C. Carias, J. O'Hagan, M. Gambhir, E. Kahn, D. Swerdlow, M. Meltzer
In 2014/15 an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented dimensions afflicted the West African countries of Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. We performed a systematic review of manuscripts that forecasted the outbreak while it was occurring, and derive implications on the ways results could be interpreted by policy-makers. We reviewed 26 manuscripts, published between 2014 and April 2015, that presented forecasts of the West African Ebola outbreak. Forecasted case counts varied widely. An important determinant of forecast accuracy for case counts was how far into the future predictions were made. Generally, those that made forecasts less than 2 months into the future tended to be more accurate than those that made forecasts more than 10 weeks into the future. The exceptions were parsimonious statistical models in which the decay of the rate of spread of the pathogen among susceptible individuals was dealt with explicitly. Regarding future outbreaks, the most important lessons for policy makers when using similar modeling results are: i) uncertainty of forecasts will be higher in the beginning of the outbreak, ii) when data are limited, forecasts produced by models designed to inform specific decisions should be used in complimentary fashion for robust decision making - for this outbreak, two statistical models produced the most reliable case counts forecasts, but did not allow to understand the impact of interventions, while several compartmental models could estimate the impact of interventions but required data that was not available; iii) timely collection of essential data is necessary for optimal model use.
{"title":"Forecasting the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak.","authors":"C. Carias, J. O'Hagan, M. Gambhir, E. Kahn, D. Swerdlow, M. Meltzer","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxz013","url":null,"abstract":"In 2014/15 an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented dimensions afflicted the West African countries of Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. We performed a systematic review of manuscripts that forecasted the outbreak while it was occurring, and derive implications on the ways results could be interpreted by policy-makers. We reviewed 26 manuscripts, published between 2014 and April 2015, that presented forecasts of the West African Ebola outbreak. Forecasted case counts varied widely. An important determinant of forecast accuracy for case counts was how far into the future predictions were made. Generally, those that made forecasts less than 2 months into the future tended to be more accurate than those that made forecasts more than 10 weeks into the future. The exceptions were parsimonious statistical models in which the decay of the rate of spread of the pathogen among susceptible individuals was dealt with explicitly. Regarding future outbreaks, the most important lessons for policy makers when using similar modeling results are: i) uncertainty of forecasts will be higher in the beginning of the outbreak, ii) when data are limited, forecasts produced by models designed to inform specific decisions should be used in complimentary fashion for robust decision making - for this outbreak, two statistical models produced the most reliable case counts forecasts, but did not allow to understand the impact of interventions, while several compartmental models could estimate the impact of interventions but required data that was not available; iii) timely collection of essential data is necessary for optimal model use.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxz013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60827498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rebecca Grant, Mamunur Rahman Malik, Amgad Elkholy, Maria D Van Kerkhove
The epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) since 2012 has been largely characterized by recurrent zoonotic spillover from dromedary camels followed by limited human-to-human transmission, predominantly in health-care settings. The full extent of infection of MERS-CoV is not clear, nor is the extent and/or role of asymptomatic infections in transmission. We conducted a review of molecular and serological investigations through PubMed and EMBASE from September 2012 to November 15, 2018, to measure subclinical or asymptomatic MERS-CoV infection within and outside of health-care settings. We performed retrospective analysis of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV infections reported to the World Health Organization to November 27, 2018, to summarize what is known about asymptomatic infections identified through national surveillance systems. We identified 23 studies reporting evidence of MERS-CoV infection outside of health-care settings, mainly of camel workers, with seroprevalence ranges of 0%-67% depending on the study location. We identified 20 studies in health-care settings of health-care worker (HCW) and family contacts, of which 11 documented molecular evidence of MERS-CoV infection among asymptomatic contacts. Since 2012, 298 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported as asymptomatic to the World Health Organization, 164 of whom were HCWs. The potential to transmit MERS-CoV to others has been demonstrated in viral-shedding studies of asymptomatic MERS infections. Our results highlight the possibility for onward transmission of MERS-CoV from asymptomatic individuals. Screening of HCW contacts of patients with confirmed MERS-CoV is currently recommended, but systematic screening of non-HCW contacts outside of health-care facilities should be encouraged.
