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Criteria for defining war, terrorism, and guerrilla warfare based on clausewitz’s concepts of the nature and essence of war 基于克劳塞维茨战争性质和本质概念的战争、恐怖主义和游击战定义标准
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.V25N3.P643-673
Vitelio Brustolin
The definition of terrorism and its differentiation from war and guerrilla warfare has been a problem for science, international relations and legal systems for decades. This article posits that defining terrorism requires also the definition of other warlike phenomena, so as not to conflate the acts or events. Therefore, the proposed criteria for defining terrorism and guerrilla warfare are presented as a means to differentiate their definitions from that of war. The methodology is a review of the concepts of the nature and essence of war, as described in the Carl von Clausewitz book, Vom Kriege (in the standard German edition of Hahlweg and its widely accepted English translation by Howard and Paret). These concepts were cross-analyzed with recent scientific discoveries about the behavior of social animals, with a focus on humans. The resulting classification allows historical or contemporary events to be evaluated to determine what kind of conflicts they are.
几十年来,恐怖主义的定义及其与战争和游击战的区别一直是科学、国际关系和法律体系的一个问题。这篇文章认为,定义恐怖主义还需要定义其他类似战争的现象,以免将这些行为或事件混为一谈。因此,提出了定义恐怖主义和游击战的拟议标准,作为将其定义与战争定义区分开来的一种手段。该方法是对战争性质和本质概念的回顾,如卡尔·冯·克劳塞维茨的《Vom Kriege》一书所述(在《Hahlweg》的标准德语版及其霍华德和帕雷特广泛接受的英文译本中)。这些概念与最近关于社会动物行为的科学发现进行了交叉分析,重点是人类。由此产生的分类允许对历史或当代事件进行评估,以确定它们是什么样的冲突。
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引用次数: 0
A Questão Cibernética e o Pensamento Realista 网络问题与现实思考
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.v25n2.p517-543
M. Rocha, Daniele Baltz da Fonseca
RESUMO Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar em que medida a teoria realista contribui para explicar a Questao Cibernetica e a ocorrencia de conflitos virtuais entre os Estados na atualidade. A pesquisa situa-se no contexto de que, nos ultimos anos, varios Estados no Sistema Internacional passaram a atribuir as suas Forcas Armadas a responsabilidade de Defesa nao somente contra ameacas fisicas, mas tambem contra aquelas com origem no espaco cibernetico. O que justifica a pesquisa e a contribuicao com a literatura existente sobre a tematica cibernetica que, na atualidade, ainda e relativamente reduzida. O estudo abordou o que caracteriza o conflito e o espaco cibernetico, bem como esse fenomeno impacta a percepcao de Seguranca dos Estados. Foi realizada uma breve revisao sobre o pensamento realista e de suas premissas fundamentais. A conclusao da pesquisa aponta para uma aplicabilidade da logica realista para a compreensao dos conflitos estatais em que atividades ciberneticas estejam presentes, de modo analogo ao que ja ocorre em conflitos convencionais no Sistema Internacional, mesmo existindo uma certa resistencia de alguns estudiosos dos conflitos interestatais, adeptos do pensamento realista, quanto a tematica cibernetica. ABSTRACT This research had as objective to analyze to what extent the realistic theory contributes to explain the Cybernetic Question and the occurrence of virtual conflicts between the States at the present time. The research is in the context of the fact that in recent years several States in the International System have started to assign their armed forces the responsibility of defense not only against physical threats but also against those originating in cyberspace. What justifies the research is the contribution with the existing literature on the cybernetic subject that, at present, still is relatively reduced. The study addressed what characterizes conflict and cyberspace, as well as this phenomenon impacts the perception of State Security. A brief review was made on realistic thinking and its fundamental premises. The conclusion of the research points to an applicability of the realist logic to the understanding of the state conflicts in which cybernetic activities are present, analogous to what already occurs in conventional conflicts in the International System, even though there is some resistance from some scholars of the interstate conflicts, adepts of the realist thought, on the cybernetic subject.
