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What factors influence individuals' willingness to pay for environmental protection: Evidence from CGSS2021 哪些因素影响个人的环保付费意愿?来自 CGSS2021 的证据
Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6dbe
Zhaoyang Li, Yisong Li
As global environmental issues become increasingly severe, research into individuals' willingness to pay for environmental protection has gained prominence. This study aims to comprehensively explore the factors influencing individual willingness to pay for environmental protection in China. Utilizing the CGSS2021 data as a sample and employing hierarchical regression methods, we analyzed a large-scale, diverse dataset to examine factors affecting individual willingness to pay for environmental protection. The study reveals that income, environmental concern, knowledge, actions, public evaluation of government environmental efforts, and reliance on government environmental measures are significant factors influencing individual willingness to pay for environmental conservation. Additionally, the study conducted robustness checks on the model, verifying the stability and reliability of the results. This study not only provides a new perspective for academic research on environmental payment willingness but also offers more practical guidance for the formulation and implementation of environmental protection policies.
随着全球环境问题日益严峻,有关个人环保支付意愿的研究日益突出。本研究旨在全面探讨中国个人环保支付意愿的影响因素。我们以 CGSS2021 数据为样本,采用层次回归方法,对大规模、多样化的数据集进行分析,研究影响个人环保支付意愿的因素。研究发现,收入、环境关注、知识、行动、公众对政府环保工作的评价以及对政府环保措施的依赖是影响个人环保支付意愿的重要因素。此外,研究还对模型进行了稳健性检验,验证了结果的稳定性和可靠性。该研究不仅为环境支付意愿的学术研究提供了新的视角,也为环境保护政策的制定和实施提供了更多的实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking bioremediation potential: harnessing an indigenous bacterial consortium from effluent treatment plants for industrial wastewater treatment 释放生物修复潜力:利用污水处理厂的本地细菌群处理工业废水
Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6dbd
Ashita Rai, V. Yadav, Daoud Ali, M. Fulekar
Common Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP) wastewater poses significant environmental and health risks, necessitating advanced treatment technologies to meet discharge standards. This study focuses on the collection and characterisation of wastewater from CETP Vatva, Ahmedabad, to evaluate physicochemical parameters heavy metal concentrations, and identify indigenous bacterial species. Using Taguchi's systematic orthogonal array, an effective indigenous bacterial consortium (EIBC) was created for bioreactor-based CETP wastewater treatment. The 16S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of various bacterial strains, including the newly reclassified bacteria Stutzerimonas stutzeri. The analysis of the SI sample indicated substantial reductions in the concentrations of total dissolved solids (1090 mg/L), biological oxygen demand (28 mg/L), chemical oxygen demand (180 mg/L), and total phosphorus (1.4 mg/L) compared to their initial values of 7504 mg/L, 296 mg/L, 588 mg/L, and 3.04 mg/L, respectively, with a similar trend observed in samples SII and SIII. While turbidity was significantly reduced from initial concentrations ranging between 36-42 NTU to 4 NTU in SI, 5 NTU in SII, and 3 NTU in SIII samples, resulting in clear water, odour remained a persistent concern throughout the study. Heavy metal concentrations were within permissible discharge limits, with notable removal rates for Cu, Fe, and Cd. The study concludes that integrating systematic design modelling with bioreactor-based remediation effectively mitigates water pollution and safeguards human well-being.
