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Mobilization Follies in International Relations: A Multimethod Exploration of Why Some Decision Makers Fail to Avoid War When Public Mobilization as a Bargaining Tool Fails 动员在国际关系中的愚蠢:当公共动员作为谈判工具失败时,为什么一些决策者未能避免战争的多方法探索
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-03 DOI: 10.20991/ALLAZIMUTH.477341
K. Travlos
This paper is intended to serve as a show and tell model for graduate students. Sections in parentheses and italics provide a running commentary by the author on the decisions taken throughout the paper. The goal is to permit students to follow the thinking of the researcher and see how it guided the theoretical, methodological and other decisions on content that finally made it into the paper. The paper in question explores how “public” military mobilization can be an attempt by weak actors to trigger intervention by third parties in a dispute with a stronger actor, in the hopes that the third parties will force the stronger actor to accommodate the weaker actor. This attempt is called “compellence via proxy”. In this research I explore why in reaction to failure, some weak actors are able to avoid escalation to war, while others are not. I posit that the flexibility of the decision makers of the weak actors is influenced by their ability to overhaul their winning coalition. A large-n evaluation of 68 cases of “public” mobilization, and an evaluation of six Balkan state mobilizations in the 1878-1909 era, do not support the idea that the size of the winning coalition, a part of the factors determining overhaul, has an association with war onset or its avoidance.
本文旨在为研究生提供一个展示和讲述的模型。括号和斜体中的部分提供了作者对整篇论文所做决定的连续评论。目的是让学生跟随研究人员的思路,看看它是如何指导理论、方法和其他内容的决定,最终使其成为论文。这篇论文探讨了“公共”军事动员如何成为弱势行动者在与更强大的行动者发生争端时引发第三方干预的一种尝试,希望第三方能够迫使更强大的行动者迁就更弱小的行动者。这种尝试被称为“代理强制”。在这项研究中,我探讨了为什么在对失败的反应中,一些弱者能够避免升级为战争,而另一些则不能。我认为,弱势行动者的决策者的灵活性受到他们彻底改革其获胜联盟的能力的影响。对68个“公共”动员案例的大规模评估,以及对1878-1909年间6个巴尔干国家动员的评估,都不支持这样一种观点,即作为决定改革的一部分因素,获胜联盟的规模与战争爆发或避免战争有关。
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引用次数: 0
Reflecting on the Reflectivist Approach to Qualitative Interviewing 反思定性访谈的反思主义方法
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-03 DOI: 10.20991/allazimuth.477335
Alper Kaliber
This study aims to reflect on qualitative interviewing with a particular emphasis on semi-structured interviewing (SSI), with the purpose of guiding students and young scholars of International Relations and Political Science who will use this method in their research. This study begs to differ from both radical post-positivist’s deep scepticism which makes any scientific inquiry almost impossible as well as from positivism’s unreflective, unproblematized, instrumental approach to interviewing. It proposes a reflectivist approach to qualitative interviewing that emphasizes the political nature of the interviewing process with various political, ethical and even social consequences. The reflectivist approach requires researchers to be self-critical at all times, in particular concerning their role and influence on the interview setting and the interviewee. This article proceeds as follows: It first addresses my own research on the nexus between civil society and the Kurdish question in Turkey, where SSI has been operationalized as the main research method. It then addresses the positivist and post-positivist debates on qualitative interviewing as well as the reflectivist approach that this study promotes. The article then engages in SSI in three distinct stages: pre-interview, interview and post-interview phases. Finally, the concluding part introduces some works utilising interviewing in Turkish IR and wraps up the theoretical/methodological arguments disseminated throughout the study at hand.
