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On time-horizons based post-processing of flow forecasts 基于时间辉度的流量预测后处理
Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1359750
Paolo Reggiani, Daniela Biondi, E. Todini
Post-processing raw stream flow forecasts are generally understood as estimating the univariate predictive density of stage or discharge values at selected future time steps, which is conditional on a single or multiple streamflow forecasts and observations up to the forecast start time to. The predictive density indicates to a forecaster in the most comprehensive way which flood level is likely to be expected. To this end, a variety of post-processing methods were proposed, which have respective strengths and weaknesses. These methods focus near-exclusively on the probabilistic forecast of the predictand at a single set future time ti, without addressing the predictive capability over the sequence of temporal sub-horizons (to, t1] ⊂ (to, t2] ⊂ … ⊂ (to, tk] nested into the overall forecast horizon. Here, we demonstrate the advantages of time-horizon dependent processing of streamflow forecasts, which evaluates the evolution of the predictive density over the sub-horizons by considering the temporal correlation among forecast ensemble members in addition to their cross-correlation with observations. The resulting probabilistic forecast consists of a multivariate distribution of stages and/or discharges at lagged forecasting times. These multivariate predictive distributions have the advantage of providing the likelihood of exceeding a critical threshold during the forecasting horizon while simultaneously offering valuable insights into the expected time of such exceedance. This approach supports not only decisions on issuing timely flood warnings but also the planing and roll-out of mitigating actions.
对原始流量预报的后处理,一般理解为估计选定未来时间步骤的阶段值或排泄值的单变量预测密度,其条件是单个或多个流量预报和直至预报开始时间的观测值。预测密度以最全面的方式向预报员指出可能会出现的洪水位。为此,提出了多种后处理方法,这些方法各有优缺点。这些方法几乎只关注预测对象在单个设定的未来时间 ti 上的概率预测,而不考虑对时间子域序列(to, t1] 的预测能力。⊂ (to, t2] .⊂......⊂ (to, tk] 嵌套在整个预测范围内。在这里,我们展示了根据时间跨度处理流量预报的优势,即通过考虑预报集合成员之间的时间相关性以及它们与观测数据之间的交叉相关性,评估预报密度在子范围内的演变情况。由此得出的概率预报由滞后预报时间的阶段和/或排水量的多元分布组成。这些多元预测分布的优势在于,在提供预测范围内超过临界阈值的可能性的同时,还能对超过临界阈值的预期时间提供有价值的见解。这种方法不仅支持及时发布洪水预警的决策,还支持减灾行动的规划和推出。
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引用次数: 0
Empowering citizen scientists to improve water quality: from monitoring to action 增强公民科学家改善水质的能力:从监测到行动
Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1367198
Stuart Warner, Sara Blanco Ramírez, Sandra de Vries, Nancy Marangu, Henriette Ateba Bessa, Carla Toranzo, Madina Imaralieva, Tommaso Abrate, Enock Kiminta, José Castro, Marcelo Luiz de Souza, Abdul Ghaffar Memon, Steven Loiselle, Mohamed Sahr E. Juanah
Citizen science (CS) has so far failed to achieve its potential to contribute to water resource management globally despite a significant body of work proclaiming the benefits of such an approach. Also, this work has addressed concerns over precision, accuracy and reliability of methods used. This article presents the findings of a hackathon-type workshop challenge that brought together water quality experts and CS practitioners to explore barriers and possible solutions to mainstream citizen scientist-generated data into national, regional, and global reporting processes, and thereby provide a tangible connection between policy makers and community-based citizen scientists. We present the findings here as a perspective-type summary. This workshop challenge highlighted the breadth and scope of CS activities globally yet recognized that their potential for positive impact is going unrealized. The challenge team proposed that impact could be improved by: developing awareness; applying a simultaneous bottom-up/top-down approach to increase success rates; that local leaders or ‘catalysts' are key to initiate and sustain activities; that generated data need to fulfill a purpose and create required information, and ultimately, lead to actions (data > information > action); recognizing that we are all potential citizen scientists is important; recognizing that “good water quality” is subjective; and lastly that developing a communication gateway that allows bi-directional data and information transfer is essential.