共用污水处理厂 (CETP) 的废水对环境和健康构成重大风险,需要采用先进的处理技术才能达到排放标准。本研究侧重于收集和表征艾哈迈达巴德 Vatva 污水处理厂的废水,以评估理化参数重金属浓度,并确定本地细菌种类。利用田口系统正交阵列,为基于生物反应器的 CETP 废水处理创建了有效的本地细菌联合体 (EIBC)。16S rDNA 分析显示存在多种细菌菌株,包括新近重新分类的 Stutzerimonas stutzeri 细菌。对 SI 样品的分析表明,溶解性总固体(1090 毫克/升)、生物需氧量(28 毫克/升)、化学需氧量(180 毫克/升)和总磷(1.4 毫克/升)的浓度与初始值(分别为 7504 毫克/升、296 毫克/升、588 毫克/升和 3.04 毫克/升)相比大幅降低,在 SII 和 SIII 样品中也观察到类似的趋势。虽然浊度从最初的 36-42 NTU 降至 SI 样本的 4 NTU、SII 样本的 5 NTU 和 SIII 样本的 3 NTU,水质变得清澈,但在整个研究过程中,异味仍然是一个持续存在的问题。重金属浓度在允许排放限值范围内,铜、铁和镉的去除率显著提高。研究得出结论,将系统设计模型与基于生物反应器的修复技术相结合,可有效减轻水污染,保障人类福祉。
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引用次数: 0
Perceived indoor environment and exacerbations of COPD and asthma – a cohort study between 2000-2018 感知的室内环境与慢性阻塞性肺病和哮喘的恶化--2000-2018 年间的一项队列研究
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d3c
Stine Kloster, Jørgen Vestbo, Michael Davidsen, Anne Illemann Christensen, Niss Skov Nielsen, Lars Gunnarsen, Annette Kjær Ersbøll
Background: Ambient air pollution has been associated with exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma; however, little is known about indoor environmental factors. Our aim was to study the association between perceived indoor environment and the long-term risk of exacerbations of COPD or asthma. Methods: We followed 2,317 individuals aged ≥16 years with COPD or asthma from the Danish Health and Morbidity Survey from 2000 to 2018. Individuals developing COPD or asthma during the study period were included at the time of incident diagnosis. Individuals were grouped according to their patterns of perceived indoor environment and followed up for exacerbations defined based on information from the Danish National Health Registers. The association between perceived indoor environment and exacerbations was examined using a generalized mixed model with the Poisson distribution of the number of exacerbations and logarithmic transformation of follow-up time as offset. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, education, household income, smoking, calendar year, construction year, urbanization, home ownership, and resident density. Results: A total of 5,352 exacerbations were recorded in 2,317 individuals during a median of 13.9 years (interquartile range, 7.9-18.2 years). The adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of exacerbations were 1.40 (95% CI 0.85-2.29 and 0.82 (95% CI 0.49-1.38) among individuals with medium and high levels om annoyances, respectively. For annoyances related to temperature and traffic the IRR was 0.88 (95% CI 0.61-1.27) and 1.39 (95% CI 0.88-2.19), respectively. Conclusion: We found no association between indoor environment assessed as annoyances at a single time-point and exacerbations of COPD and asthma.
背景:环境空气污染与慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)和哮喘的恶化有关;然而,人们对室内环境因素知之甚少。我们的目的是研究感知的室内环境与慢性阻塞性肺病或哮喘恶化的长期风险之间的关系。研究方法我们对 2000 年至 2018 年期间丹麦健康和发病率调查中 2317 名年龄≥16 岁的慢性阻塞性肺病或哮喘患者进行了跟踪调查。在研究期间罹患慢性阻塞性肺病或哮喘的患者在事件诊断时被纳入研究范围。研究人员根据患者对室内环境的感知模式对其进行分组,并根据丹麦国家健康登记册的信息对患者的病情加重情况进行随访。研究采用了一个广义混合模型,以恶化次数的泊松分布和随访时间的对数变换作为偏移量,来检验感知的室内环境与病情恶化之间的关系。分析时对年龄、性别、教育程度、家庭收入、吸烟、日历年、建筑年、城市化程度、住房所有权和居民密度进行了调整。结果在中位数为 13.9 年(四分位数间距为 7.9-18.2 年)的时间里,2317 人共记录了 5352 次病情恶化。中度和高度恼怒者的调整后病情恶化发生率比(IRR)分别为 1.40(95% CI 0.85-2.29 )和 0.82(95% CI 0.49-1.38)。与温度和交通有关的恼怒的 IRR 分别为 0.88(95% CI 0.61-1.27)和 1.39(95% CI 0.88-2.19)。结论我们发现,在单个时间点以烦扰度评估的室内环境与慢性阻塞性肺病和哮喘的恶化之间没有关联。
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引用次数: 0
A pioneering approach to measure increased resilience to face climate change: insights from the Race to Resilience Campaign 衡量应对气候变化的复原力提高情况的开创性方法:"争分夺秒提高复原力运动 "的启示
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d37
Marco Billi, Roxana Bórquez, Juan Carlos Varela, Paulina Aldunce, Nicolle Aspee, Emilie Beauchamp, Priscilla Berríos, Marcela Cuevas, A. Loboguerrero, Francis Mason, Anand Patwardhan, Maisa Rojas
