Tate G. Meehan, Ahmad Hojatimalekshah, Hans-Peter Marshall, E. Deeb, S. O’Neel, Daniel McGrath, R. Webb, R. Bonnell, M. Raleigh, C. Hiemstra, Kelly Elder
Abstract. Estimating snow mass in the mountains remains a major challenge for remote-sensing methods. Airborne lidar can retrieve snow depth, and some promising results have recently been obtained from spaceborne platforms, yet density estimates are required to convert snow depth to snow water equivalent (SWE). However, the retrieval of snow bulk density remains unsolved, and limited data are available to evaluate model estimates of density in mountainous terrain. Toward the goal of landscape-scale retrievals of snow density, we estimated bulk density and length-scale variability by combining ground-penetrating radar (GPR) two-way travel-time observations and airborne-lidar snow depths collected during the mid-winter NASA SnowEx 2020 campaign at Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA. Key advancements of our approach include an automated layer-picking method that leverages the GPR reflection coherence and the distributed lidar–GPR-retrieved bulk density with machine learning. The root-mean-square error between the distributed estimates and in situ observations is 11 cm for depth, 27 kg m−3 for density, and 46 mm for SWE. The median relative uncertainty in distributed SWE is 13 %. Interactions between wind, terrain, and vegetation display corroborated controls on bulk density that show model and observation agreement. Knowledge of the spatial patterns and predictors of density is critical for the accurate assessment of SWE and essential snow research applications. The spatially continuous snow density and SWE estimated over approximately 16 km2 may serve as necessary calibration and validation for stepping prospective remote-sensing techniques toward broad-scale SWE retrieval.
摘要估算山区的雪量仍然是遥感方法面临的一大挑战。机载激光雷达可以探测雪深，最近机载平台也取得了一些有希望的结果，但要将雪深转换成雪水当量（SWE），还需要密度估算。然而，雪的体积密度检索问题仍未解决，用于评估山区地形密度估算模型的数据也很有限。为了实现景观尺度雪密度检索的目标，我们结合了在美国科罗拉多州大梅沙进行的美国宇航局 SnowEx 2020 年仲冬活动期间收集的地面穿透雷达（GPR）双向行进时间观测数据和机载激光雷达雪深数据，对雪的体积密度和长度尺度变化进行了估算。我们的方法的主要进步包括利用 GPR 反射相干性和分布式激光雷达-GPR 通过机器学习获取的体积密度的自动分层方法。分布式估计值与原位观测值之间的均方根误差为：深度 11 厘米、密度 27 千克/立方米、SWE 46 毫米。分布式 SWE 的相对不确定性中值为 13%。风、地形和植被之间的相互作用对容积密度的控制得到了证实，表明模型和观测结果一致。了解密度的空间模式和预测因素对于准确评估 SWE 和重要的雪研究应用至关重要。在约 16 平方公里的范围内估算出的空间连续雪密度和 SWE 可作为必要的校准和验证，帮助未来的遥感技术走向大范围 SWE 检索。
{"title":"Spatially distributed snow depth, bulk density, and snow water equivalent from ground-based and airborne sensor integration at Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA","authors":"Tate G. Meehan, Ahmad Hojatimalekshah, Hans-Peter Marshall, E. Deeb, S. O’Neel, Daniel McGrath, R. Webb, R. Bonnell, M. Raleigh, C. Hiemstra, Kelly Elder","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-3253-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3253-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Estimating snow mass in the mountains remains a major challenge for remote-sensing methods. Airborne lidar can retrieve snow depth, and some promising results have recently been obtained from spaceborne platforms, yet density estimates are required to convert snow depth to snow water equivalent (SWE). However, the retrieval of snow bulk density remains unsolved, and limited data are available to evaluate model estimates of density in mountainous terrain. Toward the goal of landscape-scale retrievals of snow density, we estimated bulk density and length-scale variability by combining ground-penetrating radar (GPR) two-way travel-time observations and airborne-lidar snow depths collected during the mid-winter NASA SnowEx 2020 campaign at Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA. Key advancements of our approach include an automated layer-picking method that leverages the GPR reflection coherence and the distributed lidar–GPR-retrieved bulk density with machine learning. The root-mean-square error between the distributed estimates and in situ observations is 11 cm for depth, 27 kg m−3 for density, and 46 mm for SWE. The median relative uncertainty in distributed SWE is 13 %. Interactions between wind, terrain, and vegetation display corroborated controls on bulk density that show model and observation agreement. Knowledge of the spatial patterns and predictors of density is critical for the accurate assessment of SWE and essential snow research applications. The spatially continuous snow density and SWE estimated over approximately 16 km2 may serve as necessary calibration and validation for stepping prospective remote-sensing techniques toward broad-scale SWE retrieval.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"30 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141816813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, Benjamin J. Wallis
