出的超级-SBM 模型和 Malmquist-Luenberger 指数模型。本文从静态和动态两个角度测算了 2014-2020 年中国长江经济带交通运输业的碳排放效率。最后,构建 GTWR 模型分析影响碳排放效率的因素。结果表明(1)长江经济带各省碳排放效率具有异质性。湖北最高,上海、湖南、四川和云南低于平均水平。(2)根据 Malmquist-Luenberger 指数分析,长江经济带交通碳排放效率呈下降趋势。2014-2020 年,碳排放效率平均每年下降 7%。(3)能源消费结构、产业升级、经济发展和人口集聚对碳排放效率有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of the Biowall Effective Area to Induce Holistic Sensory Comfort 确定生物墙的有效面积以诱导整体感官舒适度
Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005679
Biowalls are a new phenomenon in interior urban areas, which has proven to contribute positively to sensory comfort. But people use biowalls in different dimensions. Based on field facts, determining the biowall dimensions for human sensory comfort has not emphasized clear principles. The research aims to obtain the effective area of a biowall inducing sensory comfort comprehensively and simultaneously in tropical landed dwellings. Therefore, this study used the experimental method to extract the effective areas of the biowall to generate thermal, audial, visual, and respiratory comfort. The analysis was mathematically conducted through polynomial quadratic equations and directly or inversely proportional to the overall value regarding a generalization attempt. The variables measured included temperature, humidity, surface temperature, reverberation time, noise reduction, illuminance, luminance, and colour mapping, as well as levels of CO2, TVOC, HCHO, and PM2.5. The result showed that biowall effective area inducing thermal, audial, visual, and respiratory comfort for a (3000 x 3000 x 2500) mm3 room was 2.5 modules or 12.5 m2 leaf area. This value was able to provide an increase in the sensory comfort level for the thermal, audial, visual, and respiratory variables by 59.22 %, 76.64 %, 32.35 %, and 98.88 %, respectively.
生物墙是城市内部地区的一种新现象,已被证明对感官舒适度有积极的促进作用。但人们使用生物墙的尺寸各不相同。根据实际情况,确定生物墙尺寸以满足人的感官舒适度并没有强调明确的原则。本研究旨在全面、同步地获取生物墙在热带落地住宅中诱导感官舒适的有效面积。因此,本研究采用实验方法提取生物墙的有效面积,以产生热舒适、听觉舒适、视觉舒适和呼吸舒适。分析通过多项式二次方程进行数学计算,并与总体值成正比或成反比,尝试进行归纳总结。测量的变量包括温度、湿度、表面温度、混响时间、降噪、照度、亮度和色彩映射,以及 CO2、TVOC、HCHO 和 PM2.5 的水平。研究结果表明,在一个(3000 x 3000 x 2500)立方毫米的房间中,生物墙的有效面积为 2.5 个模块或 12.5 平方米的叶面积,可带来热、听觉、视觉和呼吸舒适度。这一数值能够将热舒适度、听觉舒适度、视觉舒适度和呼吸舒适度分别提高 59.22%、76.64%、32.35% 和 98.88%。
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引用次数: 0
Combining Dissolved Air Flotation (DAF) and Modified Moving Bed Biofilm Reactors (MMBBR) for Synthetic Oily Wastewater Treatment 将溶气气浮 (DAF) 和改良移动床生物膜反应器 (MMBBR) 结合起来处理合成含油废水
Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005451
Numerous industrial processes, including petroleum refining, food production, car washes, leather manufacturing, and slaughter houses, generate significant volumes of wastewater due to their substantial water consumption during processing. The presence of oily wastewater has detrimental effects on surface and ground water resources, Human health and aquatic ecosystems. This study aims to integrate dissolved air flotation (DAF) and moving bed biofilm reactors (MBBR) for the treatment of oily wastewater. For this reason, a synthetic oily wastewater was prepared by utilizing commercially available powdered starch as an organic source, along with diesel oil and a finely ground soil. In addition, the experiments were designed and analyzed using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). DAF reactor factors were flotation time and air flow rate. While the MBBR reactor variables were mixing time and hydraulic retention time (HRT). The responses were chemical oxygen demand (COD), oil and grease(O&G), ammonia (NH3-N) and total suspended solids (TSS). Optimum results obtained by RSM for the DAF were 10 min for the flotation time and air flow rate of 72 L/min. in addition, HRT for both MBBRs was 23.5 hr and mixing time of 13 min and 23 min for MBBR1 and MBBR2 respectively.