本研究旨在分析现实主义理论在多大程度上有助于解释控制论问题和当今国家之间虚拟冲突的发生。这项研究的背景是,近年来,国际体系中的几个国家开始指派其武装部队不仅负责防御物理威胁,还负责防御源自控制论空间的威胁。这证明了目前对控制论主题的研究和对现有文献的贡献仍然相对较小。这项研究探讨了冲突和控制论空间的特征,以及这一现象对国家安全观念的影响。对现实主义思维及其基本前提进行了简要的回顾。研究结论指出,现实主义逻辑适用于理解存在控制论活动的国家冲突,类似于国际体系中已经发生的传统冲突,尽管一些国家间冲突的学者、现实主义思维的追随者、,关于控制论。摘要本研究旨在分析现实主义理论在多大程度上有助于解释控制论问题和当前国家之间虚拟冲突的发生。这项研究的背景是,近年来,国际体系中的几个国家已经开始赋予其武装部队不仅防御物理威胁的责任,而且防御源自网络空间的威胁。证明这项研究合理的是,现有文献对控制论主题的贡献,目前仍相对减少。该研究探讨了冲突和网络空间的特点,以及这一现象对国家安全观念的影响。对现实主义思想及其基本前提作了简要的评述。研究结论表明,现实主义逻辑适用于理解控制论活动所处的国家冲突,类似于国际体系中已经发生的传统冲突,尽管一些坚持现实主义思想的国家间冲突学者在控制论主题上存在一些阻力。
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引用次数: 2
Brasil, um líder legítimo: Rumo ao assento permanente no Csnu mediante Operações de Paz 合法领导人巴西:通过和平行动争取在Csnu的常任理事国席位
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.v25n2.p492-516
Giulia Scortegagna, Jeancezar Ditzz de Souza Ribeiro
RESUMO  A partir de uma breve analise de sua atuacao no Conselho de Seguranca das Nacoes Unidas no bienio de 2010-2011 pretendese examinar a legitimidade dos discursos e lideranca da atuacao brasileira no Comite e nas Operacoes de Paz. Por ser um ator que preza por vias diplomaticas e multilaterais vem ganhando grande destaque dentro da Organizacao das Nacoes Unidas e nos instrumentos de manutencao da seguranca internacional. A MINUSTAH, missao no Haiti, teve grande repercussao, pois alem do componente militar ser liderado por um brasileiro, o pais se engajou de diversas formas, ate emocionalmente como dito pelo Chanceler Celso Amorim. Mas a grande problematica e: o Brasil seria um lider ? De qual forma isso se deu nos anos de 2010 e 2011 quando esteve como membro temporario no Conselho de Seguranca? E por fim, sua legitimidade emana das Missoes de Paz? ABSTRACT  From a brief analysis of its performance in the United Nations Security Council during the 2010-2011 biennium it is intended to examine the legitimacy of the speeches and leadership of the brazilian performance in the Committee and Peacekeeping Operations. Brazil, as an actor who values diplomatic and multilateral means has gained great prominence within the United Nations Organization and in the instruments of maintenance of international security. The mission in Haiti, MINUSTAH, had great repercussions because besides the military component being led by a brazilian, Brazil was engaged in various forms, even emotionally as said by Chancellor Celso Amorim. But the major problem is: would Brazil be a leader? How did this happen in the years 2010 and 2011 when it was a temporary member of the Security Council? And finally, does its legitimacy emanate from the Missions of Peace?
通过对他2010-2011两年期在联合国安全理事会的表现的简要分析,我们打算审查巴西在委员会和和平行动中的发言和领导的合法性。作为一个重视外交和多边方式的行动者,在联合国组织和维护国际安全的文书中获得了极大的重视。联海稳定团是一个在海地的特派团,它产生了巨大的反响,因为除了由一名巴西人领导的军事部门外,该国还以各种方式参与,甚至像塞尔索·阿莫林总理所说的那样情绪激动。但最大的问题是:巴西会成为一个领导者吗?在你担任安全理事会临时成员的2010年和2011年,这种情况是如何发生的?最后,它的合法性是否源于和平使命?摘要通过对其2010-2011两年期在联合国安理会的表现的简要分析,旨在审查巴西在委员会和维持和平行动中的发言和领导能力的合法性。巴西作为一个重视外交和多边手段的行动者,在联合国组织和维护国际安全的文书中获得了极大的重视。海地特派团联海稳定团产生了巨大的影响,因为除了由一名巴西人领导的军事部门外,巴西还以各种形式参与,甚至像塞尔索·阿莫林总理所说的那样情绪激动。但主要问题是:巴西会成为领导者吗?在它担任安全理事会临时成员的2010年和2011年,这种情况是如何发生的?最后,它的合法性是否源于和平使命?