本研究旨在反思定性访谈,特别强调半结构化访谈(SSI),目的是指导国际关系和政治学的学生和年轻学者在他们的研究中使用这种方法。这项研究既不同于激进的后实证主义的深刻怀疑主义,这种怀疑主义使任何科学探究几乎不可能,也不同于实证主义对访谈的不反思、不成问题、工具性方法。它提出了一种反思主义的定性访谈方法,强调访谈过程的政治性质,以及各种政治、伦理甚至社会后果。反思主义方法要求研究人员在任何时候都要自我批评,特别是关于他们对访谈环境和受访者的角色和影响。本文的思路如下:首先阐述了我自己对土耳其公民社会与库尔德问题之间关系的研究,在土耳其,SSI已成为主要的研究方法。然后讨论了关于定性访谈的实证主义和后实证主义的争论,以及本研究提倡的反思主义方法。然后,本文将SSI分为三个不同的阶段:访谈前、访谈和访谈后阶段。最后,结语部分介绍了在土耳其国际关系中使用访谈的一些作品,并总结了在整个研究中传播的理论/方法论点。
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引用次数: 2
Discourse Analysis: Strengths and Shortcomings 语篇分析:优势与不足
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-02 DOI: 10.20991/ALLAZIMUTH.477300
S. Aydın-Düzgit, Bahar Rumelili
Discourse analysis is a much-favoured textual analysis method among constructivist and critically minded International Relations scholars interested in the impact of identity, meaning, and discourse on world politics. The aim of this article is to guide students of Turkish IR in their choice and use of this method. Written by two Turkish IR scholars who have employed discourse analysis in their past and present research, this article also includes a personal reflection on its strengths and shortcomings. The first section of the article presents an overview of the conceptual and epistemological underpinnings of discourse analysis, while charting the evolution of discourse analysis in IR since the late 1980s in three phases. The second section offers insight into the personal history of the researchers in employing discourse analysis in their previous and ongoing research, while the third section provides a how-to manual by performing discourse analysis of an actual text. The concluding section focuses on the challenges faced in the conduct of discourse analysis and the potential ways to overcome them, also drawing from the researchers’ own experiences in the field.
话语分析是一种非常受建构主义和具有批判性思维的国际关系学者青睐的文本分析方法,这些学者对身份、意义和话语对世界政治的影响感兴趣。本文的目的是指导土耳其国际关系的学生在他们的选择和使用这种方法。本文由两位土耳其IR学者撰写,他们在过去和现在的研究中都使用了话语分析,本文还包括对其优点和缺点的个人反思。文章的第一部分概述了语篇分析的概念和认识论基础,同时将自20世纪80年代末以来语篇分析在国际关系中的演变分为三个阶段。第二部分介绍了研究人员在其先前和正在进行的研究中使用语篇分析的个人历史,而第三部分通过对实际文本进行语篇分析提供了操作手册。结语部分着重于话语分析中面临的挑战以及克服这些挑战的潜在途径,并借鉴了研究人员在该领域的自身经验。
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引用次数: 17
Broadening the Horizons of the “International” by Historicizing it: Comparative Historical Analysis 通过历史化来拓宽“国际”的视野:比较历史分析
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-02 DOI: 10.20991/ALLAZIMUTH.477305
Mustafa Serdar Palabıyık
This article intends to analyze the use of comparative historical analysis (CHA) in the discipline of International Relations (IR). After describing the historical evolution and fundamental premises of CHA, the article continues with the classification of CHA. Then the strengths and weaknesses of the method as well as its utilization by various theories of IR are discussed. The second part of the article deals with the employment of CHA by the author of this article in his own research design, in order to give an idea that how CHA might contribute to a better understanding of the “international”. In doing that, the advantages and disadvantages of the method are revisited in a way to show the contributions provided as well as the difficulties encountered in practice. The article concludes that CHA might contribute to the study of IR by enhancing interdisciplinary approaches and by adding a socio-historical depth to the ‘international’, which helps to overcome historicism and presentism at the same time.
本文旨在分析比较历史分析(CHA)在国际关系学科中的应用。在介绍了CHA的历史沿革和基本前提之后,本文继续对CHA进行了分类。然后讨论了该方法的优缺点以及它在各种红外理论中的应用。文章的第二部分涉及本文作者在自己的研究设计中使用CHA,以便给出CHA如何有助于更好地理解“国际”的想法。在这样做的过程中,重新审视了该方法的优点和缺点,以显示所提供的贡献以及在实践中遇到的困难。文章的结论是,CHA可以通过加强跨学科方法和在“国际”中增加社会历史深度来促进国际关系的研究,这有助于同时克服历史主义和现在主义。
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引用次数: 1
Secrecy and the Study of International History: Missing Dimension in Turkish Foreign Policy 保密与国际历史研究:土耳其外交政策缺失的维度
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-02 DOI: 10.20991/ALLAZIMUTH.477317
Egemen Bezci
The study of international history largely depends on an exploitation of hitherto unexplored data. The sources of these data could vary from national archives to private papers to semi-structured interviews and so on. An examination of the historiography of Turkish Foreign Policy requires the employing of a rigorous methodology to unearth novel data to feed into current academic debates. Students of international history should be advised of possible logistic and methodological flaws and obstacles in the process. This article examines these logistical and methodological obstacles to conducting archival research for historiographical studies.
