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Unlocking Pakistan's Debt Conundrum: A Deep Dive into the Dynamics of Debt Servicing and External Debt Stock 破解巴基斯坦的债务难题:深入研究偿债动态和外债存量
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2024.6202
Muhammad Ghulam Shabeer, Ms. Azra, A. Anwar, Rabia Zubair
Pakistan stands at a crossroads where the burgeoning debt servicing cost of Rs 7.3 trillion is going to swallow the lion’s share of the projected revenue of Rs 9.2 trillion. This revenue also includes the Rs 5.2 trillion share allocated to the provinces. It is essential to study the causes of such a high debt stock rate, which requires a large outflow of foreign reserves. This study took 50 years of data about Pakistan and analyzed certain determinants of debt stock including debt service cost, budget deficit, military expenditure, import bill, and population. ARDL was used after finding a mixed order for stationery. The short and long-run analysis is undertaken. The Result shows that debt cost has a significant negative impact on debt stock, whereas budget deficit, military expenditure, import, and population have a significant positive impact on national debt. Based on the results, this study suggests that military expenditure and imports should be decreased to control national debt. The population must be maintained at an optimal level. The government should not go for a budget deficit as it requires further loans. The Results were checked for robustness and the model was stable.
巴基斯坦正处于一个十字路口,7.3 万亿卢比的还本付息成本将吞噬 9.2 万亿卢比预计收入的绝大部分。这笔收入还包括分配给各省的 5.2 万亿卢比。如此高的债务存量率需要大量的外汇储备外流,因此有必要对其原因进行研究。本研究收集了巴基斯坦 50 年的数据,分析了债务存量的某些决定因素,包括偿债成本、预算赤字、军费开支、进口支出和人口。在发现文具的混合顺序后,使用了 ARDL。进行了短期和长期分析。结果显示,债务成本对债务存量有显著的负面影响,而预算赤字、军费开支、进口和人口对国债有显著的正面影响。根据分析结果,本研究建议减少军费开支和进口,以控制国债。人口必须保持在最佳水平。政府不应追求预算赤字,因为这需要更多贷款。研究结果经过稳健性检验,模型是稳定的。
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引用次数: 0
Equal Educational Opportunities: A Catalyst for Sustainable Economic Development 平等教育机会:可持续经济发展的催化剂
Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2024.6107
Hafsa Batool, Urooj Maqbool, Saba Gulzar
The study holds significance in revealing how ensuring fair access to education can fuel economic growth, promote social cohesion, and guide policymaking for sustainable development. The objective of current research is to empirically examine the relationship between gender disparity in educational attainment within social, and ecological systems. The data is collected for the period 1990-2022. In the presence of cross-sectional dependence 2nd generation unit root test is applied. CS-ARDL technique is considered to examine the short-run as well as the long-run relationship between Gender disparity in education and the socio-ecological system. Achieving environmental sustainability and minimizing our ecological footprints depend critically on gender parity in education. Equal access to high-quality education gives women the knowledge, analytical abilities, and self-assurance to stand up for their communities and themselves. Findings describe that in the long run, there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the GINI-Coefficient and school enrollment tertiary and School enrollment primary. This indicates that, over time, a decrease in income disparity is linked to an increase in enrolment in primary and postsecondary education.  In the long run, the GINI-Coefficient and Secondary school enrollment has a positive and statistically significant relationship. The data in Model 2 appear to indicate that the relationship between education and environmental sustainability is more intricate than the EKC hypothesis predicts. Higher education can raise one's knowledge and understanding of environmental issues, but it can also increase consumption and have an adverse effect on the environment. The findings of the study suggest that implementing policies with the goal of removing obstacles to education based on gender. This could entail giving families financial incentives to send their daughters to school and making sure that all genders have access to high-quality education.
