Pub Date : 2024-02-22DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-104-112
U. М. Kamaletdinov
The article is devoted to the problems of transformation of the educational system in the context of lifelong learning and Industry 4.0 in government decision-making for the development of the investment ecosystem of the Republic of Uzbekistan.The article outlines characteristics of information and statistical resources used in the public administration system in modern conditions on the basis of analysis, and presents directions of transformation of the system of statistical training and retraining of statisticians.The issues of introducing digital competencies in the field of statistics into training programs and the need to develop modern knowledge and skills related to the introduction of digital technologies were highlighted.The author emphasizes the relevance of adapting the educational system in the field of statistics to the evolving requirements of the modern world and concludes that the development of professional competencies of statisticians should be continuous and start with secondary education, followed by retraining, and advanced training received throughout their professional careers.The recommendations presented in the author’s studycan be used by the authorities and other interested organizations to improve the educational system in the field of statistics.
{"title":"Approaches to the Transformation of the Statistical Education System in the Context of Lifelong Learning and Industry 4.0 (Оn the Example of the Republic of Uzbekistan)","authors":"U. М. Kamaletdinov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-104-112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-104-112","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the problems of transformation of the educational system in the context of lifelong learning and Industry 4.0 in government decision-making for the development of the investment ecosystem of the Republic of Uzbekistan.The article outlines characteristics of information and statistical resources used in the public administration system in modern conditions on the basis of analysis, and presents directions of transformation of the system of statistical training and retraining of statisticians.The issues of introducing digital competencies in the field of statistics into training programs and the need to develop modern knowledge and skills related to the introduction of digital technologies were highlighted.The author emphasizes the relevance of adapting the educational system in the field of statistics to the evolving requirements of the modern world and concludes that the development of professional competencies of statisticians should be continuous and start with secondary education, followed by retraining, and advanced training received throughout their professional careers.The recommendations presented in the author’s studycan be used by the authorities and other interested organizations to improve the educational system in the field of statistics.","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140440644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-22DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-5-21
I. Lola, М. В. Bakeev, А. В. Manukov
The purpose of the article is to present the main results of the study on the development of methods and testing of tools necessary for continuous monitoring of the business environment in Russia by measuring the level of its uncertainty and identifying the degree of its influence on the dynamics of economic activity based on the analysis of business tendency surveys. This methodology was tested for the first time to assess the level of uncertainty in the business environment and its impact on the digital and technological development of domestic industrial enterprises.The source of data for the study is regular sample surveys of business leaders for the period from 2009 to 2022. Two independent databases are used: quarterly surveys of business activity of organizations of various types of economic activity to build national and industry indicators of uncertainty in the business environment and annual pilot surveys of digital activity of industrial enterprises to construct an indicator of uncertainty in the field of digital and technological development of industry.All calculated composite indicators were able to identify significant features of the economic situation for the Russian economy associated with shock events. When analyzing the fluctuations of the indicators under study, «spikes» are clearly detected in response to the shocks of the business tendencies in 2020 and 2022. In general, the period from 2020 to the present is characterized as a period of prolonged crisis associated with growing uncertainty in the Russian economic environment, the unprecedented scale of which was demonstrated by the constructed indicators.According to the authors, the proposed composite indicators expand the analytical capabilities of business tendency surveys data, creating the prerequisites for regular monitoring of changes in the level of uncertainty in the business environment and increasing the operational value of the information provided by companies. This allows to develop more accurate socio-economic scenario forecasts.
