{"title":"Preface for the special feature on “Population ecology of COVID‐19: Similarities and differences between epidemiology and ecological population management”","authors":"Hiroyuki Matsuda, Akira Watanabe","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12187","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"63 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140694931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article reviews the essential role of mathematical models in understanding and combatting the pandemic of novel coronaviruses, in particular focusing the advance in the use of mathematical models in disease control in Japan. Highlighting the integral role of mathematical models in public health, the article introduces a model that factors in the heterogeneity of infectious contacts, concentrating on the effectiveness of testing and isolation, alongside a model that involves economic losses. The models exhibit how, given such heterogeneity, milder behavioral restrictions can still achieve suppression, rigorous testing and isolation can effectively curb the spread, and containment measures can mitigate economic losses. These models aid in grasping the complicated dynamics of disease transmission and optimizing interventions. The knowledge of population ecology is also considered effective for public health in statistical analysis, organizing concepts using dynamic mathematical models, which lead to policy proposals and deepen understanding. Evolution theory may help the understanding of virulence subject to change. However, effective prevention necessitates not only models but also the practical implementation of efficacious measures. The cooperation of various disciplines is particularly crucial in achieving a balance between health measures, economic interests, and human rights. Moreover, the article acknowledges the limitations of models and underscores the significance of real‐world execution. Overall, the article advocates for a broader outlook to tackle future pandemics and related challenges, underscoring the importance of ongoing academic cooperation and global governance to effectively address emerging infectious diseases and their far‐reaching implications.
{"title":"Contributions and problems of mathematical models in COVID‐19 prevention in Japan","authors":"Masayuki Kakehashi, Hiroyuki Matsuda","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12185","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews the essential role of mathematical models in understanding and combatting the pandemic of novel coronaviruses, in particular focusing the advance in the use of mathematical models in disease control in Japan. Highlighting the integral role of mathematical models in public health, the article introduces a model that factors in the heterogeneity of infectious contacts, concentrating on the effectiveness of testing and isolation, alongside a model that involves economic losses. The models exhibit how, given such heterogeneity, milder behavioral restrictions can still achieve suppression, rigorous testing and isolation can effectively curb the spread, and containment measures can mitigate economic losses. These models aid in grasping the complicated dynamics of disease transmission and optimizing interventions. The knowledge of population ecology is also considered effective for public health in statistical analysis, organizing concepts using dynamic mathematical models, which lead to policy proposals and deepen understanding. Evolution theory may help the understanding of virulence subject to change. However, effective prevention necessitates not only models but also the practical implementation of efficacious measures. The cooperation of various disciplines is particularly crucial in achieving a balance between health measures, economic interests, and human rights. Moreover, the article acknowledges the limitations of models and underscores the significance of real‐world execution. Overall, the article advocates for a broader outlook to tackle future pandemics and related challenges, underscoring the importance of ongoing academic cooperation and global governance to effectively address emerging infectious diseases and their far‐reaching implications.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"23 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140744002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides a comprehensive study on the similarities and differences between infectious disease control in public health and various population management approaches, including fisheries resource management, wildlife management, and integrated pest management in agriculture. We aim to identify key strategies, and potential synergies that can contribute to the development of population management strategies within these domains. For example, scientists provide options but leave policy making itself to stakeholders, choose monitoring indicators with as little time lag or change thresholds between increasing and decreasing phases to account for time lag, consider economic feasibility, and clarify accountability, which are common to all fields. There are many elements to incorporate methods from other fields while making use of the accumulation gained in each field.