对国际历史的研究在很大程度上依赖于对迄今为止尚未开发的资料的利用。这些数据的来源可能不同,从国家档案到私人文件到半结构化访谈等等。对土耳其外交政策的史学研究需要采用严格的方法来挖掘新的数据,以满足当前的学术辩论。国际历史专业的学生应该被告知在这个过程中可能存在的逻辑和方法上的缺陷和障碍。本文探讨了史学研究中进行档案研究的后勤和方法障碍。
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引用次数: 1
An Eclectic Methodological Approach in Analyzing Foreign Policy: Turkey’s Foreign Policy Roles and Events Dataset (TFPRED) 分析外交政策的折衷方法:土耳其外交政策角色和事件数据集(TFPRED)
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.20991/allazimuth.476890
İ. Sula
This article describes the steps in developing an eclectic coding scheme that utilizes the Role theory framework. Role theory proposes that foreign policy is conducted with an attempt to fulfill the role conceptions that decision-makers formulate. Studies utilizing this framework usually identify national role conceptions (NRCs) in the foreign policy speeches of decision-makers with various research techniques. Following the literature, this article first explains how to use content analysis in identifying the most frequently referred NRCs in Turkish Foreign Policy (TFP). Then, unlike the literature, it takes a step further and offers event data analysis to look at the performance of these NRCs as well. With such an approach, it develops the Turkish Foreign Policy Roles and Events Dataset (TFPRED). The TFPRED is a dataset that is the product of a combination of ‘hand-coded content analysis’ with ‘computer-assisted event data analysis’. The article presents a detailed explanation of the steps in using content analysis and event data analysis to build the TFPRED. It also explains the development of the eclectic methodological approach and gives an assessment of the author’s experiences in combining the two methods.
本文描述了开发利用角色理论框架的折衷编码方案的步骤。角色理论认为,外交政策的实施是为了实现决策者制定的角色概念。利用这一框架的研究通常通过各种研究方法识别决策者外交政策演讲中的国家角色概念(nrc)。根据文献,本文首先解释了如何使用内容分析来识别土耳其外交政策(TFP)中最常提到的NRCs。然后,与文献不同的是,它进一步提供了事件数据分析来查看这些nrc的性能。通过这种方法,它开发了土耳其外交政策角色和事件数据集(TFPRED)。TFPRED是一个集“手工编码内容分析”和“计算机辅助事件数据分析”相结合的产物。本文详细解释了使用内容分析和事件数据分析构建TFPRED的步骤。它还解释了折衷的方法论方法的发展,并给出了作者在结合这两种方法的经验的评估。
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引用次数: 1
An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program 期望效用模型与博弈论在国际关系中的应用:对伊朗核计划国际议价的评估
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.20991/allazimuth.476858
Özgür Özdamar
This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to explore their application to a specific research subject, international bargaining on Iran’s nuclear program. In this application, the article presents forecasts about Iran’s nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue. The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program.
本文介绍了期望效用和博弈论方法在IR研究中的理论基础。它接着探讨了它们在一个具体研究课题上的应用,即伊朗核计划的国际谈判。在这一应用中,文章使用博弈论的有限理性模型(称为期望实用模型)对伊朗核计划进行了预测(Bueno de Mesquita 2002)。分别在2005年12月、2006年9月和2007年3月进行了三次分析。这三种预测似乎都与现实生活中有关该问题的发展相符。结果显示,自分析开始以来,伊朗一直在失去国际支持,最后一项预测表明,所有主要国际行动者都支持伊朗的亲美立场。此外,上述三种分析都表明,俄罗斯和中国的支持对遏制伊朗核计划至关重要。
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引用次数: 2
System Dynamics Modeling in International Relations 国际关系中的系统动力学建模
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.20991/ALLAZIMUTH.476884
Ali Fisunoglu
This article provides an introduction to system dynamics modeling with a particular focus on the use of system dynamics models in political science and international relations. A system dynamics approach offers an alternative to traditional qualitative and quantitative methods by providing a dynamic and endogenous point of view, which allows for understanding the dynamic interactions between variables and making short- and long-term projections for alternative policy choices. This approach is particularly useful to tackle the complex problems of contemporary politics, in which the solutions require combining the insights from different disciplines. Applications of a system dynamics approach in the social sciences cover a broad spectrum, from war initiation and termination to social inequality, from demographics to human development and democratization. This article starts by presenting the brief history of system dynamics models and their use in social sciences, and comparing a system dynamics approach to traditional qualitative and quantitative research methods by discussing the advantages and disadvantages of each one. This discussion is followed by the explanation of the essential components of system dynamics models. Finally, the article provides several applications from international relations via developing models of arms races and spread of intrastate conflicts.
