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Who Leaves and Who Enters? Flow Measures of Neighborhood Change and Consequences for Neighborhood Crime 谁离开谁进入?邻里关系变迁的流量测度及其对邻里犯罪的影响
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-03-24 DOI: 10.1177/00224278221088534
John R. Hipp, Alyssa W. Chamberlain
Objectives Longitudinal studies of the relationship between neighborhood change and changes in crime typically focus exclusively on the net level of change in key socio-demographic characteristics. Methods We instead propose a demographic accounting strategy that captures the composition of neighborhood change: our measures capture which types of people are more likely to leave, stay, or enter the neighborhood. We use data for 3,325 tracts in the Southern California region over nearly two decades of 2000–2010 and 2010–2017 and construct flow measures based on race/ethnicity; the length of residence of owners and renters; the age structure. Results These flow measures improve the predictive power of the models—implying important theoretical insights. Neighborhoods with higher percentages of middle-aged residents who recently entered the neighborhood exhibit larger increases in violent and property crime. The relative stability of those in the highest crime-prone ages (aged 15–29) is associated with the largest increases in violent and property crime. The greater loss of Black and Asian residents decreased crime while moderate outflows of Latinos increased crime. The mobility of long- and short-term renters was related to crime changes. Conclusions This new technique will likely encourage further theoretical innovation for the neighborhoods and crime literature.
目的对邻里变化和犯罪变化之间关系的纵向研究通常只关注关键社会人口特征的净变化水平。方法相反,我们提出了一种人口统计策略,以捕捉社区变化的组成:我们的衡量标准捕捉哪些类型的人更有可能离开、留下或进入社区。我们使用了2000年至2010年和2010年至2017年近20年来南加州地区3325个地块的数据,并构建了基于种族/民族的流量测量;业主和租房者的居住期限;年龄结构。结果这些流量测量提高了模型的预测能力,这意味着重要的理论见解。最近进入该社区的中年居民比例较高的社区,暴力和财产犯罪的增加幅度更大。犯罪高发年龄段(15-29岁)人群的相对稳定与暴力和财产犯罪的最大增长有关。黑人和亚裔居民的大量流失减少了犯罪,而拉丁裔人口的适度外流增加了犯罪。长期和短期租房者的流动性与犯罪率的变化有关。结论这一新技术可能会促进社区和犯罪文献的进一步理论创新。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the Impact of Mental Health, Substance Use, and Co-Occurring Disorders on Juvenile Court Outcomes 检查心理健康,物质使用和共同发生的障碍对少年法庭结果的影响
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-03-11 DOI: 10.1177/00224278221084981
D. Walker, Arynn A. Infante, Deja Knight
Objectives: This study isolates the effects of mental health, substance use, and co-occurring disorders on three distinct dispositional outcomes: incarceration (i.e., jail/detention), non-incarcerative residential placement (i.e., treatment facility), and community sanctions (i.e., fines/restitution or probation). Methods: Using a sample of juvenile offenders from the Pathways to Desistance study (N = 617), a series of logistic regression models were estimated to test the joint and independent effects of mental health, substance use, and co-occurring disorders on the likelihood of detention versus non-incarcerative sanctions. A series of multinomial logistic regression models were estimated to assess whether these disorders increase the likelihood of out-of-home placement (i.e., non-incarcerative residential placement and incarceration) relative to community sanctions. Results: While having any disorder was associated with out-of-home placement, youth with substance use disorders had the greatest likelihood of receiving an out-of-home placement, including detention. Youth with co-occurring disorders were more likely to receive a non-incarcerative residential placement, whereas mental health disorders did not demonstrate a significant effect on adjudication. Conclusions: Youth with mental health, substance use, and co-occurring disorders are treated differently in juvenile court. Using a composite disorder measure and/or not considering various sanction types could mask the effects of such disorders on court outcomes.