Abstract. Many glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula have retreated and accelerated in recent decades. Here we show that there has been a widespread, quasi-synchronous, and sustained increase in grounding line discharge from glaciers on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula since 2018. Overall, the west Antarctic Peninsula discharge trends increased by over a factor of 3, from 50 Mt yr−2 during 2017 to 2020 up to 160 Mt yr−2 in the years following, leading to a 7.4 % increase in grounding line discharge since 2017. The acceleration in discharge was concentrated at glaciers connected to deep, cross-shelf troughs hosting warm-ocean waters, and the acceleration occurred during a period of anomalously high subsurface water temperatures on the continental shelf. Given that many of the affected glaciers have retreated over the past several decades in response to ocean warming, thereby highlighting their sensitivity to ocean forcing, we argue that the recent period of anomalously warm water was likely a key driver of the observed acceleration. However, the acceleration also occurred during a time of anomalously high atmospheric temperatures and glacier surface runoff, which could have contributed to speed-up by directly increasing basal water pressure and, by invigorating near-glacier ocean circulation, increasing submarine melt rates. The spatial pattern of glacier acceleration therefore provides an indication of glaciers that are exposed to warm-ocean water at depth and/or have active surface-to-bed hydrological connections; however, many stages in the chain of events leading to glacier acceleration, and how that response is affected by glacier-specific factors, remain insufficiently understood. Both atmospheric and ocean temperatures in this region and its surroundings are likely to increase further in the coming decades; therefore, there is a pressing need to improve our understanding of recent changes in Antarctic Peninsula glacier dynamics in response atmospheric and oceanic changes in order to improve projections of their behaviour over the coming century.
{"title":"Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018","authors":"B. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, Benjamin J. Wallis","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Many glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula have retreated and accelerated in recent decades. Here we show that there has been a widespread, quasi-synchronous, and sustained increase in grounding line discharge from glaciers on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula since 2018. Overall, the west Antarctic Peninsula discharge trends increased by over a factor of 3, from 50 Mt yr−2 during 2017 to 2020 up to 160 Mt yr−2 in the years following, leading to a 7.4 % increase in grounding line discharge since 2017. The acceleration in discharge was concentrated at glaciers connected to deep, cross-shelf troughs hosting warm-ocean waters, and the acceleration occurred during a period of anomalously high subsurface water temperatures on the continental shelf. Given that many of the affected glaciers have retreated over the past several decades in response to ocean warming, thereby highlighting their sensitivity to ocean forcing, we argue that the recent period of anomalously warm water was likely a key driver of the observed acceleration. However, the acceleration also occurred during a time of anomalously high atmospheric temperatures and glacier surface runoff, which could have contributed to speed-up by directly increasing basal water pressure and, by invigorating near-glacier ocean circulation, increasing submarine melt rates. The spatial pattern of glacier acceleration therefore provides an indication of glaciers that are exposed to warm-ocean water at depth and/or have active surface-to-bed hydrological connections; however, many stages in the chain of events leading to glacier acceleration, and how that response is affected by glacier-specific factors, remain insufficiently understood. Both atmospheric and ocean temperatures in this region and its surroundings are likely to increase further in the coming decades; therefore, there is a pressing need to improve our understanding of recent changes in Antarctic Peninsula glacier dynamics in response atmospheric and oceanic changes in order to improve projections of their behaviour over the coming century.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"105 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141821826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 10.6 mm to global sea level rise between 1992 and 2018, and it is projected to be the largest glacial contributor to sea level rise by 2100. Here we assess the relative importance of two major sources of uncertainty in 21st century ice loss projections: (1) the choice of sliding law and (2) the surface mass balance (SMB) forecast. Specifically, we used the ice flow model Úa to conduct an ensemble of runs for 48 combinations of sliding law and SMB forecast for three major Greenland outlet glaciers (Kangerlussuaq (KG), Humboldt (HU) and Petermann (PG) glaciers) with differing characteristics and evaluated how the sensitivity to these factors varied between the study glaciers. Overall, our results show that SMB forecasts were responsible for 4.45 mm of the variability in sea level rise by 2100 compared with 0.33 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) due to sliding law. HU had the largest absolute contribution to sea level rise and the largest range (2.16–7.96 mm SLE), followed by PG (0.84–5.42 mm SLE), and these glaciers showed similar patterns of ice loss across the SMB forecasts and sliding laws. KG had the lowest range and absolute values (−0.60 to 3.45 mm SLE) of sea level rise, and the magnitude of mass loss by SMB forecast differed markedly between HU and PG. Our results highlight SMB forecasts as a key focus for improving estimates of Greenland's contribution to 21st century sea level rise.