{"title":"New Indicators of Business Uncertainty in the Russian Economy","authors":"I. Lola, М. В. Bakeev, А. В. Manukov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-5-21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-5-21","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the article is to present the main results of the study on the development of methods and testing of tools necessary for continuous monitoring of the business environment in Russia by measuring the level of its uncertainty and identifying the degree of its influence on the dynamics of economic activity based on the analysis of business tendency surveys. This methodology was tested for the first time to assess the level of uncertainty in the business environment and its impact on the digital and technological development of domestic industrial enterprises.The source of data for the study is regular sample surveys of business leaders for the period from 2009 to 2022. Two independent databases are used: quarterly surveys of business activity of organizations of various types of economic activity to build national and industry indicators of uncertainty in the business environment and annual pilot surveys of digital activity of industrial enterprises to construct an indicator of uncertainty in the field of digital and technological development of industry.All calculated composite indicators were able to identify significant features of the economic situation for the Russian economy associated with shock events. When analyzing the fluctuations of the indicators under study, «spikes» are clearly detected in response to the shocks of the business tendencies in 2020 and 2022. In general, the period from 2020 to the present is characterized as a period of prolonged crisis associated with growing uncertainty in the Russian economic environment, the unprecedented scale of which was demonstrated by the constructed indicators.According to the authors, the proposed composite indicators expand the analytical capabilities of business tendency surveys data, creating the prerequisites for regular monitoring of changes in the level of uncertainty in the business environment and increasing the operational value of the information provided by companies. This allows to develop more accurate socio-economic scenario forecasts.","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140439651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-22DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-22-42
Е. А. Staritsyna
When constructing estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross value added (GVA) at constant prices, three approaches or a combination of them are used: extrapolation, simple deflation and double deflation. The latter approach is considered preferable, but is not yet used in Russian statistics. The article is devoted to the issues of constructing estimates of GDP and GVA dynamics for the Russian Federation using double deflation. The interest in constructing such estimates is due to the possibility of taking into account the dependence of production on domestic and import supplies, which the other two approaches lack. Received for the period from 2011 to 2016 estimates were compared with official indicators for the overall economy, the service sector, and for mining and manufacturing.From 2011 to 2016 alternative estimates of the physical volume indices of GDP and GVA showed lower growth rates compared to official indicators. This is due to the faster growth of alternative estimates of intermediate consumption compared to official ones. In the structure of intermediate consumption, domestic intermediate products were replacing imported analogues. The current dynamics of indicators, to a first approximation, shows signs of localization of production, which may be associated with the transition of enterprises to domestic outsourcing and the implementation of an import substitution policy.At the same time, the presence of measurement problems in the use of double deflation is obvious, most clearly manifested when moving to the analysis of indicators of lower levels of aggregation. The analysis shows in favor of conducting additional research related to the introduction of the double deflation technique in the official methodology.
{"title":"Experience in Measuring Estimates of Russian GDP Dynamics Using Double Deflation Approach","authors":"Е. А. Staritsyna","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-22-42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-22-42","url":null,"abstract":"When constructing estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross value added (GVA) at constant prices, three approaches or a combination of them are used: extrapolation, simple deflation and double deflation. The latter approach is considered preferable, but is not yet used in Russian statistics. The article is devoted to the issues of constructing estimates of GDP and GVA dynamics for the Russian Federation using double deflation. The interest in constructing such estimates is due to the possibility of taking into account the dependence of production on domestic and import supplies, which the other two approaches lack. Received for the period from 2011 to 2016 estimates were compared with official indicators for the overall economy, the service sector, and for mining and manufacturing.From 2011 to 2016 alternative estimates of the physical volume indices of GDP and GVA showed lower growth rates compared to official indicators. This is due to the faster growth of alternative estimates of intermediate consumption compared to official ones. In the structure of intermediate consumption, domestic intermediate products were replacing imported analogues. The current dynamics of indicators, to a first approximation, shows signs of localization of production, which may be associated with the transition of enterprises to domestic outsourcing and the implementation of an import substitution policy.At the same time, the presence of measurement problems in the use of double deflation is obvious, most clearly manifested when moving to the analysis of indicators of lower levels of aggregation. The analysis shows in favor of conducting additional research related to the introduction of the double deflation technique in the official methodology.","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140440961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-22DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-72-82
L. Rodionova, E. Kopnova, А. А. Kobtseva
The results of a statistical analysis of the factors determining the decisions of families regarding the choice of the month of child birth are presented in the article. A review of the literature shows that a wide range of factors – cultural, biological, climatic and socio-economic – can influence these decisions. In the article, the authors focus on socio-economic determinants. In the Russian Federation, as well as throughout the world, there is a steady seasonality of births: between 2000 and 2022 most children were born in July and August. The article formulates a number of hypotheses regarding possible seasonality determinants, which were tested on the basis of Rosstat data from a sample survey of households «Comprehensive observation of living conditions of the population in 2020» and Rosstat data on registered births by month in Russian regions for 2019–2022. Using unordered multiple choice logit model estimates, cluster analysis and correlation analysis the authors obtained results demonstrating that the choice of summer months for the child birth is determined primarily by household, with the increase of which the birth of a child is more often planned for July. In regions characterized by high rates of quality-of-life indicators, predominantly urban population and a high level of contraceptive use, family preferences in choosing the summer months for child birth are also increasing. The influence of mother's age and education was not identified in the work.The results of the study can be used by the authorities to develop an effective strategy in the field of demographic policy.
