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How does user-generated content on Social Media affect stock predictions? A case study on GameStop 社交媒体上的用户生成内容如何影响股票预测?GameStop 案例研究
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100293
Antonino Ferraro , Giancarlo Sperlì
One of the main challenges in the financial market concerns the forecasting of stock behavior, which plays a key role in supporting the financial decisions of investors. In recent years, the large amount of available financial data and the heterogeneous contextual information led researchers to investigate data-driven models using Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approaches for forecasting stock prices. Recent methodologies focus mainly on analyzing participants from Reddit without considering other social media and how their combination affects the stock market, which remains an open challenge. In this paper, we combine financial data and textual user-generated information, which are provided as input to various deep learning models, to develop a stock forecasting system. The main novelties of the proposal concern the design of a multi-modal approach combining historical stock prices and sentiment scores extracted by different Online Social Networks (OSNs), also unveiling possible correlations about heterogeneous information evaluated during the GameStop squeeze. In particular, we have examined several AI-based models and investigated the impact of textual data inferred from well-known Online Social Networks (i.e., Reddit and Twitter) on stock market behavior by conducting a case study on GameStop. Although users’ dynamic opinions on social networks may have a detrimental impact on the stock prediction task, our investigation has demonstrated the usefulness of assessing user-generated content inferred from various OSNs on the market forecasting problem.
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引用次数: 0
Measuring centralization of online platforms through size and interconnection of communities 通过社区规模和相互联系衡量在线平台的集中化程度
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100292
Milo Z. Trujillo, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, James Bagrow
Decentralization of online social platforms offers a variety of potential benefits, including divesting of moderator and administrator authority among a wider population, allowing a variety of communities with differing social standards to coexist, and making the platform more resilient to technical or social attack. However, a platform offering a decentralized architecture does not guarantee that users will use it in a decentralized way, and measuring the centralization of socio-technical networks is not an easy task. In this paper we introduce a method of characterizing inter-community influence, to measure the impact that removing a community would have on the remainder of a platform. Our approach provides a careful definition of “centralization” appropriate in bipartite user-community socio-technical networks, and demonstrates the inadequacy of more trivial methods for interrogating centralization such as examining the distribution of community sizes. We use this method to compare the structure of five socio-technical platforms, and find that even decentralized platforms like Mastodon are far more centralized than any synthetic networks used for comparison. We discuss how this method can be used to identify when a platform is more centralized than it initially appears, either through inherent social pressure like assortative preferential attachment, or through astroturfing by platform administrators, and how this knowledge can inform platform governance and user trust.
网络社交平台的去中心化提供了各种潜在的好处,包括在更广泛的人群中剥离版主和管理员的权力,允许具有不同社会标准的各种社区共存,以及使平台更能抵御技术或社会攻击。然而,提供去中心化架构的平台并不能保证用户会以去中心化的方式使用该平台,而且衡量社会技术网络的中心化程度并非易事。在本文中,我们介绍了一种描述社区间影响力的方法,以衡量移除一个社区对平台其余部分的影响。我们的方法为 "中心化 "提供了一个适合二方用户--社区社会--技术网络的细致定义,并证明了诸如检查社区规模分布等更琐碎的中心化分析方法的不足之处。我们用这种方法比较了五个社会技术平台的结构,发现即使是像 Mastodon 这样的去中心化平台,其中心化程度也远远高于用于比较的任何合成网络。我们讨论了如何利用这种方法来识别一个平台的中心化程度是否高于其最初的表面现象,这可能是由于固有的社会压力(如同类偏好依附),也可能是由于平台管理员的天马行空,以及这种知识如何为平台治理和用户信任提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Crowdsourcing the Mitigation of disinformation and misinformation: The case of spontaneous community-based moderation on Reddit 众包减少虚假信息和错误信息:Reddit 上基于社区的自发审核案例
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100291
Giulio Corsi , Elizabeth Seger , Sean Ó hÉigeartaigh
Community-based content moderation, an approach that utilises user-generated knowledge to shape the ranking and display of online content, is recognised as a potential tool in combating disinformation and misinformation. This study examines this phenomenon on Reddit, which employs a platform-wide content ranking system based on user upvotes and downvotes. By empowering users to influence content visibility, Reddit's system serves as a naturally occurring community moderation mechanism, providing an opportunity to analyse how users engage with this system. Focusing on discussions related to climate change, we observe that in this domain, low-credibility content is spontaneously moderated by Reddit users, although the magnitude of this effect varies across Subreddits. We also identify temporal fluctuations in content removal rates, indicating dynamic and context-dependent patterns influenced by platform policies and socio-political factors. These findings highlight the potential of community-based moderation in mitigating online false information, offering valuable insights for the development of robust social media moderation frameworks.
基于社区的内容节制是一种利用用户生成的知识来影响在线内容的排名和显示的方法,被认为是打击虚假信息和错误信息的潜在工具。本研究对 Reddit 上的这一现象进行了研究,Reddit 采用的是基于用户向上投票和向下投票的全平台内容排名系统。通过授权用户影响内容可见度,Reddit 的系统成为了一种自然形成的社区调节机制,为分析用户如何参与这一系统提供了机会。以气候变化相关讨论为重点,我们观察到,在这一领域,Reddit 用户会自发地对低可信度内容进行审核,尽管这一效果的大小在不同的 Subreddits 中有所不同。我们还发现了内容删除率的时空波动,这表明了受平台政策和社会政治因素影响的动态和上下文依赖模式。这些发现凸显了基于社区的审核在减少网络虚假信息方面的潜力,为开发强大的社交媒体审核框架提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
GASCOM: Graph-based Attentive Semantic Context Modeling for Online Conversation Understanding GASCOM:基于图的细心语义上下文建模用于在线对话理解
