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Etude de la Population Africaine最新文献

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The demographic transition in the Democratic Republic of Congo: facts and challenges to reach a demographic dividend. 刚果民主共和国的人口结构转型:实现人口红利的事实和挑战。
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1207
Laura Franco-Henao, Carmen Rodriguez-Sumaza, Carlos Borondo-Arribas, Emmanuel Muzigirwa-Muke
Background: The channels linking the demographic and economic situation of a population are numerous. We focus on the process of a demographic transition and the demographic dividend that Sub-Saharan Africa and, in particular, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), are currently undergoing. Data source and methods: Secondary data are used to highlight the diverse paths of demographic transition in Sub-Saharan African countries. Additionally, the specific situation of the DRC is selected as a case study. Results: The potential of Sub-Saharan Africa to enjoy a demographic dividend is exceptional. Although the DRC is in the group of the least advanced countries, its increasing share of working age population is a key to reap the benefits of the potential economic growth. Conclusion: There are some recent economic and social advancements in the DRC, but the benefits of its demographic performance are dependent on whether government and institutions are capable of responding to current circumstances with targeted, effective and coordinated policies.
背景:联系人口和经济状况的渠道很多。我们关注撒哈拉以南非洲,特别是刚果民主共和国目前正在经历的人口转型进程和人口红利。数据来源和方法:使用二手数据来突出撒哈拉以南非洲国家人口转型的不同路径。此外,还选择了刚果民主共和国的具体情况作为案例研究。结果:撒哈拉以南非洲享有人口红利的潜力是特殊的。尽管刚果民主共和国属于最不发达国家之列,但其工作年龄人口比例的不断上升,是从潜在的经济增长中获益的关键。结论:刚果民主共和国最近在经济和社会方面取得了一些进展,但其人口表现的好处取决于政府和机构是否能够以有针对性、有效和协调的政策应对当前情况。
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引用次数: 2
Age schedules of intra-provincial migration in Kenya 肯尼亚省内人口迁移的年龄表
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1213
V. Awuor, G. Odipo, A. Agwanda
Background: Migration today is a complex process determined by inter-related historical, geographical, economic, sociological and political factors. There are linkages between life-course transitions and patterns of movement necessitating estimation of migration propensities by age, sex and other characteristics. However, analysis of age specific migration propensities has been limited in developing countries. Data source and methods: Data was derived from the 2009 Kenya population and housing Census via the IPUMS data Series. The standard 7-parameter age migration schedule due to Rogers and Castro (1981) was fitted using Microsoft excel workbook using solver. Results: Large volumes of movements occur between ages 17 and 24.The peak ages at migration are similar to those observed in Asian migration patterns. The age pattern for all the regions had two peaks contrary to the standard with four. Conclusion: The results suggest that the main contributory factors behind migration schedules are schooling, labour force and associational moves.
背景:今天的移民是一个复杂的过程,由相互关联的历史、地理、经济、社会和政治因素决定。生命历程的转变和迁徙模式之间存在联系,因此需要根据年龄、性别和其他特征来估计迁徙倾向。然而,对发展中国家特定年龄段移民倾向的分析有限。数据来源和方法:数据来源于2009年肯尼亚人口和住房普查,采用IPUMS数据系列。Rogers和Castro(1981)提出的标准7参数年龄迁移时间表是使用求解器使用Microsoft excel工作簿拟合的。结果:大量迁徙发生在17岁至24岁之间。迁徙高峰年龄与亚洲迁徙模式中观察到的年龄相似。所有地区的年龄模式都有两个峰值,与四个峰值的标准相反。结论:研究结果表明,学校教育、劳动力和社会流动是影响移民计划的主要因素。
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引用次数: 1
Living arrangements in sub-Saharan Africa between modernization and ethnicity 撒哈拉以南非洲现代化与种族之间的生活安排
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1206
Giuseppe Gabrielli, A. Paterno, P. Sacco
Context/Background: Sub-Saharan Africa is characterized by an extraordinary diversification of living arrangements. It is a debatable question whether these features are evolving alongside the deep economic and social changes observed in the past few decades. Despite numerous studies on family changes and their effects, very few analyses consider different ethnic and geographical contexts. Data Source and Methods: The paper observe the interaction between modernization and cultural heritage in shaping living arrangements in 10 sub-Saharan countries and in 38 ethnic groups. A temporal perspective has been adopted, comparing two successive DHS carried out between 1990 and 2013.  Stratifying by ethnic groups and rural/urban contexts, factor analysis and hierarchical classification analysis investigate how living arrangements combine with fertility levels and socio-economic characteristics. Findings: The results support the large heterogeneity of living arrangements and the increase of new family forms, rather than the existence of a convergence process on a single nuclear family pattern. Ethnic background is confirmed a valid interpretative key, necessary to understand the cultural substrate in which the modernization factors brought by globalization act. Conclusion: National governments should develop and implement family policies that can raise the wellbeing of the emerging family models. In particular, family policies should support households in providing care and economic, material, psychological and affective support for their members.
