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Examining Parent Criminal History as a Predictor of Recidivism From a Life-course Perspective: Testing for Age-differing Salience in Effects 从生命历程的角度考察父母犯罪史作为再犯的预测因子:年龄差异效应的检验
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09780-w
Thomas Wojciechowski

Biosocial research has examined intergenerational transmission of criminality and genetic explanations underpinning the link between parent and offspring criminality. Less research has examined parent criminal history as a predictor of offspring recidivism risk and the limited research on this topic has yielded mixed findings. Further, there is a dearth of research that has examined potential age-graded differences in salience of this relationship. A positive interaction between age and parent criminal history for predicting recidivism may then be indicative of evidence of intergenerational transmission helping to explain divergence between adolescence-limited and chronic offenders. The Pathways to Desistance data were analyzed. Mixed effects modeling was used to test for direct and interactive effects for predicting re-offending frequency. Results indicated that having a parent with a history of being arrested/jailed was associated with increased re-offending frequency. A significant positive interaction between age and parent criminal history was also observed. Findings indicated that identification of justice-involved youth with parents who similarly have a criminal history are at-risk for recidivism. Prioritizing youth who are exiting adolescence treatment may help to reduce recidivism in particular.

生物社会研究已经检查了犯罪的代际传递和遗传解释,支持父母和后代犯罪之间的联系。很少有研究将父母的犯罪史作为后代再犯风险的预测因素,而且对这一主题的有限研究得出了不同的结果。此外,关于这种关系的显著性的潜在年龄分级差异的研究也很缺乏。年龄和父母犯罪史之间的积极互动可以预测再犯,这可能是代际传递的证据,有助于解释青少年罪犯和慢性罪犯之间的差异。分析了阻力通路数据。混合效应模型用于测试预测再犯频率的直接和交互效应。结果表明,父母有被逮捕或监禁的历史与再次犯罪的频率增加有关。年龄与父母犯罪史之间也存在显著的正相关关系。研究结果表明,父母有类似犯罪史的青少年有再犯的风险。优先考虑正在退出青少年治疗的青少年可能特别有助于减少再犯。
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引用次数: 0
Do Community Views of Local Police Agencies Change During “Crises of Legitimacy”? Results of a Multi-wave Random Sample Community Survey in a Large Suburban Jurisdiction 社区对地方警察机构的看法在“合法性危机”中发生了变化吗?某大型郊区多波随机抽样社区调查结果
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09777-5
Cynthia Lum, Christopher S. Koper, Hailey Khatchatourian

George Floyd’s murder by a Minneapolis Police Department officer on May 25, 2020, was arguably one of the most impactful events in modern policing in the United States. However, several controversial and highly publicized use-of-force events preceded it during the 2010s, leading to this entire period being labeled a “crisis of legitimacy” or “reckoning” for the police. Nationally, perceptions of the police declined during this period, especially after Floyd’s death, prompting a great deal of debate, protest, and discussion about police reform (including arguments about defunding the police). However, a great deal of variation exists in these perceptions at the local level. This study presents a rare insight into this issue, pooling two random-sample household mail surveys that researchers collected in 2015 and 2021 in a large urban-suburban county. It seeks to determine whether changes in specific measures of perceived police legitimacy and effectiveness found in national-level polls were also found in this jurisdiction, and more specifically, across different racial groups. Although this racially and ethnically diverse county is also a progressive Democratic stronghold, the results suggest that local views about police—even when disaggregated by race—may not align with national perspectives or events as expected, which, in turn, may impact support for police reforms at the local and national levels.