This paper illustrates a methodology to measure the impact of resilience-building actions on the increased resilience of people and natural systems to face climate change, developed and field-tested around the Race to Resilience Campaign. Despite increasing acknowledgment of the need for robust methodologies and indicators to monitor and evaluate efforts across adaptation planning and implementation, and provide credibility, accountability and transparency to such actions, there is still a lack of sufficiently standardized and agreed upon metrics able to capture the effect of resilience-building actions. The proposal illustrated in this manuscript offers a pioneering approach for high-level tracking, monitoring and evaluation of resilience-building efforts of non-state actors, based on two complementing sets of metrics: depth metrics measure the degree to which an action is generating a change to fundamental conditions which can demonstrably be related to increasing resilience; while magnitude metrics offer a quantification of the beneficiaries that are affected by these changes. Underlying both stand the Resilience Attributes: properties which can be soundly associated with triggering resilience across different systems, and which can then be used to assess increased resilience ‘by proxy’: that is, by seeing how an action sets forth changes in properties commonly associated with resilience. These Attributes were identified based on updated scientific literature and co-construction exercises with global experts. The integration of Depth and Magnitude indices, adjusted by a Confidence Index evaluating data reliability, allows to estimate the overall contribution of a set of actions on increasing resilience against climate challenges. Based on the above, a possible Monitoring & Evaluation cycle is proposed, and an illustration is offered on two case studies from the Race to Resilience campaign. Key strengths, lessons learned and insights are summarized to stimulate the global discussion, in the context of the Global Stocktake and Global Goal on Adaptation.
本文阐述了一种方法,用于衡量抗御力建设行动对提高人类和自然系统应对气候变化的抗御力的影响,该方法是围绕 "抗御力竞赛运动 "开发并经过实地测试的。尽管越来越多的人认识到需要强有力的方法和指标来监测和评估适应规划和实施工作,并为这些行动提供可信度、问责制和透明度,但目前仍缺乏充分标准化和一致认可的衡量标准来反映抗灾能力建设行动的效果。本手稿中的建议提供了一种开创性的方法,以两套互补的指标为基础,对非国家行为者的复原力建设工作进行高层次的跟踪、监测和评估:深度指标衡量的是一项行动在多大程度上改变了基本条件,而这些基本条件显然与提高复原力有关;而广度指标则量化了受这些变化影响的受益者。两者的基础都是 "复原力属性":这些属性与触发不同系统的复原力密切相关,可用于 "代理 "评估复原力的提高:即通过观察一项行动如何引发与复原力通常相关的属性的变化。这些属性是根据最新的科学文献以及与全球专家的共建活动确定的。深度指数和幅度指数经评估数据可靠性的置信度指数调整后进行整合,可估算出一系列行动对提高应对气候挑战的复原力的总体贡献。在此基础上,提出了一个可行的监测与评估周期,并以 "抗灾能力竞赛 "活动的两个案例研究为例作了说明。在全球评估和全球适应目标的背景下,总结了主要优势、经验教训和见解,以激发全球讨论。
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引用次数: 0
A systematic review of studies investigating the link between greenspaces and human health reveals a paucity of interest in the topic in Africa 对调查绿地与人类健康之间联系的研究进行系统审查后发现,非洲对这一主题的兴趣不大
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d3a
B. Phogole, KY Yessoufou
Whilst the human population is declining in some parts of the world, the African population is growing tremendously despite recurrent epidemics and global pandemics. Since African population density is higher where plant diversity is high and 80% of the African population relies on herbal medicine, the resilience of the African population in the context of disease outbreaks may be linked to a strong tie of Africans with nature. However, is the potential effect of such a tie well established in the scientific discourse? To investigate this question, we followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We found that very few studies tested the relationships between greenspaces and human health conditions on the continent. Out of the 54 African countries, studies that investigate the link between greenspaces and health are from only six countries and the earliest study was published only in 2013, indicating the recency of research on this subject in Africa. These few studies, not only report mixed findings but are also heterogeneous in terms of their design (longitudinal vs. cross-sectional), the choice of predictors and health outcomes as well as how these variables are measured. This review showed that there is a paucity of studies on the greenspace and human health nexus on the continent, making it difficult i) to establish or generalise the relationships between greenspaces and human health conditions in Africa, and ii) to investigate the mechanisms driving the effects of nature on human wellbeing in Africa. To fuel interests and guide future research on the continent, the rate of knowledge generation needs to be rapidly increased, and this requires first the identification of current barriers. Second, we need to update curricula at African universities to include statistical modelling which can fuel interest into more hypothesis-driven (rather than just descriptive) studies.