{"title":"Sensitivity to forecast surface mass balance outweighs sensitivity to basal sliding descriptions for 21st century mass loss from three major Greenland outlet glaciers","authors":"J. R. Carr, Emily A. Hill, G. H. Gudmundsson","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 10.6 mm to global sea level rise between 1992 and 2018, and it is projected to be the largest glacial contributor to sea level rise by 2100. Here we assess the relative importance of two major sources of uncertainty in 21st century ice loss projections: (1) the choice of sliding law and (2) the surface mass balance (SMB) forecast. Specifically, we used the ice flow model Úa to conduct an ensemble of runs for 48 combinations of sliding law and SMB forecast for three major Greenland outlet glaciers (Kangerlussuaq (KG), Humboldt (HU) and Petermann (PG) glaciers) with differing characteristics and evaluated how the sensitivity to these factors varied between the study glaciers. Overall, our results show that SMB forecasts were responsible for 4.45 mm of the variability in sea level rise by 2100 compared with 0.33 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) due to sliding law. HU had the largest absolute contribution to sea level rise and the largest range (2.16–7.96 mm SLE), followed by PG (0.84–5.42 mm SLE), and these glaciers showed similar patterns of ice loss across the SMB forecasts and sliding laws. KG had the lowest range and absolute values (−0.60 to 3.45 mm SLE) of sea level rise, and the magnitude of mass loss by SMB forecast differed markedly between HU and PG. Our results highlight SMB forecasts as a key focus for improving estimates of Greenland's contribution to 21st century sea level rise.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"57 37","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141339020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Moser, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Anja Eichler, Eric Wolff
Abstract. Melting polar and alpine ice sheets in response to global warming pose ecological and societal risks but will also hamper our ability to reconstruct past climate and atmospheric composition across the globe. Since polar ice caps are crucial environmental archives but highly sensitive to ongoing climate warming, the Arctic and Antarctic research community is increasingly faced with melt-affected ice cores, which are already common in alpine settings of the lower latitudes. Here, we review the characteristics and effects of near-surface melting on ice-core records, focusing on a polar readership and making recommendations for melt-prone study regions. This review first covers melt layer formation, identification and quantification of melt, and structural characteristics of melt features. Subsequently, it discusses effects of melting on records of chemical impurities, i.e. major ions, trace elements, black carbon, and organic species as well as stable water isotopic signatures, gas records, and applications of melt layers as environmental proxies. Melting occurs during positive surface energy balance events, which are shaped by global to local meteorological forcing, regional orography, glacier surface conditions and subsurface characteristics. Meltwater flow ranges from homogeneous wetting to spatially heterogeneous preferential flow paths and is determined by temperature, thermal conductivity and stratigraphy of the snowpack. Melt layers and lenses are the most common consequent features in ice cores and are usually recorded manually or using line scanning. Chemical ice-core proxy records of water-soluble species are generally less preserved than insoluble particles such as black carbon or mineral dust due to their strong elution behaviour during percolation. However, high solubility in ice as observed for ions like F−, Cl−, NH4+ or ultra-trace elements can counteract the high mobility of these species due to burial in the ice interior. Stable water isotope records like δ18O are often preserved but appear smoothed if significant amounts of meltwater are involved. Melt-affected ice cores are further faced with questions about the permeability of the firn column for gas movement, and gas concentrations can be increased through dissolution and in situ production. Noble gas ratios can be useful tools for identifying melt-affected profile sections in deep ice. Despite challenges for ice-core climate reconstruction based on chemical records, melt layers are a proxy of warm temperatures above freezing, which is most sensitive in the dry snow and percolation zone. Bringing together insights from snow physics, firn hydrology, and ice-core proxy research, we aim to foster a more comprehensive understanding of ice cores as climate and environmental archives, provide a reference on how to approach melt-affected records, and raise awareness of the limitations and potential of melt layers in ice cores.