目的:本研究分离了心理健康、药物使用和同时发生的障碍对三种不同性格结果的影响:监禁(即监狱/拘留)、非监禁居住安置(即治疗设施)和社区制裁(即罚款/恢复原状或缓刑)。方法:采用回避途径研究(N = 617),估计了一系列逻辑回归模型,以测试心理健康、药物使用和并发疾病对拘留与非监禁制裁可能性的联合和独立影响。评估了一系列多项逻辑回归模型,以评估相对于社区制裁,这些障碍是否增加了家庭外安置(即非监禁居住安置和监禁)的可能性。结果:虽然任何障碍都与家庭外安置有关,但患有药物使用障碍的年轻人最有可能接受家庭外安置,包括拘留。患有合并障碍的青少年更有可能获得非监禁的住宿安置,而心理健康障碍对裁决没有显著影响。结论:青少年法庭对有心理健康、药物使用和并发疾病的青少年有不同的对待。使用综合障碍措施和/或不考虑各种制裁类型可能会掩盖此类障碍对法庭结果的影响。
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引用次数: 3
An Examination of Noncompleted Sexual Offences, Offenders’ Perceptions of Risks and Difficulties and Related Situational Factors 非完全性犯罪、罪犯对风险和困难的认知及相关情境因素的考察
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-03-07 DOI: 10.1177/00224278221085244
Benoit Leclerc, D. Reynald, R. Wortley, A. Cook, Jesse Cale
Objectives: The current study aims to generate insights from sexual offenders on noncompleted sexual offences, that is, on offences that were stopped or discouraged. Methods: Using a sample of sexual offenders who initiated a sexual offence but were stopped or discouraged in action, which we refer to as noncompleted offences, we first examine which and how situational factors and internal states may affect their assessment of risks of apprehension and difficulties in this context. Second, we examine whether situational factors, internal states as well as perceived risks and difficulties can predict offence noncompletion. Linear and logistic regression models were estimated based on the type of offence (noncompleted sexual offences against women or children). Results: Main findings indicate that victim physical resistance is critical for how sex offenders are perceiving difficulties related to offending against women. The presence of a person nearby and victim resistance are predictive of noncompletion of sexual offences against children. Conclusion: This is a critical line of research because knowledge on the factors and circumstances that can discourage or stop offenders from committing crimes can be used by scholars and practitioners to think of prevention initiatives to reduce opportunities of crime.
目的:目前的研究旨在从性犯罪者那里获得对未完成性犯罪的见解,即对被阻止或阻止的犯罪的见解。方法:我们选取了一组性犯罪者,他们发起了性犯罪,但在行动中被阻止或气馁,我们称之为未完成的犯罪,我们首先研究了哪些以及如何情境因素和内部状态可能影响他们对这种情况下的逮捕风险和困难的评估。其次,我们考察了情境因素、内部状态以及感知风险和困难是否可以预测犯罪不完成。根据犯罪类型(未完成的对妇女或儿童的性犯罪)估计线性和逻辑回归模型。结果:主要研究结果表明,受害者的身体抵抗对性犯罪者如何感知与侵犯妇女有关的困难至关重要。附近有人的存在和受害者的反抗预示着对儿童的性侵犯没有完成。结论:这是一条关键的研究路线,因为学者和从业人员可以利用有关可以阻止或阻止罪犯犯罪的因素和环境的知识来思考预防措施,以减少犯罪机会。
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引用次数: 5
Childhood Head Injury as an Acquired Neuropsychological Risk Factor for Adolescent Delinquency 儿童脑损伤是青少年犯罪的获得性神经心理危险因素
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-02-23 DOI: 10.1177/00224278221081140
Jessica Mongilio
Objectives: This study aims to parse out the effects of childhood head injury (HI) as an acquired neuropsychological deficit that impacts adolescent delinquent behavior, while accounting for other early-life risk factors and potential temporal ordering. Methods: Nationally representative prospective data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; N = 13,287) and a series of logistic and binomial regressions are used to examine the relationship between early-life risk factors, HI, and adolescent delinquent behavior. Methodological considerations from clinical HI research, such as the use of an orthopedic injury comparison group, are incorporated. Results: Findings are consistent with the conceptualization of HI as an acquired neuropsychological deficit, in that childhood HI increases the risk of early- and adolescent-onset delinquency, sustained delinquent behavior from childhood to early adolescence, and participation in a greater variety of delinquent behavior. Conclusions: Childhood HI is relatively common, as over 27% of the sample reported at least one HI. The importance of HI as an acquired neuropsychological deficit and its relevance as a risk factor for later criminal behavior is reiterated. Future research should examine the importance of developmental period effects and mechanisms underlying this relationship.