这项研究的意义在于揭示确保公平的受教育机会如何推动经济增长、促进社会凝聚力以及指导可持续发展的决策。当前研究的目的是以经验为基础,研究社会和生态系统中教育程度的性别差异之间的关系。数据收集期为 1990-2022 年。在存在横截面依赖性的情况下,采用了第二代单位根检验。考虑使用 CS-ARDL 技术来检验教育中的性别差异与社会生态系统之间的短期和长期关系。实现环境的可持续发展和最大限度地减少我们的生态足迹在很大程度上取决于教育中的性别平等。平等接受优质教育可为妇女提供知识、分析能力和自信心,使她们能够为社区和自身争取权益。研究结果表明,从长远来看,GINI 系数与高等教育入学率和初等教育入学率之间存在统计学意义上的显著负相关。这表明,随着时间的推移,收入差距的缩小与初等教育和中等后教育入学率的提高有关。 从长远来看,GINI 系数与中学入学率呈正相关,且在统计上有显著关系。模型 2 中的数据似乎表明,教育与环境可持续性之间的关系比 EKC 假说所预测的更加错综复杂。高等教育可以提高人们对环境问题的认识和理解,但也可能增加消费,对环境产生不利影响。研究结果表明,实施政策的目标是消除基于性别的教育障碍。这可能需要为送女儿上学的家庭提供经济奖励,并确保所有性别都能获得高质量的教育。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Financial Distress on Earnings Management with the Moderating Role of Audit Quality: Evidence from Pakistan 财务困境对收益管理的影响与审计质量的调节作用:巴基斯坦的证据
Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2024.6105
Syed Taha Fraz Haider Kazmi, Burhan Rasheed, Zohair Farooq Malik, Amer Shakeel, M. Awais Gulzar
The core aim of the financial reports is to provide a firm’s annual results of financial performance and position to stakeholders on time. Several accounting scandals led to the default of many large-scale corporations, leading to investors’ lack of confidence in the reliability of financial information and also putting a question mark on the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms and external audits. Business managers of financially distressed firms use the choice of accrual accounting methods which gives them leverage to misuse their powers and expropriate stakeholders by showing good financial results. So, this study fills this gap by investigating the presence of Financial Distress (FD) and its effect on Earnings Management (EM) with the moderating role of Audit Quality (AQ). The sample of this study contains the data of 96 non-financial listed companies for the period 2017-2022 on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). This study uses the discretionary accruals as a proxy for the EM and Z-score for FD. The results and analysis find that FD and EM have a significant positive relationship, which reveals that corporate managers of distressed companies do EM while AQ weakens this relationship. This study recommends that professional bodies, regulatory authorities, and corporate governance institutions must design policies that restrict corporate managers from getting involved in earning management practices, especially in the time of FD.
财务报告的核心目的是及时向利益相关者提供公司的年度财务业绩和状况。几起会计丑闻导致许多大型企业违约,使投资者对财务信息的可靠性缺乏信心,也对内部控制机制和外部审计的有效性打上了问号。陷入财务困境的企业的经营管理者会选择权责发生制会计方法,这就为他们滥用职权、通过展示良好的财务业绩来侵占利益相关者提供了筹码。因此,本研究通过研究财务困境(FD)的存在及其对收益管理(EM)的影响,以及审计质量(AQ)的调节作用,填补了这一空白。本研究的样本包含巴基斯坦证券交易所(PSX)96 家非金融类上市公司 2017-2022 年期间的数据。本研究使用全权应计制作为 EM 的替代变量,并使用 Z 值作为 FD 的替代变量。结果和分析发现,FD 和 EM 有着显著的正相关关系,这揭示了困境公司的企业管理者会做 EM,而 AQ 则会削弱这种关系。本研究建议,专业机构、监管当局和公司治理机构必须制定政策,限制公司经理参与收益管理实践,尤其是在 FD 时期。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Moderators on Product Quality and Export Flows: The Case of Pakistan 调节因素对产品质量和出口流量的作用:巴基斯坦案例
Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2024.6104
Sumaira Saeed, Miraj ul Haq, A. Bhatti
High-quality products are always in demand for both local and international markets. The demand for such products can be increased by the product sales at a domestic level.  It can also be helpful to increase the export flows of an economy and hence improve the trade flows. Other factors have a moderating role in determining the relationship between export product quality and trade flows. The objective of this study is to examine the role of moderating variables, which are used to check the strength of the above relationship. There are three variables: financial constraints, firm heterogeneity, and R&D activities are taken as moderators. For this purpose, the data is taken from annual financial reports of non-financial firms which are listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange. Also, some country-level data is taken from the Pakistan Economic Survey. The objective of the study was achieved by using panel techniques Fixed Effect, Random Effect Model for the period of 1999 to 2020. It is found that firm heterogeneity and R&D activities have positive and financial constraints have negative but significant effects on strengthening the relationship between product quality and export flows. Based on our findings, the government should provide R&D funds and financial aid programs for new investors to improve product quality and increase their sales in local and international markets.