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引用次数: 0
As pressões domésticas pela manutenção dos gastos com defesa pelos Estados Unidos: O caso do V-22 Osprey 美国维持国防开支的国内压力:以V-22鱼鹰为例
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.v25n2.p315-345
Juliano da Silva Cortinhas
RESUMO O artigo analisa a importância do ambiente domestico nas discussoes do orcamento de defesa estadunidense por meio do caso do V-22 Osprey. Durante a gestao de George Bush, o Executivo propos o encerramento do programa por quatro anos seguidos, mas o Congresso impediu o corte. A argumentacao se desenvolve a partir da atuacao dos tres vertices do chamado Triângulo de Ferro (militares, congressistas e empresarios). Apesar de ser um programa ineficiente e que apresentou custos muito mais altos do que inicialmente previsto, esse conjunto de atores garantiu a sobrevivencia do Osprey devido a interesses especificos (politicos ou economicos) que possuiam em relacao ao programa. A discussao pretende demonstrar que as visoes que associam as decisoes estrategicas dos EUA somente ao ambiente internacional sao incompletas. O caso do V-22 e paradigmatico, mas nao isolado. A cada ano, diversos programas de armamentos se beneficiam de sua forca politica domestica para se manterem ativos. Desse modo, o artigo contribui para aprofundar o conhecimento sobre como interesses especificos comprometem decisoes estrategicas naquele pais.  ABSTRACT The article analyzes the importance of the domestic environment in the American defense budget discussions through the V-22 Osprey case. During George Bush’s administration, the executive proposed closing the program for four straight years, but Congress prevented the cut. The argument is based on the analysis of the performance of the three vertices of the so-called Iron Triangle (military, congressmen and businessmen). Despite being an inefficient program that had much higher costs than initially anticipated, these actors ensured the Osprey’s survival because of the specific interests (political or economic) they had over the program. The discussion is intended to demonstrate that the views that associate US strategic decisions exclusively with the international environment are incomplete. The case of the V-22 is paradigmatic, but not isolated. Each year, various weapons’ programs benefit from their domestic political strength to remain active. Thus, the article contributes to the understanding of how specific interests compromise strategic decisions in that country.
摘要本文以V-22鱼鹰为例,分析了国内环境在美国国防预算讨论中的重要性。在乔治·布什执政期间,行政部门提议连续四年关闭该项目,但国会阻止了削减。这个论点是从所谓的铁三角的三个方面(军队、国会议员和商人)的行动发展而来的。尽管这是一个效率低下的项目,而且成本比最初预期的要高得多,但由于与该项目相关的特定利益(政治或经济),这组参与者确保了鱼鹰的生存。讨论的目的是表明,仅将美国的战略决策与国际环境联系起来的观点是不完整的。V-22的案例是典型的,但不是孤立的。每年,各种武器计划都受益于其国内政治力量,以保持活跃。因此,本文有助于加深对特定利益如何影响该国战略决策的认识。这篇文章通过V-22“鹰”案分析了国内环境在美国国防预算讨论中的重要性。在乔治·布什政府期间,行政部门提议将该项目直接关闭四年,但国会阻止了削减。这一论点是基于对所谓铁三角的三个方面(军人、国会议员和商人)的表现的分析。我被一个inefficient项目,有多高的成本比initially anticipated,这些演员ensured鱼鹰’的生存,因为特定的政治或经济利益()他们的计划。讨论的目的是要表明,把美国的战略决策完全同国际环境联系起来的观点是不完整的。-22 V是paradigmatic的案例,而不是孤立的。每一年,各种武器’项目效益从美国国内政治力量保持活跃。因此,本文有助于理解具体利益如何影响该国的战略决策。
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引用次数: 0
A Delimitação de Fronteiras Marítimas e a Produção “Offshore”: Cooperação e Conflito entre Israel e o Líbano 海上边界划定和海上生产:以色列和黎巴嫩之间的合作与冲突
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.v25n2.p346-380
C. Piñon, Marcelo de Souza Barbosa
RESUMO  A descoberta de jazidas de petroleo e gas no Mediterrâneo Oriental, mais precisamente na Bacia do Levante, suscitou o interesse de Israel e do Libano como uma forma de atingirem a autossuficiencia energetica e auferirem os ganhos economicos que a atividade “offshore” tem o potencial de prover. Contudo, os conflitos politicos e territoriais entre os dois paises sao ainda mais acirrados pela disputa por areas maritimas de exploracao desse importante ativo energetico. Nesse aspecto, destaca-se a necessidade de se definir a fronteira maritima entre Israel e o Libano como forma de possibilitar a plena exploracao dos ativos energeticos por ambos os paises. Para tal, o estudo busca identificar os atores regionais e internacionais que de alguma forma influenciam na problematica, os interesses e obstaculos que permeiam a producao de petroleo e gas na Bacia do Levante e quais os instrumentos legais que podem vir a viabilizar uma cooperacao, no sentido de se obter a delimitacao da citada fronteira maritima, criando assim condicoes minimas de seguranca para a producao “offshore” por parte dos dois paises em conflito. ABSTRACT The findings of oil and gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, more specifically in the Levantine Basis, has aroused Israel and Lebanon concerns regarding the possibility of these energy sources provide both their energy self-sufficiency and the profitable earns which this economic activity has the potential to provide to. However, the political and territorial conflicts between those countries have been still more raised by the dispute of maritime areas implied in the exploitation of this important energetic asset. In this matter, the definition of maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon must be highlighted as a way to allow the full offshore exploitation by both countries. For this purpose, this article aims to identify regional and international actors which have the skills to interfere in this issue, the interests and obstacles related to Levantine Basis oil and gas production and the legal framework that can improve cooperation in order to get the maritime border delimitation. This way, it will be possible to create a security environment to allow full offshore exploitation by the contenders.