本文介绍了系统动力学建模,特别关注系统动力学模型在政治学和国际关系中的应用。系统动力学方法提供了一种替代传统定性和定量方法的方法,它提供了一种动态和内生的观点,允许理解变量之间的动态相互作用,并为替代政策选择做出短期和长期预测。这种方法对于解决当代政治的复杂问题特别有用,因为解决这些问题需要结合不同学科的见解。系统动力学方法在社会科学中的应用涵盖了广泛的领域,从战争的开始和结束到社会不平等,从人口统计学到人类发展和民主化。本文首先介绍了系统动力学模型的简史及其在社会科学中的应用,并通过讨论每种方法的优缺点,将系统动力学方法与传统的定性和定量研究方法进行了比较。讨论之后是对系统动力学模型的基本组成部分的解释。最后,文章通过发展军备竞赛和国内冲突蔓延的模型,从国际关系中提供了几个应用。
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引用次数: 3
Automated Text Analysis and International Relations: The Introduction and Application of a Novel Technique for Twitter 自动文本分析与国际关系:推特新技术的介绍与应用
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.20991/ALLAZIMUTH.476852
E. Hatipoglu, O. Gökçe, Inanç Arin, Y. Saygin
Social media platforms, thanks to their inherent nature of quick and far-reaching dissemination of information, have gradually supplanted the conventional media and become the new loci of political communication. These platforms not only ease and expedite communication among crowds, but also provide researchers huge and easily accessible information. This huge information pool, if it is processed with a systematic analysis, can be a fruitful data source for researchers. Systematic analysis of data from social media, however, poses various challenges for political analysis. Significant advances in automated textual analysis have tried to address such challenges of social media data. This paper introduces one such novel technique to assist researchers doing textual analysis on Twitter. The technique develops a measure, the Longest Common Subsequence Similarity Metric (LCSSM), which automatically clusters tweets with content. To illustrate the usefulness of this technique, we present some of our findings from a project we conducted on Turkish sentiments on Twitter towards Syrian refugees.
社交媒体平台由于其固有的信息传播速度快、传播范围广的特性,逐渐取代了传统媒体,成为政治传播的新场所。这些平台不仅简化和加快了人群之间的交流,而且为研究人员提供了大量易于获取的信息。这个庞大的信息库,如果经过系统的分析处理,可以成为研究人员富有成效的数据源。然而,对社交媒体数据的系统分析给政治分析带来了各种挑战。自动文本分析的重大进展试图解决社交媒体数据的这些挑战。本文介绍了一种这样的新技术,以帮助研究人员在Twitter上进行文本分析。该技术开发了一种度量,即最长公共子序列相似性度量(LCSSM),它自动将tweet与内容聚类。为了说明这种技术的有用性,我们展示了我们在Twitter上对土耳其人对叙利亚难民的情绪进行的一个项目中的一些发现。
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引用次数: 6
Large-N Analysis in the Study of Conflict 冲突研究中的大n分析
IF 1 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-11-30 DOI: 10.20991/ALLAZIMUTH.476414
Belgin San-Akca
In this paper, I examine the generation and use of large-N datasets and issues related to operationalization and measurement in the study of inter-state and intra-state conflict. Specifically, I critically evaluate the work on transnational dimensions of internal conflict. I also talk about my own journey related to my research on interactions between states and nonstate armed groups. I address the gaps in existing research, the use of proxies in large-N data analysis, and talk in detail about observational data collection and coding. I argue that future research should bridge the gap between studies of conflict across the fields of Comparative Politics and International Relations. I make suggestions laying the standards of academic scholarship in collecting data and increasing transparency in research.
在本文中,我研究了大n数据集的生成和使用,以及在国家间和国家内部冲突研究中与操作和测量相关的问题。具体地说,我批判性地评估内部冲突的跨国维度的工作。我还谈到了我自己的旅程,与我对国家与非国家武装团体之间相互作用的研究有关。我解决了现有研究中的差距,在大n数据分析中使用代理,并详细讨论了观测数据的收集和编码。我认为,未来的研究应该弥合比较政治学和国际关系领域冲突研究之间的差距。我建议在收集数据方面制定学术奖学金的标准,并提高研究的透明度。
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引用次数: 0
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All Azimuth-A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
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