{"title":"A Review of Asymptomatic and Subclinical Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infections.","authors":"Rebecca Grant, Mamunur Rahman Malik, Amgad Elkholy, Maria D Van Kerkhove","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz009","DOIUrl":"10.1093/epirev/mxz009","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) since 2012 has been largely characterized by recurrent zoonotic spillover from dromedary camels followed by limited human-to-human transmission, predominantly in health-care settings. The full extent of infection of MERS-CoV is not clear, nor is the extent and/or role of asymptomatic infections in transmission. We conducted a review of molecular and serological investigations through PubMed and EMBASE from September 2012 to November 15, 2018, to measure subclinical or asymptomatic MERS-CoV infection within and outside of health-care settings. We performed retrospective analysis of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV infections reported to the World Health Organization to November 27, 2018, to summarize what is known about asymptomatic infections identified through national surveillance systems. We identified 23 studies reporting evidence of MERS-CoV infection outside of health-care settings, mainly of camel workers, with seroprevalence ranges of 0%-67% depending on the study location. We identified 20 studies in health-care settings of health-care worker (HCW) and family contacts, of which 11 documented molecular evidence of MERS-CoV infection among asymptomatic contacts. Since 2012, 298 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported as asymptomatic to the World Health Organization, 164 of whom were HCWs. The potential to transmit MERS-CoV to others has been demonstrated in viral-shedding studies of asymptomatic MERS infections. Our results highlight the possibility for onward transmission of MERS-CoV from asymptomatic individuals. Screening of HCW contacts of patients with confirmed MERS-CoV is currently recommended, but systematic screening of non-HCW contacts outside of health-care facilities should be encouraged.</p>","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":"41 1","pages":"69-81"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7108493/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42850256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding geographical and temporal patterns of seasonal influenza can help strengthen influenza surveillance to early detect epidemics and inform influenza prevention and control programs. This study examines variations in spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal influenza in different global regions and explores climatic factors that influence differences in influenza seasonality through a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications. The literature search was conducted to identify original studies published between January 2005 and November 2016. Studies were selected using predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The primary outcome was influenza cases and additional outcomes included seasonal or temporal patterns of influenza seasonality, study regions (temperate or tropical) and associated climatic factors. Of the 2160 records identified in the selection process, 36 eligible studies were included. Results showed significant differences in influenza seasonality in terms of the time of onset, duration, number of peaks and amplitude of epidemics between temperate and tropical/subtropical regions. Different viral types, co-circulation of influenza viruses and climatic factors especially temperature and absolute humidity were found to contribute to the variations in spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal influenza. The findings of this review could inform global surveillance of seasonal influenza and influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination recommendations for different regions.
{"title":"Global Geographical and Temporal Patterns of Seasonal Influenza and Associated Climatic Factors.","authors":"Kunjal Dave, Patricia C Lee","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxz008","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding geographical and temporal patterns of seasonal influenza can help strengthen influenza surveillance to early detect epidemics and inform influenza prevention and control programs. This study examines variations in spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal influenza in different global regions and explores climatic factors that influence differences in influenza seasonality through a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications. The literature search was conducted to identify original studies published between January 2005 and November 2016. Studies were selected using predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The primary outcome was influenza cases and additional outcomes included seasonal or temporal patterns of influenza seasonality, study regions (temperate or tropical) and associated climatic factors. Of the 2160 records identified in the selection process, 36 eligible studies were included. Results showed significant differences in influenza seasonality in terms of the time of onset, duration, number of peaks and amplitude of epidemics between temperate and tropical/subtropical regions. Different viral types, co-circulation of influenza viruses and climatic factors especially temperature and absolute humidity were found to contribute to the variations in spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal influenza. The findings of this review could inform global surveillance of seasonal influenza and influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination recommendations for different regions.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxz008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41523046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nutrition and diet have been suggested to induce or inhibit the risk of several neurodegenerative diseases and cognitive performance. This systematic review was developed to derive the relationship between inflammatory capacity of a diet and the risk of incidence of neurodegenerative diseases. Databases including PubMed, Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, and Scopus, as well as Google site were searched for any year until June 2018. Original, full text, and English language articles with human participants which investigated the link between dietary inflammatory potential and the risk of development of neurodegenerative diseases were included. Duplicated and irrelevant studies were removed and data were drawn out by critical analyzing of the articles. Initially, 457 articles were collected by the searching method, of which 196 studies remained after removing of duplicates. Fourteen articles were screened and known relevant to scope of the study. After critical analyzing, 10 articles were included in the final review. All the studies, except one reported that higher dietary inflammatory index (DII) was related to higher risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases symptoms including memory and cognition decline and Multiple Sclerosis. Of three studies, two indicated that DII positively correlated with circulating inflammatory markers. Low literacy, unhealthy life style, individuals' nutritional status were the factors that involved in intake of a diet with inflammatory potential. The findings enhance confidence that DII is an appropriate tool measure of dietary inflammatory potential and validate the role of diets with inflammatory potential in the pathophysiology of neurodegenerative diseases. DII may possibly be correlated with circulating inflammatory markers.