2020年5月25日,乔治·弗洛伊德被明尼阿波利斯警察局的一名警官谋杀,可以说是美国现代警务中最具影响力的事件之一。然而,在此之前的2010年代,发生了几起备受争议和高度宣传的使用武力事件,导致这整个时期被贴上了警察“合法性危机”或“清算”的标签。在全国范围内,对警察的看法在这一时期有所下降,特别是在弗洛伊德去世后,引发了大量关于警察改革的辩论、抗议和讨论(包括关于削减警察资金的争论)。然而,在地方一级,这些看法存在很大差异。这项研究对这个问题提出了罕见的见解,汇集了研究人员于2015年和2021年在一个大城市-郊区县收集的两次随机样本家庭邮件调查。它试图确定在国家一级民意调查中发现的感知警察合法性和有效性的具体措施的变化是否也在该司法管辖区发现,更具体地说,在不同种族群体中也发现。尽管这个种族和民族多元化的县也是进步的民主党据点,但结果表明,当地对警察的看法——即使按种族分类——可能与预期的国家观点或事件不一致,这反过来可能影响地方和国家层面对警察改革的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Law Enforcement Agency Practices and Policies for the Investigation of Child Sex Trafficking: Are Agencies Using Victim-Centered Approaches? 执法机构调查儿童性交易的做法和政策:机构是否使用以受害者为中心的方法?
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09776-6
Kimberly J. Mitchell, Jennifer E. O’Brien, Lisa M. Jones, Alli Puchlopek-Adams

Over the past decade, efforts have been made to reform the way in which law enforcement responds to child sex trafficking (CST). Law enforcement agencies are being urged or required to use victim-centered approaches that provide exploited youth with support and services. However, researchers have yet to empirically examine law enforcement’s recognition of CST at the agency-level, their arrest practices, or the services that are being offered to CST victims. We have little information about the utilization and effectiveness of various law enforcement agency policies, practices and training programs related to CST. The National Law Enforcement Agency Child Sex Trafficking (LEA-CST) Study aimed to address these gaps through a national survey of law enforcement agencies around the U.S. The current study reports on mail survey data collected from a sample of 1,306 agencies that provided feedback on the use of up to nine victim-centered approaches to CST at their agency. Data were analyzed along with information about whether their agency investigated at least one case of CST in the year 2021. Almost all agencies (97.5%) said they used or had access to at least one victim-centered approach to CST investigations, with larger agencies reporting a greater number of approaches. Two policies were significantly related to a greater likelihood of investigating at least one case of CST in 2021: Access to a CST-specific task force and access to a CST-specific victim service agency. Findings document a growing orientation to these cases by law enforcement that recognizes youth victimization, with innovative approaches to identification and support. Community collaboration appears to be critical to helping to identify, support and provide justice to CST victims.

Research Summary This study examined law enforcement’s recognition of CST at the agency-level, their arrest practices, and the services that are being offered to CST victims. Among 1,306 agencies across the United States, almost all (97.5%) said they used or had access to at least one victim-centered approach to CST investigations, with larger agencies reporting a greater number of approaches. Two policies were significantly related to a greater likelihood of investigating at least one CST case in 2021: Access to a CST-specific task force and access to a CST-specific victim service agency.

Policy Implications Findings from the current study underscore the importance of victim-centered approaches to CST that feature connections and collaborations across communities. These collaborations champion the wellness of youth who have experienced this unique and egregious form of sexual victimization while simultaneously allowing for criminal investigations to proceed, ideally with minimal re-traumatization of the victim.

