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Forecasting rehabilitation needs in emerging economies: A multi-country analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 预测新兴经济体的康复需求:基于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的多国分析
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105345
Lang Chen , Chuwei Tian , Zhongkai Bian , Lijuan Gao , Wenwen Jiang , Hang Wu , Liu Shi , Qi Yong H. Ai , Yunfeng Rui , Hongxing Wang , Jinyu Wang

Background

Emerging economies, represented by BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, Russian Federation and South Africa), have a substantial impact on the global rehabilitation needs. However, the rehabilitation needs of BRICS countries remain unascertained. This study aimed to explore the rehabilitation needs of the BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021 and predict the trend of rehabilitation needs.

Methods

Relevant data pertaining to eight condition categories (encompassing 27 individual conditions) requiring rehabilitation were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The joinpoint regression models were employed to calculate average annual percentage changes to quantify trends in age-standardized rates. The autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to predict rehabilitation needs until 2036.

Results

The number of prevalent cases of total conditions requiring rehabilitation increased from 634 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 608–664) in 1990 to 1.093 billion (95% UI 1.056–1.135) in 2021, an increase of 72.2%. The years lived with disability counts of total conditions increased from 79 million (95% UI 60–101) in 1990 to 147 million (95% UI 112–189) in 2021, an increase of 85.6%. Since 1990, the age-standardized prevalence rates of total rehabilitation needs have been decreasing in all BRICS countries. The number of people needing rehabilitation will continue to grow, with 1.469 billion people in BRICS countries requiring rehabilitation services by 2036. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation in BRICS countries was musculoskeletal disorders with about 676 million people (95% UI 630–716) across eight condition categories, and hearing loss with 232 million people (95% UI 205–260) among 27 individual conditions.

Conclusions

The need for rehabilitation in BRICS countries has increased substantially over the past 32 years and will continue to increase until 2036. Although the rehabilitation needs are based on modeled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we strongly recommend that rehabilitation services targeting these needs, particularly for musculoskeletal disorders and hearing loss within sensory impairments, be integrated into primary care systems.
以金砖国家(巴西、中国、印度、俄罗斯联邦和南非)为代表的新兴经济体对全球重建需求产生了重大影响。然而,金砖国家的复苏需求仍未确定。本研究旨在探讨1990 - 2021年金砖国家的康复需求,并预测康复需求的趋势。方法从2021年全球疾病负担研究中检索需要康复的8种疾病类别(包括27种个体疾病)的相关数据。采用结合点回归模型计算平均年百分比变化,量化年龄标准化率的趋势。采用自回归综合移动平均模型预测至2036年的康复需求。结果康复总病例数从1990年的6.34亿例(95%不确定区间[UI] 608 ~ 664)增加到2021年的10.93亿例(95%不确定区间[UI] 1.056 ~ 1.135),增长72.2%。总状况下的残疾生活年数从1990年的7900万(95% UI 60-101)增加到2021年的1.47亿(95% UI 112-189),增加了85.6%。自1990年以来,在所有金砖国家中,完全康复需求的年龄标准化患病率一直在下降。需要康复的人数将继续增长,到2036年,金砖国家需要康复服务的人数将达到14.69亿。在金砖国家,对康复需求贡献最大的是肌肉骨骼疾病,在8种疾病类别中约有6.76亿人(95% UI 630-716),以及听力损失,在27种疾病类别中有2.32亿人(95% UI 205-260)。在过去的32年里,金砖国家对康复的需求大幅增加,并将持续增加到2036年。虽然康复需求是基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的模型估计,但我们强烈建议将针对这些需求的康复服务,特别是针对感觉障碍中的肌肉骨骼疾病和听力损失的康复服务纳入初级保健系统。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of postoperative back massage on pain, sleep outcomes and serum cortisol after open-heart surgery: A randomized controlled trial 术后背部按摩对心内直视手术后疼痛、睡眠结果和血清皮质醇的影响:一项随机对照试验
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105343
Yasemin Özhanlı , Ayşegül Güneş , Nuray Akyüz , Suna Uzun , Müşerref Kurt , Oğuz Omay , Berna Yıldırım Şık , Şükriye Şahin

Background

Massage is widely recognized as an effective non-pharmacological intervention for reducing pain and anxiety after cardiac surgery. However, its effects on sleep outcomes and biological stress markers remain underexplored.

Aim

To evaluate the impact of back massage on postoperative pain, subjective and objective sleep outcomes, and serum cortisol levels in patients undergoing open-heart surgery.

Methods

A prospective randomized controlled trial was conducted with 72 patients scheduled for elective open-heart surgery. Participants were randomized (1:1) to an intervention group (back massage) or a control group (routine care with light touch). The intervention consisted of three standardized sessions (15–20 min each) on the first postoperative day. Outcomes included pain (Numeric Rating Scale-Pain), subjective sleep quality (Richard–Campbell Sleep Scale), objective sleep duration (smartwatch measurement), and serum cortisol levels. Data were analyzed using repeated-measures analysis of variance and Brunner–Langer tests in a per-protocol population (n = 64).

Results

Back massage was associated with significantly longer total sleep duration (p = 0.037) and greater reduction in pain scores, with significant group, time, and group × time effects (p = 0.002, p < 0.001, p = 0.048). Cortisol levels decreased over time in both groups (p < 0.001), but without significant between-group differences. Subjective sleep quality improved in both groups, and analgesic use declined, with no significant variation between groups. No adverse events were observed.