{"title":"Dietary Inflammatory Potential and the Risk of Neurodegenerative Diseases in Adults.","authors":"S. Kheirouri, M. Alizadeh","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxz005","url":null,"abstract":"Nutrition and diet have been suggested to induce or inhibit the risk of several neurodegenerative diseases and cognitive performance. This systematic review was developed to derive the relationship between inflammatory capacity of a diet and the risk of incidence of neurodegenerative diseases. Databases including PubMed, Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, and Scopus, as well as Google site were searched for any year until June 2018. Original, full text, and English language articles with human participants which investigated the link between dietary inflammatory potential and the risk of development of neurodegenerative diseases were included. Duplicated and irrelevant studies were removed and data were drawn out by critical analyzing of the articles. Initially, 457 articles were collected by the searching method, of which 196 studies remained after removing of duplicates. Fourteen articles were screened and known relevant to scope of the study. After critical analyzing, 10 articles were included in the final review. All the studies, except one reported that higher dietary inflammatory index (DII) was related to higher risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases symptoms including memory and cognition decline and Multiple Sclerosis. Of three studies, two indicated that DII positively correlated with circulating inflammatory markers. Low literacy, unhealthy life style, individuals' nutritional status were the factors that involved in intake of a diet with inflammatory potential. The findings enhance confidence that DII is an appropriate tool measure of dietary inflammatory potential and validate the role of diets with inflammatory potential in the pathophysiology of neurodegenerative diseases. DII may possibly be correlated with circulating inflammatory markers.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxz005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46053183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
William Chi Wai Wong, Stephanie Tsz Hei Lau, Edmond Pui Hang Choi, J. Tucker, C. Fairley, J. Saunders
Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection, causing significant morbidity and economic burden. Strategies like national screening programs or hometesting kits were introduced in some developed countries, yet their effectiveness remains controversial. This systematic review examined reviews of chlamydia screening interventions to assess their effectiveness and the elements that contribute to their success to guide public policy and future research. The review assessed English material published after year 2000 in PubMed, Cochrane Library, the British Nursing Index, Medical Database, and Sociological Abstract, in addition to World Health Organization Global Health Sector Strategies, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control guidelines, and PROSPERO. Systematic reviews that focused on chlamydia screening interventions were included. Using the socio-ecological model, we examined the levels of interventions that may affect the uptake of chlamydia screening. 19 systematic reviews were included. Self-collection in home-testing kits significantly increased screening among females 14-50 years of age. At the organizational level, using electronic health records and not creating additional costs facilitated testing. At the community level, outreach interventions in community/parent centers and homeless shelters reached high screening rates. At the policy level, interventions with educational and advisory elements could result in significant improvements in screening rates.
