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Currency Mismatch in the Banking Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区银行业的货币错配
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.36095/BANXICO/DI.2017.05
Martin Tobal
Existing literature uses data based on the residence principle to proxy for currency mismatch. Nonetheless, these data are frequently not disaggregated by currency and cannot identify mismatches in the domestic market. This paper circumvents these issues by constructing a new data set on foreign currency assets and liabilities in the banking sector in Latin America and the Caribbean. The new data reveal a reduction in long foreign currency positions, with several countries taking short positions after 2006. Moreover, employing a methodology that accounts for time-varying unobservable characteristics, this reduction is shown to be partially explained by the implementation of prudential policies.
现有文献采用基于居住原则的数据来代表货币错配。然而,这些数据往往没有按货币分类,也无法识别国内市场的错配。本文通过构建拉丁美洲和加勒比地区银行部门外币资产和负债的新数据集来规避这些问题。新数据显示,外汇多头头寸减少,一些国家在2006年之后建立了空头头寸。此外,采用一种考虑时变不可观察特征的方法,这种减少可以部分地由审慎政策的实施来解释。
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引用次数: 11
Liquidity Risk in Banking : Is there Herding? 银行业流动性风险:是否存在羊群效应?
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2163547
Diana Bonfim, Moshe Kim
Banks individually optimize their liquidity risk management, often neglecting the externalities generated by their choices on the overall risk of the financial system. This is the main argument to support the regulation of liquidity risk. However, there may be incentives, related for instance to the role of the lender of last resort, for banks to optimize their choices not strictly at the individual level, but engaging instead in collective risk taking strategies, which may intensify systemic risk. In this paper we look for evidence of such herding behaviors, with an emphasis on the period preceding the global financial crisis. Herding is significant only among the largest banks, after adequately controlling for relevant endogeneity problems associated with the estimation of peer effects. This result suggests that the regulation of systemically important financial institutions may play an important role in mitigating this specific component of liquidity risk.
银行各自优化流动性风险管理,往往忽略了其选择对金融体系整体风险产生的外部性。这是支持流动性风险监管的主要论据。然而,可能存在激励机制,例如与最后贷款人的角色有关,使银行不是严格地在个人层面优化其选择,而是参与集体风险承担策略,这可能会加剧系统性风险。在本文中,我们寻找这种羊群行为的证据,并将重点放在全球金融危机之前的时期。在充分控制了与同行效应估计相关的内生性问题之后,羊群效应仅在最大的银行中是显著的。这一结果表明,对具有系统重要性的金融机构的监管可能在减轻流动性风险的这一特定组成部分方面发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 10
Aggregation Level in Stress-Testing Models 压力测试模型中的聚合水平
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.24148/wp2015-14
G. Hale, John Krainer, Erin McCarthy
We explore the question of optimal aggregation level for stress testing models when the stress test is specified in terms of aggregate macroeconomic variables, but the underlying performance data are available at a loan level. Using standard model performance measures, we ask whether it is better to formulate models at a disaggregated level (“bottom up”) and then aggregate the predictions in order to obtain portfolio loss values or is it better to work directly with aggregated models (“top down”) for portfolio loss forecasts. We study this question for a large portfolio of home equity lines of credit. We conduct model comparisons of loan-level default probability models, county-level models, aggregate portfolio-level models, and hybrid approaches based on portfolio segments such as debt-to-income (DTI) ratios, loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, and FICO risk scores. For each of these aggregation levels we choose the model that fits the data best in terms of in-sample and out-of-sample performance. We then compare winning models across all approaches. We document two main results. First, all the models considered here are capable of fitting our data when given the benefit of using the whole sample period for estimation. Second, in out-of-sample exercises, loan-level models have large forecast errors and underpredict default probability. Average out-of-sample performance is best for portfolio and county-level models. However, for portfolio level, small perturbations in model specification may result in large forecast errors, while county-level models tend to be very robust. We conclude that aggregation level is an important factor to be considered in the stress-testing model design.