背景:撒哈拉以南非洲的特点是生活安排异常多样化。这些特征是否随着过去几十年中观察到的深刻经济和社会变化而演变,这是一个有争议的问题。尽管对家庭变化及其影响进行了大量研究,但很少有分析考虑不同的种族和地理背景。数据来源和方法:本文观察了现代化与文化遗产在撒哈拉以南10个国家和38个民族的生活安排中的相互作用。采用了时间视角,比较了1990年至2013年间连续两次进行的DHS。按种族群体和农村/城市背景进行分层,因素分析和分级分类分析调查了生活安排如何与生育水平和社会经济特征相结合。研究结果:研究结果支持生活安排的巨大异质性和新家庭形式的增加,而不是单一核心家庭模式的趋同过程。民族背景被确认为一个有效的解释关键,是理解全球化带来的现代化因素所作用的文化基底所必需的。结论:国家政府应该制定和实施能够提高新兴家庭模式幸福感的家庭政策。特别是,家庭政策应支持家庭为其成员提供照顾以及经济、物质、心理和情感支持。
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引用次数: 7
Effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility: historical evidence from South Africa’s women educators 艾滋病毒/艾滋病对生育的影响:来自南非女性教育者的历史证据
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1205
E. Udjo
Context/Background : The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a public health challenge.  Globally, South Africa ranks second in HIV prevalence and has the second lowest fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa.  The effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility is contentious, although it is often assumed in population projections that HIV/AIDS reduces fertility.  This study examines the effect of HIV/AIDS on the probability of getting pregnant among South Africa’s educators controlling for confounders. Data Source and Methods : The data consisted of a representative sample of educators in public schools in South Africa in 2004. Statistical analysis utilized multivariate logistic regression. Results: Controlling for confounders, HIV positive women educators aged 18-34 had higher odds of being pregnant in the preceding 12 months compared with HIV negative women educators in the same age group. Conclusion: There was no evidence from this study that HIV positive women were less likely to be pregnant than HIV negative women.
背景/背景:艾滋病毒/艾滋病的流行仍然是一项公共卫生挑战。在全球范围内,南非的艾滋病毒感染率排名第二,生育率在撒哈拉以南非洲排名第二。艾滋病毒/艾滋病对生育率的影响是有争议的,尽管在人口预测中经常假设艾滋病毒/艾滋病会降低生育率。这项研究在控制混杂因素的南非教育工作者中检验了艾滋病毒/艾滋病对怀孕概率的影响。数据来源和方法:数据包括2004年南非公立学校教育工作者的代表性样本。统计分析采用多元逻辑回归。结果:在控制混杂因素的情况下,18-34岁的HIV阳性女性教育工作者在前12个月内怀孕的几率高于同年龄组的HIV阴性女性教育工作者。结论:本研究没有证据表明HIV阳性妇女比HIV阴性妇女怀孕的可能性更小。
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引用次数: 0
Internal migration and unmet need for family planning in Cotonou, Benin Republic 贝宁共和国科托努的国内移徙和未满足的计划生育需求
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1212
B. Banougnin, A. Adekunle, A. Oladokun, M. A. Sanni
Context/Background: Evidence shows that addressing the unmet need for FP of vulnerable groups such as rural-to-urban migrants is another alternative to lowering fertility in developing countries. This study examines how migration affects unmet need in Cotonou. Data Source and Methods: We employed multinomial logistic regression using 2012 Benin Republic Demographic and Health Survey data concerning 827 married women aged 15-49 years and residing in Cotonou. Findings: Findings show that recent migrants were less likely to have an unmet need than non-migrants. Then, earlier migrants and non-migrants had similar odds of unmet need. After adjusting for socioeconomic variables, the risks of unmet need for spacing and limiting among recent migrants decreased and increased, respectively, by 7%. Earlier migrants became significantly less likely to have an unmet need for spacing births than non-migrants. Conclusion: The odds of unmet need are lower among migrants than non-migrants, but complementary research on migrants’ fertility in Cotonou is necessary before any conclusion.