{"title":"A Systematic Literature Review of Reviews on the Effectiveness of Chlamydia Screening.","authors":"William Chi Wai Wong, Stephanie Tsz Hei Lau, Edmond Pui Hang Choi, J. Tucker, C. Fairley, J. Saunders","doi":"10.1093/EPIREV/MXZ007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/EPIREV/MXZ007","url":null,"abstract":"Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection, causing significant morbidity and economic burden. Strategies like national screening programs or hometesting kits were introduced in some developed countries, yet their effectiveness remains controversial. This systematic review examined reviews of chlamydia screening interventions to assess their effectiveness and the elements that contribute to their success to guide public policy and future research. The review assessed English material published after year 2000 in PubMed, Cochrane Library, the British Nursing Index, Medical Database, and Sociological Abstract, in addition to World Health Organization Global Health Sector Strategies, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control guidelines, and PROSPERO. Systematic reviews that focused on chlamydia screening interventions were included. Using the socio-ecological model, we examined the levels of interventions that may affect the uptake of chlamydia screening. 19 systematic reviews were included. Self-collection in home-testing kits significantly increased screening among females 14-50 years of age. At the organizational level, using electronic health records and not creating additional costs facilitated testing. At the community level, outreach interventions in community/parent centers and homeless shelters reached high screening rates. At the policy level, interventions with educational and advisory elements could result in significant improvements in screening rates.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/EPIREV/MXZ007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43456011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many available vaccines have demonstrated post-exposure effectiveness, but no published systematic reviews have synthesized these findings. We searched the PubMed database for clinical trials and observational human studies concerning the post-exposure vaccination effects, targeting infections with Food and Drug Administration licensed vaccine plus dengue, hepatitis E, malaria, and tick borne encephalitis, which have licensed vaccines outside of the U.S. Studies concerning animal models, serologic testing, and pipeline vaccines were excluded. Eligible studies were evaluated by definition of exposure, and their attempt at distinguishing pre- and post-exposure effects was rated on a scale of 1-4. We screened 4518 articles and ultimately identified 14 clinical trials and 31 observational studies for this review, amounting to 45 eligible articles spanning 7 of the 28 vaccine-preventable diseases. For secondary attack rate, this body of evidence found the following medians for post-exposure vaccination effectiveness: hepatitis A: 85% (IQR: 28; 5 sources), hepatitis B: 85% (IQR: 22; 5 sources), measles: 83% (IQR: 21; 8 sources), varicella: 67% (IQR: 48; 9 sources), smallpox: 45% (IQR: 39; 4 sources), and mumps: 38% (IQR: 7; 2 sources). For case fatality proportions resulting from rabies and smallpox, the vaccine efficacies had medians of 100% (IQR: 0; 6 sources) and 63% (IQR: 50; 8 sources) postexposure. Although mainly used for preventive measures, many available vaccines can modify or preclude disease if administered after exposure. This post-exposure effectiveness could be important to consider during vaccine trials and while developing new vaccines.
{"title":"Post-Exposure Effects of Vaccines on Infectious Diseases.","authors":"Tara Gallagher, M. Lipsitch","doi":"10.1101/19001396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/19001396","url":null,"abstract":"Many available vaccines have demonstrated post-exposure effectiveness, but no published systematic reviews have synthesized these findings. We searched the PubMed database for clinical trials and observational human studies concerning the post-exposure vaccination effects, targeting infections with Food and Drug Administration licensed vaccine plus dengue, hepatitis E, malaria, and tick borne encephalitis, which have licensed vaccines outside of the U.S. Studies concerning animal models, serologic testing, and pipeline vaccines were excluded. Eligible studies were evaluated by definition of exposure, and their attempt at distinguishing pre- and post-exposure effects was rated on a scale of 1-4. We screened 4518 articles and ultimately identified 14 clinical trials and 31 observational studies for this review, amounting to 45 eligible articles spanning 7 of the 28 vaccine-preventable diseases. For secondary attack rate, this body of evidence found the following medians for post-exposure vaccination effectiveness: hepatitis A: 85% (IQR: 28; 5 sources), hepatitis B: 85% (IQR: 22; 5 sources), measles: 83% (IQR: 21; 8 sources), varicella: 67% (IQR: 48; 9 sources), smallpox: 45% (IQR: 39; 4 sources), and mumps: 38% (IQR: 7; 2 sources). For case fatality proportions resulting from rabies and smallpox, the vaccine efficacies had medians of 100% (IQR: 0; 6 sources) and 63% (IQR: 50; 8 sources) postexposure. Although mainly used for preventive measures, many available vaccines can modify or preclude disease if administered after exposure. This post-exposure effectiveness could be important to consider during vaccine trials and while developing new vaccines.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44370171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
California has seen a surge in coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever), a disease spread by the Coccidioides Immitis fungus found in soil throughout the state, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. In this paper, we reviewed epidemiologic studies examining outbreak and sporadic cases of coccidioidomycosis and considered their possible relationship to environmental conditions, particularly the state's growing aridity, drought and wildfire conditions. Most of the studies we reviewed pertained to cases occupationally-acquired in construction, military, archeological and correctional institutional settings where workers faced exposure to dust in Coccidioides Immitis-endemic areas. A few reviewed outbreaks in the general population related to dust exposure from natural disasters, including an earthquake-associated landslide and a dust storm that carried particles long distances from endemic areas. Although many of California's coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have been occupationally-related, changing demographics and new, immunologically-naive populations in dry, endemic areas could expose the general population to Coccidioides Immitis spores. Given the high rate of infection among largely healthy workers, the general population, comprised of some elderly and immunocompromised individuals, could face additional risk. With climate-related events like drought and wildfires also increasing in endemic areas, future research is needed to address the possible associations between these phenomena and coccidioidomycosis outbreaks.