{"title":"A comparative study of population management approaches in infectious disease control, population management of fisheries and wildlife, and integrated pest management in agriculture","authors":"Hiroyuki Matsuda, Akira Watanabe","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12181","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a comprehensive study on the similarities and differences between infectious disease control in public health and various population management approaches, including fisheries resource management, wildlife management, and integrated pest management in agriculture. We aim to identify key strategies, and potential synergies that can contribute to the development of population management strategies within these domains. For example, scientists provide options but leave policy making itself to stakeholders, choose monitoring indicators with as little time lag or change thresholds between increasing and decreasing phases to account for time lag, consider economic feasibility, and clarify accountability, which are common to all fields. There are many elements to incorporate methods from other fields while making use of the accumulation gained in each field.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":" 48","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140219892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marissa A. Dyck, Genelle Uhrig, Stephen Spear, R. Iosif, V. Popescu
The recovery of mammalian species in the US Midwest through natural recolonization constitutes a conservation success story, yet management remains challenging due to many unknowns related to population dynamics and numeric trends. Abundance is a critical parameter for management decisions, and estimating the density and abundance of elusive species, such as terrestrial carnivores, remains challenging despite recent technological advances. In this study, we evaluated density and abundance of a recovering carnivore species, the bobcat (Lynx rufus) in two areas of Ohio using non‐invasive DNA from scat. The target areas in eastern and southern Ohio have been shown to have uneven dynamics and recolonization success and we expected that this would be reflected in differences in density and abundance. We collected 298 bobcat scats between July 2018 and April 2019 on 150 km of repeated transects. Of these, 102 scats were successfully genotyped, and 55 individuals were identified (33 in eastern Ohio and 22 in southern Ohio). Using Spatially Explicit Capture–Recapture models, we estimated 18.9 ± 4.1 and 10.9 ± 2.7 bobcats/100 km2 in eastern and southern Ohio study areas, respectively. Our results support prior telemetry data which indicated that bobcats in eastern Ohio had smaller home‐ranges than bobcats in southern Ohio, and thus could support a higher density of individuals. The higher densities were similar to other eastern US populations and are much higher than other Midwestern recovering populations. Our results provide a snapshot of the population status and can be used to determine sustainable management strategies for Ohio's bobcat population.
{"title":"First density estimates for a recovering bobcat population in Ohio using DNA from scat","authors":"Marissa A. Dyck, Genelle Uhrig, Stephen Spear, R. Iosif, V. Popescu","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12184","url":null,"abstract":"The recovery of mammalian species in the US Midwest through natural recolonization constitutes a conservation success story, yet management remains challenging due to many unknowns related to population dynamics and numeric trends. Abundance is a critical parameter for management decisions, and estimating the density and abundance of elusive species, such as terrestrial carnivores, remains challenging despite recent technological advances. In this study, we evaluated density and abundance of a recovering carnivore species, the bobcat (Lynx rufus) in two areas of Ohio using non‐invasive DNA from scat. The target areas in eastern and southern Ohio have been shown to have uneven dynamics and recolonization success and we expected that this would be reflected in differences in density and abundance. We collected 298 bobcat scats between July 2018 and April 2019 on 150 km of repeated transects. Of these, 102 scats were successfully genotyped, and 55 individuals were identified (33 in eastern Ohio and 22 in southern Ohio). Using Spatially Explicit Capture–Recapture models, we estimated 18.9 ± 4.1 and 10.9 ± 2.7 bobcats/100 km2 in eastern and southern Ohio study areas, respectively. Our results support prior telemetry data which indicated that bobcats in eastern Ohio had smaller home‐ranges than bobcats in southern Ohio, and thus could support a higher density of individuals. The higher densities were similar to other eastern US populations and are much higher than other Midwestern recovering populations. Our results provide a snapshot of the population status and can be used to determine sustainable management strategies for Ohio's bobcat population.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"47 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140259387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the context of initiatives focused on captive breeding and reintroduction of endangered animal species, it is crucial to minimize any bias in reproductive success during the reintroduction phase in order to preserve genetic diversity. One population of Tachysurus ichikawai, a critically endangered bagrid catfish endemic to Japan, faces a threat from the construction of a dam. To address this, a captive breeding program followed by translocation is being implemented. Multiple breeding families are involved in this process; however, if there is a bias in reproductive success among them after release, it will result in a decline in genetic diversity. To ascertain potential biases of reproductive success among released individuals, we attempted to identify the familial lineage of individuals born at the release site. Due to the unavailability of samples from the released individuals themselves, we reconstructed the pedigree of three generations using distant kinship relationships, such as grandparent–grandchild and uncle–aunt–nephew–niece relationships, with data of 2230–5674 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms obtained from whole genome re‐sequence, and three different software. Our findings indicate no bias between lineages in the first year after reintroduction, but a significant bias in the second year, emphasizing the need for continuous management and monitoring of reintroduced populations. This study demonstrates that monitoring kinship after reintroduction can correct lineage bias, which is critical for the prompt restoration of genetic diversity.