在过去十年中,为改革执法部门应对儿童性交易的方式作出了努力。正在敦促或要求执法机构采用以受害者为中心的方法,为受剥削青年提供支持和服务。然而,研究人员尚未对执法部门在机构层面上对CST的认识、他们的逮捕做法或向CST受害者提供的服务进行实证研究。我们对与CST相关的各种执法机构政策、实践和培训计划的利用和有效性知之甚少。国家执法机构儿童性贩运(LEA-CST)研究旨在通过对美国各地执法机构的全国调查来解决这些差距。目前的研究报告是从1,306个机构的样本中收集的邮件调查数据,这些机构提供了关于在其机构使用多达九种以受害者为中心的儿童性贩运方法的反馈。对数据进行了分析,并提供了有关其机构在2021年是否调查了至少一起CST病例的信息。几乎所有机构(97.5%)表示,他们至少使用或能够接触到一种以受害者为中心的方法来进行CST调查,规模较大的机构报告的方法数量更多。有两项政策与2021年调查至少一起CST案件的可能性有很大关系:加入专门针对CST的工作队和加入专门针对CST的受害者服务机构。调查结果表明,执法部门越来越重视这些案件,承认青少年受害,并采用创新的方法进行识别和支持。社区合作似乎对帮助查明、支持和为CST受害者伸张正义至关重要。本研究审查了执法部门在机构一级对科技类犯罪的认识、他们的逮捕做法以及向科技类犯罪受害者提供的服务。在全美1306家机构中,几乎所有机构(97.5%)都表示,他们至少使用或有机会使用一种以受害者为中心的方法来进行CST调查,规模较大的机构报告的方法数量更多。有两项政策与2021年调查至少一起CST案件的可能性显著相关:进入CST专门工作组和进入CST专门受害者服务机构。当前研究的结果强调了以受害者为中心的CST方法的重要性,这种方法具有跨社区联系和合作的特点。这些合作为经历过这种独特而恶劣的性侵害形式的青年的健康提供了支持,同时允许进行刑事调查,理想情况下尽量减少受害者的再次创伤。
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引用次数: 0
Increasing Police Presence: Examining Race, Ethnicity, and Perceived Neighborhood Disadvantage as Correlates of Support 增加警察的存在:将种族、民族和感知到的邻里劣势作为支持的相关因素进行研究
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09775-7
Christi Metcalfe, Qassim Bolaji

Given its empirical and public support, increasing police presence seems to be a viable preventive policy option for police agencies. However, the theoretical and empirical literature is not clear on whether this support would vary along race/ethnicity and perceived neighborhood disadvantage, which is relevant given that policies of this kind would likely have a greater impact on disadvantaged communities of color. Using survey data from a national sample, we found that racial and ethnic identity were unrelated to support for increased police presence, while perceived neighborhood disorder was related to greater support for police presence. We also found that neighborhood disorder, social cohesion, and informal social control were indirectly related to support for increased police presence through perceptions of police legitimacy and fear of crime, demonstrating some evidence of the overpolicing-underpolicing paradox in disadvantaged communities. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.

鉴于经验和公众的支持,增加警力似乎是警察机构可行的预防性政策选择。然而,理论和实证文献并不清楚这种支持是否会因种族/民族和感知到的邻里劣势而有所不同,这一点很重要,因为此类政策可能会对有色人种的弱势社区产生更大的影响。利用全国抽样调查数据,我们发现种族和民族身份与支持增加警力无关,而认为邻里关系混乱与支持增加警力有关。我们还发现,邻里失序、社会凝聚力和非正式社会控制通过对警察合法性的认知和对犯罪的恐惧,与支持增加警力间接相关,这在一定程度上证明了弱势社区中警力过剩-警力不足的悖论。本文讨论了这些研究结果对政策的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Federal Drug Sentencing and the Overdose Epidemic 联邦毒品判决与用药过量流行病
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09773-9
Ben Feldmeyer, Bryan Holmes, Diana Sun

Research examining how federal courts have responded to the 21st century overdose crisis is limited, and even less is known about how district exposure to overdoses has shaped federal drug sentences. The current study examines how drug sentence lengths are contextualized by district-level overdose death rates across both substance type and race/ethnicity using federal sentencing data, Centers for Disease Control overdose mortality data, and other data on district social and legal characteristics for the 2015-2020 period. Findings reveal that district overdose death rates (especially involving minorities) are associated with slightly shorter drug sentences, net of other factors. In addition, Black-White and Hispanic-White sentence length gaps in drug cases declined in districts with more overdose deaths in part due to higher White sentence lengths, but mostly because minority sentences became shorter as district overdose mortality rates increased. These results suggest that exposure to the overdose crisis has not resulted in greater punitiveness in drug sentence lengths, and if anything, has been tied to leniency especially for minorities. Implications of these results for research on the 21st century overdose crisis, federal court responses to this crisis (especially across race/ethnicity), and for contextual effects in sentencing are discussed.