Conclusion

This randomized controlled trial demonstrates that back massage is a safe and feasible intervention after open-heart surgery, improving objectively measured sleep duration and reducing pain. By incorporating objective sleep measures and a biological stress marker (serum cortisol), this study provides novel insights that extend beyond the traditionally reported outcomes of pain and anxiety, supporting massage as a complementary strategy within multimodal nursing care.
按摩被广泛认为是减轻心脏手术后疼痛和焦虑的有效非药物干预手段。然而,它对睡眠结果和生物应激标志物的影响仍未得到充分研究。目的评价背部按摩对心内直视手术患者术后疼痛、主客观睡眠结局及血清皮质醇水平的影响。方法对72例择期心内直视手术患者进行前瞻性随机对照试验。参与者被随机(1:1)分为干预组(背部按摩)或对照组(轻触的常规护理)。干预包括术后第一天的三个标准化疗程(每次15-20分钟)。结果包括疼痛(数值评定量表-疼痛)、主观睡眠质量(理查德-坎贝尔睡眠量表)、客观睡眠持续时间(智能手表测量)和血清皮质醇水平。采用重复测量方差分析和每个方案人群(n = 64)的Brunner-Langer检验对数据进行分析。结果背部按摩与总睡眠时间显著延长(p = 0.037)、疼痛评分显著降低相关,组效、时间效应和组×时间效应均显著(p = 0.002, p < 0.001, p = 0.048)。两组皮质醇水平均随时间下降(p < 0.001),但组间无显著差异。两组的主观睡眠质量均有所改善,镇痛药的使用有所减少,两组间无显著差异。未观察到不良事件。结论本随机对照试验表明,背部按摩是一种安全可行的心脏直视手术后干预措施,可改善客观测量的睡眠时间,减轻疼痛。通过结合客观睡眠测量和生物应激标志物(血清皮质醇),本研究提供了超越传统报道的疼痛和焦虑结果的新颖见解,支持按摩作为多模式护理中的补充策略。
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引用次数: 0
Construction of a classification system for long-term care service needs among the elderly based on cluster analysis and machine learning: A multi-center, cross-sectional study in central China 基于聚类分析和机器学习的老年人长期护理服务需求分类体系构建——中部地区多中心横断面研究
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105344
Fang Li , Weihong Huang , Yuting Zeng , Yanfang Long , Jing Peng , Jianzhong Hu , Jing Li , Xi Chen , Li Li

Background

Rapid global aging has led to an increasing demand for long-term care services for the elderly; however, current long-term care systems are underdeveloped and under-resourced. It is essential to develop an effective classification system to guide resource allocation that is tailored to the needs of the elderly.

Objectives

This study aimed to construct a classification system for long-term care service needs among the elderly based on cluster analysis and machine learning.

Design

Multi-center, cross-sectional study.

Settings

Community and nursing homes in Changsha, Hunan Province, China.

Participants

1270 elderly aged ≥ 65 years, who were randomly divided into the training set (70%) and test set (30%).

Methods

Cluster analysis was conducted based on service time from caregivers, nurses, and doctors. Machine learning approaches were used to determine classification criteria based on sociodemographic information and 17 secondary indicators of long-term care service needs. The best model was selected based on its accuracy and area under the curve in the test set and was then interpreted using Shapley Additive exPlanations.

Results

Five clusters of needs for long-term care services were identified, with the number and proportion of participants in each cluster as follows: 612 (48.2%), 299 (23.5%), 172 (13.5%), 150 (11.8%), and 37 (2.9%), respectively. The five clusters varied significantly in sociodemographic characteristics and long-term care service needs. The random forest model demonstrated the best predictive performance among the five models tested. The Shapley Additive exPlanations method identified the 10 most influential features that impacted the random forest model predictions.

Conclusions

The classification system for long-term care service needs can accurately distinguish among the elderly with varying levels of long-term care needs, guiding optimal service allocation and promoting the sustainable development of the long-term care service system.

Trial registration

The trial is registered at the Ethics Committee of Xiangya Hospital, Central South University (No. 202105083). Registration date 05/2021. First recruitment 06/2021.
全球快速老龄化导致对老年人长期护理服务的需求不断增加;然而,目前的长期护理系统不发达且资源不足。必须建立有效的分类制度,以指导适合老年人需要的资源分配。目的构建基于聚类分析和机器学习的老年人长期护理服务需求分类体系。设计多中心、横断面研究。中国湖南省长沙市的社区和养老院。参与者1270名年龄≥65岁的老年人,随机分为训练集(70%)和测试集(30%)。方法对护理人员、护士和医生的服务时间进行聚类分析。使用机器学习方法根据社会人口统计信息和17个长期护理服务需求的次要指标确定分类标准。根据测试集的精度和曲线下面积选择最佳模型,然后使用Shapley加性解释进行解释。结果共划分出5类长期护理服务需求,每类需求参与人数和比例分别为612人(48.2%)、299人(23.5%)、172人(13.5%)、150人(11.8%)和37人(2.9%)。这五个组在社会人口特征和长期护理服务需求方面差异显著。随机森林模型的预测效果最好。沙普利加性解释方法确定了影响随机森林模型预测的10个最具影响力的特征。结论长期护理服务需求分类体系可以准确区分不同水平的老年人的长期护理需求,指导优化服务配置,促进长期护理服务体系的可持续发展。本试验在中南大学湘雅医院伦理委员会注册(编号:202105083)。注册日期为2021年5月。2021年6月首次招聘。
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引用次数: 0
Implementing integrated care for older adults in primary health care: A systematic scoping review 在初级卫生保健中实施老年人综合护理:一项系统的范围审查
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105342
Mingyao Sun , Jingyi Liu , Mo Yi , Siye Chen , Yaqi Huang , Yan Ivy Zhao , Angela Yee Man Leung , Zhiwen Wang

Background

As populations age worldwide, primary health care systems face increasing challenges in addressing the complex health and social needs of older adults. Integrated care offers a promising approach to promote healthy ageing by providing coordinated, person-centred services across care settings. However, there is a lack of synthesised evidence on integrated care implementation in primary health care, which limits our understanding of its full potential.