迄今为止,公民科学(CS)仍未能发挥其潜力,为全球水资源管理做出贡献,尽管有大量工作宣称这种方法有诸多益处。此外,这项工作还解决了所使用方法的精确性、准确性和可靠性方面的问题。本文介绍了一个黑客马拉松式研讨会挑战的结果,该研讨会汇集了水质专家和公民科学工作者,共同探讨将公民科学家生成的数据纳入国家、地区和全球报告流程主流的障碍和可能的解决方案,从而在政策制定者和基于社区的公民科学家之间建立切实的联系。我们在此以观点型摘要的形式介绍这些发现。本次研讨会的挑战强调了全球公民科学活动的广度和范围,但同时也认识到,这些活动产生积极影响的潜力尚未实现。挑战团队提出,可以通过以下方式提高影响力:培养意识;同时采用自下而上/自上而下的方法来提高成功率;地方领导或 "催化剂 "是启动和维持活动的关键;生成的数据需要实现目的并创造所需的信息,最终促成行动(数据 > 信息 > 行动);认识到我们都是潜在的公民科学家非常重要;认识到 "良好的水质 "是主观的;最后,开发一个允许数据和信息双向传输的通信网关至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Innovative solutions for global water quality challenges: insights from a collaborative hackathon event 全球水质挑战的创新解决方案:黑客马拉松合作活动的启示
Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1363116
Igor Chernov, Melchior Elsler, Thomas Maillart, Caterina Cacciatori, Simona Tavazzi, B. M. Gawlik, Yuliya Vystavna, Afroditi Anastasaki, Carolyn DuBois, Stuart Warner, M. Neely, W. Muziasari, Kilian Christ, Tommaso Abrate, Anham Salyani, Timothy Sullivan
Addressing the global water quality challenges requires collaborative efforts, multidisciplinary approaches, and innovative solutions. Here we report on the success of a special collective intelligence “hackathon event,” organized by five United Nations agencies and the European Commission, with the aim of reinventing engagement with diverse experts and stakeholders to tackle real-world challenges in water quality monitoring and assessment. Participants from diverse backgrounds and regions convened to devise inventive solutions in four key challenge areas, including (1) transformation of water quality data into water stewardship action, (2) empowering citizen scientists to improve water quality, (3) incorporation of Indigenous communities and their water quality knowledge in global information systems, and (4) routine monitoring of antimicrobial resistance in water. The hackathon approach fosters collective intelligence in a safe, creative and collaborative environment, enabling participants to harness their collective knowledge, expertise and skills. Key outcomes were conceptualizing practical frameworks and tailored toolboxes for diverse water quality innovations to improve monitoring, empower communities, and support policy-making. Emphasis was placed on the purpose and value of interdisciplinary collaborations to address complex global challenges, showcasing synergies between technology, environmental science, and social engagement. Hackathons are catalysts for collaborative innovation which unlock future endeavors in harnessing collective intelligence to safeguard our most precious resource – water.