有关联邦法院如何应对 21 世纪用药过量危机的研究十分有限,而有关地区用药过量情况如何影响联邦毒品判决的研究更是少之又少。本研究利用 2015-2020 年期间的联邦判决数据、美国疾病控制中心过量用药死亡率数据以及其他有关地区社会和法律特征的数据,研究了毒品刑期是如何根据地区级过量用药死亡率(包括药物类型和种族/族裔)来确定的。研究结果显示,除去其他因素,地区吸毒过量死亡率(尤其是涉及少数族裔的死亡率)与稍短的毒品刑期有关。此外,在吸毒过量死亡人数较多的地区,黑人-白人和西班牙裔-白人毒品案件的刑期差距有所缩小,部分原因是白人的刑期较长,但主要原因是随着地区吸毒过量死亡率的上升,少数族裔的刑期也变短了。这些结果表明,用药过量危机并没有导致毒品刑期的惩罚性增强,反而与宽大处理有关,尤其是对少数民族。本文讨论了这些结果对 21 世纪用药过量危机研究、联邦法院对这一危机的反应(尤其是不同种族/族裔的反应)以及量刑环境效应的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Safer or Endangered at Home?: An Examination of Neighborhood Effects on Family Violence Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Safer-at-Home Order 在家更安全还是更危险?在 COVID-19 "加强家庭安全令 "颁布之前、期间和之后,研究邻里关系对家庭暴力的影响
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09772-w
Michelle N. Harris, Rebecca H. Konkel

Research has begun to document the impact of COVID-19, and corresponding restrictions associated with the pandemic, to several unintended consequences including increased rates of family violence. Given these findings, there have been calls for research to understand predictors of family violence, and how such predictors may shift during differing periods of the pandemic. Rooted in the family stress model and social disorganization theory, this study used call for service data from two police departments located in the Midwest of the United States, to examine whether the relationship between sociostructural indices on the number of family violence incidents varied in the times before, during, and after COVID-19 Safer-at-Home orders. Based on a series of negative binomial regression models, results show that the association between neighborhood (i.e., Census block group) concentrated poverty, the percentage of the population between 15 and 24 years of age, and the percentage of the population that identify as male on family violence was amplified during and/or after the adoption of the Safer-at-Home order. Results also indicated that the Safer-at-Home order eradicated the once significant effect of residential mobility and family violence incidents. Lastly, although neighborhoods located within the more populous and metropolitan city experienced fewer family violence incidents, compared to the mixed rural-suburban city, the gap in the number of incidents per neighborhood decreased in the times following the enactment of the Safer-at-Home order. Based on these findings, proactive and reactive policies regarding resource dissemination and increasing neighboring activities are discussed.

研究已开始记录 COVID-19 的影响,以及与大流行病相关的相应限制,造成了一些意想不到的后果,包括家庭暴力发生率的上升。鉴于这些发现,人们呼吁开展研究,以了解家庭暴力的预测因素,以及这些预测因素在大流行病的不同时期会如何变化。本研究以家庭压力模型和社会无组织理论为基础,利用美国中西部两个警察局的服务呼叫数据,研究在 COVID-19 "加强家庭安全 "命令发布之前、期间和之后,社会结构指数与家庭暴力事件数量之间的关系是否会发生变化。基于一系列负二项回归模型,结果表明,在通过 "加强家庭安全令 "期间和/或之后,邻里(即人口普查街区组)集中贫困、15 至 24 岁人口比例和男性人口比例与家庭暴力之间的关联被放大。结果还表明,"加强居家安全令 "消除了居住流动性和家庭暴力事件曾经产生的重大影响。最后,虽然人口较多的大都市中的居民区发生的家庭暴力事件要少于城乡结合部的居民区,但在 "加强居家安全令 "颁布后,每个居民区发生暴力事件的数量差距有所缩小。基于这些发现,我们讨论了有关资源传播和增加邻里活动的主动和被动政策。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in Prosecutorial Decision-Making in Response to a High-Profile Mass Shooting 应对备受瞩目的大规模枪击事件时检察决策的变化
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09774-8
Stewart J. D’Alessio, Lisa Stolzenberg, R. R. Dunlea, Besiki Luka Kutateladze