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100290
Vibhor Agarwal , Yu Chen , Nishanth Sastry
Online conversation understanding is an important yet challenging NLP problem which has many useful applications (e.g., hate speech detection). However, online conversations typically unfold over a series of posts and replies to those posts, forming a tree structure within which individual posts may refer to semantic context from elsewhere in the tree. Such semantic cross-referencing makes it difficult to understand a single post by itself; yet considering the entire conversation tree is not only difficult to scale but can also be misleading as a single conversation may have several distinct threads or points, not all of which are relevant to the post being considered. In this paper, we propose a Graph-based Attentive Semantic COntext Modeling (GASCOM) framework for online conversation understanding. Specifically, we design two novel algorithms that utilize both the graph structure of the online conversation as well as the semantic information from individual posts for retrieving relevant context nodes from the whole conversation. We further design a token-level multi-head graph attention mechanism to pay different attentions to different tokens from different selected context utterances for fine-grained conversation context modelling. Using this semantic conversational context, we re-examine two well-studied problems: polarity prediction and hate speech detection. Our proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on both tasks, improving macro-F1 scores by 4.5% for polarity prediction and by 5% for hate speech detection. The GASCOM context weights also enhance interpretability.
在线对话理解是一个重要而又具有挑战性的 NLP 问题,它有许多有用的应用(如仇恨言论检测)。然而,在线会话通常由一系列帖子和对这些帖子的回复展开,形成一个树状结构,其中单个帖子可能会引用树状结构中其他地方的语义上下文。这种语义交叉引用使得理解单个帖子本身变得困难;然而,考虑整个对话树不仅难以扩展,而且还可能产生误导,因为单个对话可能有多个不同的线程或要点,但并非所有线程或要点都与所考虑的帖子相关。在本文中,我们为在线对话理解提出了一个基于图形的语义建模(GASCOM)框架。具体来说,我们设计了两种新颖的算法,既利用在线会话的图结构,又利用单个帖子的语义信息,从整个会话中检索相关的上下文节点。我们进一步设计了一种标记级多头图关注机制,对不同选定语境语篇中的不同标记给予不同的关注,从而建立细粒度的会话语境模型。利用这种语义对话上下文,我们重新研究了两个经过充分研究的问题:极性预测和仇恨言论检测。在这两项任务中,我们提出的框架明显优于最先进的方法,在极性预测和仇恨言论检测中,宏 F1 分数分别提高了 4.5% 和 5%。GASCOM 上下文权重还增强了可解释性。
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引用次数: 0
The influence of coordinated behavior on toxicity 协调行为对毒性的影响
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100289
Edoardo Loru , Matteo Cinelli , Maurizio Tesconi , Walter Quattrociocchi
In the intricate landscape of social media, genuine content dissemination may be altered by a number of threats. Coordinated Behavior (CB), defined as orchestrated efforts by entities to deceive or mislead users about their identity and intentions, emerges as a tactic to exploit or manipulate online discourse. This study delves into the relationship between CB and toxic conversation on X (formerly known as Twitter). Using a dataset of 11 million tweets from 1 million users preceding the 2019 UK general election, we show that users displaying CB typically disseminate less harmful content, irrespective of political affiliation. However, distinct toxicity patterns emerge among different coordinated cohorts. Compared to their non-CB counterparts, CB participants show marginally higher toxicity levels only when considering their original posts. We further show the effects of CB-driven toxic content on non-CB users, gauging its impact based on political leanings. Our findings suggest that CB only has a limited impact on the toxicity of digital discourse.
在错综复杂的社交媒体环境中,真实内容的传播可能会受到多种威胁的影响。协调行为(Coordinated Behavior,CB)是指由实体精心策划,在身份和意图上欺骗或误导用户的行为,是一种利用或操纵网络言论的策略。本研究深入探讨了 X(前身为 Twitter)上的协同行为与有毒对话之间的关系。通过使用 2019 年英国大选前来自 100 万用户的 1100 万条推文数据集,我们发现,无论政治派别如何,显示 CB 的用户传播的有害内容通常较少。然而,在不同的协调群组中出现了不同的毒性模式。与非协调群组的用户相比,协调群组的参与者只有在考虑其原始帖子时才会显示出较高的毒性水平。我们进一步展示了由网络社区驱动的有毒内容对非网络社区用户的影响,并根据政治倾向来衡量其影响。我们的研究结果表明,CB 对数字言论的毒性影响有限。
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引用次数: 0
Friend2User : A new CNN based method for user network and content embedding Friend2User:基于 CNN 的用户网络和内容嵌入新方法
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100288
Amal Rekik, Salma Jamoussi
Nowadays, social networks have become an integral part of modern society, significantly influencing individuals worldwide due to their extensive reach. Consequently, analyzing the data disseminated within these networks in order to identify online communities presents a major challenge for researchers in the data mining field. To address this challenge, we propose, in this paper, a novel deep user embedding framework for community extraction on social networks. Our method leverages the capability of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to produce abstract representations of users that preserve the semantic information in the data. Specifically, our approach considers both the profile content and the network structure, harnessing the power of unsupervised CNNs. The key concept underlying our proposal is that each user is represented not only by their own content but also by the content of their close friends. We employ a recursive CNN to integrate neighboring users’ content, thereby generating concise and informative user embeddings. The empirical findings obtained by our method demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed user embeddings in efficiently detecting communities within social networks, particularly in the context of cybersecurity.
如今,社交网络已成为现代社会不可或缺的一部分,其广泛的覆盖面极大地影响着世界各地的个人。因此,分析这些网络中传播的数据以识别在线社区,成为数据挖掘领域研究人员面临的一大挑战。为了应对这一挑战,我们在本文中提出了一种用于社交网络社区提取的新型深度用户嵌入框架。我们的方法利用卷积神经网络(CNN)的能力来生成用户的抽象表示,从而保留数据中的语义信息。具体来说,我们的方法同时考虑了档案内容和网络结构,利用了无监督 CNN 的强大功能。我们的建议所依据的关键概念是,每个用户不仅由他们自己的内容来表示,还由他们好友的内容来表示。我们采用递归 CNN 来整合相邻用户的内容,从而生成简洁、翔实的用户嵌入。我们的方法获得的实证结果表明,我们提出的用户嵌入有效地检测了社交网络中的社群,特别是在网络安全方面。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-community affinity: A polarization measure for multi-community networks 跨社区亲和力:多社区网络的极化衡量标准
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100280
Sreeja Nair , Adriana Iamnitchi