{"title":"Detailed kinship estimation for detecting bias among breeding families in a reintroduced population of the endangered bagrid catfish Tachysurus ichikawai","authors":"Hinano Mizuno, Kouji Nakayama, Tetsuya Akita, Yasuyuki Hashiguchi, Tomonori Osugi, Hirohiko Takeshima","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12183","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of initiatives focused on captive breeding and reintroduction of endangered animal species, it is crucial to minimize any bias in reproductive success during the reintroduction phase in order to preserve genetic diversity. One population of Tachysurus ichikawai, a critically endangered bagrid catfish endemic to Japan, faces a threat from the construction of a dam. To address this, a captive breeding program followed by translocation is being implemented. Multiple breeding families are involved in this process; however, if there is a bias in reproductive success among them after release, it will result in a decline in genetic diversity. To ascertain potential biases of reproductive success among released individuals, we attempted to identify the familial lineage of individuals born at the release site. Due to the unavailability of samples from the released individuals themselves, we reconstructed the pedigree of three generations using distant kinship relationships, such as grandparent–grandchild and uncle–aunt–nephew–niece relationships, with data of 2230–5674 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms obtained from whole genome re‐sequence, and three different software. Our findings indicate no bias between lineages in the first year after reintroduction, but a significant bias in the second year, emphasizing the need for continuous management and monitoring of reintroduced populations. This study demonstrates that monitoring kinship after reintroduction can correct lineage bias, which is critical for the prompt restoration of genetic diversity.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"67 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140261291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many ungulate species in Africa range in habitats that vary in type and quality over space and time, but ongoing environmental change is substantially altering their habitats. Identifying key environmental variables that regulate ungulate population densities can guide management actions for effective conservation. We studied the local population density responses of a community of sympatric ungulate species in the Tarangire Ecosystem of northern Tanzania, to a suite of environmental factors that vary over space and time, to quantify population trends, determine the primary environmental correlates of densities, and identify covariation in densities among species. We estimated seasonal densities of five commonly detected species (impala, dik–dik, Grant's gazelle, eland, and waterbuck) based on 7 years of distance‐sampling data from 41 replicate surveys of 237 line transects. We systematically analyzed the effects of spatial, seasonal, and annual environmental covariates on variation in transect species‐specific densities across space and time. Large fluctuations in climatic factors mediated highly synchronous temporal density variation among all species. We documented more spatial than temporal variation in four of the five species, suggesting that spatial heterogeneity may provide some buffer against temporal variation in the environment. Protection of sufficient habitats and water sources should allow ungulates to respond to a temporally changing world by moving across space. Further, among‐species covariation patterns identified two potential ungulate guilds (impala—dik–dik—waterbuck; eland—Grant's gazelle) that should aid in developing efficient and coordinated management actions.
{"title":"Anthropogenic and climatic drivers of population densities in an African savanna ungulate community","authors":"Lukas Bierhoff, M. Bond, A. Ozgul, Derek E. Lee","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12182","url":null,"abstract":"Many ungulate species in Africa range in habitats that vary in type and quality over space and time, but ongoing environmental change is substantially altering their habitats. Identifying key environmental variables that regulate ungulate population densities can guide management actions for effective conservation. We studied the local population density responses of a community of sympatric ungulate species in the Tarangire Ecosystem of northern Tanzania, to a suite of environmental factors that vary over space and time, to quantify population trends, determine the primary environmental correlates of densities, and identify covariation in densities among species. We estimated seasonal densities of five commonly detected species (impala, dik–dik, Grant's gazelle, eland, and waterbuck) based on 7 years of distance‐sampling data from 41 replicate surveys of 237 line transects. We systematically analyzed the effects of spatial, seasonal, and annual environmental covariates on variation in transect species‐specific densities across space and time. Large fluctuations in climatic factors mediated highly synchronous temporal density variation among all species. We documented more spatial than temporal variation in four of the five species, suggesting that spatial heterogeneity may provide some buffer against temporal variation in the environment. Protection of sufficient habitats and water sources should allow ungulates to respond to a temporally changing world by moving across space. Further, among‐species covariation patterns identified two potential ungulate guilds (impala—dik–dik—waterbuck; eland—Grant's gazelle) that should aid in developing efficient and coordinated management actions.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"79 23","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140085111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Insectivorous birds can provide ecological and economic services by decreasing pest populations in agricultural systems, but the magnitude of effect is often debated. We modeled the capacity for birds to suppress pest population growth using a common tropical coffee pest, the coffee berry borer (CBB) (Hypothenemus hampei) as a study system. Previous field experiments show that birds play a role in suppressing CBB infestations through predation, but the degree to which birds can suppress population growth enough to control infestations is unknown since CBB are only vulnerable to predators when gravid females disperse. Using previously published data on CBB life‐stage survivability, we constructed a female‐only, daily time‐step, deterministic Leslie matrix and projected CBB population growth for a single breeding season. Our goal was to assess the plausibility of CBB suppression by birds as a function of avian energy requirements, reported avian densities on coffee farms, prey composition of avian diets, estimated a caloric value of CBB, and the initial starting population size. Our model showed CBB population growth became exponential (λdaily = 1.042) and that at low, but not medium or high population sizes, were birds able to reduce population growth by 50%. In general, birds exert predation pressure on insect populations, but the ability to control infestations is complex, and is likely dependent on the initial CBB population size.