{"title":"Review article: Melt-affected ice cores for polar research in a warming world","authors":"D. Moser, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Anja Eichler, Eric Wolff","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Melting polar and alpine ice sheets in response to global warming pose ecological and societal risks but will also hamper our ability to reconstruct past climate and atmospheric composition across the globe. Since polar ice caps are crucial environmental archives but highly sensitive to ongoing climate warming, the Arctic and Antarctic research community is increasingly faced with melt-affected ice cores, which are already common in alpine settings of the lower latitudes. Here, we review the characteristics and effects of near-surface melting on ice-core records, focusing on a polar readership and making recommendations for melt-prone study regions. This review first covers melt layer formation, identification and quantification of melt, and structural characteristics of melt features. Subsequently, it discusses effects of melting on records of chemical impurities, i.e. major ions, trace elements, black carbon, and organic species as well as stable water isotopic signatures, gas records, and applications of melt layers as environmental proxies. Melting occurs during positive surface energy balance events, which are shaped by global to local meteorological forcing, regional orography, glacier surface conditions and subsurface characteristics. Meltwater flow ranges from homogeneous wetting to spatially heterogeneous preferential flow paths and is determined by temperature, thermal conductivity and stratigraphy of the snowpack. Melt layers and lenses are the most common consequent features in ice cores and are usually recorded manually or using line scanning. Chemical ice-core proxy records of water-soluble species are generally less preserved than insoluble particles such as black carbon or mineral dust due to their strong elution behaviour during percolation. However, high solubility in ice as observed for ions like F−, Cl−, NH4+ or ultra-trace elements can counteract the high mobility of these species due to burial in the ice interior. Stable water isotope records like δ18O are often preserved but appear smoothed if significant amounts of meltwater are involved. Melt-affected ice cores are further faced with questions about the permeability of the firn column for gas movement, and gas concentrations can be increased through dissolution and in situ production. Noble gas ratios can be useful tools for identifying melt-affected profile sections in deep ice. Despite challenges for ice-core climate reconstruction based on chemical records, melt layers are a proxy of warm temperatures above freezing, which is most sensitive in the dry snow and percolation zone. Bringing together insights from snow physics, firn hydrology, and ice-core proxy research, we aim to foster a more comprehensive understanding of ice cores as climate and environmental archives, provide a reference on how to approach melt-affected records, and raise awareness of the limitations and potential of melt layers in ice cores.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"2 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141357119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Gerli, S. Rosier, G. H. Gudmundsson, Sainan Sun
Abstract. Over the past decade, a wealth of research has been devoted to the detection of crevasses in glaciers and ice sheets via remote sensing and machine learning techniques. It is often argued that remotely sensed damage maps can function as early warning signals for shifts in ice shelf conditions from intact to damaged states and can serve as an important tool for ice sheet modellers to improve future sea level rise predictions. Here, we provide evidence for the Filchner–Ronne and Pine Island ice shelves that remotely sensed damage maps are only weakly related to the ice rate factor field A derived by an ice flow model when inverting for surface velocities. This technique is a common procedure in ice flow models, as it guarantees that any inferred changes in A relate to changes in ice flow measured through observations. The weak relationship found is improved when investigating heavily damaged shear margins, as observed on the Pine Island Ice Shelf; however, even in this setting, this association remains modest. Our findings suggest that many features identified as damage through remote sensing methods are not of direct relevance to present-day ice shelf flow. While damage can clearly play an important role in ice shelf processes and thus be relevant for ice sheet behaviour and sea level rise projections, our results imply that mapping ice damage directly from satellite observations may not directly help improve the representation of these processes in ice flow models.