背景/背景:有证据表明,解决农村向城市移民等弱势群体对计划生育的未满足需求是降低发展中国家生育率的另一种选择。本研究考察了移徙如何影响科托努未满足的需求。数据来源和方法:我们采用多项logistic回归,使用2012年贝宁共和国人口与健康调查数据,涉及827名15-49岁居住在科托努的已婚妇女。调查结果:调查结果表明,与非移民相比,最近移民有未满足需求的可能性更小。然后,早期移民和非移民的未满足需求的几率相似。在对社会经济变量进行调整后,近期移民中未满足间隔需求和限制需求的风险分别下降和增加了7%。与非移民相比,早期移民的生育间隔未得到满足的可能性大大降低。结论:移民未满足需求的几率低于非移民,但在得出任何结论之前,有必要对科托努移民的生育能力进行补充研究。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of internal migration on fertility in Cotonou, Benin Republic 贝宁共和国科托努境内移民对生育率的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1209
B. Banougnin, A. Adekunle, A. Oladokun, M. A. Sanni
Context/Background: In developing countries, fertility is usually higher in rural than urban areas. This is partly due to lower access to and utilization of reproductive health services in rural areas. However, migration to cities may alter the fertility behaviour of migrants from rural areas. Data Source and Methods: The study used 2012 Benin Republic Demographic and Health Survey data and focused on married women aged 15-49 years and residing in Cotonou (n=722). Tobit regression was employed for the multivariate-level analysis. Findings: The results showed that migrants adapt gradually to the fertility patterns of non-migrants. This gradual adaptation is compounded by a relative selectivity of migrants whose fertility preferences are similar to those of non-migrants. Finally, recent migrants for employment or school reason had the lowest number of births over the past five years, which supports the disruption hypothesis. Conclusion: The migration-fertility relationship depends on the length of residence, migrant’ socioeconomic characteristics and reason for migration.
背景/背景:在发展中国家,农村地区的生育率通常高于城市地区。这在一定程度上是由于农村地区获得和利用生殖健康服务的机会较低。然而,向城市迁移可能会改变农村地区移民的生育行为。数据来源和方法:该研究使用了2012年贝宁共和国人口与健康调查数据,重点关注居住在科托努的15-49岁已婚妇女(n=722)。多元水平分析采用托比特回归。研究结果表明,流动人口逐渐适应非流动人口的生育模式。移民的生育偏好与非移民相似,他们的相对选择性加剧了这种逐渐适应。最后,最近因就业或上学原因移民的出生人数在过去五年中最低,这支持了破坏假说。结论:移民生育关系取决于居住年限、移民社会经济特征和移民原因。
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引用次数: 4
Spatial analysis of child mortality and welfare differentials in South Africa: evidences from the 2011 Census 南非儿童死亡率和福利差异的空间分析:来自2011年人口普查的证据
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1214
Samuel A. Zewdie, Visseho Adjiwajnou
Background: Welfare differential is a common phenomenon among South African population which can be manifested in terms of various economic and health outcomes. Using child mortality (CM) as one of a key measure of the country’s health system, the study attempted to show its spatial distribution and the association with economic disparities in the country. Methods: The study primarily aimed to derive estimates of CM rates for the municipalities and provinces of South Africa and assessed the results in relation to some welfare measures such as poverty and inequality. The estimation of CM rates was achieved through the use of direct synthetic cohort methods with Bayesian spatial smoothing. The smoothing process helped to generate accurate municipal level estimates of CM. The model utilized information from neighboring municipalities by controlling the effects of women’s education and HIV. Results: It was found that there were clear spatial differentials of CM in the country, where at province level under-five mortality (U5M) rate (deaths per 1000 live births) ranges from 26 in Western Cape to 71 in KwaZulu-Natal. At municipal level, it ranges from 24 in City of Cape Town to 109 in uPhongolo. It was also shown that CM was higher in poorer and more unequal areas, although there were cases which had inverse relationship. For instance, several municipalities in Limpopo province scored relatively lower child mortality rates though the level of poverty is very high Conclusions: The study revealed significant spatial differentials of CM in the country, which were also associated with the level of poverty and income inequality. The findings may help local and national government to implement policies more effectively and make more focused decisions for a better health outcome.