应对全球水质挑战需要协作努力、多学科方法和创新解决方案。在此,我们报告了由五个联合国机构和欧盟委员会组织的一次特殊的集体智慧 "黑客马拉松 "活动取得的成功,该活动旨在重塑不同专家和利益相关者的参与方式,以应对水质监测和评估方面的现实挑战。来自不同背景和地区的参与者汇聚一堂,在四个关键挑战领域设计出创造性的解决方案,包括:(1) 将水质数据转化为水资源管理行动;(2) 增强公民科学家改善水质的能力;(3) 将土著社区及其水质知识纳入全球信息系统;(4) 对水中的抗菌素耐药性进行常规监测。黑客马拉松方法在安全、创新和协作的环境中培养集体智慧,使参与者能够利用他们的集体知识、专业知识和技能。主要成果是为各种水质创新概念化实用框架和量身定制的工具箱,以改善监测、增强社区能力和支持决策。重点放在跨学科合作的目的和价值上,以应对复杂的全球挑战,展示技术、环境科学和社会参与之间的协同作用。黑客马拉松是协作创新的催化剂,它开启了利用集体智慧保护我们最宝贵的资源--水的未来努力。
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引用次数: 0
Insights gained from two decades of intensive monitoring: hydrology and nitrate export in a tile-drained agricultural catchment 二十年密集监测的启示:瓦片排水农业集水区的水文和硝酸盐输出
Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1369552
Andreas Bauwe, Bernd Lennartz
Nitrate (NO3−) export from agricultural land poses an ongoing threat to both inland and coastal waters. Experimental studies investigating the hydrology-NO3−-export mechanisms require long-term data to identify reliable causal relationships. In this study, utilizing a 23-year continuous dataset with a high temporal resolution (daily to twice a week), we aim to identify potential drivers for NO3-losses and assess the impact of nitrogen (N) soil surface budgets on NO3-export. A drainage plot (4.2 ha) and a ditch catchment (179 ha) were fully equipped to register hydrological parameters, including water sample collection. Mean annual NO3−-N concentrations (loads) for the drainage plot and the ditch catchment were 9.4 mg l−1 (20.6 kg ha−1) and 6.0 mg L−1 (20.9 kg ha−1), respectively. Annual discharge was closely positively correlated with annual NO3-losses, highlighting the significant influence of prevailing weather and, consequently, hydrologic conditions on NO3-export rates. The majority of the annual NO3−-load was exported during winter (56% at the drainage plot, 51% at the ditch catchment), while the rest was exported during spring (28, 29%), summer (9, 9%) and fall (7, 11%). We could not find any direct relationships between N soil surface budgets and NO3-losses. Putting all results together, it can be concluded that agricultural activities for many decades resulted in high soil N stocks, which determined the general high NO3−-N concentration levels. Nevertheless, temporal NO3-export dynamics during the last two decades were clearly driven by hydro-meteorological conditions, nearly independently of land management and N soil surface budgets on the fields.
农田排放的硝酸盐(NO3-)对内陆和沿海水域都构成了持续的威胁。调查水文-NO3-输出机制的实验研究需要长期数据来确定可靠的因果关系。在这项研究中,我们利用 23 年连续数据集和高时间分辨率(每天到每周两次),旨在确定 NO3 损失的潜在驱动因素,并评估氮(N)土壤表面预算对 NO3 排放的影响。一个排水小区(4.2 公顷)和一个沟渠集水区(179 公顷)配备了完整的水文参数登记设备,包括水样采集。排水地块和沟渠集水区的年平均 NO3-N 浓度(负荷)分别为 9.4 毫克/升(20.6 千克/公顷)和 6.0 毫克/升(20.9 千克/公顷)。年排放量与年 NO3 损失量呈密切的正相关关系,这突出表明了当时的天气以及水文条件对 NO3 出口率的重要影响。每年的 NO3 负荷大部分在冬季输出(56% 在排水地块,51% 在沟渠集水区),其余则在春季(28%,29%)、夏季(9%,9%)和秋季(7%,11%)输出。我们没有发现土壤表面氮含量与三氧化二氮流失量之间有任何直接关系。综合所有结果,我们可以得出结论:几十年来的农业活动导致土壤氮储量较高,这也决定了 NO3-N 浓度水平普遍较高。然而,在过去二十年中,氮氧化物的时间输出动态明显受水文气象条件的驱动,几乎与土地管理和田地的氮土壤表层预算无关。
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引用次数: 0
Accounting for water quality—A framework for agricultural water use 水质核算--农业用水框架
Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1375791
Poolad Karimi, Deborah V. Chapman, Svetlana Valieva, Ruyi Li, Amal Talbi
Driven by increasing water demand, scarcity concerns, and climate change impacts, numerous countries prioritize solutions for enhanced water use efficiency. However, these solutions often focus primarily on managing water quantities to improve water productivity in agriculture, urban, and industrial sectors. Effective and sustainable water use, however, requires monitoring and management of both water quantity and quality. Traditionally, water quantity and water quality have been managed separately, often by different government agencies with different missions and limited interaction. Ensuring sufficient water quantity for agriculture and food production often takes precedence over managing water quality. Water accounting, as a tool for allocating and managing water quantity is now widely accepted and numerous examples of successful implementation exist worldwide. However, the concept of incorporating water quality into water accounting has not yet been widely promoted. Measuring both quantity and quality in the same water bodies is a fundamental principle of