摘要过去十年来，大量研究致力于通过遥感和机器学习技术探测冰川和冰原的裂缝。人们通常认为，遥感破坏图可以作为冰架状况从完好状态向破坏状态转变的早期预警信号，并可作为冰原建模人员改进未来海平面上升预测的重要工具。在这里，我们提供了 Filchner-Ronne 冰架和松岛冰架的证据，证明遥感损伤图与冰流模型得出的冰速率因子场 A 在反演表面速度时只有微弱的关系。这种技术是冰流模型的常用程序，因为它能保证 A 的任何推断变化都与观测所测得的冰流变化有关。在研究松岛冰架上观测到的严重破坏的剪切边缘时，发现的微弱关系有所改善；然而，即使在这种情况下，这种关联仍然不大。我们的研究结果表明，许多通过遥感方法确定的破坏特征与当今冰架流动并无直接关系。虽然损伤在冰架流动过程中显然起着重要作用，因此与冰原行为和海平面上升预测有关，但我们的研究结果表明，直接通过卫星观测绘制冰损伤图可能无助于改善冰流模型对这些过程的描述。
{"title":"Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves","authors":"C. Gerli, S. Rosier, G. H. Gudmundsson, Sainan Sun","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Over the past decade, a wealth of research has been devoted to the detection of crevasses in glaciers and ice sheets via remote sensing and machine learning techniques. It is often argued that remotely sensed damage maps can function as early warning signals for shifts in ice shelf conditions from intact to damaged states and can serve as an important tool for ice sheet modellers to improve future sea level rise predictions. Here, we provide evidence for the Filchner–Ronne and Pine Island ice shelves that remotely sensed damage maps are only weakly related to the ice rate factor field A derived by an ice flow model when inverting for surface velocities. This technique is a common procedure in ice flow models, as it guarantees that any inferred changes in A relate to changes in ice flow measured through observations. The weak relationship found is improved when investigating heavily damaged shear margins, as observed on the Pine Island Ice Shelf; however, even in this setting, this association remains modest. Our findings suggest that many features identified as damage through remote sensing methods are not of direct relevance to present-day ice shelf flow. While damage can clearly play an important role in ice shelf processes and thus be relevant for ice sheet behaviour and sea level rise projections, our results imply that mapping ice damage directly from satellite observations may not directly help improve the representation of these processes in ice flow models.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"21 32‐33","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141379774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. T. Bett, A. T. Bradley, C. R. Williams, Paul R. Holland, R. Arthern, Daniel N. Goldberg
Abstract. The Amundsen Sea sector has some of the fastest-thinning ice shelves in Antarctica, caused by high, ocean-driven basal melt rates, which can lead to increased ice streamflow, causing increased sea level rise (SLR) contributions. In this study, we present the results of a new synchronously coupled ice-sheet–ocean model of the Amundsen Sea sector. We use the Wavelet-based, Adaptive-grid, Vertically Integrated ice sheet model (WAVI) to solve for ice velocities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to solve for ice thickness and three-dimensional ocean properties, allowing for full mass conservation in the coupled ice–ocean system. The coupled model is initialised in the present day and run forward under idealised warm and cold ocean conditions with a fixed ice front. We find that Thwaites Glacier dominates the future SLR from the Amundsen Sea sector, with a SLR that evolves approximately quadratically over time. The future evolution of Thwaites Glacier depends on the lifespan of small pinning points that form during the retreat. The rate of melting around these pinning points provides the link between future ocean conditions and the SLR from this sector and will be difficult to capture without a coupled ice–ocean model. Grounding-line retreat leads to a progressively larger Thwaites Ice Shelf cavity, leading to a positive trend in total melting, resulting from the increased ice basal surface area. Despite these important sensitivities, Thwaites Glacier retreats even in a scenario with zero ocean-driven melting. This demonstrates that a tipping point may have been passed in these simulations and some SLR from this sector is now committed.
{"title":"Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector","authors":"D. T. Bett, A. T. Bradley, C. R. Williams, Paul R. Holland, R. Arthern, Daniel N. Goldberg","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Amundsen Sea sector has some of the fastest-thinning ice shelves in Antarctica, caused by high, ocean-driven basal melt rates, which can lead to increased ice streamflow, causing increased sea level rise (SLR) contributions. In this study, we present the results of a new synchronously coupled ice-sheet–ocean model of the Amundsen Sea sector. We use the Wavelet-based, Adaptive-grid, Vertically Integrated ice sheet model (WAVI) to solve for ice velocities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to solve for ice thickness and three-dimensional ocean properties, allowing for full mass conservation in the coupled ice–ocean system. The coupled model is initialised in the present day and run forward under idealised warm and cold ocean conditions with a fixed ice front. We find that Thwaites Glacier dominates the future SLR from the Amundsen Sea sector, with a SLR that evolves approximately quadratically over time. The future evolution of Thwaites Glacier depends on the lifespan of small pinning points that form during the retreat. The rate of melting around these pinning points provides the link between future ocean conditions and the SLR from this sector and will be difficult to capture without a coupled ice–ocean model. Grounding-line retreat leads to a progressively larger Thwaites Ice Shelf cavity, leading to a positive trend in total melting, resulting from the increased ice basal surface area. Despite these important sensitivities, Thwaites Glacier retreats even in a scenario with zero ocean-driven melting. This demonstrates that a tipping point may have been passed in these simulations and some SLR from this sector is now committed.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"5 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141272706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, J. Otero, E. De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, Iván Pérez-Doña
Abstract. Frontal ablation is responsible for a large fraction of the mass loss from tidewater glaciers. The main contributors to frontal ablation are iceberg calving and submarine melting, with calving often being the largest. However, submarine melting, in addition to its direct contribution to mass loss, also promotes calving through the changes induced in the stress field at the glacier terminus, so both processes should be jointly analysed. Among the factors influencing submarine melting, the formation of a buoyant plume due to the emergence of fresh subglacial water at the glacier grounding line plays a key role. In this study we used Elmer/Ice to develop a 3D glacier dynamics model including calving and subglacial hydrology coupled with a line plume model to calculate the calving front position at every time step. We applied this model to the Hansbreen–Hansbukta glacier–fjord system in southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, where a large set of data are available for both the glacier and the fjord from September 2008 to March 2011. We found that our 3D model reproduced the expected seasonal cycle of advance–retreat. Besides, the modelled front positions were in good agreement with the observed front positions at the central part of the calving front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m for the period from December 2009 to March 2011. But there were regions of the front, especially the eastern margin, that presented major differences.