尽管世界上一些地区的人口正在减少,但非洲人口却在大幅增长,尽管流行病和全球大流行病屡屡发生。在植物多样性丰富的地方,非洲人口密度较高,而且 80% 的非洲人口依赖草药,因此非洲人口在疾病爆发时的恢复能力可能与非洲人与大自然的紧密联系有关。然而,这种联系的潜在影响是否已在科学论述中得到充分证实?为了研究这个问题,我们遵循了系统综述和元分析首选报告项目(PRISMA)指南。我们发现,很少有研究对非洲大陆绿地与人类健康状况之间的关系进行测试。在 54 个非洲国家中,调查绿地与健康之间关系的研究仅来自 6 个国家,而最早的研究仅发表于 2013 年,这表明非洲对这一主题的研究刚刚起步。这些为数不多的研究不仅报告的结果参差不齐,而且在设计(纵向与横截面)、预测因素和健康结果的选择以及如何衡量这些变量方面也各不相同。综述显示,非洲大陆关于绿地与人类健康关系的研究很少,因此很难:(1)建立或推广非洲绿地与人类健康状况之间的关系;(2)研究自然对非洲人类福祉影响的驱动机制。为了激发非洲大陆的兴趣并指导未来的研究工作,需要迅速提高知识的生成速度,这首先需要找出当前的障碍。其次,我们需要更新非洲各大学的课程,将统计建模纳入其中,从而激发对更多假设驱动型(而不仅仅是描述型)研究的兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Household Air Pollution Disparities Between Socioeconomic Groups in Chicago 芝加哥不同社会经济群体之间的家庭空气污染差异
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d3f
W. I. Krakowka, Jiajun Luo, Andrew Craver, Jayant Pinto, Habibul Ahsan, Christopher O. Olopade, B. Aschebrook-Kilfoy
Abstract Purpose: To assess indoor air pollution levels in urban US households and examine how socioeconomic factors influence these levels. Methods: We deployed wireless air monitoring devices to 244 households in a diverse population in Chicago to continuously record indoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration. We calculated hourly average PM2.5 concentration in a 24-hour cycle. Four factors – race, household income, area deprivation, and exposure to smoking – were considered in this study. Results: A total of 93085 hours of exposure data were recorded. The average indoor PM2.5 concentration was 43.8 μg/m3. We observed a significant difference in the average indoor PM2.5 concentrations between Black/African American and non-Black/African American households (46.3 vs. 31.6 μg/m3), between high-income and low-income households (18.2 vs. 52.5 μg/m3), and between smoking and non-smoking households (69.7 vs. 29.0 μg/m3). However, no significant difference was observed between households in less and more deprived areas (43.7 vs. 43.0 μg/m3). Implications: Indoor air pollution levels in Chicago households are much higher than the recommended level, challenging the hypothesis that indoor air quality is adequate for populations in high income nations. Our results indicate that it is the personal characteristics of participants, rather than the macro environments, that lead to observed differences in household air pollution. Keywords: PM, pollution, exposure, urbanicity, indoor environment
摘要 目的:评估美国城市家庭的室内空气污染水平,并研究社会经济因素如何影响这些水平。方法:我们在芝加哥不同人群的 244 个家庭中安装了无线空气监测设备,连续记录室内空气污染水平:我们在芝加哥不同人群的 244 个家庭中安装了无线空气监测装置,以连续记录室内细颗粒物(PM2.5)的浓度。我们以 24 小时为周期计算每小时的 PM2.5 平均浓度。本研究考虑了种族、家庭收入、地区贫困程度和是否吸烟这四个因素。研究结果共记录了 93085 小时的暴露数据。室内 PM2.5 平均浓度为 43.8 微克/立方米。我们观察到,黑人/非裔美国人家庭与非黑人/非裔美国人家庭之间(46.3 vs. 31.6 μg/m3)、高收入家庭与低收入家庭之间(18.2 vs. 52.5 μg/m3)以及吸烟家庭与非吸烟家庭之间(69.7 vs. 29.0 μg/m3)的室内 PM2.5 平均浓度存在明显差异。然而,在较贫困地区和较贫困地区的家庭之间(43.7 vs. 43.0 μg/m3)没有观察到明显的差异。影响:芝加哥家庭的室内空气污染水平远高于建议水平,这对 "室内空气质量足以满足高收入国家人口需求 "的假设提出了质疑。我们的研究结果表明,是参与者的个人特征而非宏观环境导致了观察到的家庭空气污染差异。关键词可吸入颗粒物、污染、暴露、城市化、室内环境
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引用次数: 0
An integrated expert recommender system approach to environmental service priorities in renewable energy 可再生能源环境服务优先级的综合专家推荐系统方法
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d3e
Serhat Yüksel, H. Di̇nçer, Umit Hacioglu, J. An, A. Mikhaylov, Z. Karpyn
The purpose of this study is to analyze the investment success of renewable energy service design. A novel model has been constructed for this purpose. At the first stage, collaborative filtering methodology is taken into consideration to complete missing evaluations. After that, M-SWARA based on QUSFSs with golden cut is used to compute the weights of these factors. Finally, the components of the service design are ranked by TOPSIS approach. The main contribution of the paper is that a new methodology (M-SWARA) has been created in this study by making improvements to SWARA. With the help of