我们探讨了当压力测试是根据总体宏观经济变量指定的,但潜在的性能数据是在贷款水平上可用的情况下,压力测试模型的最佳聚合水平的问题。使用标准模型性能度量,我们询问是否在分解级别(“自下而上”)制定模型,然后汇总预测以获得投资组合损失值更好,或者直接使用汇总模型(“自上而下”)进行投资组合损失预测更好。我们研究这个问题的房屋净值信贷额度的大型投资组合。我们对贷款级违约概率模型、县级模型、总投资组合级模型以及基于投资组合细分(如债务与收入(DTI)比率、贷款与价值(LTV)比率和FICO风险评分)的混合方法进行了模型比较。对于每个聚集级别,我们选择在样本内和样本外性能方面最适合数据的模型。然后,我们比较所有方法中的获胜模型。我们记录了两个主要结果。首先,这里考虑的所有模型都能够在使用整个样本周期进行估计的情况下拟合我们的数据。其次,在样本外练习中,贷款水平模型有很大的预测误差,并低估了违约概率。平均样本外表现对于投资组合和县级模型是最好的。然而,对于投资组合水平,模型规格的小扰动可能导致较大的预测误差,而县级模型往往是非常稳健的。我们得出结论,聚合水平是压力测试模型设计中需要考虑的重要因素。
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引用次数: 11
Bond vigilantes and inflation 债券义务警员和通货膨胀
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-08-01 DOI: 10.24148/WP2015-09
A. Rose, M. Spiegel
This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a local, nominal, publicly traded, longmaturity, domestic currency bond market. Domestic bond markets have an unclear effect on inflation; they present issuing governments with the opportunity to inflate away their debt obligations, but they also expose bondholders to capital losses through inflation, creating a potential anti-inflationary force. We ask whether the latter effect is apparent empirically. We use a panel of data, examining inflation before and after the introduction of a domestic bond market. Inflationtargeting countries with a bond market experience inflation at least 3 to 4 percentage points lower than those without one. This effect is economically and statistically significant; it is also insensitive to a variety of estimation strategies. In particular, we use a wide variety of political and fiscal instrumental variables to account for the potential endogeneity of domestic bond issuance. Moreover, we do not find a similar effect for indexed or foreign currency bonds.
本文探讨了通货膨胀与存在一个本地的、名义的、公开交易的、长期的国内货币债券市场之间的关系。国内债券市场对通胀的影响尚不明确;它们为发行债券的政府提供了通过通胀消除债务的机会,但也使债券持有人面临通胀带来的资本损失,从而形成了一股潜在的反通胀力量。我们要问后一种效应在经验上是否明显。我们使用了一组数据,考察了引入国内债券市场前后的通胀情况。有债券市场、实行通胀目标制的国家,其通胀率至少比没有债券市场的国家低3至4个百分点。这种效应在经济上和统计上都是显著的;它对各种估计策略也不敏感。特别是,我们使用各种各样的政治和财政工具变量来解释国内债券发行的潜在内生性。此外,我们没有发现指数化债券或外币债券有类似的效果。
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引用次数: 4
Financial Intermediation in a Global Environment 全球环境下的金融中介
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.36095/BANXICO/DI.2015.05
Victoria Nuguer
I develop a two-country DSGE model with global banks (financial intermediaries in one country lend to banks in the other country). Banks are financially constrained on how much they can borrow from households. The main goal is to obtain a framework that captures the international transmission of a financial crisis through the balance sheet of the global banks, as well as to explain the insurance mechanism of the international asset market. A negative shock to the value of the capital in one country generates a global financial crisis through the international interbank market. In this model, unconventional credit policies help to mitigate the effects of a financial disruption. The policies are carried out by the policy maker of the country directly hit by the shock. Consumers of that country are better off with policy than without it, while consumers from the other country are worse off.
我用全球银行开发了一个两国DSGE模型(一个国家的金融中介机构向另一个国家的银行贷款)。银行能从家庭借贷的资金受到限制。主要目标是获得一个框架,通过全球银行的资产负债表捕捉金融危机的国际传播,以及解释国际资产市场的保险机制。一国资本价值受到负面冲击,就会通过国际银行间市场引发全球金融危机。在这个模型中,非常规信贷政策有助于减轻金融混乱的影响。这些政策是由直接受到冲击的国家的政策制定者执行的。有政策的国家的消费者比没有政策的国家的消费者富裕,而另一个国家的消费者则更糟糕。
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引用次数: 29
Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks 系统性风险与银行偿付能力-流动性关系
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2346606
Diane Pierret
This paper highlights the empirical interaction between solvency and liquidity risks of banks that make them particularly vulnerable to an aggregate crisis. I find that banks lose their access to short-term funding when markets expect they will be insolvent in a crisis. Conversely, the expected amount of capital a bank should raise to remain solvent in a crisis (its capital shortfall) increases when the bank holds more short-term debt (has a larger exposure to funding liquidity risk). This solvency-liquidity nexus is found to be strong under many robustness checks and to contain useful information for forecasting the short-term balance sheet of banks. The results suggest that the solvency-liquidity interaction should be accounted for when designing liquidity and capital requirements, in contrast to Basel III regulation where solvency and liquidity risks are treated separately.