Objective

To map how integrated care for older adults has been implemented in primary health care worldwide, identify the most scalable components, and highlight practice and policy implications for strengthening primary health care systems.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review to synthesise evidence on the implementation and outcomes of integrated care interventions for older adults in primary health care settings. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL for studies published in the past ten years. Eligible studies included interventional designs targeting individuals aged ≥ 60 years and implemented integrated care as defined by the WHO. Data were extracted and analysed using narrative synthesis and frequency analysis.

Results

A total of 181 studies across 26 countries were included. Most interventions were community- or primary health care-based, multidisciplinary (91%), and involved cross-sectoral integration (47%). Core components included care coordination/personalised care planning (67%), physical activity (40%), health education (38%), and psychosocial support (29%). Overall, 88% of studies reported positive outcomes, most often at the patient level. However, implementation outcomes such as acceptability (21%), feasibility (19%), and fidelity (9%) were inconsistently assessed. Evidence was dominated by high-income settings, with limited representation from low- and middle-income countries.

Conclusions

Integrated care in primary health care shows broad potential to improve outcomes for older adults, particularly when built around care coordination, team-based delivery, and person-centred planning. Scalable models are those that use existing primary health care resources, integrate community health workers, and employ low-cost digital tools. Yet critical gaps remain in implementation fidelity, sustainability, and equity, especially in resource-limited settings. Embedding integrated care within quality improvement cycles can accelerate adoption and adaptation, offering a pathway for primary health care systems worldwide to promote healthy ageing.
随着全球人口老龄化,初级卫生保健系统在解决老年人复杂的健康和社会需求方面面临越来越大的挑战。综合护理通过在各个护理环境中提供协调的、以人为本的服务,为促进健康老龄化提供了一种很有希望的方法。然而,在初级卫生保健中缺乏综合护理实施的综合证据,这限制了我们对其全部潜力的理解。目的了解全球初级卫生保健中老年人综合护理的实施情况,确定最具可扩展性的组成部分,并强调对加强初级卫生保健系统的实践和政策影响。方法:我们进行了一项范围综述,以综合有关初级卫生保健机构老年人综合护理干预措施的实施和结果的证据。我们系统地检索了PubMed, Embase和CINAHL在过去十年中发表的研究。符合条件的研究包括针对年龄≥60岁的个体的干预设计,并实施WHO定义的综合护理。数据提取和分析采用叙事综合和频率分析。结果共纳入26个国家的181项研究。大多数干预措施以社区或初级卫生保健为基础,多学科(91%),并涉及跨部门整合(47%)。核心组成部分包括护理协调/个性化护理计划(67%)、身体活动(40%)、健康教育(38%)和心理社会支持(29%)。总体而言,88%的研究报告了积极的结果,大多数是在患者层面。然而,实施结果如可接受性(21%)、可行性(19%)和保真度(9%)的评估不一致。证据主要来自高收入环境,来自低收入和中等收入国家的代表性有限。结论:初级卫生保健中的综合护理显示出改善老年人预后的广泛潜力,特别是在围绕护理协调、以团队为基础的交付和以人为本的规划建立时。可扩展模式是指那些利用现有初级卫生保健资源、整合社区卫生工作者和采用低成本数字工具的模式。然而,在执行保真度、可持续性和公平性方面仍存在重大差距,特别是在资源有限的情况下。将综合保健纳入质量改进周期可以加速采用和适应,为全世界初级卫生保健系统促进健康老龄化提供一条途径。
{"title":"Implementing integrated care for older adults in primary health care: A systematic scoping review","authors":"Mingyao Sun ,&nbsp;Jingyi Liu ,&nbsp;Mo Yi ,&nbsp;Siye Chen ,&nbsp;Yaqi Huang ,&nbsp;Yan Ivy Zhao ,&nbsp;Angela Yee Man Leung ,&nbsp;Zhiwen Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>As populations age worldwide, primary health care systems face increasing challenges in addressing the complex health and social needs of older adults. Integrated care offers a promising approach to promote healthy ageing by providing coordinated, person-centred services across care settings. However, there is a lack of synthesised evidence on integrated care implementation in primary health care, which limits our understanding of its full potential.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>To map how integrated care for older adults has been implemented in primary health care worldwide, identify the most scalable components, and highlight practice and policy implications for strengthening primary health care systems.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We conducted a scoping review to synthesise evidence on the implementation and outcomes of integrated care interventions for older adults in primary health care settings. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL for studies published in the past ten years. Eligible studies included interventional designs targeting individuals aged ≥<!--> <!-->60 years and implemented integrated care as defined by the WHO. Data were extracted and analysed using narrative synthesis and frequency analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>A total of 181 studies across 26 countries were included. Most interventions were community- or primary health care-based, multidisciplinary (91%), and involved cross-sectoral integration (47%). Core components included care coordination/personalised care planning (67%), physical activity (40%), health education (38%), and psychosocial support (29%). Overall, 88% of studies reported positive outcomes, most often at the patient level. However, implementation outcomes such as acceptability (21%), feasibility (19%), and fidelity (9%) were inconsistently assessed. Evidence was dominated by high-income settings, with limited representation from low- and middle-income countries.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Integrated care in primary health care shows broad potential to improve outcomes for older adults, particularly when built around care coordination, team-based delivery, and person-centred planning. Scalable models are those that use existing primary health care resources, integrate community health workers, and employ low-cost digital tools. Yet critical gaps remain in implementation fidelity, sustainability, and equity, especially in resource-limited settings. Embedding integrated care within quality improvement cycles can accelerate adoption and adaptation, offering a pathway for primary health care systems worldwide to promote healthy ageing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50299,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Nursing Studies","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105342"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital communication services facilitating nurse–patient dialog for home dwelling older adults: A scoping review 数字通信服务促进居家老年人的护患对话:范围审查
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105340
Katrine Staats , Ying Jiang , Xi Vivien Wu , Ellen Karine Grov , Ann-Helen Torstveit