this new model, causal directions between the indicators can also be examined. Similarly, collaborative filtering methodology is taken into consideration to complete missing evaluations. In this process, the decision makers are allowed to leave the questions they wanted blank. This situation is considered as the superiority of the proposed model compared to many previous models in the literature. The findings indicate that cost is the most significant factor for the success of renewable energy investments because it gets the highest weight (.261). The ranking results also demonstrate that product is the most essential component of the service design of renewable energy investments. Therefore, solving the high-cost problem is of vital importance to increase these investments. First, renewable energy companies can reduce costs with more effective financial management. To carry out this process effectively, a finance department consisting of qualified personnel is needed. Thanks to this team, current situations in the financial markets will be better followed and this will play an important role in reducing costs.
本研究旨在分析可再生能源服务设计的投资成功率。为此,我们建立了一个新颖的模型。在第一阶段,考虑采用协同过滤方法来完成缺失评估。然后,使用基于 QUSFSs 的 M-SWARA 黄金分割法计算这些因素的权重。最后,采用 TOPSIS 方法对服务设计的各个组成部分进行排序。本文的主要贡献在于,通过对 SWARA 进行改进,本研究创建了一种新方法(M-SWARA)。在这一新模型的帮助下,还可以考察指标之间的因果关系。同样,协同过滤方法也可用于完成缺失评估。在这一过程中,决策者可以将他们想要的问题留空。这种情况被认为是所提出的模型与之前许多文献中的模型相比所具有的优越性。研究结果表明,成本是影响可再生能源投资成功与否的最重要因素,因为它的权重最高(0.261)。排序结果还表明,产品是可再生能源投资服务设计中最重要的组成部分。因此,解决高成本问题对增加这些投资至关重要。首先,可再生能源企业可以通过更有效的财务管理来降低成本。要有效开展这项工作,需要一个由合格人员组成的财务部门。有了这个团队,就能更好地跟踪金融市场的当前形势,从而在降低成本方面发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Climatic characteristics of centennial and extreme precipitation in Hangzhou, China 中国杭州百年降水和极端降水的气候特征
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d38
Kuo Wang, Han Zhang, Mengying Bao, Zhengquan Li, Gaofeng Fan
The precipitation characteristics in Hangzhou of Zhejiang Province, China under the background of global climate change are analyzed using the meteorological observation data obtained from the Hangzhou base station in this study. We investigate the climate characteristics of precipitation in Hangzhou from several aspects, such as centennial trend, seasonal change, periodicity and the variation of extreme precipitation. Our results show a linear decreasing trend and obvious interdecadal characteristics in the precipitation of Hangzhou on a centennial timescale. Significantly increased amplitude of precipitation fluctuation was observed since the beginning of the 21st century. For the interdecadal variation of seasonal precipitation on a centennial timescale, precipitation in autumn showed a decreasing trend of 8.1 mm/10a, whereas the trends for the other three seasons were statistically insignificant. The precipitation in Hangzhou showed a decreasing trend in spring and an increasing trend in winter over the past 30 years. Our analyses reveal distinct precipitation cycles, including a quasi-30-year cycle since the 1960s and a quasi-10-year cycle since the 1980s. However, the periodicity has weakened in the past 10 years. In addition, the occurrence of torrential rain has increased rapidly in the past 10 years. Furthermore, influenced by global climate change and regional processes, the variation of extreme precipitation in Hangzhou has changed, which shows strong correlations with the overall trend of annual precipitation. The annual maximum daily precipitation in Hangzhou was mainly in the range of 0-40 mm from 1951 to 1980 and in the range of 40-80 mm from 1981 to 2010 with the maximum daily precipitation occurrence rate of 1.41 times/10a and 1.89 times/10a, respectively. This study emphasizes the risk of urban waterlogging caused by short-term heavy rainfall and provides useful reference to the assessment of extreme meteorological and hydrological disaster risk in Hangzhou.