{"title":"Socio-Economic Determinants of Choosing the Month of Child Birth in the Russian Federation: Statistical Analysis","authors":"L. Rodionova, E. Kopnova, А. А. Kobtseva","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-72-82","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-72-82","url":null,"abstract":"The results of a statistical analysis of the factors determining the decisions of families regarding the choice of the month of child birth are presented in the article. A review of the literature shows that a wide range of factors – cultural, biological, climatic and socio-economic – can influence these decisions. In the article, the authors focus on socio-economic determinants. In the Russian Federation, as well as throughout the world, there is a steady seasonality of births: between 2000 and 2022 most children were born in July and August. The article formulates a number of hypotheses regarding possible seasonality determinants, which were tested on the basis of Rosstat data from a sample survey of households «Comprehensive observation of living conditions of the population in 2020» and Rosstat data on registered births by month in Russian regions for 2019–2022. Using unordered multiple choice logit model estimates, cluster analysis and correlation analysis the authors obtained results demonstrating that the choice of summer months for the child birth is determined primarily by household, with the increase of which the birth of a child is more often planned for July. In regions characterized by high rates of quality-of-life indicators, predominantly urban population and a high level of contraceptive use, family preferences in choosing the summer months for child birth are also increasing. The influence of mother's age and education was not identified in the work.The results of the study can be used by the authorities to develop an effective strategy in the field of demographic policy.","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140440867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-22DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-55-71
L. N. Lipatova
The paper presents the core findings of a study on improving methodological approaches to adequate assessment of dynamics of the quality of life of older people in Russia. The author has identified challenges in implementing some international recommendations on the topic thereon. These challenges resulted from differences in the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and its ethnocultural traditions. The article defines domestic information and statistical base for studying the quality of life of the population, in particular, the older population.The author describes a system of basic indicators that includes key measures of health status of older people, their financial security and economic activity. Based on the proposed approach and official statistics, the situation with the older generation in Russia in 2010–2020 is analyzed. An assessment is made of the significance of both positive trends in improving the quality of life in the older generation (increased life expectancy, improved health, increased economic activity of the population aged 60 years and older), as well as unresolved problems, primarily, relatively low level of pensions compared to the subsistence level and high degree of interregional differentiation of pensions.The paper concludes with proposals concerning directions and sequence of organizational and financial measures aimed at improving the quality of life of pensioners, proposed by the author, based on specific results of statistical analysis. Among the top priorities are: indexation of pensions for non-working pensioners ahead of the inflation rate, indexation of pensions for working pensioners at 1/2 of the inflation rate, registration and, if necessary, organization of medical and social services for older citizens living alone.
{"title":"Methodological Approaches to Assessing the Quality of Life of Older People in Russia","authors":"L. N. Lipatova","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-55-71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-55-71","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the core findings of a study on improving methodological approaches to adequate assessment of dynamics of the quality of life of older people in Russia. The author has identified challenges in implementing some international recommendations on the topic thereon. These challenges resulted from differences in the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and its ethnocultural traditions. The article defines domestic information and statistical base for studying the quality of life of the population, in particular, the older population.The author describes a system of basic indicators that includes key measures of health status of older people, their financial security and economic activity. Based on the proposed approach and official statistics, the situation with the older generation in Russia in 2010–2020 is analyzed. An assessment is made of the significance of both positive trends in improving the quality of life in the older generation (increased life expectancy, improved health, increased economic activity of the population aged 60 years and older), as well as unresolved problems, primarily, relatively low level of pensions compared to the subsistence level and high degree of interregional differentiation of pensions.The paper concludes with proposals concerning directions and sequence of organizational and financial measures aimed at improving the quality of life of pensioners, proposed by the author, based on specific results of statistical analysis. Among the top priorities are: indexation of pensions for non-working pensioners ahead of the inflation rate, indexation of pensions for working pensioners at 1/2 of the inflation rate, registration and, if necessary, organization of medical and social services for older citizens living alone.","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140441084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-77-86
A. Y. Surinov
Building on the analysis of the current state of state statistics in Russia, the author formulates development priorities for the national statistical system (NSS) amid digitalization and scarcity of resources. The paper explains the NSS focus on the use of records and state registers as the information basis of official statistics. It is proposed to consider Big Data as a source of additional information that requires verification and adjustments when generating official statistics.The article justifies the need to preserve the system of traditional statistical surveys that allows for measuring phenomena and processes in society and the economy, including characteristics that are not registered when events are recorded by authorities. The author emphasizes the relevance of this system when implementing an essential function of state statistical bodies – creating an integrated information and statistical space in the country.