背景:福利差异是南非人口中的一种普遍现象,可以在各种经济和健康结果方面表现出来。该研究将儿童死亡率(CM)作为衡量该国卫生系统的一项关键指标,试图显示其空间分布及其与该国经济差距的关系。方法:本研究的主要目的是估计南非各省市的CM率,并评估与一些福利措施(如贫困和不平等)相关的结果。CM率的估计是通过使用贝叶斯空间平滑的直接合成队列方法实现的。平滑过程有助于产生准确的市级CM估计。该模型通过控制妇女教育和艾滋病毒的影响,利用了邻近城市的信息。结果:研究发现,全国五岁以下儿童死亡率存在明显的空间差异,省级五岁以下儿童死亡率(每1000例活产死亡)从西开普省的26例到夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的71例不等。在市一级,死亡人数从开普敦市的24人到乌蓬戈洛的109人不等。研究还表明,在贫困和不平等程度较高的地区,CM较高,尽管在某些情况下呈反比关系。例如,林波波省的几个城市的儿童死亡率相对较低,尽管贫困程度非常高。结论:该研究揭示了该国人口死亡率的显著空间差异,这也与贫困程度和收入不平等有关。这些发现可能有助于地方和国家政府更有效地实施政策,并做出更有针对性的决定,以获得更好的健康结果。
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引用次数: 0
Too young to be a wife! analysis of the factors influencing child marriages and its influence on the preferred number of children among women in Zambia. 太年轻了,不适合做妻子!分析影响童婚的因素及其对赞比亚妇女首选子女数量的影响。
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1210
J. Mulenga, M. C. Mulenga, B. B. Bwalya, Christabel Ngongola-Reinke
Context/Background: Zambia has one of the highest rates of child marriages in the world. This study sought to establish the determinants of child marriage in rural and urban areas of Zambia, and to determine the influence of child marriage on fertility preferences of women in Zambia. Data source and methods : The study utilized data from the 2013-2014 Zambia Demographic Health Survey.  Data was analysed using the Binary Logistic and Poisson regression models. Results: Timing of conception, age at first sex, region of residence, education level of respondent and their partners, and family size were significant predictors of child marriages in urban areas. In rural areas, region of residence, age at fist sex, education level of respondent and their partners, and family size had significant influence on child marriages. The study further found that women who got married below the age of 18 preferred a higher number of children. Conclusion: The study established that various factors influence child marriages in urban and rural Zambia and in turn child marriages influence the preferred number of children. The findings suggest a multipronged approach to addressing the root cause of the problem.
背景:赞比亚是世界上童婚率最高的国家之一。这项研究试图确定赞比亚农村和城市地区童婚的决定因素,并确定童婚对赞比亚妇女生育偏好的影响。数据来源和方法:该研究利用了2013-2014年赞比亚人口健康调查的数据。使用二元Logistic和泊松回归模型对数据进行分析。结果:受孕时间、初性年龄、居住地、受访者及其伴侣的教育水平和家庭规模是城市地区童婚的重要预测因素。在农村地区,居住地区、初婚年龄、受访者及其伴侣的教育水平和家庭规模对童婚有显著影响。研究进一步发现,18岁以下结婚的女性更喜欢生更多的孩子。结论:该研究表明,赞比亚城市和农村的童婚受到各种因素的影响,而童婚又会影响孩子的偏好数量。研究结果表明,要解决这个问题的根本原因,需要采取多管齐下的方法。
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引用次数: 11
Mapping incidents of infant mortality arising from gastroenteritis: a case study from South-East Nigeria 绘制胃肠炎引起的婴儿死亡事件:尼日利亚东南部的一个案例研究
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1189
C. A. Onyekwelu, E. A. Obienusi, A. Mozie, I. Nwosu, Y. Adewoyin, C. C. Ndichie, Emeka E. Igboeli, R. U. Ayadiuno
Background: The upsurge of deaths from gastroenteritis in South-East Nigeria within the last decade has become an issue of concern. Using Anambra State as a case study, this paper examined the trend of reported cases of gastroenteritis and associated fatalities among children with a view to mapping the spatial pattern and underlying causes. Data source and methods: Water samples collected from the available domestic sources in each of the selected 21 study localities were analyzed for aerobic heterotrophic count, total coliform, faecal coliform and enterococci, and regressed with gastroenteritis data sourced from the State epidemiological surveillance unit. Results: The results showed that the near-epidemic 58,269 incidents of gastroenteritis recorded in Anambra State, Southeast Nigeria between 2004 and 2008 had a spatial pattern and occurred in clusters with the highest number of 287 deaths occurring in Idemili North/South constituency. The study further showed that the consumption of contaminated water was responsible for the spread of the disease Conclusion: Hand washing practices, food hygiene, proper waste management, and the provision of basic infrastructure for improved health outcomes among the population are suggested inorder to curb the spread of gastroenteritis.