本文强调了银行偿付能力和流动性风险之间的经验交互作用,这使得它们特别容易受到总体危机的影响。我发现,当市场预计银行将在危机中破产时,它们就无法获得短期融资。相反,当银行持有更多的短期债务(面临更大的资金流动性风险)时,银行为在危机中保持偿付能力而应筹集的预期资本(其资本缺口)就会增加。在许多稳健性检查下,发现这种偿付能力-流动性关系很强,并且包含预测银行短期资产负债表的有用信息。结果表明,在设计流动性和资本要求时,应考虑偿付能力-流动性相互作用,而不是单独处理偿付能力和流动性风险的巴塞尔III监管。
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引用次数: 68
The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Earnings: A Primer and Projections 美联储的资产负债表和收益:入门和预测
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.17016/feds.2012.56
Seth B. Carpenter, J. Ihrig, Elizabeth C. Klee, Daniel Quinn, A. Boote
Over the past few years, the Federal Reserve’s use of unconventional monetary policy tools has received a vast amount of public attention, from discussing how these asset purchases have put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and thus supported economic activity to evaluating the implications for Federal Reserve remittances to the Treasury and the effect on monetary and fiscal policy. As the economic recovery has gained some momentum of late, the focus has turned to issues associated with the normalization of monetary policy. In this paper, we begin by providing a primer for the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and income statement. With that foundation in place, we then consider a variety of scenarios consistent with statements by Federal Reserve officials about how the FOMC will normalize policy, including whether to sell mortgage-backed securities, whether to change the composition of Federal Reserve liabilities, and the timing of lifting the federal funds rate off from the zero lower bound. In each of these scenarios, we discuss the implications of these normalization policies on the size and composition of Federal Reserve asset and liability holdings and on remittances of earnings to the Treasury, which capture the interest rate risk of these normalization policies. We show that under a baseline normalization strategy described by policymakers, the balance sheet should slowly return to a more normal composition and size, while remittances should remain sizable. With some alternative normalization plans, especially if faced with high interest costs, remittances could drop to zero for some time.
在过去几年中,美联储使用非常规货币政策工具受到了公众的广泛关注,从讨论这些资产购买如何对长期利率施加下行压力,从而支持经济活动,到评估美联储向财政部汇款的影响以及对货币和财政政策的影响。随着最近经济复苏的势头有所增强,焦点已转向与货币政策正常化相关的问题。在本文中,我们首先为美联储的资产负债表和损益表提供一个入门。在此基础上,我们将考虑与美联储官员关于FOMC如何使政策正常化的声明相一致的各种情景,包括是否出售抵押贷款支持证券,是否改变美联储负债的构成,以及将联邦基金利率从零利率下限上调的时机。在这些场景中,我们讨论了这些正常化政策对美联储资产和负债持有的规模和构成的影响,以及对向财政部汇款的影响,这些影响捕捉了这些正常化政策的利率风险。我们表明,在政策制定者描述的基线正常化战略下,资产负债表应缓慢恢复到更正常的构成和规模,而汇款应保持可观。通过一些替代性的正常化计划,特别是在面临高利息成本的情况下,汇款可能会在一段时间内降至零。
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引用次数: 80
Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default 具有三层违约的宏观经济模型中的资本监管
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2544607
Laurent Clerc, A. Derviz, Caterina Mendicino, Caterina Mendicino, Stéphane Moyen, Kalin Nikolov, Livio Stracca, Javier Suarez, Javier Suarez, Alexandros P. Vardoulakis
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model for the positive and normative analysis of macroprudential policies. Optimizing financial intermediaries allocate their scarce net worth together with funds raised from saving households across two lending activities, mortgage and corporate lending. For all borrowers (households, firms, and banks) external financing takes the form of debt which is subject to default risk. This “3D model” shows the interplay between three interconnected net worth channels that cause financial amplification and the distortions due to deposit insurance. We apply it to the analysis of capital regulation.