{"title":"A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard","authors":"José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, J. Otero, E. De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, Iván Pérez-Doña","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Frontal ablation is responsible for a large fraction of the mass loss from tidewater glaciers. The main contributors to frontal ablation are iceberg calving and submarine melting, with calving often being the largest. However, submarine melting, in addition to its direct contribution to mass loss, also promotes calving through the changes induced in the stress field at the glacier terminus, so both processes should be jointly analysed. Among the factors influencing submarine melting, the formation of a buoyant plume due to the emergence of fresh subglacial water at the glacier grounding line plays a key role. In this study we used Elmer/Ice to develop a 3D glacier dynamics model including calving and subglacial hydrology coupled with a line plume model to calculate the calving front position at every time step. We applied this model to the Hansbreen–Hansbukta glacier–fjord system in southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, where a large set of data are available for both the glacier and the fjord from September 2008 to March 2011. We found that our 3D model reproduced the expected seasonal cycle of advance–retreat. Besides, the modelled front positions were in good agreement with the observed front positions at the central part of the calving front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m for the period from December 2009 to March 2011. But there were regions of the front, especially the eastern margin, that presented major differences.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"28 33","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140672100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Karol Tylmann, W. Wysota, V. Rinterknecht, P. Moska, Aleksandra Bielicka-Giełdoń
Abstract. The paper presents the first terrestrial record of millennial-scale palaeo-ice margin oscillations at the southern fringe of the last Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the last glacial cycle. The study area is located in northern Poland close to the last FIS maximum limit. The chronology and dynamics of palaeo-ice margin oscillations at the southern fringe of the FIS are based on combined luminescence and 10Be surface exposure dating. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) was used to date sandy deposits (fluvioglacial sediments and aeolian deposits filling fossil periglacial wedges) intercalating basal till layers. The most likely age of the tills was constrained by Bayesian modelling of the sequence of OSL ages and lithostratigraphy. 10Be surface exposure dating was used on erratic boulders left during the final retreat of the last FIS and resting on the surface of glacial landforms. Our results, which are mainly based on OSL chronology and Bayesian modelling, indicate millennial-scale oscillations of the last FIS in northern Poland between ∼19 and ∼17 ka. The last FIS retreated and re-advanced over a relatively short period of time (2–3 ka), leaving lithostratigraphic records (basal tills) of three ice re-advances over a millennial-scale cycle: 19.2±1.1, 17.8±0.5 and 16.9±0.5 ka. Despite 10Be surface exposure ages obtained for 14 erratic boulders being poorly clustered, the main mode of age distribution occurs at ∼18 ka and indicates a possible signal of the ice sheet retreat after one of the re-advances. We explore the dynamics of these oscillations and compare the proposed cycles of the southern FIS advances and retreats with existing patterns of the last deglaciation and millennial-scale fluctuations of the last FIS inferred from marine records.