背景:在过去十年中,尼日利亚东南部胃肠炎死亡人数激增已成为一个令人关注的问题。本文以阿南布拉州为例,研究了报告的儿童肠胃炎病例和相关死亡病例的趋势,以期绘制其空间格局和潜在原因。数据来源和方法:从选定的21个研究地点的可用生活水源中收集水样,分析需氧异养计数、总大肠菌群、粪便大肠菌群和肠球菌,并与来自国家流行病学监测单位的胃肠炎数据进行回归。结果:结果表明,2004年至2008年期间,尼日利亚东南部阿南布拉州记录的肠胃炎病例接近流行病的58,269例,具有一定的空间格局,呈聚集性发生,在Idemili北/南选区死亡人数最多,达287人。该研究进一步表明,饮用受污染的水是导致疾病传播的原因。结论:建议采取洗手习惯、食品卫生、适当的废物管理和提供基本基础设施,以改善人口的健康状况,以遏制肠胃炎的传播。
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引用次数: 0
Perception of demographic and cultural factors associated with the crime of human trafficking in Nigeria 对与尼日利亚贩运人口罪行有关的人口和文化因素的认识
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.11564/32-2-1196
Bonaventure N. Nwokeoma
Context/background:The demographic and cultural factors that drive the crime of human trafficking have not been properly researched in Nigeria. This study therefore examines the perception of the association between population characteristics, fertility norms and human trafficking. Methods:This study used 600 respondents from Imo State. Data was collected through questionnaire and in-depth interviews from two local governments that are active sites for human trafficking. Descriptive statistics, chi-square and regression analysis were used to analyse the data. Results:The findings showed a preponderance of females as victims and traffickers than males, with a significant relationship of P<0.001 between the sex of traffickers and human trafficking. The age group that are mostly trafficked are 16-25 years for women and 5-14 years for male and female children. Large family size driven by a traditional fertility rite ( ewu- ukwu ) for women with 10+ children was found to be strongly associated with human trafficking. Conclusion:The study recommends aggressive birth control program that targets traditional fertility norms and programs that offer livelihood options and increased well being for women.
背景:在尼日利亚,推动人口贩运犯罪的人口和文化因素尚未得到适当的研究。因此,本研究审查了对人口特征、生育规范和人口贩运之间关系的看法。方法:本研究使用了来自伊莫州的600名受访者。数据是通过问卷调查和深度访谈从两个地方政府收集的,这两个地方政府是人口贩运的活跃场所。采用描述性统计、卡方分析和回归分析对数据进行分析。结果:女性作为受害者和人口贩运者的比例高于男性,人口贩运者的性别与人口贩运之间存在P<0.001的显著关系。被贩卖最多的年龄组是16-25岁的妇女和5-14岁的男女儿童。传统的生育仪式(ewu- ukwu)为生育10个以上孩子的妇女带来了庞大的家庭规模,这与人口贩运密切相关。结论:该研究建议采取积极的计划生育措施,针对传统的生育规范和为妇女提供生计选择和增加福祉的计划。
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引用次数: 1
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Etude de la Population Africaine
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