This article introduces a heterophily-based metric for assessing polarization in social networks when different opposing ideological communities coexist. The proposed metric measures polarization at the node level and is based on a node’s affinity for other communities. Node-level values can then be aggregated at the community, network, or any intermediate level, resulting in a more comprehensive map of polarization. We looked at our metric on the Polblogs network, the White Helmets Twitter interaction network with two communities, and the VoterFraud2020 domain network with five communities. Additionally, we evaluated our metric on different sets of synthetic graphs to confirm that it yields low polarization scores, as expected. We employed three ways to build synthetic networks: synthetic labeling, dK-series, and network models, in order to assess how the proposed measure behaves to various topologies and network features. Then, we compared our metric to two commonly used polarization metrics, Guerra’s boundary polarization and the random walk controversy score. We also examined how our suggested metric correlates with two network metrics: assortativity and modularity.

本文介绍了一种基于异质性的度量方法,用于评估不同对立意识形态社群共存时社交网络中的极化现象。该指标基于节点对其他社群的亲和力,在节点层面衡量极化程度。然后,节点级的值可以在社区、网络或任何中间级进行汇总,从而形成更全面的极化地图。我们在 Polblogs 网络、有两个社区的白头盔推特互动网络和有五个社区的 VoterFraud2020 域网络上研究了我们的指标。此外,我们还在不同的合成图集上评估了我们的度量标准,以确认它能产生较低的极化得分,正如我们所预期的那样。我们采用了三种方法来构建合成网络:合成标签、dK 序列和网络模型,以评估所提出的度量方法在不同拓扑结构和网络特征下的表现。然后,我们将我们的指标与两种常用的极化指标(格拉的边界极化和随机漫步争议得分)进行了比较。我们还研究了我们提出的度量方法与两个网络度量方法的相关性:同类性和模块性。
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引用次数: 0
RICo: Reddit ideological communities RICo:Reddit 意识形态社区
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100279
Kamalakkannan Ravi, Adan Ernesto Vela