许多工业流程,包括石油提炼、食品生产、洗车、皮革制造和屠宰场,都会在加工过程中因大量耗水而产生大量废水。含油废水的存在会对地表水和地下水资源、人类健康和水生生态系统造成不利影响。本研究旨在整合溶气气浮(DAF)和移动床生物膜反应器(MBBR),以处理含油废水。为此,利用市售粉末状淀粉作为有机源,并加入柴油和磨细的土壤,制备了合成含油废水。此外,实验还采用响应面法(RSM)进行了设计和分析。DAF 反应器因素为浮选时间和空气流速。MBBR 反应器的变量是混合时间和水力停留时间(HRT)。反应为化学需氧量(COD)、油脂(O&G)、氨氮(NH3-N)和总悬浮固体(TSS)。此外,两个 MBBR 的 HRT 均为 23.5 小时,MBBR1 和 MBBR2 的混合时间分别为 13 分钟和 23 分钟。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity with Using Soil Particle Size Distribution: A Comparative Study of Constant Head and Falling Head Methods 利用土壤粒径分布评估饱和导水率:恒定水头法和下降水头法比较研究
Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005833
The purpose of soil hydraulic conductivity is to retain soil water contents, and soil water pressure. In this study investigates two different methods to understand the soil hydraulic conductivity of loam and clay soils. The present research conducted a laboratory experiment to measure the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) using two different methods: the constant head and falling head methods. The constant head method utilized a soil column with a length of 8.5 cm, and three soil columns were occupied with various soil texture classes (%). The study results demonstrate that the classification of soil texture was predominantly sandy loam with porosity varying between 35%, 43%, and 50% within the clay soil category. Furthermore, the average value of Ksat for the soil samples using the constant head method was 0.00142 cm/sec, while the falling head method provides average values of 0.00123, 0.00172, and 0.00144 for sandy loam and 0.0000146 cm/sec for clay soil. It is concluded that the falling head method indicates greater accuracy, particularly evident in the concurrent analysis of three samples. This study suggested that determination of Ksat through laboratory method is suitable due to cost effectiveness and simplicity.
土壤导水性的目的是保持土壤含水量和土壤水压力。本研究采用两种不同的方法来了解壤土和粘土的土壤导水性。本研究通过实验室实验,使用两种不同的方法测量饱和导水性(Ksat):恒定水头法和下降水头法。恒定水头法使用长度为 8.5 厘米的土柱,三个土柱中有不同的土壤质地等级(%)。研究结果表明,土壤质地分类主要是砂壤土,孔隙度在 35%、43% 和 50%之间变化,属于粘土类别。此外,采用恒定水头法的土壤样本的 Ksat 平均值为 0.00142 厘米/秒,而采用水头下降法的砂壤土样本的 Ksat 平均值分别为 0.00123、0.00172 和 0.00144,粘土样本的 Ksat 平均值为 0.0000146 厘米/秒。结论是,水头下降法显示出更高的准确性,这在同时分析三个样本时尤为明显。这项研究表明,通过实验室方法测定 Ksat 既经济又简单。
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引用次数: 0
Climate projection and future rainfall trends analysis in the Nouhao sub-basin in Burkina Faso. 布基纳法索努豪分盆地的气候预测和未来降雨趋势分析。
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.30955/gnj.005724
Noba Wendkuni, Ghislain, Damiba Lucien, Doumounia Ali, Zongo Inoussa, Zougmoré François
Climate change is an indicator of changes happening in the biosphere. Monitoring it, will anticipating actions against the resulting disasters. This study, undertaken in Burkina Faso Nouaho sub basin, gives an overview of rainfall in the near, medium and long terms. It is built on regional climates models which are climates projections from global climate models downscaling. These models are generated basis on scenarios like greenhouse gas emissions and radiative forcing called Regional Concentration Pathways (RCP). The two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 chosen in this study, have enabled to identify a rainfall regional climate model whose output corrected basis on Nouhao sub-basin observation data, highlight changes in sub-basin future precipitation. Over the three defined normal, i.e. normal 1 (2021-2050), normal 2 (2051-2080) and normal 3 (2071-2100), cumulative annual rainfall mean shows a downward trend under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and an upward trend under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows very wet years at the start of normal 1, before giving way to alternating years close to normal rainfall, in normal 2 and 3. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the SPI shows a dominance of dry years in normal 1. In normal 2 and 3, wet and very wet years return to dominate. The spatial dynamics of future rainfall, meanwhile, show a latitudinal shift in annual rainfall totals towards the south-east of the sub-basin under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and towards the north-west under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The climate projection thus highlights possible future changes in precipitation in the sub-basin. Its consideration could form the basis for the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in the area.
气候变化是生物圈发生变化的指标。对其进行监测,将有助于预测应对由此产生的灾害的行动。在布基纳法索努瓦霍次盆地开展的这项研究概述了近期、中期和长期的降雨情况。它建立在地区气候模型的基础上,而地区气候模型是全球气候模型降尺度后的气候预测。这些模型是根据温室气体排放和辐射强迫等情景生成的,称为区域浓度路径(RCP)。本研究选择了 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 两种情景,从而确定了一种降雨区域气候模型,其输出结果根据努豪次盆地观测数据进行了修正,突出显示了次盆地未来降水量的变化。在三种定义的正常情况下,即正常 1(2021-2050 年)、正常 2(2051-2080 年)和正常 3(2071-2100 年),累积年降雨量均值在 RCP 4.5 情景下呈下降趋势,而在 RCP 8.5 情景下呈上升趋势。在 RCP 4.5 情景下,标准化降水指数(SPI)显示,正常 1 开始的年份非常潮湿,然后在正常 2 和正常 3 的年份中,降水量接近正常水平。在 RCP 8.5 情景下,SPI 显示正常年份 1 以干旱年份为主。在正常年份 2 和 3 中,湿润和非常湿润的年份重新占据主导地位。同时,未来降雨的空间动态显示,在 RCP 4.5 情景下,年降雨总量在纬度上向该次流域的东南部移动,而在 RCP 8.5 情景下则向西北部移动。因此,气候预测突显了该次流域未来降水量可能发生的变化。考虑到这一点,可以为该地区实施气候变化适应战略奠定基础。
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引用次数: 0
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Global NEST: the international Journal
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