{"title":"Official Statistics Today: Choosing the Path of Development","authors":"A. Y. Surinov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-77-86","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-77-86","url":null,"abstract":"Building on the analysis of the current state of state statistics in Russia, the author formulates development priorities for the national statistical system (NSS) amid digitalization and scarcity of resources. The paper explains the NSS focus on the use of records and state registers as the information basis of official statistics. It is proposed to consider Big Data as a source of additional information that requires verification and adjustments when generating official statistics.The article justifies the need to preserve the system of traditional statistical surveys that allows for measuring phenomena and processes in society and the economy, including characteristics that are not registered when events are recorded by authorities. The author emphasizes the relevance of this system when implementing an essential function of state statistical bodies – creating an integrated information and statistical space in the country.","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139181621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-21-34
D. S. Ternovsky
The article presents the results of an economic and statistical analysis of Russian agricultural exports from 2012 to 2021 – a period of intensive growth during which revenue in foreign markets doubled, and the country entered the top twenty leaders in food exports. The in- fluence of the factors of physical volume and price on the dynamics of exports of products from the agricultural sector of Russia is analyzed, and a change in the assessment of the contribution of individual product categories to export growth was revealed when recalculating indica- tors from current prices to comparable prices. It has been established that average prices for Russian agricultural products are half the world pri-ces, which leads to a lack of income from the export of agricultural products for Russia (on average, about 4.9 billion US dollars per year for the last five years). The main reason for this deviation is that a significant share of the structure of Russian food exports is made up of products with a low degree of processing. Additionally, there is a situation with lower prices for some Russian goods of a comparable range, primarily in the food and processing industries.An assessment of the risks to the sustainability of Russian agribusiness in the event of a disruption in export supplies showed that, given the low level of development of intra-industry trade, domestic production remains quite vulnerable to a potential reduction in exports when foreign trade restrictions are introduced. If trade chains are broken, only 20% of exports can be redirected to the domestic market to replace imports.An analysis of the achievement of targets for the development of Russian agricultural exports in 2016–2021 was carried out and indicates that, despite its significant overall growth during the period under study, in some years its dynamics lagged behind the values established in state programs, even considering their repeated adjustments. This is largely due to the dependence of the growth of Russian exports of agricultural products on the increase in the production of grain and oilseeds, which is influenced, among other things, by random weather factors. Thus, based on data for individual years, it is impossible to judge the success or failure in the implementation of Russian agricultural export devel- opment programs, and the methodology for assessing the achievement of target indicators itself requires improvement.
