Objectives: To compare the observed and forecasted crime trends in Barcelona, using crime statistics from January 2018 to March 2021.
Methods: We trained (seasonal) auto-regressive integrated moving average modelling (95% confidence intervals) using daily recorded crimes from January 2018 to February 2020. These models were then used to forecast crime data from March 2020 to March 2021 across four periods (lockdown, summer, fall and winter). Crime data were organized into two categories: property (burglary, theft) and violent crimes (robbery, assault, domestic violence and sexual offenses [rape, assault or abuse]).
Results: Overall, crime levels for property and violent crimes during lockdown declined sharply from the forecasted levels. Theft, burglary, assault, robbery and sexual offenses exhibited general decreases throughout the study period, with the same sharp declines during the lockdown, progressive recovery in the summer, and steady or slight reductions from fall to March 2021. Only domestic violence differed, reaching the forecasted levels for all periods and surpassing the forecast for summer 2020.
Conclusions: Our findings show how the pandemic has affected mid-term crime trends. They help to place the measures applied in the last year into context and to determine the most suitable policies to reduce crime during societal change.
The advent of COVID-19 prompted the enforced isolation of elderly and vulnerable populations around the world, for their own safety. For people in prison, these restrictions risked compounding the isolation and harm they experienced. At the same time, the pandemic created barriers to prison oversight when it was most needed to ensure that the state upheld the rights and wellbeing of those in custody. This article reports findings from a unique collaboration in Ireland between the Office of the Inspector of Prisons - a national prison oversight body - and academic criminologists. Early in the pandemic, they cooperated to hear the voices of people 'cocooning' - isolated because of their advanced age or a medical vulnerability - in Irish prisons by providing journals to this cohort, analysing the data, and encouraging the Irish Prison Service to change practices accordingly. The findings indicated that 'cocooners' were initially ambivalent about these new restrictions, both experiencing them as a punishment akin to solitary confinement, and understanding the goal of protection. As time passed, however, participants reported a drastic impact on their mental and physical health, and implications for their (already limited) agency and relationships with others, experienced more or less severely depending on staff and management practices. The paper also discusses the implications for prison practices during and following the pandemic, understanding isolation in the penological context, and collaboration between prison oversight bodies and academics.