assessment of impacts on water quality through the determination of loads. The load is the amount of a given substance or pollutant for a given period of time. Using the key steps necessary for the development of a water quality monitoring and assessment programme, a framework has been developed that can be applied to water accounting projects using typical water accounting applications. Two examples of potential applications are used to consider the technical, institutional, and financial requirements. Implementing a framework for incorporating water quality monitoring and assessment into water accounting should contribute substantially to the need for more water quality data at global scale. Such data are required to facilitate achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 6 “Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all” through more efficient water resources management and greater awareness of water quality impacts in the agricultural water use sector.
在水资源需求日益增长、水资源匮乏以及气候变化影响的推动下,许多国家都将提高水资源利用效率作为优先考虑的解决方案。然而,这些解决方案通常主要侧重于管理水量,以提高农业、城市和工业部门的用水生产率。然而,有效和可持续的水资源利用需要对水量和水质进行监测和管理。传统上,水量和水质是分开管理的,通常由不同的政府机构负责,它们承担着不同的使命,互动有限。确保农业和粮食生产所需的充足水量往往优先于水质管理。水量核算作为一种分配和管理水量的工具,目前已被广泛接受,并在世界各地有许多成功实施的例子。然而,将水质纳入水量核算的概念尚未得到广泛推广。测量同一水体的水量和水质是通过确定负荷评估水质影响的基本原则。负荷是指特定时间内特定物质或污染物的数量。利用制定水质监测和评估计划所需的关键步骤,我们制定了一个框架,该框架可通过典型的水核算应用程序应用于水核算项目。通过两个潜在应用实例来考虑技术、机构和财务要求。实施一个将水质监测和评估纳入水核算的框架,应能极大地满足全球范围内对更多 水质数据的需求。需要这些数据来促进可持续发展目标 6 "确保人人享有水和卫生设施并对其进行可持续管理 "的实现,具体做法是提高水资源管理效率,加强农业用水部门对水质影响的认识。
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引用次数: 0
Learning from local knowledge on changes in tree-cover and water availability: the case of the contested agroforested landscape of the Mt. Elgon Water Tower, Uganda 从当地知识中学习关于树木覆盖率变化和水供应的知识:乌干达埃尔贡山水塔有争议的农林景观案例
Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1283574
George Kimbowa, J. Buyinza, J. Gathenya, Catherine Muthuri
Participatory Rural Appraisal was used to compare stakeholder perceptions of spatial and temporal variation in tree cover and water availability using Uganda’s Mt. Elgon Water Tower as a case study. This study was guided by the research question: How do multi-level stakeholders’ perceptions of changes in tree-cover and water availability vary across spatial and temporal scales of the water tower? Five Participatory Rural Appraisal tools were applied to understand multi-level stakeholders’ perspectives on the changes in tree-cover and water availability. Data was collected from farmers’ focus group discussions, key experts from local government offices and structured household interviews with local communities. This study focused on the upper and lower zones of the water tower, which differ in terms of proximity to Mt. Elgon National Forest Park, household water-use, elevation, and tree-cover. Results showed that there are both similarities and differences in perceptions of changes in tree cover and water availability among stakeholders. Farmers and key experts perceived a decrease in water availability and a decrease in overall tree cover for the period 1990–2020. There are differences in stakeholders’ perceptions of water availability across the zones and sub-catchments. For instance, more farmers in Sipi River Sub-catchment perceived a decrease in water availability during 2006–2020 compared to 1990–2005 period. There were notable contradictions in farmers’ and key experts’ perceptions on tree cover. Farmers’ perceptions of 1990–2020 precipitation were in agreement with trends in existing precipitation data. Declining trends of natural tree cover especially outside the Mt. Elgon national forest park pose great threat to water resources originating from forests. Changes in tree cover and water availability in the study area can be partly explained by the tree species grown. Local stakeholders’ perceptions complemented the existing data gaps in explaining the changes in tree cover and water availability. Participatory Rural Appraisal tools are helpful for documenting the perceptions of local communities. However, this cannot replace reliable data resulting from large-scale efforts for monitoring changes and variations in tree-cover and water availability. The findings of this paper can be valuable to inform strategies for community involvement in sustainable agroforested landscape management.