{"title":"Russian Agricultural Exports: Economic and Statistical Analysis","authors":"D. S. Ternovsky","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-21-34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-21-34","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the results of an economic and statistical analysis of Russian agricultural exports from 2012 to 2021 – a period of intensive growth during which revenue in foreign markets doubled, and the country entered the top twenty leaders in food exports. The in- fluence of the factors of physical volume and price on the dynamics of exports of products from the agricultural sector of Russia is analyzed, and a change in the assessment of the contribution of individual product categories to export growth was revealed when recalculating indica- tors from current prices to comparable prices. It has been established that average prices for Russian agricultural products are half the world pri-ces, which leads to a lack of income from the export of agricultural products for Russia (on average, about 4.9 billion US dollars per year for the last five years). The main reason for this deviation is that a significant share of the structure of Russian food exports is made up of products with a low degree of processing. Additionally, there is a situation with lower prices for some Russian goods of a comparable range, primarily in the food and processing industries.An assessment of the risks to the sustainability of Russian agribusiness in the event of a disruption in export supplies showed that, given the low level of development of intra-industry trade, domestic production remains quite vulnerable to a potential reduction in exports when foreign trade restrictions are introduced. If trade chains are broken, only 20% of exports can be redirected to the domestic market to replace imports.An analysis of the achievement of targets for the development of Russian agricultural exports in 2016–2021 was carried out and indicates that, despite its significant overall growth during the period under study, in some years its dynamics lagged behind the values established in state programs, even considering their repeated adjustments. This is largely due to the dependence of the growth of Russian exports of agricultural products on the increase in the production of grain and oilseeds, which is influenced, among other things, by random weather factors. Thus, based on data for individual years, it is impossible to judge the success or failure in the implementation of Russian agricultural export devel- opment programs, and the methodology for assessing the achievement of target indicators itself requires improvement.","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139181742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-35-50
A. G. Nazarova
Building upon a series of the author’s prior publications in the journal Voprosy Statistiki (in 2019–2022), this new article further deve- lops the idea of applying National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) as a toolkit for economic and demographic analysis of a wide range of macro patterns in the economy, both nationally and on the regional level. The author highlights the NTAs' practical utility, allowing for a more detailed, compared to the System of National Accounts (SNA), analysis of the reallocation of financial resources, including through the prism of dependents and those who finance them. It includes a concise description of the current research concept and the methodology approach chosen for the analysis.Based on the author's calculations of the analyzed indicators at the national and regional levels, the body of the article confirms that the influence of the age structure of society on consumer spending of the population manifests itself in the priorities of consumer demand. On the macro level, the comparative example of Russia, Sweden and Mexico shows commonalities and specificities in the financing of con- sumer demand by resources of the private and public sectors and the corresponding timespans of running deficit-free economic lifecycle in these countries. As a comparative framework for the Russian economy, the countries with the most (Sweden) and least (Mexico) generous state subsidies for the consumption of the population in the form of current transfer support were selected. In the regional aspect of the analysis, the structural characteristics of the age profile of the regions (from 2011 to 2020) were compared with the accumulated (per capita) dynamics of regional consumer spending with a pronounced age bias (on education and healthcare). The regional results were analyzed in the context of the overall economic situation. The article illustrates the qualitatively different consumer demand priorities of the «young» and «advanced- in-years» regions by the comparative infographics case studying the Republic of Ingushetia and Tver Region (regions with diametrically opposite features of the demographic structure). The author has dealt with consumer behavior models across various ages in the context of the Strauss-Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe.The author demonstrates how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the sources of financing household spending on the level of the economy as a whole.The concluding section draws methodological parallels between national transfer accounts and such summary indicators as human de- velopment indices and the UN Sustainable Development Goals to be considered in macroeconomic and regional analysis