本地和国际市场始终需要高质量的产品。在国内销售产品可以增加对此类产品的需求。 这也有助于增加一个经济体的出口流量,从而改善贸易流量。其他因素在决定出口产品质量与贸易流量之间的关系方面起着调节作用。本研究的目的是考察调节变量的作用,这些变量用于检验上述关系的强度。调节变量有三个:金融约束、企业异质性和研发活动。为此,数据取自在巴基斯坦证券交易所上市的非金融企业的年度财务报告。此外,一些国家层面的数据来自《巴基斯坦经济调查》。研究采用面板技术固定效应、随机效应模型来实现研究目标,时间跨度为 1999 年至 2020 年。研究发现,企业异质性和研发活动对加强产品质量与出口流量之间的关系有积极影响,而金融约束则有消极但显著的影响。根据我们的研究结果,政府应为新投资者提供研发资金和财政援助计划,以提高产品质量,增加其在本地和国际市场的销售额。
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引用次数: 0
Farmland Loss and Livelihood Effects: Diamond and Gold Mining Implications on Farmers’ Sustainability in Sierra Leone 农田丧失与生计影响:钻石和黄金开采对塞拉利昂农民可持续性的影响
Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2023.5309
Braima Pascal Komba, Almazea Fatima, Khalid Mushtaq, Sarfraz Hassan
Mining businesses are problematic in developing countries because they intrude on farming ecologies, rendering arable lands almost unavailable to farmers and making them unproductive. This paper expounds on the impact of agricultural land loss on mining activities in Kenema, as farming is the primary source of income for the locals; nevertheless, small-farm holdings are a definitive characteristic of this district. Using perceptions-based data gathered from 358 respondents, the software STATA 14 was employed to analyse the ordinal logit model. The results suggest that though mining operations gave the community quick income and short-term jobs, the negative impacts on farmers’ livelihood and outcomes surpass the benefits. The challenges farmers face from mining activities are Water pollution, displacement from their lands, and agricultural land degradation, and most get into illegal mining due to these constraints. This is mirrored in the average cultivation area of about 4 acres, with a relatively small harvest and an average monthly farm income of less than USD 40. Moreover, the results disclosed that the mines had increased land concession with less or no land reclamation or restoration. Therefore, it is recommended that all parties involved use a standardized method of communication that will prevent mining-related farmland encroachment. Moreover, it is good that authorities empower environmental law-enforcing bodies to monitor mining operations closely to ensure total compliance with the laws of the land management system.
在发展中国家,采矿业是一个问题,因为它们侵占了农业生态,使农民几乎无法使用可耕地,并使其失去生产力。本文阐述了农田流失对凯内马采矿活动的影响,因为农业是当地人的主要收入来源;然而,小农场是该地区的一个显著特点。利用从 358 名受访者那里收集到的基于认知的数据,使用 STATA 14 软件对序对数模型进行了分析。结果表明,虽然采矿活动给社区带来了快速收入和短期工作,但对农民生计和成果的负面影响超过了收益。采矿活动给农民带来的挑战包括水污染、流离失所和农田退化。农民的平均耕地面积约为 4 英亩,收成相对较少,月均农业收入不足 40 美元。此外,调查结果显示,矿山增加了土地出让金,但很少或根本没有进行土地复垦或恢复。因此,建议有关各方采用标准化的沟通方法,防止与采矿有关的侵占农田行为。此外,当局最好授权环境执法机构密切监督采矿作业,以确保完全遵守土地管理制度的法律。
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引用次数: 0
Role of Working Capital Management in Enhancing Firm Profitability: An Empirical Study on the Manufacturing Companies of Pakistan 营运资本管理在提高公司盈利能力中的作用:巴基斯坦制造业公司的实证研究
Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2023.5308
Sidra Tahir, Saira Baloch
Working capital management is a crucial instrument and one of the key aspects of any business management. It is considered as an accounting technique to maintain the organization's liquidity and financial balance and is regarded as a critical part of financial management in the company. This study emphasizes on investigating the role played by working capital management in enhancing the profitability of companies from the manufacturing sector listed in Pakistan stock exchange during the period 2018-2022. Return on equity and return on assets are used as the profitability measures; however, account receivable turnover, inventory turnover and cash conversion cycle are used as the measures of working capital management. To evaluate the results, the least square regression model is used. The results show that inventory turnover has a significant positive association with both ROA and ROE, which implies that inventory management and sales acceleration have a positive effect on the company's return on assets and return on equity. Similarly, the association of accounts receivable turnover with ROA and ROE is also significant and positive, demonstrating that good credit management and prompt receivables collection improve the return on equity and assets. The research also reveals a significant positive association of both ROA and ROE with the cash conversion cycle. Higher returns on assets and equity are connected with a higher cash conversion cycle. The results suggested that the managers should speed up the collection of receivables as quickly as possible and quickly sell the inventory so that the cash thus generated can be reinvested in productive assets, which can increase the company’s profitability. The study's findings provide an important guideline to financial managers in managing the appropriate level of working capital to enhance firms’ profitability.