While prior studies find that media attention influences how prosecutors handle a specific case, there is a dearth of research examining the impact of media attention on prosecutors’ decision-making in less publicized criminal cases analogous to the publicized case. Using 10 years of data (January 2011 to December 2020) calibrated in monthly intervals obtained from the Broward County State Attorney’s Office and an interrupted time series research design, we investigate the effect of the Parkland mass shooting on prosecutor discretion in firearm-related cases eligible for mandatory minimum sentencing under Florida’s 10–20-Life law. Results show that while the Parkland mass shooting was not associated with the filing of firearm cases or with negotiated plea deals, it had a noteworthy effect on attenuating nolle prossed cases. Firearm defendants were also less apt to have their arrest to filing charge reduced, their arrest to disposition filing charge reduced, and their filing to dispositional charge lessened. Overall, these findings suggest that prosecutors became more punitive in their handling of firearm cases after the Parkland mass shooting.

以往的研究发现,媒体关注度会影响检察官处理具体案件的方式,但很少有研究考察媒体关注度对检察官在类似于公开案件的不太公开的刑事案件中的决策的影响。我们利用从布劳沃德县州检察官办公室获得的 10 年数据(2011 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月),以每月为间隔进行校准,并采用间断时间序列研究设计,调查了帕克兰大规模枪击案对检察官在根据佛罗里达州 10-20 无期徒刑法可判处强制性最低刑罚的枪支相关案件中的自由裁量权的影响。结果表明,虽然帕克兰大规模枪击案与枪支案件的立案或协商认罪协议并无关联,但它对减弱撤销原判案件有显著影响。枪支案件的被告从逮捕到立案的指控减少、从逮捕到处置的指控减少、从立案到处置的指控减少的可能性也更小。总体而言,这些研究结果表明,帕克兰大规模枪击案发生后,检察官在处理枪支案件时变得更具惩罚性。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking the Truth: Exploring the Impacts of Solitary Confinement on Recidivism and the Need for Mental Health Support for Individuals with Mental Illnesses 揭开真相:探索单独监禁对累犯的影响以及为精神疾病患者提供心理健康支持的必要性
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09771-x
Rachel Silverthorn, Kristen M. Zgoba

Past research shows mixed results regarding the effects of solitary confinement on individuals’ mental health and recidivism. This paper aims to add to the existing literature by examining the relationships between 1) solitary confinement and mental health, and 2) solitary confinement and recidivism for individuals with mental illnesses. Utilizing administrative data from corrections facilities in a large Southeastern state, a series of linear regressions were used to examine the effects of solitary confinement on the need for mental health services, while a logistic regression was used to examine the effects of duration of time spent in solitary confinement on recidivism. Results show that need for mental health services differed for those with and without mental illness after time spent in solitary confinement. Results also indicated that longer placements in solitary confinement were associated with need for mental health services after return to the general population. Finally, a small but significant relationship emerged between solitary confinement and recidivism showing longer stays in solitary confinement increased recidivism. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.

过去的研究显示,单独监禁对个人心理健康和累犯的影响结果不一。本文旨在通过研究 1) 单独监禁与心理健康之间的关系,以及 2) 单独监禁与精神病患者累犯之间的关系,对现有文献进行补充。利用东南部一个大州惩教机构的行政数据,我们使用了一系列线性回归来研究单独监禁对心理健康服务需求的影响,同时使用逻辑回归来研究单独监禁时间对累犯的影响。结果表明,单独监禁时间过长后,有精神疾病和没有精神疾病的人对心理健康服务的需求是不同的。结果还表明,单独监禁时间较长与回归普通人群后对心理健康服务的需求有关。最后,单独监禁和累犯之间出现了微小但重要的关系,表明单独监禁时间越长,累犯越多。本文讨论了对政策和未来研究的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Qualitative Examination of Precautionary Measures in a Virtual Reality Fear Environment 虚拟现实恐惧环境中预防措施的定性研究
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09770-y
Nicole E. Rader, Courtney Heath, David C. May, Caitlyn Gaddy, Christopher Hudson, Daniel Carruth