Background

The global aging population presents significant challenges for healthcare systems, as older adults often face chronic illnesses, functional limitations, and emotional challenges. Effective communication between nurses and home-dwelling older adults plays a key role in assessing needs, coordinating services, and ensuring quality care. Digital communication services have emerged as promising tools to enhance nurse–patient dialog. However, barriers such as physical or cognitive impairments, limited digital literacy, and usability challenges hinder their adoption and effectiveness.

Objective

This scoping review aimed to map existing evidence on how digital communication services facilitate nurse–patient dialog for home-dwelling older adults.

Design

A scoping review was performed following Arksey and O'Malley's framework.

Data sources

A systematic search was carried out in April 2024 with an updated search in May 2025, across five electronic databases: Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL (EBSCOhost) and Web of Science.

Results

A total of 37 studies were included in the review, highlighting the overarching theme of “nodes in the digital nurse-patient communication”, with three main themes: (1) digital communication services, (2) dynamic nurse–patient relationship and, (3) challenges in maintaining effective dialog.

Conclusion

Digital communication services, such as mobile applications, telemonitoring systems, and video conferencing, have the potential to enhance nurse–patient interactions by improving safety, efficiency, and emotional well-being. However, success depends on addressing usability challenges and supporting nurses with adequate resources. While digital tools cannot fully replicate trust, empathy, and dignity fostered through in-person interactions, hybrid care models integrating digital tools with in-person visits may offer promising approaches to delivering person-centered, dignified care that empowers older adults to live independently and securely in their homes.
全球人口老龄化给医疗保健系统带来了重大挑战,因为老年人经常面临慢性疾病、功能限制和情感挑战。护士和居家老年人之间的有效沟通在评估需求、协调服务和确保优质护理方面发挥着关键作用。数字通信服务已成为加强护患对话的有前途的工具。然而,身体或认知障碍、有限的数字素养和可用性挑战等障碍阻碍了它们的采用和有效性。目的:本综述旨在绘制现有证据,说明数字通信服务如何促进居家老年人的护患对话。DesignA根据Arksey和O'Malley的框架进行了范围审查。数据来源在Medline、Embase、PsycINFO、CINAHL (EBSCOhost)和Web of Science 5个电子数据库中,于2024年4月进行了系统检索,并于2025年5月进行了更新检索。结果共纳入37项研究,突出了“数字化护患沟通中的节点”这一总体主题,主要有三个主题:(1)数字化沟通服务;(2)动态护患关系;(3)维持有效对话的挑战。结论数字通信服务,如移动应用程序、远程监控系统和视频会议,有可能通过提高安全性、效率和情绪幸福感来加强护患互动。然而,成功取决于解决可用性挑战并为护士提供足够的资源。虽然数字工具无法完全复制通过面对面互动培养的信任、同理心和尊严,但将数字工具与面对面访问相结合的混合护理模式可能为提供以人为本、有尊严的护理提供有希望的方法,使老年人能够独立、安全地生活在家中。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of a nurse-led smartphone-based intervention after coronary artery bypass grafting: A randomised controlled trial 冠状动脉旁路移植术后护士主导的智能手机干预的效果:一项随机对照试验
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105341
Mohammadamin Mahmoodi , Mahnaz Antikchi , Shaghayegh Saeidinasab , Fatemeh Bakhshi
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Patients after coronary artery bypass grafting often face suboptimal recovery, including pain, reduced quality of life, and haemodynamic instability, worsened by limited self-care knowledge and inadequate post-discharge support. Nurse-led smartphone-based interventions may offer a scalable solution for resource-limited settings.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>To evaluate the effects of a nurse-led, smartphone-based educational and follow-up intervention on pain, quality of life, and haemodynamic stability in patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass grafting.</div></div><div><h3>Design</h3><div>Single-blind, randomized controlled trial.</div></div><div><h3>Settings</h3><div>A tertiary cardiac surgery center in Shiraz, Iran, from July 2024 to April 2025.</div></div><div><h3>Participants</h3><div>Eighty-four adults undergoing elective coronary artery bypass grafting, randomized (1:1) to intervention or control groups, with 80 completing the study (40 per group).</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The intervention group received a three-phase programme: (1) pre-operative education via videos, messages, and a face-to-face session; (2) in-hospital education and daily symptom monitoring for pain and self-care; (3) 30-day post-discharge follow-up with weekly nurse-led calls and real-time messaging. Controls received standard care with one handout. Outcomes included pain (visual analog scale), quality of life (SF-36 Health Survey), and hemodynamic indices (blood pressure, heart rate). Pain and haemodynamic indices were assessed at baseline, three times daily for four days in the general ward following post-intensive care unit discharge (12 time points), and weekly post-discharge (days 7, 14, 21, 30; 4 time points), totaling 17 assessments. Quality of life was assessed at baseline and 30 days post-discharge. Data were analyzed using Mann–Whitney U tests, t-tests, and repeated-measures analysis of variance.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The intervention group had lower pain scores (in-hospital: 3.96 ± 0.42 vs. 4.29 ± 0.35, p < 0.001, d = −<!--> <!-->0.85, 95% CI -0.50 to −<!--> <!-->0.16; post-discharge: 1.45 ± 0.38 vs. 2.01 ± 0.50, p < 0.001, d = −<!--> <!-->1.26, 95% CI -0.76 to −<!--> <!-->0.36) and reduced post-discharge blood pressure and heart rate. Total quality of life scores showed no significant between-group differences at 30 days (adjusted ANCOVA: adjusted mean difference = 0.15, 95% CI −<!--> <!-->1.27 to 1.57, p = 0.832), while the pain domain improved significantly in the intervention group (p = 0.002, r = −<!--> <!-->0.35). Group-by-time interactions were significant for pain and haemodynamic outcomes (p < 0.05).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>This nurse-led, smartphone-based intervention reduced pain, improved pain-related quality of life, and stabilized haemodynamic parameters post-coronary artery bypass grafting. Easily integrated into nursing practice, it support
背景:冠状动脉旁路移植术后的患者往往面临不理想的恢复,包括疼痛、生活质量下降和血流动力学不稳定,由于有限的自我护理知识和不充分的出院后支持而恶化。护士主导的基于智能手机的干预措施可能为资源有限的环境提供可扩展的解决方案。目的评价护士主导、基于智能手机的教育和随访干预对择期冠状动脉旁路移植术患者疼痛、生活质量和血流动力学稳定性的影响。设计:单盲、随机对照试验。从2024年7月到2025年4月,位于伊朗设拉子的三级心脏手术中心。参与者:84名接受选择性冠状动脉旁路移植术的成年人,随机(1:1)分为干预组或对照组,80人完成研究(每组40人)。方法干预组采用三阶段方案:(1)术前教育,包括视频教育、信息教育和面授教育;(2)住院教育和日常疼痛症状监测及自我护理;(3)出院后30天随访,每周由护士主导电话和实时短信。对照组接受标准治疗,并提供一份讲义。结果包括疼痛(视觉模拟量表)、生活质量(SF-36健康调查)和血流动力学指标(血压、心率)。在基线时评估疼痛和血流动力学指标,在重症监护室出院后的普通病房每天评估3次,持续4天(12个时间点),并在出院后每周评估(第7、14、21、30天;4个时间点),共计17次评估。在基线和出院后30天评估生活质量。数据分析采用Mann-Whitney U检验、t检验和重复测量方差分析。结果干预组疼痛评分较低(住院:3.96±0.42比4.29±0.35,p < 0.001, d = - 0.85, 95% CI -0.50 ~ - 0.16;出院后:1.45±0.38比2.01±0.50,p < 0.001, d = - 1.26, 95% CI -0.76 ~ - 0.36),出院后血压和心率降低。总生活质量评分在30天组间无显著差异(校正ANCOVA:校正平均差= 0.15,95% CI = - 1.27 ~ 1.57, p = 0.832),而干预组疼痛域明显改善(p = 0.002, r = - 0.35)。按时间分组的相互作用对疼痛和血流动力学结果有显著影响(p < 0.05)。结论这种以护士为主导的智能手机干预减少了冠状动脉旁路移植术后的疼痛,改善了疼痛相关的生活质量,并稳定了血流动力学参数。它很容易融入护理实践,支持资源有限环境下的康复,值得进一步研究。注册于伊朗临床试验注册中心,IRCT20240426061574N1,注册于2024年6月5日,https://irct.behdasht.gov.ir/search/result?query=IRCT20240426061574N1.Social媒体摘要护士主导的智能手机干预可减少冠状动脉搭桥术后患者30天内的疼痛并稳定血流动力学。
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引用次数: 0
Why primary caregivers fail to report pediatric pain: A qualitative study 为什么初级护理人员没有报告儿科疼痛:一项定性研究
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105339
Qiao Shen , Xiaoqiong Wei , Dong Roman Xu , Xiaoping Jiang , Hangyang Li , Hongyao Leng , Xianlan Zheng