本研究以乌干达埃尔贡山水塔为案例,采用参与式农村评估方法比较利益相关者对树木覆盖率和水供应量的时空变化的看法。本研究以研究问题为指导:在水塔的不同时空范围内,多层次利益相关者对树木覆盖率和可用水量变化的看法有何不同?研究采用了五种参与式农村评估工具,以了解多层次利益相关者对树木覆盖率和可用水量变化的看法。从农民的焦点小组讨论、当地政府办公室的主要专家和当地社区的结构化家庭访谈中收集了数据。这项研究的重点是水塔的上区和下区,这两个区域在靠近埃尔贡山国家森林公园、家庭用水、海拔高度和树木覆盖率方面各不相同。结果显示,利益相关者对树木覆盖率和供水量变化的看法既有相似之处,也有不同之处。农民和主要专家认为,1990-2020 年期间,可用水量减少,总体树木覆盖率下降。不同地区和子流域的利益相关者对可用水量的认识存在差异。例如,与 1990-2005 年期间相比,西皮河子流域更多的农民认为 2006-2020 年期间可用水量减少。农民和主要专家对树木覆盖率的看法存在明显矛盾。农民对 1990-2020 年降水量的看法与现有降水量数据的趋势一致。自然树木覆盖率的下降趋势,尤其是在埃尔贡山国家森林公园外,对源自森林的水资源构成了巨大威胁。研究地区树木覆盖率和可用水量的变化在一定程度上可以用种植的树种来解释。当地利益相关者的看法补充了现有数据的不足,有助于解释树木覆盖率和可用水量的变化。参与式农村评估工具有助于记录当地社区的看法。然而,这并不能取代大规模监测树木覆盖率和可用水量的变化和变化所产生的可靠数据。本文的研究结果对于制定社区参与可持续农林景观管理的战略很有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial: Emerging talents in water science: water and critical zone 2021/22 社论:水科学领域的新秀:水与临界区 2021/22
Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1374081
Pingping Luo, Yubin Zhang, Yixuan Zhang, Kenneth Hurst Williams, Quoc Bao Pham
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引用次数: 0
Fast urban inundation simulation with RIM2D for flood risk assessment and forecasting 利用 RIM2D 快速模拟城市淹没,进行洪水风险评估和预测
Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310182
H. Apel, Jakob Benisch, Björn Helm, S. Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz
Urban pluvial flooding is a growing concern worldwide as consequence of rising urban population and climate change induced increases in heavy rainfall. Easy-to-implement and fast simulation tools are needed to cope with this challenge.This study describes the development of the parsimonious, GPU-accelerated hydraulic model RIM2D for urban pluvial flood simulations. This is achieved by considering the built-up urban area as flow obstacles, and by introducing capacity-based approaches to consider urban drainage by infiltration on pervious surfaces and sewer drainage from roofs and sealed surfaces. The model performance was analyzed by simulating 8 heavy rainfall events in a test area in the city of Dresden, Germany. For these events detailed discharge measurements of sewer discharge are available, providing a unique dataset for evaluating the sewer drainage simulation, which is of high importance for realistic pluvial inundation simulations in urban areas.We show that the model simulates the temporal dynamics of the sewer discharge and the sewer volume within acceptable ranges. Moreover, the erratic variation of the simulated to measured sewer discharge suggests that the deviations from the measurements are caused by the precipitation input rather than the model simplifications. We conclude that RIM2D is a valid tool for urban inundation simulation. Its short simulation runtimes allow probabilistic flood risk assessments and operational flood forecasts.