目的:本研究旨在分析儿童脑损伤作为一种获得性神经心理缺陷对青少年犯罪行为的影响,同时考虑其他早期生活风险因素和潜在的时间顺序。方法:来自英国千禧年队列研究(MCS;N = 13,287),并使用一系列逻辑回归和二项回归来检验早期生活风险因素,HI和青少年犯罪行为之间的关系。从临床HI研究的方法学考虑,如骨科损伤对照组的使用,被纳入。结果:研究结果与HI作为一种获得性神经心理缺陷的概念是一致的,儿童HI增加了早期和青春期发病的犯罪风险,从童年到青春期早期持续的犯罪行为,以及参与更多种类的犯罪行为。结论:儿童HI相对常见,超过27%的样本报告至少有一次HI。HI作为一种获得性神经心理缺陷的重要性及其作为日后犯罪行为风险因素的相关性被重申。未来的研究应该考察发育时期效应的重要性和这种关系背后的机制。
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引用次数: 4
Unpacking the Criminogenic Aspects of Stress Over the Life Course: The Joint Effects of Proximal Strain and Childhood Abuse on Violence and Substance Use in a High-Risk Sample of Women 揭开生命过程中压力的致犯罪方面:高危女性样本中近端紧张和儿童虐待对暴力和药物使用的联合影响
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-02-15 DOI: 10.1177/00224278211068188
L. Slocum, Jennifer Medel, E. Doherty, S. Simpson
Purpose: Drawing on concepts from strain, feminist, and life-course perspectives, we investigate the proximal effects of strain on violence and serious drug use along with the distal “carryover” effects of childhood abuse among women. Methods: Using 36 months of retrospective data collected from 778 incarcerated women, we estimate monthly within-person effects of four types of strain experienced in adulthood (i.e., negative life events and three forms of victimization) on respondent-initiated violence and serious drug use. Cross-level interactions assess the moderating “carryover” effects of childhood abuse and cumulative adversity. Results: Negative life events increased women's initiation of violence and serious drug use. Having a near violent experience was positively associated with violence, while violent conflict increased drug use. Experiencing both childhood physical and sexual abuse accentuated the effect of predatory victimization on violence, and physical victimization amplified the positive relationship between near violence and drug use. Unexpectedly, women who experienced childhood sexual abuse were less likely to use drugs after experiencing strain. The accumulation of adversity among abused women could not account for these moderating effects. Conclusion: Findings suggest women's recent life experiences can explain offending in the foreground, while childhood abuse can account for some within-sex heterogeneity in these relationships.