Background

In many East Asian hospital settings where family members are closely involved in bedside care, caregivers play a crucial role in recognizing and reporting children's pain during hospitalization. Yet they often fail to inform healthcare providers, leading to inadequate interventions and prolonged suffering. While previous studies focused on whether pain is reported, the psychological mechanisms underlying non-reporting remain poorly understood, limiting the development of effective support strategies.

Objective

To explore why primary caregivers failed to report pediatric pain to healthcare providers, focusing on their decision-making process and influencing factors.

Design

Qualitative descriptive study.

Setting(s)

Multiple medical and surgical wards of a tertiary pediatric hospital in Chongqing, China.

Participants

Seventeen primary caregivers who observed their child in pain but did not report it to healthcare providers were purposively recruited.

Methods

Semi-structured interviews were conducted between January and March 2025. Data were analyzed using directed content analysis guided by Protection Motivation Theory.

Results

Five themes and 17 subthemes were identified, revealing that caregivers' failure to report pediatric pain is a dynamic process shaped by attention activation, threat appraisal, coping appraisal, individual factors, and environmental factors. The process often begins with attentional filtering, where pain cues are overlooked due to competing demands or perceived normality. Once attention is activated, caregivers engage in threat and coping appraisals, which may involve underestimating the threat of pain, valuing pain tolerance, doubting reporting efficacy, holding strong self-management beliefs, or anticipating costs. These dual-path appraisals are influenced by personal traits and prior experiences, along with environmental factors like verbal persuasion, observational learning, and healthcare constraints, with some directly impeding communication. Together, these elements interact to suppress reporting, often accompanied by alternative soothing strategies.

Conclusions

Caregivers' failure to report pediatric pain is not a simple omission but a result of complex cognitive and contextual processes. Attentional disengagement and biased appraisals, shaped by personal beliefs and environmental cues, jointly suppress reporting behaviors. Understanding these mechanisms offers a foundation for targeted interventions that enhance caregiver awareness, reshape pain perceptions, and promote supportive communication in pediatric care.