随着城市人口的增加和气候变化引起的暴雨增多,城市冲积洪水日益受到全世界的关注。本研究介绍了针对城市冲积洪水模拟开发的简易、GPU 加速水力模型 RIM2D。该模型将城市建成区视为水流障碍物,并引入基于容量的方法,以考虑城市透水表面的渗透排水以及屋顶和密封表面的下水道排水。通过模拟德国德累斯顿市测试区的 8 次暴雨事件,对模型性能进行了分析。在这些事件中,我们获得了详细的下水道排水测量数据,为评估下水道排水模拟提供了一个独特的数据集,这对于在城市地区进行逼真的冲积淹没模拟非常重要。此外,模拟下水道排水量与测量下水道排水量之间的不稳定变化表明,与测量结果之间的偏差是由降水输入而非模型简化造成的。我们的结论是,RIM2D 是城市淹没模拟的有效工具。它的模拟运行时间短,可以进行概率洪水风险评估和实际洪水预报。
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引用次数: 0
The contributions of Indigenous People's earth observations to water quality monitoring 土著人民的地球观测对水质监测的贡献
Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1363187
Yolanda López-Maldonado, Janet Anstee, M. Neely, Jérôme Marty, Diana Mastracci, Happyness Ngonyani, Igor Ogashawara, Anham Salyani, Kabindra Sharma, Neil C. Sims
Indigenous Knowledge, observations and understandings of Earth processes are not sufficiently included in global Earth Observations. Drawing on the results obtained during a 3-day hackathon event, we present evidence, best practices and recommendations to water quality organizations seeking to engage and share information with Indigenous communities. The hackathon event revealed three key findings: First, Indigenous Peoples report precise and accurate observations of changes in various Earth systems, particularly the hydrological cycle. Second, this information can significantly enhance global Outreach and Engagement efforts, aiding in the understanding of hydrological cycle components, water quality, mapping water courses, and monitoring and mitigating the effects of climate change (i.e., floods, droughts, etc.). Third, enabling Indigenous Peoples to contribute their scientific knowledge and utilize Earth Observations is crucial for the protection of other vital components of the water cycle. We addressed two crucial questions: What opportunities exist to include Indigenous Knowledge into Earth Observations, and what are the main challenges in doing so?
土著知识、观察和对地球进程的理解并未充分纳入全球地球观测。根据为期 3 天的黑客马拉松活动所取得的成果,我们向寻求与土著社区参与和分享信息的水质组织提供了证据、最佳实践和建议。黑客马拉松活动揭示了三个重要发现:首先,原住民对各种地球系统的变化,尤其是水文循环的变化进行了精确的观察。第二,这些信息可以极大地加强全球外联和参与工作,有助于了解水文循环的组成部分、水质、绘制水道图以及监测和减轻气候变化的影响(如洪水、干旱等)。第三,使土著人民能够贡献自己的科学知识并利用地球观测,对于保护水循环的其他重要组成部分至关重要。我们探讨了两个关键问题:将土著知识纳入地球观测有哪些机会,这样做的主要挑战是什么?
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引用次数: 0
Editorial: Greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial freshwater ecosystems: spatial and temporal hot spots 社论:陆地淡水生态系统的温室气体排放:时空热点
Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1390123
David Piatka, Johannes A. C. Barth, Ralf Kiese
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引用次数: 0
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