营运资金管理是一项重要工具,也是任何企业管理的关键环节之一。它被认为是维持组织流动性和财务平衡的一种会计技术,是公司财务管理的重要组成部分。本研究强调调查 2018-2022 年期间营运资金管理在提高巴基斯坦证券交易所制造业上市公司盈利能力方面所发挥的作用。股本回报率和资产回报率被用作衡量盈利能力的指标;然而,应收账款周转率、存货周转率和现金转换周期被用作衡量营运资本管理的指标。为了评估结果,使用了最小平方回归模型。结果显示,存货周转率与 ROA 和 ROE 都有显著的正相关关系,这意味着存货管理和销售加速对公司的资产回报率和股本回报率有积极影响。同样,应收账款周转率与 ROA 和 ROE 的关系也是显著的正相关,表明良好的信用管理和及时的应收账款回收提高了股本回报率和资产回报率。研究还揭示了投资回报率和投资收益率与现金转换周期的显著正相关。较高的资产回报率和股本回报率与较高的现金转换周期有关。研究结果表明,管理者应尽快加快应收账款的回收速度,并迅速出售存货,以便将由此产生的现金重新投资于生产性资产,从而提高公司的盈利能力。研究结果为财务经理管理适当水平的营运资本以提高公司盈利能力提供了重要指导。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing Optimal Marketing Channels in the Vegetable Supply Chain: Exploring Factors Influencing Marketing Channel Selection 分析蔬菜供应链中的最佳营销渠道:探索影响营销渠道选择的因素
Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2023.5311
Tanvir Khaliq Shami, M. Naseer, Muhammad Khalid Bashir, Saher Jabeen, Sultan Ali Adil, Muhammad Shoaib Naseer, Nimra Amar
Potato is amongst most important vegetables being used in kitchens of ordinary and common men. The income elasticity of demand of potato is relatively high as compared with other vegetables. In Pakistan, the traditional fruit and vegetable markets and considered to be the places of pure competition and farmers are linked to these markets via different marketing channels. This study delves into the analysis of optimal marketing channels within the vegetable supply chain, with a focus on understanding the factors that influence the selection of these channels. The study used cross-sectional primary data gathered from different supply chain actors, including 120 potato growers, 20 retailers, 20 consumers, 16 commission agents, and 16 wholesalers from two districts of Punjab, namely Okara and Chinote.  This research employs a two-fold methodology. First, it involves the identification of the optimal marketing channel among five alternatives using a unique ranking technique methodology. Second, it employs regression analysis with binary endogenous treatment to discern the factors affecting the choice of marketing channels. The study sheds light on the intricacies of marketing channel decisions in the vegetable supply chain, offering insights into the preferences and considerations of stakeholders in the Okara and Chinote districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The findings of the study contribute not only to the understanding of optimal channel selection but also to the broader knowledge of the factors that influence these decisions. These insights are valuable for practitioners, policymakers, and researchers aiming to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of marketing strategies within the agricultural sector, benefiting farming communities and the country as a whole.
马铃薯是普通人厨房中最重要的蔬菜之一。与其他蔬菜相比,马铃薯的需求收入弹性相对较高。在巴基斯坦,传统的水果和蔬菜市场被认为是纯粹的竞争场所,农民通过不同的营销渠道与这些市场建立联系。本研究深入分析了蔬菜供应链中的最佳营销渠道,重点是了解影响这些渠道选择的因素。研究使用了从不同供应链参与者收集的横截面原始数据,包括旁遮普省奥卡拉和奇诺特两个地区的 120 个马铃薯种植者、20 个零售商、20 个消费者、16 个佣金代理和 16 个批发商。 这项研究采用了双重方法。首先,它采用独特的排序技术方法,从五个备选方案中确定最佳营销渠道。其次,研究采用二元内生处理回归分析法,以找出影响营销渠道选择的因素。该研究揭示了蔬菜供应链中营销渠道决策的复杂性,深入分析了巴基斯坦旁遮普省奥卡拉和奇诺特地区利益相关者的偏好和考虑因素。研究结果不仅有助于理解最佳渠道选择,还有助于更广泛地了解影响这些决策的因素。这些见解对于旨在提高农业部门营销战略的效率和有效性、造福农业社区和整个国家的从业人员、政策制定者和研究人员都很有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond Subsistence: Linking Citrus Smallholders to High-Value Markets for Sustainable Supply Chain Development in Pakistan 超越自给自足:将巴基斯坦柑橘小农与高价值市场联系起来,促进可持续供应链发展
Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2023.5310
M. Naseer, Amar Razzaq, Muhammad Ashfaq, M. Mehdi, Sajid Karim, Muhammad Shoaib Naseer
Recent evidence suggests that Modern Supply Chains (MSC) in the agrifood industry have the potential to improve production efficiency and scale. However, the inclusion of smallholders for Sustainable Supply Chain Development (SSCD) is a growing concern for policymakers aiming to increase the profitability of farming communities. This study investigates the efficiency and inclusiveness of farmers in the citrus supply chain at the upstream level and factors responsible for SSCD using survey data from the Punjab province of Pakistan. The study employs endogenous treatment effect and principal component analysis apart from the descriptive analysis to explore study objectives. Results indicate that large farmers with abundant resources tend to participate in MSC, whereas smallholders are more likely to be inclined to Traditional Supply Chain (TSC) networks. The study also finds that participating in MSC has a positive impact on farmers' efficiency, and factors such as off-farm income, orchard size, education level, and access to extension services significantly affect profitability. The results of the principal component analysis revealed that for SSCD, six sets of factors, such as performance and quality, risk and climate, economics and market exploitation, knowledge and information, geographic and transportation, and innovation capability, are addressable. Therefore, these results suggest that policymakers should provide training programs, agriculture extension services, improved infrastructure, and educational facilities in rural areas to help smallholders alleviate poverty by creating sustainability in the agri-food industry.