{"title":"A model of coffee berry borer population growth and susceptibility to control by birds","authors":"Kaitlin R. Muccio, Elizabeth E. Crone, J. M. Reed","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12180","url":null,"abstract":"Insectivorous birds can provide ecological and economic services by decreasing pest populations in agricultural systems, but the magnitude of effect is often debated. We modeled the capacity for birds to suppress pest population growth using a common tropical coffee pest, the coffee berry borer (CBB) (Hypothenemus hampei) as a study system. Previous field experiments show that birds play a role in suppressing CBB infestations through predation, but the degree to which birds can suppress population growth enough to control infestations is unknown since CBB are only vulnerable to predators when gravid females disperse. Using previously published data on CBB life‐stage survivability, we constructed a female‐only, daily time‐step, deterministic Leslie matrix and projected CBB population growth for a single breeding season. Our goal was to assess the plausibility of CBB suppression by birds as a function of avian energy requirements, reported avian densities on coffee farms, prey composition of avian diets, estimated a caloric value of CBB, and the initial starting population size. Our model showed CBB population growth became exponential (λdaily = 1.042) and that at low, but not medium or high population sizes, were birds able to reduce population growth by 50%. In general, birds exert predation pressure on insect populations, but the ability to control infestations is complex, and is likely dependent on the initial CBB population size.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"51 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139838556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Insectivorous birds can provide ecological and economic services by decreasing pest populations in agricultural systems, but the magnitude of effect is often debated. We modeled the capacity for birds to suppress pest population growth using a common tropical coffee pest, the coffee berry borer (CBB) (Hypothenemus hampei) as a study system. Previous field experiments show that birds play a role in suppressing CBB infestations through predation, but the degree to which birds can suppress population growth enough to control infestations is unknown since CBB are only vulnerable to predators when gravid females disperse. Using previously published data on CBB life‐stage survivability, we constructed a female‐only, daily time‐step, deterministic Leslie matrix and projected CBB population growth for a single breeding season. Our goal was to assess the plausibility of CBB suppression by birds as a function of avian energy requirements, reported avian densities on coffee farms, prey composition of avian diets, estimated a caloric value of CBB, and the initial starting population size. Our model showed CBB population growth became exponential (λdaily = 1.042) and that at low, but not medium or high population sizes, were birds able to reduce population growth by 50%. In general, birds exert predation pressure on insect populations, but the ability to control infestations is complex, and is likely dependent on the initial CBB population size.
{"title":"A model of coffee berry borer population growth and susceptibility to control by birds","authors":"Kaitlin R. Muccio, Elizabeth E. Crone, J. M. Reed","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12180","url":null,"abstract":"Insectivorous birds can provide ecological and economic services by decreasing pest populations in agricultural systems, but the magnitude of effect is often debated. We modeled the capacity for birds to suppress pest population growth using a common tropical coffee pest, the coffee berry borer (CBB) (Hypothenemus hampei) as a study system. Previous field experiments show that birds play a role in suppressing CBB infestations through predation, but the degree to which birds can suppress population growth enough to control infestations is unknown since CBB are only vulnerable to predators when gravid females disperse. Using previously published data on CBB life‐stage survivability, we constructed a female‐only, daily time‐step, deterministic Leslie matrix and projected CBB population growth for a single breeding season. Our goal was to assess the plausibility of CBB suppression by birds as a function of avian energy requirements, reported avian densities on coffee farms, prey composition of avian diets, estimated a caloric value of CBB, and the initial starting population size. Our model showed CBB population growth became exponential (λdaily = 1.042) and that at low, but not medium or high population sizes, were birds able to reduce population growth by 50%. In general, birds exert predation pressure on insect populations, but the ability to control infestations is complex, and is likely dependent on the initial CBB population size.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"13 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139778682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Between 1925 and 1930, 11 or 12 non‐native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were translocated from Alaska and British Columbia to the foothills of the Olympic Range. By 1970, descendants of these goats had colonized the entire range and concerns about the management of this introduced species developed as damage to alpine soil and vegetation occurred. A series of removals reduced the population from 1175 in 1983 to 389 by 1990, eventually growing to 584 in 2016. We used demographic and genetic data to parameterize a population genetics individual‐based simulation model of the Olympic Range mountain goats. We calibrated the model to replicate the population trajectory for Olympic mountain goats from establishment in the 1920s through the 1983 first census. As expected, modeled population dynamics from 1928 to 1983 mimicked parameter initialization from expanding populations. However, simulated heterozygosity did not align with observations, suggesting a process not accounted for within the simulation model, such as a bottleneck or founder effect. Sensitivity analyses showed changes in annual reproductive rate, juvenile mortality, and adult female mortality influencing population trajectories, but variation in male mortality revealed no changes. Evaluating the population dynamics of the model after removals showed that approximately 80% of the total animals removed during the 1980s needed to be female in order for the observed population estimates to occur. This model has the potential to be used more widely with established or introduced mountain goat populations, as well as to provide an approach for studying other introduced species and their population dynamics.