{"title":"A Review of Coccidioidomycosis in California: Exploring the Intersection of Land-use, Population Movement, and Climate Change.","authors":"Dharshani L. Pearson, Keita Ebisu, X. Wu, R. Basu","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxz004","url":null,"abstract":"California has seen a surge in coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever), a disease spread by the Coccidioides Immitis fungus found in soil throughout the state, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. In this paper, we reviewed epidemiologic studies examining outbreak and sporadic cases of coccidioidomycosis and considered their possible relationship to environmental conditions, particularly the state's growing aridity, drought and wildfire conditions. Most of the studies we reviewed pertained to cases occupationally-acquired in construction, military, archeological and correctional institutional settings where workers faced exposure to dust in Coccidioides Immitis-endemic areas. A few reviewed outbreaks in the general population related to dust exposure from natural disasters, including an earthquake-associated landslide and a dust storm that carried particles long distances from endemic areas. Although many of California's coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have been occupationally-related, changing demographics and new, immunologically-naive populations in dry, endemic areas could expose the general population to Coccidioides Immitis spores. Given the high rate of infection among largely healthy workers, the general population, comprised of some elderly and immunocompromised individuals, could face additional risk. With climate-related events like drought and wildfires also increasing in endemic areas, future research is needed to address the possible associations between these phenomena and coccidioidomycosis outbreaks.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxz004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49635585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fujiao Duan, Chunhua Song, Jintao Zhang, Peng Wang, H. Ye, L. Dai, Jianying Zhang, Kaijuan Wang
Eradication of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) colonization has been reported to affect the progression of gastric cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed from 1997 to 2017 through the electronic database. All randomized controlled trials (RCT) and non-randomized controlled trials (non-RCT) evaluated the effect of H. pylori eradication on development of gastric cancer. Four RCTs and nine non-RCTs were included, with a total of 40,740 participants (321,269 person-years). Overall, H. pylori eradication therapy was associated with a significantly reduced the risk of gastric cancer (Incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.65). Results of mixed-effect Poisson regression meta-analysis were similar with traditional meta-analyses. In stratified analyses, the IRRs were 0.59 (95% CI: 0.41, 0.86) in RCTs and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.64) in non-RCTs. The IRRs were 0.45 (95% CI: 0.34, 0.61) in patients and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.44, 0.90) in population. Moreover, the relative risk reduction was approximately 77% on the development of non-cardiac gastric cancer for H. pylori eradication therapy in China. Attributable risk percentage and population attributable risk percentage for Chinese patients were 77.08% and 75.33% and Japanese patients were 57.80% and 45.99%. In conclusion, H. pylori eradication therapy reduces the risk of developing non-cardiac gastric cancer, the findings indicate the importance of early intervention of H. pylori eradication therapy from the perspective of epidemiology.