目的:从压力、女权主义和生命历程的角度出发,我们研究了压力对暴力和严重药物使用的近端影响,以及女性儿童虐待的远端“遗留”影响。方法:利用从778名被监禁妇女中收集的36个月的回顾性数据,我们估计了成年后经历的四种类型的压力(即负面生活事件和三种形式的伤害)对受访者发起的暴力和严重吸毒的月度人内影响。跨层面的互动评估了儿童虐待和累积逆境的调节“遗留”影响。结果:负面生活事件增加了妇女暴力和严重吸毒的发生。近暴力经历与暴力呈正相关,而暴力冲突增加了毒品使用。童年时期遭受身体虐待和性虐待加剧了掠夺性伤害对暴力的影响,而身体伤害则放大了近乎暴力与吸毒之间的积极关系。出乎意料的是,经历过童年性虐待的女性在经历压力后不太可能使用药物。受虐妇女的逆境积累并不能解释这些缓和作用。结论:研究结果表明,女性最近的生活经历可以解释未来的冒犯行为,而童年虐待可以解释这些关系中的一些性别内异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Recidivism of Low-Risk People That Receive Residential Community-Based Correctional Programs: The Role of Risk Contamination 接受社区矫正计划的低风险人群的累犯:风险污染的作用
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-02-07 DOI: 10.1177/00224278221078020
Michael Ostermann
Objectives Placing low-risk individuals into residential community-based correctional programs often results in minimal or iatrogenic impacts upon recidivism. Contamination through exposure to higher-risk program participants is a mechanism that has been used to explain these effects. This study empirically explores this phenomenon. Methods A series of survival models examine data from low-risk paroled people released from a state’s prisons from 2005 to 2011 (n = 3,862) to assess the impact of residential community-based program participation upon recidivism. The daily rate of exposure to higher-risk people while attending programs is modeled for a subset of program participants (n = 202) to assess impacts upon time to failure within 18-months of program completion. Results Program participation increased the hazards of failure by approximately 66% for low-risk paroled people. Exposure to higher-risk people did not have significant impacts upon recidivism. Conclusions The current study coincides with past work demonstrating that policy makers and practitioners should be mindful of the potential iatrogenic or minimal recidivism effects associated with treating low-risk people through residential community-based programs. The mechanisms by which these effects are produced are in need of further exploration. Particular attention should be paid to whether programs can disrupt pro-social aspects of low-risk peoples’ lives.
目的将低风险个体安置在以社区为基础的寄宿教养项目中,通常会对累犯产生最小或医源性影响。通过暴露于高风险项目参与者而造成的污染是一种用于解释这些影响的机制。本研究对这一现象进行了实证研究。方法采用一系列生存模型对2005年至2011年从某州监狱释放的低风险假释犯的数据进行检验(n = 3862)来评估居住社区项目参与对累犯的影响。参加项目时接触高风险人群的每日比率是为项目参与者的子集建模的(n = 202),以评估在项目完成后18个月内对失败时间的影响。结果对于低风险假释的人来说,参与项目会使失败的风险增加约66%。接触高危人群对累犯没有显著影响。结论目前的研究与过去的工作一致,表明政策制定者和从业者应该注意通过社区项目治疗低风险人群可能产生的医源性或最小的累犯影响。产生这些影响的机制需要进一步探索。应特别注意项目是否会破坏低风险人群生活中的亲社会方面。
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引用次数: 1
Firearm Dealers and Local Gun Violence: A Street Network Analysis of Shootings and Concentrated Disadvantage in Atlanta 枪支经销商和地方枪支暴力:亚特兰大枪击事件和集中劣势的街头网络分析
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-02-04 DOI: 10.1177/00224278221077626
Daniel C. Semenza, Elizabeth Griffiths, Jie Xu, R. Stansfield
Objectives Examine the spatial relationship between firearm dealers and shootings in Atlanta. Methods We combine data from the Atlanta Police Department (APD), the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), and the American Community Survey (ACS) to conduct a street network analysis from 2016 through 2018. We employ the Network Cross K Function to assess whether firearm dealers attract shootings in the city. We examine whether this spatial relationship differs by level of concentrated disadvantage in neighborhoods. Results Without consideration of concentrated neighborhood disadvantage, firearm dealers and shootings are spatially unrelated to one another. Tract-level disadvantage influences the relationship between firearm dealers and shootings wherein dealers significantly attract shootings in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Conversely, shootings are located further from gun stores in non-disadvantaged communities. Shootings related to manslaughter and assault, but not robbery, are spatially associated with firearm dealers in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Conclusions Building on prior research regarding firearm dealers and gun violence, we find support for an attraction effect in disadvantaged neighborhoods for certain types of shootings. We contextualize these findings within a broader discussion of how firearm dealers contribute to the complex ecology of local gun violence. This is important in light of federal policies and investments related to the prevention of and response to gun crime.