我们建立了一个动态一般均衡模型,用于宏观审慎政策的积极和规范分析。优化的金融中介机构将其稀缺的净值与从储蓄家庭筹集的资金一起分配给两种贷款活动,即抵押贷款和企业贷款。对于所有借款人(家庭、企业和银行)来说,外部融资采取的是债务形式,而债务存在违约风险。这个“3D模型”显示了导致金融放大的三个相互关联的净值渠道与存款保险造成的扭曲之间的相互作用。我们将其应用于资本监管的分析。
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引用次数: 73
Heterogeneous Bank Lending Responses to Monetary Policy: New Evidence from a Real-time Identifiation 异质性银行贷款对货币政策的反应:来自实时识别的新证据
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.24149/WP1404
John C. Bluedorn, C. Bowdler, Christoffer Koch
Heterogeneity in bank responses to monetary policy is consistent with an aggregate lending channel. However, estimates of bank responses are typically obtained using realized federal funds rate changes, which are endogenous to expected, macroeconomic fundamentals. As such, estimated heterogeneity can arise from expected fundamentals. Using an exogenous policy measure identified from narratives on FOMC intentions and real-time forecasts, we find greater heterogeneity in responses. There is a much stronger monetary policy transmission to smaller banks. The shielding of lending amongst holding companies is larger using the exogenous measure. Unlike previous research, we find that holdings of securities amplify exogenous policy transmission, while equity capital negates it. The results highlight the importance of controlling for policy endogeneity in future studies of bank lending behavior.
银行对货币政策反应的异质性与总体贷款渠道是一致的。然而,对银行反应的估计通常是使用已实现的联邦基金利率变化来获得的,这是内生的,预期的宏观经济基本面。因此,估计的异质性可以从预期的基本面中产生。使用从FOMC意图和实时预测的叙述中确定的外生政策措施,我们发现反应的异质性更大。对小银行的货币政策传导要强得多。使用外生指标,控股公司之间的贷款屏蔽作用更大。与以往的研究不同,我们发现持有证券放大了外生政策传导,而股权资本则否定了外生政策传导。研究结果强调了在未来银行贷款行为研究中控制政策内生性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
An evaluation of the generalisability and applicability of the PhysioNet electrocardiogram (ECG) repository as test cases for ECG-based biometrics 对PhysioNet心电图(ECG)存储库作为基于ECG的生物识别测试用例的通用性和适用性的评估
IF 1.3 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2012-04-13 DOI: 10.1504/IJCB.2012.046515
M. Tantawi, K. Revett, M. Tolba, A. Salem
The PhysioNet is a very popular internet-based ECG repository which provides open access to a variety of ECG datasets. The data is collected from subjects within a medical framework, with the intention of acquiring clinically relevant information from patients. Because of the convenience afforded by the internet, literally thousands of ECG records can be downloaded and used for non-medical purposes, such as biometrics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the applicability and/or suitability of the PhysioNet ECG data for deployment within biometrics. The needs and mindset of a clinician may be quite different from that of a security engineer. This paper therefore attempts to provide a preliminary examination of the PhysioNet ECG data repository along these dimensions, emphasising the need to create methodologies in the context of biometrics that not only take these considerations into account, but integrates them into the biometric methodology.
PhysioNet是一个非常流行的基于互联网的心电存储库,它提供了对各种心电数据集的开放访问。数据是从医学框架内的受试者中收集的,目的是从患者那里获得临床相关信息。由于互联网提供的便利,成千上万的心电图记录可以下载并用于非医疗目的,如生物识别。本研究的目的是评估PhysioNet心电图数据在生物识别技术中部署的适用性和/或适用性。临床医生的需求和心态可能与安全工程师大不相同。因此,本文试图沿着这些维度对PhysioNet ECG数据存储库进行初步检查,强调需要在生物识别的背景下创建方法,不仅要考虑到这些考虑因素,而且要将它们集成到生物识别方法中。
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引用次数: 15
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International Journal of Central Banking
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