The main objective of our research is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between language usage within different communities and delineating the ideological narratives. We focus specifically on utilizing Natural Language Processing techniques to identify underlying narratives in the coded or suggestive language employed by non-normative communities associated with targeted violence. Earlier studies addressed the detection of ideological affiliation through surveys, user studies, and a limited number based on the content of text articles, which still require label curation. Previous work addressed label curation by using ideological subreddits (r/Liberal and r/Conservative for Liberal and Conservative classes) to label the articles shared on those subreddits according to their prescribed ideologies, albeit with a limited dataset.

Building upon previous work, we use subreddit ideologies to categorize shared articles. In addition to the conservative and liberal classes, we introduce a new category called “Restricted” which encompasses text articles shared in subreddits that are restricted, privatized, or banned, such as r/TheDonald. The “Restricted” class encompasses posts tied to violence, regardless of conservative or liberal affiliations. Additionally, we augment our dataset with text articles from self-identified subreddits like r/progressive and r/askaconservative for the liberal and conservative classes, respectively. This results in an expanded dataset of 377,144 text articles, consisting of 72,488 liberal, 79,573 conservative, and 225,083 restricted class articles. Our goal is to analyze language variances in different ideological communities, investigate keyword relevance in labeling article orientations, especially in unseen cases (922,522 text articles), and delve into radicalized communities, conducting thorough analysis and interpretation of the results.

我们研究的主要目的是全面了解不同社区的语言使用与意识形态叙事之间的关系。我们特别关注利用自然语言处理技术来识别与定点暴力相关的非规范社群所使用的编码或暗示性语言中的潜在叙事。早期的研究通过调查、用户研究和少量基于文本文章内容的研究来检测意识形态从属关系,这些研究仍然需要对标签进行整理。之前的研究通过使用意识形态子红人区(r/Liberal 和 r/Conservative,分别代表自由派和保守派),根据规定的意识形态对这些子红人区上分享的文章进行标记,从而解决了标签整理问题,尽管数据集有限。除了保守派和自由派之外,我们还引入了一个名为 "受限 "的新类别,它包括在受限制、私有化或被禁止的子版块(如 r/TheDonald)中分享的文本文章。限制 "类包括与暴力相关的帖子,与保守派或自由派无关。此外,我们还为自由派和保守派分别添加了来自 r/progressive 和 r/askaconservative 等自我认同子论坛的文本文章,从而扩充了数据集。这样就得到了一个包含 377,144 篇文本文章的扩展数据集,其中包括 72,488 篇自由派文章、79,573 篇保守派文章和 225,083 篇限制级文章。我们的目标是分析不同意识形态社群的语言差异,研究关键词在标注文章取向时的相关性,尤其是在未见过的情况下(922,522 篇文本文章),并深入研究激进化社群,对结果进行全面分析和解释。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating password strength based on information spread on social networks: A combined approach relying on data reconstruction and generative models 根据社交网络上传播的信息评估密码强度:依靠数据重建和生成模型的组合方法
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100278
Maurizio Atzori , Eleonora Calò , Loredana Caruccio , Stefano Cirillo , Giuseppe Polese , Giandomenico Solimando

Ensuring the security of personal accounts has become a key concern due to the widespread password attack techniques. Although passwords are the primary defense against unauthorized access, the practice of reusing easy-to-remember passwords increases security risks for people. Traditional methods for evaluating password strength are often insufficient since they overlook the public personal information that users frequently share on social networks. In addition, while users tend to limit access to their data on single profiles, personal data is often unintentionally shared across multiple profiles, exposing users to password threats. In this paper, we present an extension of a data reconstruction tool, namely soda advance, which incorporates a new module to evaluate password strength based on publicly available data across multiple social networks. It relies on a new metric to provide a comprehensive evaluation of password strength. Moreover, we investigate the capabilities and risks associated with emerging Large Language Models (LLMs) in evaluating and generating passwords, respectively. Specifically, by exploiting the proliferation of LLMs, it has been possible to interact with many LLMs through Automated Template Learning methodologies. Experimental evaluations, performed with 100 real users, demonstrate the effectiveness of LLMs in generating strong passwords with respect to data associated with users’ profiles. Furthermore, LLMs have proved to be effective also in evaluation tasks, but the combined usage of LLMs and soda advance guaranteed better classifications up to more than 10% in terms of F1-score.