{"title":"Millennial-scale fluctuations of palaeo-ice margin at the southern fringe of the last Fennoscandian Ice Sheet","authors":"Karol Tylmann, W. Wysota, V. Rinterknecht, P. Moska, Aleksandra Bielicka-Giełdoń","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1889-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1889-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The paper presents the first terrestrial record of millennial-scale palaeo-ice margin oscillations at the southern fringe of the last Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the last glacial cycle. The study area is located in northern Poland close to the last FIS maximum limit. The chronology and dynamics of palaeo-ice margin oscillations at the southern fringe of the FIS are based on combined luminescence and 10Be surface exposure dating. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) was used to date sandy deposits (fluvioglacial sediments and aeolian deposits filling fossil periglacial wedges) intercalating basal till layers. The most likely age of the tills was constrained by Bayesian modelling of the sequence of OSL ages and lithostratigraphy. 10Be surface exposure dating was used on erratic boulders left during the final retreat of the last FIS and resting on the surface of glacial landforms. Our results, which are mainly based on OSL chronology and Bayesian modelling, indicate millennial-scale oscillations of the last FIS in northern Poland between ∼19 and ∼17 ka. The last FIS retreated and re-advanced over a relatively short period of time (2–3 ka), leaving lithostratigraphic records (basal tills) of three ice re-advances over a millennial-scale cycle: 19.2±1.1, 17.8±0.5 and 16.9±0.5 ka. Despite 10Be surface exposure ages obtained for 14 erratic boulders being poorly clustered, the main mode of age distribution occurs at ∼18 ka and indicates a possible signal of the ice sheet retreat after one of the re-advances. We explore the dynamics of these oscillations and compare the proposed cycles of the southern FIS advances and retreats with existing patterns of the last deglaciation and millennial-scale fluctuations of the last FIS inferred from marine records.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"43 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140668200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. Glaciers along the Amundsen Sea coastline in West Antarctica are dynamically adjusting to a change in ice-shelf mass balance that triggered their retreat and speed-up prior to the satellite era. In recent decades, the ice shelves have continued to thin, albeit at a decelerating rate, whilst ice discharge across the grounding lines has been observed to have increased by up to 100 % since the early 1990s. Here, the ongoing evolution of ice-shelf mass balance components is assessed in a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model that includes the Pine Island, Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves. For a range of idealized ocean-forcing scenarios, the combined evolution of ice-shelf geometry and basal-melt rates is simulated over a 200-year period. For all ice-shelf cavities, a reconfiguration of the 3D ocean circulation in response to changes in cavity geometry is found to cause significant and sustained changes in basal-melt rate, ranging from a 75 % decrease up to a 75 % increase near the grounding lines, irrespective of the far-field forcing. These previously unexplored feedbacks between changes in ice-shelf geometry, ocean circulation, and basal melting have a demonstrable impact on the net ice-shelf mass balance, including grounding-line discharge, at multi-decadal timescales. They should be considered in future projections of Antarctic mass loss alongside changes in ice-shelf melt due to anthropogenic trends in the ocean temperature and salinity.
{"title":"Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica","authors":"J. De Rydt, K. Naughten","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Glaciers along the Amundsen Sea coastline in West Antarctica are dynamically adjusting to a change in ice-shelf mass balance that triggered their retreat and speed-up prior to the satellite era. In recent decades, the ice shelves have continued to thin, albeit at a decelerating rate, whilst ice discharge across the grounding lines has been observed to have increased by up to 100 % since the early 1990s. Here, the ongoing evolution of ice-shelf mass balance components is assessed in a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model that includes the Pine Island, Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves. For a range of idealized ocean-forcing scenarios, the combined evolution of ice-shelf geometry and basal-melt rates is simulated over a 200-year period. For all ice-shelf cavities, a reconfiguration of the 3D ocean circulation in response to changes in cavity geometry is found to cause significant and sustained changes in basal-melt rate, ranging from a 75 % decrease up to a 75 % increase near the grounding lines, irrespective of the far-field forcing. These previously unexplored feedbacks between changes in ice-shelf geometry, ocean circulation, and basal melting have a demonstrable impact on the net ice-shelf mass balance, including grounding-line discharge, at multi-decadal timescales. They should be considered in future projections of Antarctic mass loss alongside changes in ice-shelf melt due to anthropogenic trends in the ocean temperature and salinity.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"76 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140677070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiahui Xu, Yao Tang, Linxin Dong, Shuji Wang, Bailang Yu, Jianping Wu, Zhaojun Zheng, Yan Huang
Abstract. A detailed understanding of snow cover and its possible feedback on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of great importance. However, spatiotemporal variability in snow phenology (SP) and its influencing factors on the TP remain unclear. Based on the daily gap-free snow cover product (HMRFS-TP) with 500 m resolution, this study investigated the spatiotemporal variability in snow cover days (SCDs), snow onset date (SOD), and snow end date (SED) on the TP from 2002 to 2022. A structural equation model was used to quantify the direct and indirect effects of meteorological factors, geographical location, topography, and vegetation greenness on SP. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of SP on the TP was extremely uneven and exhibited temporal heterogeneity. SP showed vertical zonality influenced by elevation (longer SCD, earlier SOD, and later SED at higher elevations). A total of 4.62 % of the TP area had a significant decrease in SCDs, at a rate of −1.74 d yr−1. The SOD of 2.34 % of the TP area showed a significant delayed trend, at a rate of 2.90 d yr−1, while the SED of 1.52 % of the TP area had a significant advanced trend, at a rate of at −2.49 d yr−1. We also found a strong elevation dependence for the trend in SCDs (R=-0.73). Air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and shortwave radiation can directly affect SP as well as indirectly affect it by influencing the growth of vegetation, whereas the direct effect was much greater than the indirect effect. Geographical location (latitude and longitude) and topographic conditions (elevation and slope) indirectly affected SP by modulating meteorological conditions and the growth of vegetation. Vegetation primarily influences SP by intercepting the snow and regulating the balance of the solar radiation budget. Regarding the total effect, air temperature was found to be the dominant factor. This study contributes to the understanding of snow variation in response to global warming over the past 2 decades by providing a basis for predicting future environmental and climate changes and their impacts on the TP.