Registration

Not registered.
在许多家庭成员密切参与床边护理的东亚医院环境中,护理人员在识别和报告住院期间儿童疼痛方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,他们往往没有通知卫生保健提供者,导致干预措施不足和长期痛苦。虽然以前的研究集中在疼痛是否被报告,但不报告的心理机制仍然知之甚少,限制了有效支持策略的发展。目的探讨初级护理人员未向医疗服务提供者报告儿童疼痛的原因,重点分析其决策过程及其影响因素。设计定性描述性研究。中国重庆某三级儿科医院的多个内科和外科病房。参与者:有目的地招募了17名观察到孩子疼痛但没有向医疗保健提供者报告的主要照顾者。方法于2025年1月~ 3月进行半结构化访谈。数据分析采用保护动机理论指导下的定向内容分析。结果共确定了5个主题和17个副主题,揭示了照顾者不报告儿童疼痛是一个受注意激活、威胁评价、应对评价、个体因素和环境因素共同影响的动态过程。这个过程通常从注意力过滤开始,在这个过程中,由于相互竞争的需求或感知到的正常情况,疼痛线索被忽视了。一旦注意力被激活,护理人员就会进行威胁和应对评估,这可能包括低估疼痛的威胁、重视疼痛耐受性、怀疑报告的有效性、持有强烈的自我管理信念或预期成本。这些双路径评估受到个人特征和先前经历的影响,以及语言说服、观察学习和医疗保健限制等环境因素的影响,其中一些直接阻碍了沟通。总之,这些因素相互作用,抑制报告,通常伴随着其他安抚策略。结论护理人员对儿童疼痛的漏报不是简单的疏漏,而是复杂的认知和情境过程的结果。由个人信念和环境线索形成的注意力脱离和有偏见的评估共同抑制了报告行为。了解这些机制为有针对性的干预提供了基础,这些干预可以提高护理人员的意识,重塑疼痛感知,并促进儿科护理中的支持性沟通。RegistrationNot注册。
{"title":"Why primary caregivers fail to report pediatric pain: A qualitative study","authors":"Qiao Shen ,&nbsp;Xiaoqiong Wei ,&nbsp;Dong Roman Xu ,&nbsp;Xiaoping Jiang ,&nbsp;Hangyang Li ,&nbsp;Hongyao Leng ,&nbsp;Xianlan Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>In many East Asian hospital settings where family members are closely involved in bedside care, caregivers play a crucial role in recognizing and reporting children's pain during hospitalization. Yet they often fail to inform healthcare providers, leading to inadequate interventions and prolonged suffering. While previous studies focused on whether pain is reported, the psychological mechanisms underlying non-reporting remain poorly understood, limiting the development of effective support strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>To explore why primary caregivers failed to report pediatric pain to healthcare providers, focusing on their decision-making process and influencing factors.</div></div><div><h3>Design</h3><div>Qualitative descriptive study.</div></div><div><h3>Setting(s)</h3><div>Multiple medical and surgical wards of a tertiary pediatric hospital in Chongqing, China.</div></div><div><h3>Participants</h3><div>Seventeen primary caregivers who observed their child in pain but did not report it to healthcare providers were purposively recruited.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Semi-structured interviews were conducted between January and March 2025. Data were analyzed using directed content analysis guided by Protection Motivation Theory.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Five themes and 17 subthemes were identified, revealing that caregivers' failure to report pediatric pain is a dynamic process shaped by attention activation, threat appraisal, coping appraisal, individual factors, and environmental factors. The process often begins with attentional filtering, where pain cues are overlooked due to competing demands or perceived normality. Once attention is activated, caregivers engage in threat and coping appraisals, which may involve underestimating the threat of pain, valuing pain tolerance, doubting reporting efficacy, holding strong self-management beliefs, or anticipating costs. These dual-path appraisals are influenced by personal traits and prior experiences, along with environmental factors like verbal persuasion, observational learning, and healthcare constraints, with some directly impeding communication. Together, these elements interact to suppress reporting, often accompanied by alternative soothing strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Caregivers' failure to report pediatric pain is not a simple omission but a result of complex cognitive and contextual processes. Attentional disengagement and biased appraisals, shaped by personal beliefs and environmental cues, jointly suppress reporting behaviors. Understanding these mechanisms offers a foundation for targeted interventions that enhance caregiver awareness, reshape pain perceptions, and promote supportive communication in pediatric care.</div></div><div><h3>Registration</h3><div>Not registered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50299,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Nursing Studies","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105339"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145961706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Strategies to promote effective staff-family relationships in the care of older people in residential aged care settings: A systematic review 促进有效的工作人员-家庭关系的策略,以照顾老年人在住宿养老机构:一个系统的回顾
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105338
Emily Haesler , Linda McAuliffe , Deirdre Fetherstonhaugh , Kane Solly

Background

In residential aged care settings, the relationships between family members and care staff are recognised as a factor in high quality care.

Objective

To determine the effectiveness of interventions designed to promote constructive staff-family relationships in the care of older people in aged care facilities.

Design

Systematic review and planned meta-analysis.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted using a comprehensive search, updating a previous review. Searches were conducted in seven electronic databases to 17 December 2024. Risk of bias was assessed by two independent reviewers using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool (ROB-2) and Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I). Statistical analysis was not possible due to incomplete data reporting in most studies. GRADE Certainty of Evidence was conducted using the GRADEPro GDT software.

Results

There were nine studies identified. Studies reported outcome measures that reflected characteristics of a constructive staff-family relationship, the experience of staff, the experience of family and outcomes relevant to older people receiving care. There was moderate certainty of evidence that an intervention designed to promote a constructive staff-family relationship might lead to small absolute benefits for older people, particularly reduction in hospital transfers. The evidence for quantifiable benefits for staff and family members was highly uncertain.