目的研究亚特兰大枪支经销商与枪击事件之间的空间关系。方法我们结合来自亚特兰大警察局(APD),酒精,烟草,火器和爆炸物局(ATF)和美国社区调查(ACS)的数据,从2016年到2018年进行街道网络分析。我们使用网络交叉K函数来评估枪支经销商是否吸引了城市中的枪击事件。我们研究了这种空间关系是否因社区集中劣势的程度而不同。结果在不考虑集中邻里不利因素的情况下,枪支经销商与枪击事件在空间上互不相关。渠道层面的劣势影响枪支经销商与枪击事件的关系,枪支经销商显著吸引弱势社区的枪击事件。相反,在非弱势社区,枪击事件发生在距离枪支商店更远的地方。与过失杀人和袭击有关的枪击事件,但与抢劫无关,在空间上与弱势社区的枪支经销商有关。基于先前关于枪支经销商和枪支暴力的研究,我们发现在弱势社区对某些类型的枪击事件具有吸引力效应。我们将这些发现置于更广泛的讨论中,讨论枪支经销商如何促成当地枪支暴力的复杂生态。鉴于与预防和应对枪支犯罪有关的联邦政策和投资,这一点很重要。
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引用次数: 3
Cumulative Racial and Ethnic Disparities Along the School-to-Prison Pipeline 从学校到监狱的累积种族和民族差异
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1177/00224278211070501
Kelly Welch, Peter S. Lehmann, Cecilia Chouhy, Ted Chiricos
Objectives Using the cumulative disadvantage theoretical framework, the current study explores whether school suspension and expulsion provide an indirect path through which race and ethnicity affect the likelihood of experiencing arrest, any incarceration, and long-term incarceration in adulthood. Methods To address these issues, we use data from Waves I, II, and IV of the Add Health survey (N = 14,484), and we employ generalized multilevel structural equation models and parametric regression methods using counterfactual definitions to estimate direct and indirect pathways. Results We observe that Black (but not Latinx) individuals are consistently more likely than White persons to experience exclusionary school discipline and criminal justice involvement. However, we find a path through which race and Latinx ethnicity indirectly affect the odds of adulthood arrest and incarceration through school discipline. Conclusions Disparate exposure to school suspension and expulsion experienced by minority youth contributes to racial and ethnic inequalities in justice system involvement. By examining indirect paths to multiple criminal justice consequences along a continuum of punitiveness, this study shows how discipline amplifies cumulative disadvantage during adulthood for Black and, to a lesser extent, Latinx individuals who are disproportionately funneled through the “school-to-prison pipeline.”