{"title":"Reconstructing mountain goat history in the Olympic Mountains, USA","authors":"Melissa M. Oscarson, E. Landguth, David O. Wallin","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12179","url":null,"abstract":"Between 1925 and 1930, 11 or 12 non‐native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were translocated from Alaska and British Columbia to the foothills of the Olympic Range. By 1970, descendants of these goats had colonized the entire range and concerns about the management of this introduced species developed as damage to alpine soil and vegetation occurred. A series of removals reduced the population from 1175 in 1983 to 389 by 1990, eventually growing to 584 in 2016. We used demographic and genetic data to parameterize a population genetics individual‐based simulation model of the Olympic Range mountain goats. We calibrated the model to replicate the population trajectory for Olympic mountain goats from establishment in the 1920s through the 1983 first census. As expected, modeled population dynamics from 1928 to 1983 mimicked parameter initialization from expanding populations. However, simulated heterozygosity did not align with observations, suggesting a process not accounted for within the simulation model, such as a bottleneck or founder effect. Sensitivity analyses showed changes in annual reproductive rate, juvenile mortality, and adult female mortality influencing population trajectories, but variation in male mortality revealed no changes. Evaluating the population dynamics of the model after removals showed that approximately 80% of the total animals removed during the 1980s needed to be female in order for the observed population estimates to occur. This model has the potential to be used more widely with established or introduced mountain goat populations, as well as to provide an approach for studying other introduced species and their population dynamics.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"94 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139839785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Between 1925 and 1930, 11 or 12 non‐native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were translocated from Alaska and British Columbia to the foothills of the Olympic Range. By 1970, descendants of these goats had colonized the entire range and concerns about the management of this introduced species developed as damage to alpine soil and vegetation occurred. A series of removals reduced the population from 1175 in 1983 to 389 by 1990, eventually growing to 584 in 2016. We used demographic and genetic data to parameterize a population genetics individual‐based simulation model of the Olympic Range mountain goats. We calibrated the model to replicate the population trajectory for Olympic mountain goats from establishment in the 1920s through the 1983 first census. As expected, modeled population dynamics from 1928 to 1983 mimicked parameter initialization from expanding populations. However, simulated heterozygosity did not align with observations, suggesting a process not accounted for within the simulation model, such as a bottleneck or founder effect. Sensitivity analyses showed changes in annual reproductive rate, juvenile mortality, and adult female mortality influencing population trajectories, but variation in male mortality revealed no changes. Evaluating the population dynamics of the model after removals showed that approximately 80% of the total animals removed during the 1980s needed to be female in order for the observed population estimates to occur. This model has the potential to be used more widely with established or introduced mountain goat populations, as well as to provide an approach for studying other introduced species and their population dynamics.
{"title":"Reconstructing mountain goat history in the Olympic Mountains, USA","authors":"Melissa M. Oscarson, E. Landguth, David O. Wallin","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12179","url":null,"abstract":"Between 1925 and 1930, 11 or 12 non‐native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were translocated from Alaska and British Columbia to the foothills of the Olympic Range. By 1970, descendants of these goats had colonized the entire range and concerns about the management of this introduced species developed as damage to alpine soil and vegetation occurred. A series of removals reduced the population from 1175 in 1983 to 389 by 1990, eventually growing to 584 in 2016. We used demographic and genetic data to parameterize a population genetics individual‐based simulation model of the Olympic Range mountain goats. We calibrated the model to replicate the population trajectory for Olympic mountain goats from establishment in the 1920s through the 1983 first census. As expected, modeled population dynamics from 1928 to 1983 mimicked parameter initialization from expanding populations. However, simulated heterozygosity did not align with observations, suggesting a process not accounted for within the simulation model, such as a bottleneck or founder effect. Sensitivity analyses showed changes in annual reproductive rate, juvenile mortality, and adult female mortality influencing population trajectories, but variation in male mortality revealed no changes. Evaluating the population dynamics of the model after removals showed that approximately 80% of the total animals removed during the 1980s needed to be female in order for the observed population estimates to occur. This model has the potential to be used more widely with established or introduced mountain goat populations, as well as to provide an approach for studying other introduced species and their population dynamics.","PeriodicalId":503432,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":"60 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139779984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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