最近的证据表明,农业食品行业的现代供应链(MSC)具有提高生产效率和扩大生产规模的潜力。然而,对于旨在提高农业社区盈利能力的政策制定者来说,如何将小农户纳入可持续供应链发展(SSCD)是一个日益关注的问题。本研究利用巴基斯坦旁遮普省的调查数据,调查了柑橘供应链上游农户的效率和包容性,以及导致可持续供应链发展的因素。除描述性分析外,本研究还采用了内生处理效应和主成分分析来探讨研究目标。结果表明,资源丰富的大农户倾向于参与供应链,而小农户则更倾向于传统供应链网络。研究还发现,参与供应链对农民的效率有积极影响,而非农收入、果园规模、教育水平和获得推广服务的机会等因素会显著影响农民的盈利能力。主成分分析结果表明,对于小农自给自足农业发展而言,绩效与质量、风险与气候、经济与市场开发、知识与信息、地理与交通以及创新能力等六组因素是可以解决的。因此,这些结果表明,政策制定者应在农村地区提供培训计划、农业推广服务、改善基础设施和教育设施,通过创造农业食品行业的可持续性来帮助小农脱贫。
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引用次数: 0
Risk Tolerance and Investment Decisions among Credit Beneficiaries 信贷受益人的风险承受能力和投资决策
Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.52223/econimpact.2023.5305
Raza Ullah, Iqra Sarwar, Syed Muhammad Amir, Muhammad Rafay Muzamil, Ehsan Inamullah
Risk attitude and risk perceptions are two crucial factors that could influence an individual's investment decisions. In developing countries like Pakistan, the whole society experiences different risks; however, financial risk is an essential factor affecting investors' decisions. This study used a dataset of 120 respondents collected through face-to-face interviews from two districts of Punjab province. A logit model is used to assess the impact of various socio-economic and behavioral factors on respondents' decisions to invest the borrowed money in enterprises. The findings revealed that investment in low-risk enterprises and diversification of income were the two main strategies adopted by the survey respondents. The results further revealed that health risk perception has positive while risk tolerance has a negative influence on the decision to invest in low-risk enterprises to mitigate the adverse consequences of risks. The findings also revealed that education and the adoption of diversification of income sources are positively correlated, while the perception of non-repayment and coefficient of location are negatively correlated with the adoption of diversification of income sources. Additionally, the study recommends that the Government should make sustainable and investor-friendly credit policies and educate the general public on how to use credit efficiently.
风险态度和风险认知是影响个人投资决策的两个关键因素。在巴基斯坦这样的发展中国家,整个社会都面临着不同的风险;然而,金融风险是影响投资者决策的一个重要因素。本研究使用了通过面对面访谈从旁遮普省两个地区收集到的 120 名受访者的数据集。采用 logit 模型评估了各种社会经济和行为因素对受访者决定将借来的钱投资于企业的影响。调查结果显示,投资低风险企业和收入多样化是调查对象采取的两大主要策略。结果进一步显示,健康风险认知对投资低风险企业以减轻风险带来的不利后果的决定具有积极影响,而风险容忍度则具有消极影响。研究结果还显示,受教育程度与采取收入来源多样化呈正相关,而对不偿还的看法和所在地系数与采取收入来源多样化呈负相关。此外,研究还建议政府制定可持续的、对投资者友好的信贷政策,并教育公众如何有效利用信贷。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Economic Impact
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