Americans take a myriad of safety precautions each day to prevent victimization, a costly and often time-consuming practice. Most of what we know about precautionary measures comes from the fear of crime literature. Previous studies typically examine precautionary measures in relation to fear of crime and ask respondents about behaviors they engaged in or avoided retroactively. Our research team put precautionary measures at the forefront by creating a virtual reality (VR) subway station where 105 participants entered a subway station, selected items to take with them on a train and selected a bench to wait for their train. The items included traditional precautionary measures (pepper spray, knife) and everyday items (cell phone, book, headphones, car keys). We also placed VR characters on a bench and asked participants to select a bench near or far from the characters. Participants were asked to explain their decision-making process. We learned that individuals engaged in avoidance and protective behaviors and our results found the decision-making process in the selection of these measures were complex and unique. The results of our study can help public safety agencies design public spaces so that individuals feel safer in these spaces.

美国人每天都会采取大量的安全预防措施来防止受害,这种做法既费钱又费时。我们对预防措施的了解大多来自对犯罪的恐惧文献。以往的研究通常会将预防措施与对犯罪的恐惧联系起来进行研究,并询问受访者他们从事或回避的行为。我们的研究团队通过创建一个虚拟现实(VR)地铁站,让 105 名参与者进入地铁站,选择要带上车的物品,并选择一个长凳候车,从而将预防措施放在了首位。这些物品包括传统的预防措施(辣椒喷雾、小刀)和日常用品(手机、书、耳机、车钥匙)。我们还在长凳上放置了 VR 角色,要求参与者选择离角色较近或较远的长凳。我们要求参与者解释他们的决策过程。我们了解到,个人会采取回避和保护行为,而我们的结果发现,选择这些措施的决策过程是复杂而独特的。我们的研究结果可以帮助公共安全机构设计公共场所,使人们在这些场所感到更加安全。
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引用次数: 0
Time in Crime: An Added Dimension to the Study of Crime Guns 犯罪时间:犯罪时间:犯罪枪支研究的新维度
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12103-024-09769-5
Rick Dierenfeldt, Grant Drawve, Joshua May, Ellee Jackson

A growing body of literature has explored the ‘life course’ of crime guns, with particular focus on the time between initial point of sale of firearms and their eventual recovery by police following a crime. We contend that this examination is incomplete, with limited consideration given to the period between a firearm’s first known use in a criminal offense and its recovery by police—which we refer to as time in crime. Increased understanding of this time frame is important given that crime guns are frequently recirculated among criminally involved groups and the recent finding that time in circulation following first known use in a crime is a significant predictor of multiple uses of crime guns. We add to the literature through application of negative binomial regression to a sample of 310 crime guns used in offenses in a city in the Southeastern United States to examine how neighborhood context and initial incident characteristics influence the number of days that firearms remain in circulation after their first known use in a crime. We find that increased levels of concentrated disadvantage and gang involvement during the original incident correspond with significant increases in time in crime, while increased levels of residential stability and the ability of police to identify suspects are linked with more rapid recovery of crime guns. Notably, these findings hold even after inclusion of popular time to crime covariates, including firearm quality, caliber, and status as a stolen gun.

越来越多的文献探讨了犯罪枪支的 "生命历程",尤其关注枪支从最初的销售点到犯罪后警方最终收回枪支之间的时间。我们认为,这种研究并不全面,对枪支首次用于刑事犯罪到警方收回枪支之间这段时间的考虑有限,我们将其称为犯罪时间。鉴于犯罪枪支经常在涉案群体中循环使用,而且最近的一项研究发现,在犯罪中首次使用枪支后的流通时间是犯罪枪支多次使用的重要预测因素,因此加强对这段时间的了解非常重要。我们对美国东南部某市犯罪活动中使用的 310 支犯罪枪支样本进行了负二项回归,研究了邻里环境和初始事件特征如何影响枪支在首次用于犯罪活动后的流通天数,从而对相关文献进行了补充。我们发现,在最初的事件中,集中的不利条件和帮派参与程度的增加与犯罪时间的显著增加相对应,而居住稳定性和警方识别犯罪嫌疑人的能力的增加与犯罪枪支的更快回收有关。值得注意的是,即使将枪支质量、口径和被盗枪支状态等常用的犯罪时间协变量也包括在内,这些发现仍然成立。
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American Journal of Criminal Justice
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