目的利用累积劣势理论框架,本研究探讨了停学和开除是否提供了一种间接途径,种族和族裔通过这种途径影响成年后被捕、任何监禁和长期监禁的可能性。方法为了解决这些问题,我们使用了Add Health调查(N = 14484),并且我们使用广义多级结构方程模型和使用反事实定义的参数回归方法来估计直接和间接途径。结果我们观察到,黑人(但不是拉丁裔)始终比白人更有可能经历排斥性的学校纪律和刑事司法介入。然而,我们发现了一条途径,种族和拉丁裔通过学校纪律间接影响成年后被捕和监禁的几率。结论少数民族青年经历的不同程度的停学和开除导致了司法系统参与中的种族和族裔不平等。这项研究通过考察在一系列惩罚中产生多种刑事司法后果的间接途径,表明了纪律如何放大黑人成年后的累积劣势,在较小程度上,拉丁裔个人通过“从学校到监狱的管道”被不成比例地输送
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引用次数: 7
Gender, Life Domains, and Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration: A Partial Test of Agnew’s General Theory of Crime and Delinquency 性别、生活领域与亲密伴侣暴力行为——对阿格纽犯罪理论的部分检验
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-01-05 DOI: 10.1177/00224278211048946
Fawn T. Ngo, Egbert Zavala, A. Piquero
Objectives We assess the proposed mechanisms outlined in Agnew’s General Theory of Crime and Delinquency about gender differences in crime and deviance (gender differences are due to differences between males and females in their standing on the life domains or differences in the effect of the life domains on the phenomenon among males and females) in accounting for sex differences in intimate partner violence (IPV) among a sample of young adults. Methods Drawing data from the International Dating Violence Study (IDVS) and employing the negative binomial regression method, we examined the effects of six self-domains, four family domains, one school/work domain, and one peer domain measures on IPV. Results Although males reported a higher frequency across all five life domains compared to females, the number of life domain variables that were significantly related to IPV among females was greater than the number among males. Further, the effects of the life domain variables on IPV were different for males and females with the peer variable (criminal peers) exhibiting the greatest effect on IPV among males and the self-domain (anger issues) demonstrating the greatest effect on IPV among females. Conclusions Agnew’s theory is well suited to assess sex differences in IPV.
目的我们评估了阿格纽《犯罪与犯罪通论》中提出的关于犯罪和越轨行为中性别差异的机制(性别差异是由于男性和女性在生活领域的地位差异或生活领域对男性和女性现象的影响差异),以解释亲密行为中的性别差异年轻人样本中的伴侣暴力(IPV)。方法利用国际约会暴力研究(IDVS)的数据,采用负二项回归方法,研究了六个自我领域、四个家庭领域、一个学校/工作领域和一个同伴领域对IPV的影响。结果尽管与女性相比,男性在所有五个生活领域的频率都更高,但女性中与IPV显著相关的生活领域变量的数量大于男性。此外,生活领域变量对IPV的影响在男性和女性中是不同的,同伴变量(犯罪同伴)在男性中对IPV影响最大,自我领域(愤怒问题)在女性中对IPV影响最大。结论Agnew理论适用于IPV的性别差异评估。
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引用次数: 3
Situational Peer Dynamics and Crime Decisions 情境同伴动态和犯罪决策
IF 3.2 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-01-05 DOI: 10.1177/00224278211070498
Tim Barnum, Greg Pogarsky
Objectives To investigate how peer dynamics, specifically interpersonal conversations between a potential offender and a peer, contemporaneous with a crime opportunity, influence perceptions of sanction certainty and social costs. Methods Data are analyzed from randomized experiments and hypothetical vignettes embedded within a nationwide, online survey (n = 1,275). Vignettes were presented for three distinct crime opportunities, drunk driving, fighting, and insurance fraud. Results The findings suggest that respondents adjust two core decision-making perceptions—the perceived certainty of being legally sanctioned and perceived social costs such as stigma or embarrassment—in accord with the content of verbal communications from peers. There is evidence for this both between and within subjects. Conclusions The study underscores the importance of accounting for both physical and social features of the situational context for crime in models of offender decision making. Implications are drawn regarding the social milieu for offender decision making, and the broader criminological relevance of choice principles.
目的调查同伴动态,特别是潜在罪犯与同伴之间的人际对话,在犯罪机会发生的同时,如何影响对制裁确定性和社会成本的看法。方法数据分析来自随机实验和全国性在线调查(n = 1,275)中的假设小插曲。小插曲展示了三种不同的犯罪机会:酒后驾车、打架和保险欺诈。结果调查结果表明,被调查者根据同伴口头交流的内容调整了两种核心决策感知——被法律制裁的确定性感知和耻辱或尴尬等社会成本感知。研究对象之间和内部都有证据证明这一点。结论本研究强调了在罪犯决策模型中考虑犯罪情境的物理和社会特征的重要性。影响是关于罪犯决策的社会环境,以及选择原则的更广泛的犯罪学相关性。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency
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