{"title":"Evaluation of the epidemiological efficacy of eradicating Helicobacter pylori on development of gastric cancer.","authors":"Fujiao Duan, Chunhua Song, Jintao Zhang, Peng Wang, H. Ye, L. Dai, Jianying Zhang, Kaijuan Wang","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxz006","url":null,"abstract":"Eradication of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) colonization has been reported to affect the progression of gastric cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed from 1997 to 2017 through the electronic database. All randomized controlled trials (RCT) and non-randomized controlled trials (non-RCT) evaluated the effect of H. pylori eradication on development of gastric cancer. Four RCTs and nine non-RCTs were included, with a total of 40,740 participants (321,269 person-years). Overall, H. pylori eradication therapy was associated with a significantly reduced the risk of gastric cancer (Incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.65). Results of mixed-effect Poisson regression meta-analysis were similar with traditional meta-analyses. In stratified analyses, the IRRs were 0.59 (95% CI: 0.41, 0.86) in RCTs and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.64) in non-RCTs. The IRRs were 0.45 (95% CI: 0.34, 0.61) in patients and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.44, 0.90) in population. Moreover, the relative risk reduction was approximately 77% on the development of non-cardiac gastric cancer for H. pylori eradication therapy in China. Attributable risk percentage and population attributable risk percentage for Chinese patients were 77.08% and 75.33% and Japanese patients were 57.80% and 45.99%. In conclusion, H. pylori eradication therapy reduces the risk of developing non-cardiac gastric cancer, the findings indicate the importance of early intervention of H. pylori eradication therapy from the perspective of epidemiology.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxz006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46129268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Among the most urgent and serious antibiotic resistant threats to public health, seven are bacteria predominately acquired during health care delivery. There is an emerging field of healthcare epidemiology focused on preventing healthcare-associated infections with antibiotic resistant bacteria incorporating data from patient transfers or patient movements both within and between facilities; this analytic field is being used to help public health professionals identify best opportunities for prevention. Different analytic approaches drawing on uses of big data is being explored to help target the use of limited public health resources, leverage expertise, and enact effective policy to maximize an impact on a population-level health. This paper will summarize recent advances in data driven responses to preventing spread of antibiotic resistance across healthcare settings: leveraging big data for machine learning, integration or advances in tracking patient movement, and highlighting the value of coordinating response across institutions within a region.
{"title":"Advances in Data Driven Responses to Preventing Spread of Antibiotic Resistance across Healthcare Settings.","authors":"S. Fridkin","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxz010","url":null,"abstract":"Among the most urgent and serious antibiotic resistant threats to public health, seven are bacteria predominately acquired during health care delivery. There is an emerging field of healthcare epidemiology focused on preventing healthcare-associated infections with antibiotic resistant bacteria incorporating data from patient transfers or patient movements both within and between facilities; this analytic field is being used to help public health professionals identify best opportunities for prevention. Different analytic approaches drawing on uses of big data is being explored to help target the use of limited public health resources, leverage expertise, and enact effective policy to maximize an impact on a population-level health. This paper will summarize recent advances in data driven responses to preventing spread of antibiotic resistance across healthcare settings: leveraging big data for machine learning, integration or advances in tracking patient movement, and highlighting the value of coordinating response across institutions within a region.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxz010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48741016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The emergence of disease threats can take many forms, from the adaptation of a traditionally zoonotic pathogen for efficient spread in humans, to the development of antibiotic resistance in well-known pathogens, to the creation of new niches for established disease through social and societal changes. In this commentary, the authors explore these various facets of disease emergence through the lens of the papers included in this issue of Epidemiologic Reviews. The authors explore multiple aspects of emergence, and the ways in which emergent pathogens can be controlled with the limited tools available. In doing so they put the papers in this issue in the context of the broader research agenda around understanding and combatting emergent pathogens.
{"title":"The Many Faces of Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Disease.","authors":"J. Lessler, W. Orenstein","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxz011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxz011","url":null,"abstract":"The emergence of disease threats can take many forms, from the adaptation of a traditionally zoonotic pathogen for efficient spread in humans, to the development of antibiotic resistance in well-known pathogens, to the creation of new niches for established disease through social and societal changes. In this commentary, the authors explore these various facets of disease emergence through the lens of the papers included in this issue of Epidemiologic Reviews. The authors explore multiple aspects of emergence, and the ways in which emergent pathogens can be controlled with the limited tools available. In doing so they put the papers in this issue in the context of the broader research agenda around understanding and combatting emergent pathogens.","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2019-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxz011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47360726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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