本研究利用杭州基站的气象观测资料,分析了全球气候变化背景下浙江省杭州市的降水特征。我们从百年趋势、季节变化、周期性和极端降水变化等几个方面研究了杭州降水的气候特征。研究结果表明,杭州市降水量在百年尺度上呈线性递减趋势,并具有明显的年代际特征。进入 21 世纪以来,降水波动幅度明显增大。在百年尺度上的季节降水量年代际变化中,秋季降水量呈 8.1 mm/10a 的递减趋势,而其他三个季节的递减趋势在统计上不显著。在过去 30 年中,杭州春季降水呈减少趋势,冬季呈增加趋势。我们的分析揭示了明显的降水周期,包括 20 世纪 60 年代以来的准 30 年周期和 20 世纪 80 年代以来的准 10 年周期。然而,在过去 10 年中,这种周期性有所减弱。此外,暴雨发生率在过去 10 年迅速增加。此外,受全球气候变化和区域过程的影响,杭州市极端降水量的变化与年降水量的总体趋势有较强的相关性。1951-1980年杭州市年最大日降水量主要在0-40毫米之间,1981-2010年主要在40-80毫米之间,最大日降水量出现率分别为1.41次/10a和1.89次/10a。该研究强调了短时强降雨引发城市内涝的风险,为杭州市极端气象水文灾害风险评估提供了有益参考。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of climate change on major floods flowing into the Georges River estuary, Australia 气候变化对流入澳大利亚乔治河口的主要洪水的影响
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d39
Wenjun Zhu, Xiao Hua Wang, William Peirson
Coastal flooding induced by storm surges and heavy rainfall is one of the most frequent climate-related natural hazards along the southeast Australian coast, home to more than 55% of the Australian population. Flooding in this densely populated region is a threat to public safety, coastal infrastructure, ecological systems and the economy. Although climate change is expected to cause an increase in major floods, few studies have quantified the potential changes in flood severity. This study quantifies the changes in flood peak discharge flowing to the Georges River estuary in Australia due to climate-change. An event-based hydrological model, Watershed Bounded Network Model (WBNM), was used to predict flood discharge. This hydrological model was forced by rainfall data obtained from the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project version 1.5 (NARCliM1.5) for both historical and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. Model calibration for the floods of March 1978 and March 2022 achieved a general agreement between the predicted and observed hydrographs, with an overall average 14% error in the peak values, further demonstrating that the modelling approach is generally reliable in projections of flood severity. Using high resolution climate model projections, the present study observed an increase of 22% in the model ensemble average from historical conditions to the RCP8.5 scenario for the 20-year average recurrence interval (ARI) 24-hour extreme rainfall. This heightened extreme rainfall consequently resulted in the changes in flood discharge with an average rise of 55%. This study provides specific assessment of climate-generated risks for densely-populated regions, especially those on Australian east coast. Global studies have suggested that extreme precipitation events will increase under climate change. This study supports and enhances these assertions by using high resolution downscaling to quantify the specific changes within a large catchment.