由于密码攻击技术的广泛应用,确保个人账户的安全已成为人们关注的焦点。虽然密码是防止未经授权访问的主要防御手段,但重复使用易于记忆的密码的做法增加了人们的安全风险。传统的密码强度评估方法往往不够充分,因为它们忽略了用户经常在社交网络上分享的公开个人信息。此外,虽然用户倾向于限制对单个个人资料的访问,但个人资料往往会无意中在多个个人资料中共享,从而使用户面临密码威胁。在本文中,我们介绍了一种数据重建工具(即 soda advance)的扩展功能,其中包含一个新模块,用于根据多个社交网络上的公开数据评估密码强度。它依赖于一种新的度量方法来对密码强度进行综合评估。此外,我们还研究了新兴的大型语言模型(LLM)在评估和生成密码方面的能力和风险。具体来说,利用 LLM 的扩散,我们可以通过自动模板学习方法与许多 LLM 进行交互。通过对 100 名真实用户进行实验评估,证明了 LLMs 在根据用户配置文件相关数据生成强密码方面的有效性。此外,LLMs 在评估任务中也被证明是有效的,但是 LLMs 和苏打进阶的结合使用保证了更好的分类,在 F1 分数方面提高了 10%以上。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the journey of influencers in shaping social media engagement success 探索影响者塑造社交媒体参与成功的历程
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.osnem.2024.100277
Pouyan Eslami, Mahdi Najafabadi, Amir Gharehgozli

This study unfolds nuanced insights into the diverse dimensions dictating the success of social media influencers. Analyzing more than 210,000 social media posts and utilizing the Heuristic-Systematic Model of Information Processing (HSM), this study explores diverse factors, including individual appearance characteristics, depth of persuasive power, and various influencer types. The findings of this study shed light on the distinct impacts of varying influencer archetypes, such as celebrities and micro-celebrities, on user engagement and reveal the nuanced moderating effects of these archetypes on the relationships intertwined with personal attributes, persuasive potency, and influencer success. The proposed model advocates that influencers who leverage more profound, systematic processing strategies, marked by detailed information analysis and conveyance, are poised to experience elevated user engagement compared to counterparts employing heuristic modalities, distinguished by practical mental shortcuts and superficial examinations. This elucidation accentuates the imperative of harmonizing heuristic and systematic methodologies for emerging influencers and brands aspiring to optimize user engagement and efficaciously mold consumer behavior. This paper encapsulates a comprehensive exploration of the dynamic landscapes of influencer marketing via the HSM prism, delivering profound insights and practical ramifications for scholars, marketers, and influencers aiming to navigate and exploit the intricate networks of influential determinants in the ever-evolving digital marketing domain.

本研究对决定社交媒体影响力成功与否的各种因素进行了细致入微的分析。本研究分析了 210,000 多条社交媒体帖子,并利用信息处理启发式系统模型 (HSM),探讨了各种因素,包括个人外观特征、说服力深度和各种影响者类型。本研究的结果揭示了名人和微名人等不同影响者原型对用户参与的不同影响,并揭示了这些原型对个人特质、说服力和影响者成功之间相互交织的关系的微妙调节作用。所提出的模型认为,与采用启发式模式(以实用的思维捷径和肤浅的检查为特征)的影响者相比,利用更深入、更系统的处理策略(以详细的信息分析和传达为特征)的影响者有望获得更高的用户参与度。这一阐释突出表明,对于希望优化用户参与度并有效塑造消费者行为的新兴影响者和品牌而言,协调启发式和系统化方法论势在必行。本文通过 HSM 棱镜对有影响力者营销的动态景观进行了全面探索,为学者、营销人员和有影响力者提供了深刻见解和实际影响,使他们能够在不断发展的数字营销领域中驾驭和利用错综复杂的有影响力决定因素网络。
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引用次数: 0
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Online Social Networks and Media
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