Conclusions

Through a comprehensive review and evidence evaluation, we have identified that interventions to promote staff-family relationships require long term organisation and staff commitment, may require high intensity and durations to achieve a sustained impact, and the outcomes may be better evaluated using person-level analysis and qualitative data.

Registration number

Prospero: CRD42023453919.
在养老院,家庭成员和护理人员之间的关系被认为是高质量护理的一个因素。
{"title":"Strategies to promote effective staff-family relationships in the care of older people in residential aged care settings: A systematic review","authors":"Emily Haesler ,&nbsp;Linda McAuliffe ,&nbsp;Deirdre Fetherstonhaugh ,&nbsp;Kane Solly","doi":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>In residential aged care settings, the relationships between family members and care staff are recognised as a factor in high quality care.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>To determine the effectiveness of interventions designed to promote constructive staff-family relationships in the care of older people in aged care facilities.</div></div><div><h3>Design</h3><div>Systematic review and planned meta-analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A systematic review was conducted using a comprehensive search, updating a previous review. Searches were conducted in seven electronic databases to 17 December 2024. Risk of bias was assessed by two independent reviewers using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool (ROB-2) and Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I). Statistical analysis was not possible due to incomplete data reporting in most studies. GRADE Certainty of Evidence was conducted using the GRADEPro GDT software.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>There were nine studies identified. Studies reported outcome measures that reflected characteristics of a constructive staff-family relationship, the experience of staff, the experience of family and outcomes relevant to older people receiving care. There was moderate certainty of evidence that an intervention designed to promote a constructive staff-family relationship might lead to small absolute benefits for older people, particularly reduction in hospital transfers. The evidence for quantifiable benefits for staff and family members was highly uncertain.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Through a comprehensive review and evidence evaluation, we have identified that interventions to promote staff-family relationships require long term organisation and staff commitment, may require high intensity and durations to achieve a sustained impact, and the outcomes may be better evaluated using person-level analysis and qualitative data.</div></div><div><h3>Registration number</h3><div>Prospero: CRD42023453919.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50299,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Nursing Studies","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105338"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effectiveness of Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions on behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia: A systematic review and meta-analysis 基于需求驱动的痴呆妥协行为模型干预痴呆行为和心理症状的有效性:系统回顾和荟萃分析
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105337
Jun-ah Song, Yoosun Yang, Iktae Kim, Jiyeon Kim, Soyeon Hong, Hongjin Cheon
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia occur in most people with dementia. The Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model interprets symptoms as expressions of unmet needs rather than problematic behaviors, explained through the interaction of background and proximal factors.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions on behavioral and psychological symptoms in dementia.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Randomized controlled trials published up to October 3, 2025, were systematically searched in PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Web of Science. The essential criteria of model-based interventions were defined as (A) recognition of behavior as expression, (B) assessment of background and proximal factors, and (C) individualized approach based on assessment. Only interventions meeting all criteria were included. Studies not in English, not peer-reviewed, pharmacological in nature, or not exclusively targeting people with dementia were excluded. Study quality was assessed using the Revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, and the certainty of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE methodology. Meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects model, with all effect sizes calculated immediately post-intervention and adjusted for baseline differences. Subgroup and meta-regression analysis were performed based on criterion A alignment (explicit vs. implicit), residence type (community vs. facility), and intervention level (individual vs. care system).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>39 studies were included in the systematic review, of which 22 were included in the meta-analysis. Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions showed statistically significant reductions in overall behavioral and psychological symptoms (SMD = −<!--> <!-->0.308, 95% CI: −<!--> <!-->0.589 to −<!--> <!-->0.027). In the analysis of individual symptoms, significant reductions were observed in agitation (SMD = −<!--> <!-->0.391, 95% CI: −<!--> <!-->0.670 to −<!--> <!-->0.111) and depression (SMD = −<!--> <!-->0.431, 95% CI: −<!--> <!-->0.792 to −<!--> <!-->0.071). Subgroup analysis revealed consistent statistically significant effects in interventions explicitly aligned with criterion A and in facility settings, with individual-level and care system-level interventions each showing statistically significant effects on different symptoms. Sensitivity analysis confirmed robust findings.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions alleviated overall behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia, agitation and depressive symptoms. Subgroup analysis provide evidence supporting interventions that explicitly incorporate the model's core concept and facility-based delivery while suggesting the combination of care system capacity building with
大多数痴呆症患者都会出现痴呆症的行为和心理症状。需求驱动的痴呆妥协行为模型将症状解释为未满足需求的表达,而不是问题行为,通过背景和近端因素的相互作用来解释。
{"title":"Effectiveness of Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions on behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia: A systematic review and meta-analysis","authors":"Jun-ah Song,&nbsp;Yoosun Yang,&nbsp;Iktae Kim,&nbsp;Jiyeon Kim,&nbsp;Soyeon Hong,&nbsp;Hongjin Cheon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105337","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105337","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia occur in most people with dementia. The Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model interprets symptoms as expressions of unmet needs rather than problematic behaviors, explained through the interaction of background and proximal factors.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Objective&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions on behavioral and psychological symptoms in dementia.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Randomized controlled trials published up to October 3, 2025, were systematically searched in PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Web of Science. The essential criteria of model-based interventions were defined as (A) recognition of behavior as expression, (B) assessment of background and proximal factors, and (C) individualized approach based on assessment. Only interventions meeting all criteria were included. Studies not in English, not peer-reviewed, pharmacological in nature, or not exclusively targeting people with dementia were excluded. Study quality was assessed using the Revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, and the certainty of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE methodology. Meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects model, with all effect sizes calculated immediately post-intervention and adjusted for baseline differences. Subgroup and meta-regression analysis were performed based on criterion A alignment (explicit vs. implicit), residence type (community vs. facility), and intervention level (individual vs. care system).&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Results&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;39 studies were included in the systematic review, of which 22 were included in the meta-analysis. Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions showed statistically significant reductions in overall behavioral and psychological symptoms (SMD = −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.308, 95% CI: −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.589 to −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.027). In the analysis of individual symptoms, significant reductions were observed in agitation (SMD = −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.391, 95% CI: −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.670 to −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.111) and depression (SMD = −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.431, 95% CI: −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.792 to −&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;0.071). Subgroup analysis revealed consistent statistically significant effects in interventions explicitly aligned with criterion A and in facility settings, with individual-level and care system-level interventions each showing statistically significant effects on different symptoms. Sensitivity analysis confirmed robust findings.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Need-Driven Dementia-Compromised Behavior model-based interventions alleviated overall behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia, agitation and depressive symptoms. Subgroup analysis provide evidence supporting interventions that explicitly incorporate the model's core concept and facility-based delivery while suggesting the combination of care system capacity building with ","PeriodicalId":50299,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Nursing Studies","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105337"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting long-term care demands for dementia in China (2020–2040): A Markov model analysis of urban-rural disparities 中国老年痴呆症长期护理需求预测(2020-2040年):基于城乡差异的马尔可夫模型分析
IF 7.1 1区 医学 Q1 NURSING Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2025.105328
Peijia Zhu , Qifan Yang , Jie Chen , Liangwen Zhang , Ya Fang