摘要详细了解青藏高原（TP）的积雪覆盖及其对气候变化的可能反馈具有重要意义。然而，青藏高原积雪物候的时空变异及其影响因素仍不清楚。本研究基于分辨率为 500 m 的日无间隙积雪产品（HMRFS-TP），研究了 2002 年至 2022 年青藏高原积雪覆盖日（SCDs）、初雪日（SOD）和终雪日（SED）的时空变化。采用结构方程模型量化了气象因素、地理位置、地形和植被绿度对 SP 的直接和间接影响。结果表明，TP 上 SP 的空间分布极不均匀，并表现出时间异质性。受海拔影响，SP 呈现垂直地带性（海拔越高，SCD 越长，SOD 越早，SED 越晚）。共有 4.62% 的大陆坡面积的 SCD 显著下降，降幅为-1.74 d/yr-1。2.34% 的大陆坡面积的 SOD 呈明显延迟趋势，速率为 2.90 d yr-1，而 1.52% 的大陆坡面积的 SED 呈明显提前趋势，速率为 -2.49 d yr-1。我们还发现，SCD 的变化趋势与海拔有很大关系（R=-0.73）。气温、降水、风速和短波辐射可直接影响 SP，也可通过影响植被生长间接影响 SP，但直接影响远大于间接影响。地理位置（纬度和经度）和地形条件（海拔和坡度）通过调节气象条件和植被生长间接影响 SP。植被主要通过拦截积雪和调节太阳辐射预算平衡来影响 SP。就总体影响而言，气温是主要因素。这项研究为预测未来的环境和气候变化及其对TP的影响提供了依据，有助于人们了解过去20年中积雪随全球变暖而发生的变化。
{"title":"Temperature-dominated spatiotemporal variability in snow phenology on the Tibetan Plateau from 2002 to 2022","authors":"Jiahui Xu, Yao Tang, Linxin Dong, Shuji Wang, Bailang Yu, Jianping Wu, Zhaojun Zheng, Yan Huang","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1817-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1817-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. A detailed understanding of snow cover and its possible feedback on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of great importance. However, spatiotemporal variability in snow phenology (SP) and its influencing factors on the TP remain unclear. Based on the daily gap-free snow cover product (HMRFS-TP) with 500 m resolution, this study investigated the spatiotemporal variability in snow cover days (SCDs), snow onset date (SOD), and snow end date (SED) on the TP from 2002 to 2022. A structural equation model was used to quantify the direct and indirect effects of meteorological factors, geographical location, topography, and vegetation greenness on SP. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of SP on the TP was extremely uneven and exhibited temporal heterogeneity. SP showed vertical zonality influenced by elevation (longer SCD, earlier SOD, and later SED at higher elevations). A total of 4.62 % of the TP area had a significant decrease in SCDs, at a rate of −1.74 d yr−1. The SOD of 2.34 % of the TP area showed a significant delayed trend, at a rate of 2.90 d yr−1, while the SED of 1.52 % of the TP area had a significant advanced trend, at a rate of at −2.49 d yr−1. We also found a strong elevation dependence for the trend in SCDs (R=-0.73). Air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and shortwave radiation can directly affect SP as well as indirectly affect it by influencing the growth of vegetation, whereas the direct effect was much greater than the indirect effect. Geographical location (latitude and longitude) and topographic conditions (elevation and slope) indirectly affected SP by modulating meteorological conditions and the growth of vegetation. Vegetation primarily influences SP by intercepting the snow and regulating the balance of the solar radiation budget. Regarding the total effect, air temperature was found to be the dominant factor. This study contributes to the understanding of snow variation in response to global warming over the past 2 decades by providing a basis for predicting future environmental and climate changes and their impacts on the TP.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":" 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140689637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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