{"title":"Consumer Spending in the Mirror of Aggregate Transfer Accounts: National and Regional Aspects","authors":"A. G. Nazarova","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-35-50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-35-50","url":null,"abstract":"Building upon a series of the author’s prior publications in the journal Voprosy Statistiki (in 2019–2022), this new article further deve- lops the idea of applying National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) as a toolkit for economic and demographic analysis of a wide range of macro patterns in the economy, both nationally and on the regional level. The author highlights the NTAs' practical utility, allowing for a more detailed, compared to the System of National Accounts (SNA), analysis of the reallocation of financial resources, including through the prism of dependents and those who finance them. It includes a concise description of the current research concept and the methodology approach chosen for the analysis.Based on the author's calculations of the analyzed indicators at the national and regional levels, the body of the article confirms that the influence of the age structure of society on consumer spending of the population manifests itself in the priorities of consumer demand. On the macro level, the comparative example of Russia, Sweden and Mexico shows commonalities and specificities in the financing of con- sumer demand by resources of the private and public sectors and the corresponding timespans of running deficit-free economic lifecycle in these countries. As a comparative framework for the Russian economy, the countries with the most (Sweden) and least (Mexico) generous state subsidies for the consumption of the population in the form of current transfer support were selected. In the regional aspect of the analysis, the structural characteristics of the age profile of the regions (from 2011 to 2020) were compared with the accumulated (per capita) dynamics of regional consumer spending with a pronounced age bias (on education and healthcare). The regional results were analyzed in the context of the overall economic situation. The article illustrates the qualitatively different consumer demand priorities of the «young» and «advanced- in-years» regions by the comparative infographics case studying the Republic of Ingushetia and Tver Region (regions with diametrically opposite features of the demographic structure). The author has dealt with consumer behavior models across various ages in the context of the Strauss-Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe.The author demonstrates how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the sources of financing household spending on the level of the economy as a whole.The concluding section draws methodological parallels between national transfer accounts and such summary indicators as human de- velopment indices and the UN Sustainable Development Goals to be considered in macroeconomic and regional analysis","PeriodicalId":509234,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139181515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-5-20
A. Tatarinov
The paper presents results of the first stage of research on the construction of social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the Russian Federation as part of the HSE University study on statistical assessment of households’ economic behaviour. The author analyses the methodological foun- dations of SAM compilation, their connection with the System of National Accounts (SNA) and their use in macroeconomic analysis. Special attention is paid to the application of SAM in evaluating exogenous impacts, including multiplier effects, arising in all spheres of the national economy at governing decision-making and implementation of economic policy projects.The paper reviews aggregated social accounting matrices for the Russian Federation for the year 2020 that were compiled according to the SNA methodology and based on the G. Pyatt and A. Roe modified model. The author proposes the scheme of accounts partial trans- formation enhancing the reflection of direct income flows between institutional sectors. The properties of SAM as a static economic impact evaluation model are reviewed, and for illustration purposes, results of experimental computation of the effect of changed demand from the Rest of the World are considered.Analysis of areas of SAM application and its development as a tool for macroeconomic research highlights the importance of development methods of a detailed representation of the structure of household incomes and expenditures in social accounting matrices. It will foster solutions to poverty, inequality and connected social problems. It is noted that, with increased attention to the social aspects of macroeconomic accounting, SAM can become a major tool for measuring well-being and household income formation and distribution processes in macroeconomic statistics.
本文介绍了关于构建俄罗斯联邦社会核算矩阵（SAM）的第一阶段研究成果，该研究是 HSE 大学家庭经济行为统计评估研究的一部分。作者分析了编制社会核算矩阵的方法论基础、其与国民账户体系（SNA）的联系及其在宏观经济分析中的应用。论文特别关注了在评估外生影响（包括乘数效应）方面的应用，这些外生影响产生于国民经济的各个领域，用于管理决策和经济政策项目的实施。论文回顾了根据国民账户体系方法并在 G. Pyatt 和 A. Roe 修正模型的基础上编制的 2020 年俄罗斯联邦社会核算汇总表。作者提出了账目部分转换方案，以加强反映机构部门之间的直接收入流。对 SAM 的应用领域及其作为宏观经济研究工具的发展进行了分析，强调了在社会核算矩阵中详细表示家庭收入和支出结构的发展方法的重要性。这将有助于解决贫困、不平等和相关的社会问题。人们注意到，随着对宏观经济核算的社会方面的更多关注，社会核算矩阵可以成为宏观经济统计中衡量福利和家庭收入形成和分配过程的主要工具。
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Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-6-51-64
E. A. Sadykova
The main purpose of the study is to determine the differences in factors influencing alcohol consumption in Russia (among urban and rural residents).The first part of the article provides the author's assessment of studies in which place of residence is considered as a specific factor influencing alcohol consumption. Attention is paid to works that focus on differences in factors affecting alcohol consumption depending on the place of residence.The main section of the article contains a description of the empirical testing of the hypotheses based on statistical data for 2012–2021 from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) NRU HSE. The author used panel logistic regression with random individual effects for the probability of alcohol consumption and a panel Tobin model for the volume of alcohol consumption. The study revealed differences in the degree of influence of the level of education and religiosity, marital status and the presence of children on the level of alcohol consumption among urban and rural residents. Thus, a higher level of religiosity reduces the likelihood of alcohol consumption by rural residents; the volume of alcohol consumption decreases with a rise in the level of religiosity in the city. It is also shown that the presence of children in families reduces per capita alcohol consumption only in villages.According to the author, the findings help make more effective and targeted recommendations for implementing state alcohol policy.
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