Background

Since no cure for dementia has been found, providing accessible long-term care has become a major global public health challenge. The reliance on informal care has become a significant issue in global healthcare systems, especially in regions with limited formal care resources. The impact of dementia care demands at different stages on resource allocation in China remains unclear.

Objective

This study projects dementia care costs and workforce gaps from 2020 to 2040 using a nationwide Markov model to analyze long-term care demands under urban–rural disparities.

Design

A micro-simulation study.

Methods

We developed a Markov model with five health states (healthy, mild, moderate, severe dementia, and death) based on a Chinese aging cohort, using a 1-year cycle. The model integrated multi-source data (Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, United Nations projections, official statistics, and surveys) to project age, gender, and urban–rural specific changes in dementia care demands among the population aged 65 and above. Scenario analyses (low and high standards) were conducted to predict care costs and workforce demands from both formal and informal care perspectives over 20 years.

Results

By 2040, China's dementia population is forecast to reach 29.83 million, with mild dementia accounting for 60.32 % of cases. Informal care will remain dominant, with workforce gaps ranging from 3.37 million (low standard) to 5.78 million (high standard). The burden is heaviest among rural females aged 65–69, but overall, urban areas face higher burdens than rural ones. Cumulative long-term care costs over 20 years are estimated to range from US$387.74 million (low standard, 0.0026 % of 2020 GDP) to US$937.52 million (high standard, 0.0064 % of 2020 GDP), driven primarily by increasing new dementia cases due to population aging.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the urgent need for enhanced informal care support, early screening for mild dementia, and an accessible long-term care system to address growing challenges. The findings provide a foundation for developing a visualization tool to support real-time policy decision-making in dementia care resource planning.
由于没有找到治疗痴呆症的方法,提供可获得的长期护理已成为一项重大的全球公共卫生挑战。对非正规护理的依赖已成为全球卫生保健系统中的一个重大问题,特别是在正规护理资源有限的地区。中国不同阶段痴呆护理需求对资源配置的影响尚不清楚。
{"title":"Forecasting long-term care demands for dementia in China (2020–2040): A Markov model analysis of urban-rural disparities","authors":"Peijia Zhu ,&nbsp;Qifan Yang ,&nbsp;Jie Chen ,&nbsp;Liangwen Zhang ,&nbsp;Ya Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2025.105328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2025.105328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Since no cure for dementia has been found, providing accessible long-term care has become a major global public health challenge. The reliance on informal care has become a significant issue in global healthcare systems, especially in regions with limited formal care resources. The impact of dementia care demands at different stages on resource allocation in China remains unclear.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study projects dementia care costs and workforce gaps from 2020 to 2040 using a nationwide Markov model to analyze long-term care demands under urban–rural disparities.</div></div><div><h3>Design</h3><div>A micro-simulation study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We developed a Markov model with five health states (healthy, mild, moderate, severe dementia, and death) based on a Chinese aging cohort, using a 1-year cycle. The model integrated multi-source data (Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, United Nations projections, official statistics, and surveys) to project age, gender, and urban–rural specific changes in dementia care demands among the population aged 65 and above. Scenario analyses (low and high standards) were conducted to predict care costs and workforce demands from both formal and informal care perspectives over 20 years.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>By 2040, China's dementia population is forecast to reach 29.83 million, with mild dementia accounting for 60.32 % of cases. Informal care will remain dominant, with workforce gaps ranging from 3.37 million (low standard) to 5.78 million (high standard). The burden is heaviest among rural females aged 65–69, but overall, urban areas face higher burdens than rural ones. Cumulative long-term care costs over 20 years are estimated to range from US$387.74 million (low standard, 0.0026 % of 2020 GDP) to US$937.52 million (high standard, 0.0064 % of 2020 GDP), driven primarily by increasing new dementia cases due to population aging.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Our study highlights the urgent need for enhanced informal care support, early screening for mild dementia, and an accessible long-term care system to address growing challenges. The findings provide a foundation for developing a visualization tool to support real-time policy decision-making in dementia care resource planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50299,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Nursing Studies","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 105328"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Nursing Studies
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