风暴潮和暴雨引发的沿海洪水是澳大利亚东南沿海最常见的与气候相关的自然灾害之一,澳大利亚 55% 以上的人口居住在这里。这一人口稠密地区的洪水威胁着公共安全、沿海基础设施、生态系统和经济。虽然气候变化预计会导致大洪水的增加,但很少有研究对洪水严重程度的潜在变化进行量化。本研究量化了流向澳大利亚乔治河口的洪峰流量因气候变化而发生的变化。研究采用了基于事件的水文模型--流域边界网络模型 (WBNM) 来预测洪水排放量。该水文模型由从新南威尔士州和澳大利亚首都地区区域气候模拟项目 1.5 版(NARCliM1.5)获得的历史和代表性浓度途径 8.5(RCP8.5)条件下的降雨数据驱动。对 1978 年 3 月和 2022 年 3 月的洪水进行模型校准后,预测水文图与观测水文图基本一致,峰值的总体平均误差为 14%,这进一步表明该模型方法在预测洪水严重程度方面总体可靠。利用高分辨率气候模型预测,本研究观察到,从历史条件到 RCP8.5 情景,模型集合平均值中 20 年平均重现间隔(ARI)24 小时极端降雨量增加了 22%。极端降雨量的增加导致洪水排放量发生变化,平均增加 55%。这项研究对人口稠密地区,尤其是澳大利亚东海岸地区的气候风险进行了具体评估。全球研究表明,在气候变化的影响下,极端降水事件将会增加。本研究通过使用高分辨率降尺度来量化大型集水区内的具体变化,从而支持并加强了这些论断。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of ecological network resilience using OWA and attack scenario simulation in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin, NW China 在中国西北部黄河流域甘肃段利用 OWA 和攻击情景模拟评估生态网络的恢复能力
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d3d
Kexin Zhang, Jinghu Pan
Regional ecosystem quality has been rapidly declining as a result of rapid urbanization, which has also fragmented landscapes and reduced ecosystem connectedness. Strengthening ecological network resilience helps improve the ecological environment's quality, protect biodiversity, and maximize ecological benefits. To quantitatively assess ecological network resilience based on 2020 data, we have selected the Gansu region of the Yellow River Basin as a case study in this study due to its significant ecological condition and sensitive vulnerability. Firstly, based on four ecosystem services (ESs)—water yield, carbon storage, soil conservation, and habitat quality—the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method is introduced to determine ecological sources by calculating ordered weights under different risk coefficients to weigh multiple ESs. Two node attack simulations—random attack and deliberate attack—are used for quantitatively evaluating ecological network resilience, which can simulate the impact of external interference. The concept of a resilience threshold is introduced into the evaluation process of network resilience. The findings indicate that (1) 156 ecological corridors spanning a total distance of 6,569.3 km and 73 ecological sources totalling 20,840 km2 were found in the study area. These findings generally demonstrate a concentrated and contiguous configuration in the southwestern region and a broken and scattered configuration in other regions. (2) With a mean degree of 4.27, a mean path length of 4.08, and a clustering coefficient of 0.47, an undirected and unweighted complex network with improved connectivity and no discernible clustering characteristics was established. (3) The ecological network is more resilient to perturbations from natural disasters when compared to assault simulations in two scenarios; the resilience threshold is 0.34. Considering the final results of node global features and resilience curves, ecological protection suggestions are proposed.
快速城市化导致区域生态系统质量迅速下降,同时也造成景观破碎化,降低了生态系统的连通性。加强生态网络韧性有助于改善生态环境质量,保护生物多样性,实现生态效益最大化。为了基于 2020 年的数据对生态网络韧性进行定量评估,我们选择了黄河流域甘肃地区作为研究案例。首先,基于四种生态系统服务(ES)--水产量、碳储存、土壤保持和栖息地质量,引入有序加权平均法(OWA),通过计算不同风险系数下的有序权重来权衡多种ES,从而确定生态源。采用随机攻击和蓄意攻击两种节点攻击模拟来定量评估生态网络的恢复力,从而模拟外部干扰的影响。在网络弹性评估过程中引入了弹性阈值的概念。研究结果表明:(1) 在研究区域内发现了 156 条生态走廊,总长度达 6569.3 千米;73 个生态源,总面积达 20840 平方千米。这些发现总体上表现为西南地区集中连片,其他地区破碎分散。(2) 生态网络的平均度数为 4.27,平均路径长度为 4.08,聚类系数为 0.47。(3) 与两种情况下的攻击模拟相比,生态网络对自然灾害扰动的恢复力更强;恢复力阈值为 0.34。根据节点全局特征和弹性曲线的最终结果,提出了生态保护建议。
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引用次数: 0
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Environmental Research Communications
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