Pub Date : 2023-09-21DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01862-8
Obiora Cornelius Collins, Kevin Jan Duffy
Abstract Monkeypox (Mpox) is a serious illness that affects both humans and animals. Two modelling approaches are considered here to understand the transmission dynamics of mpox. A deterministic model that incorporates the major factors that influence mpox is developed and analysed. However, as more than one group can be infected by mpox, humans and animals, the results of a deterministic model do not always hold when at the outset the number of people infected is small. Thus, a stochastic model based on the assumptions of the deterministic model is also developed and analysed. By fitting the deterministic model to data on the 2022 mpox outbreak in Nigeria, essential parameters related to the mpox dynamics are estimated. Using these parameters the basic reproduction number is calculated as $$mathcal {R}_0 = 1.7$$ R0=1.7 and, as this is greater than unity, implies that without control mpox is likely to remain endemic in Nigeria. Consideration of the basic reproduction number for the different transmission routes and parameter sensitivity analyses indicate the importance of animals in the overall prevalence of the disease. Also, numerical simulations are used and show that controls of disease transmission from animals to humans and animals to animals are the most effective. The results of the stochastic model, where the initial number of infections is small, show that the disease can be eradicated in some situations where $$mathcal {R}_0 > 1$$ R0>1 . However, the probabilities of this occurring for the Nigerian epidemic are low. Overall, our model formulations could be useful for making decisions on the effective management of mpox outbreaks in any endemic area.
猴痘是一种影响人和动物的严重疾病。这里考虑了两种建模方法来理解mpox的传播动力学。开发并分析了一个包含影响mpox的主要因素的确定性模型。然而，由于不止一个群体(人类和动物)可能被麻疹感染，因此，当开始感染人数很少时，确定性模型的结果并不总是成立。因此，基于确定性模型假设的随机模型也被开发和分析。通过将确定性模型拟合到尼日利亚2022年麻疹暴发的数据，估计了与麻疹动态相关的基本参数。利用这些参数，计算出的基本繁殖数为$$mathcal {R}_0 = 1.7$$ R 0 = 1.7，由于这大于1，意味着如果不加以控制，麻疹很可能在尼日利亚继续流行。考虑到不同传播途径的基本繁殖数和参数敏感性分析，表明动物在疾病总体流行中的重要性。此外，数值模拟表明，控制疾病从动物传播给人类和动物传播给动物是最有效的。随机模型的结果表明，在初始感染人数很少的情况下，该疾病可以在以下情况下被根除$$mathcal {R}_0 > 1$$ R 0 ＆gt;1。然而，尼日利亚疫情发生这种情况的可能性很低。总的来说，我们的模型公式可用于在任何流行地区就有效管理痘暴发作出决策。
{"title":"Dynamics and control of mpox disease using two modelling approaches","authors":"Obiora Cornelius Collins, Kevin Jan Duffy","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01862-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01862-8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Monkeypox (Mpox) is a serious illness that affects both humans and animals. Two modelling approaches are considered here to understand the transmission dynamics of mpox. A deterministic model that incorporates the major factors that influence mpox is developed and analysed. However, as more than one group can be infected by mpox, humans and animals, the results of a deterministic model do not always hold when at the outset the number of people infected is small. Thus, a stochastic model based on the assumptions of the deterministic model is also developed and analysed. By fitting the deterministic model to data on the 2022 mpox outbreak in Nigeria, essential parameters related to the mpox dynamics are estimated. Using these parameters the basic reproduction number is calculated as $$mathcal {R}_0 = 1.7$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1.7</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> and, as this is greater than unity, implies that without control mpox is likely to remain endemic in Nigeria. Consideration of the basic reproduction number for the different transmission routes and parameter sensitivity analyses indicate the importance of animals in the overall prevalence of the disease. Also, numerical simulations are used and show that controls of disease transmission from animals to humans and animals to animals are the most effective. The results of the stochastic model, where the initial number of infections is small, show that the disease can be eradicated in some situations where $$mathcal {R}_0 > 1$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>></mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> . However, the probabilities of this occurring for the Nigerian epidemic are low. Overall, our model formulations could be useful for making decisions on the effective management of mpox outbreaks in any endemic area.","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136130532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-19DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01861-9
Naveed Anjum, Sohail Iqbal, Norio Tanaka
{"title":"Impact of floating vegetation island on velocity distribution in open channel flow","authors":"Naveed Anjum, Sohail Iqbal, Norio Tanaka","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01861-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01861-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135011409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Temporal dynamics of glacier retreat and its relationship with local climate in Cordillera Apolobamba, Peru","authors":"Wilber Laqui, Ricardo Zubieta, Yony Laqui-Vilca, Elmer Calizaya, César Laqui-Vilca","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01865-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01865-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135061123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-15DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01855-7
Gauri Deshpande, Anargha Amit Dhorde
{"title":"Validating the Curve Number estimation approaches: A case study of an urbanizing watershed from Western Maharashtra, India","authors":"Gauri Deshpande, Anargha Amit Dhorde","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01855-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01855-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135436800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stability analysis of multiple unsupported excavations in cohesive-frictional soils using finite element limit analysis (FELA) and an artificial neural network (ANN)","authors":"Kittiphan Yoonirundorn, Teerapong Senjuntichai, Suraparb Keawsawasvong, Chayut Ngamkhanong, Anil C. Wijeyewickrema","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01857-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01857-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136107465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01854-8
Gauri Agrawal, A. K. Agrawal, Joydip Dhar, A. K. Misra
{"title":"Modeling the impact of cloud seeding to rescind the effect of atmospheric pollutants on natural rainfall","authors":"Gauri Agrawal, A. K. Agrawal, Joydip Dhar, A. K. Misra","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01854-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01854-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44149390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-08DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01852-w
José Augusto Ferreira Neto, David Mendes, José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, Monica Cristina Damião Mendes
{"title":"Modeling on the trajectory and impacts of tropical cyclones highlighting the Hurricane Katrina 2005","authors":"José Augusto Ferreira Neto, David Mendes, José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, Monica Cristina Damião Mendes","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01852-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01852-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41614162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mapping of current and future soil erosion risk in a semi-arid context (haouz plain - Marrakech) based on CMIP6 climate models, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and RUSLE","authors":"Youssef Bammou, Brahim Benzougagh, Abdelkrim Bensaid, Brahim Igmoullan, Ayad M. Fadhil Al-Quraishi","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01845-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01845-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46995517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-07DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01849-5
Sirvan Moradi, Ali Aalianvari, Abbas Aghajani Bazzazi
{"title":"An Efficient Experimental Model to Estimate the Performance of the Raise Borer Drilling Machine Using Linear and Nonlinear Regression Approaches in the Azad Dam in Iran","authors":"Sirvan Moradi, Ali Aalianvari, Abbas Aghajani Bazzazi","doi":"10.1007/s40808-023-01849-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01849-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51444,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Earth Systems and Environment","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49571023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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