在地中海东部,更确切地说,在黎凡特盆地发现的石油和天然气矿藏引起了以色列和黎巴嫩的兴趣,作为实现能源自给和获得海上活动可能提供的经济收益的一种方式。然而,两国之间的政治和领土冲突因开发这一重要能源资产的海域争端而加剧。在这方面,有必要确定以色列和黎巴嫩之间的海上边界,以使两国能够充分开发能源资产。方面,研究识别搜索国际和地区的演员,在某种程度上影响着整个的利益问题和障碍在塔里木石油和天然气生产,哪些工具的法律可以让一个合作,以取得delimitacao的海上边界,创造条件最低安全生产“离岸”矛盾的两个国家。招式的发现石油和天然气储备的地中海东部,more specifically黎凡特的基础已经aroused以色列和黎巴嫩问题关于这些可能性的能量来源提供两个他们自我-sufficiency和profitable earns,这种经济活动提供的潜力。然而,这一重要能源资产的开发所涉及的海域争端进一步加剧了两国之间的政治和领土冲突。在这方面,必须强调以色列和黎巴嫩之间海上边界的定义,以使两国能够充分进行海上开采。为此目的,本文旨在确定有能力干预这一问题的区域和国际行为者、与黎凡特基石油和天然气生产有关的利益和障碍,以及为实现海洋边界划定而加强合作的法律框架。这样,就有可能创造一个安全的环境,使各当事方能够充分开展海上作业。
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引用次数: 0
La Contribución Del Opanal Al Desarme Nuclear En Latinoamérica: Un Análisis De La Efectividad Del Régimen De Tlatelolco Y de la Gobernanza Regional sobre la no Proliferación Nuclear 拉加禁核组织对拉丁美洲核裁军的贡献:分析特拉特洛尔科制度和区域治理在核不扩散方面的有效性
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.v25n2.p292-314
Elias David Morales Martinez
RESUMEN  En el ano 2017 se completaron 50 anos del Tratado de Tlatelolco que establecio la primera Zona Libre de Armas Nucleares del mundo al proscribir este armamento en America Latina y el Caribe. Como instrumento tecnico y politico para verificar la implementacion de los acuerdos fue creado el Organismo para la Proscripcion de Armas Nucleares – OPANAL. Sin embargo, muchas de las atribuciones fueron transferidas a la Agencia Internacional de Energia Atomica – AIEA. En el presente trabajo se analiza la contribucion del OPANAL al desarme nuclear, teniendo en cuenta sus aciertos y fragilidades. Este analisis utilizara los postulados teoricos de Bobbio (2003) sobre el Pacifismo Activo Instrumental y de Axerold e Keohone (1986) las dimensiones de la efectividad de regimenes internacionales. ABSTRACT 50 years of the Treaty of Tlatelolco were completed in 2017, which established the first Nuclear Weapons Free Zone of the world not allowing this armament in Latin America and the Caribbean. As a technical and political instrument to verify the implementation of the agreements was created the Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons - OPANAL. However, many of the responsabilities were transferred to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This paper analyzes the contribution of OPANAL to nuclear disarmament, taking into account its successes and weaknesses. This analysis will use the theoretical postulates of Bobbio (2003) on the Instrumental Active Pacifism and Axerold and Keohone (1986) about the dimensions of the effectiveness of international regimes.
摘要2017年,《特拉特洛尔科条约》通过在拉丁美洲和加勒比禁止核武器,建立了世界上第一个无核武器区,结束了50年。禁止核武器组织是核查协定执行情况的技术和政治工具。然而,许多权力已移交给国际原子能机构。考虑到拉加禁核组织的成功和脆弱性,本文分析了拉加禁核组织对核裁军的贡献。这一分析将使用Bobbio(2003年)关于工具性积极和平主义的理论假设,以及Axerold和Keohone(1986年)关于国际制度有效性维度的理论假设。《特拉特洛尔科条约》于2017年完成了50年,该条约建立了世界上第一个不允许在拉丁美洲和加勒比使用这种武器的无核武器区。禁止核武器机构-拉加禁核组织是核查协定执行情况的技术和政治工具。然而,许多责任已移交给国际原子能机构。本文分析了拉加禁核组织对核裁军的贡献,同时考虑到其成功和弱点。这一分析将使用Bobbio(2003年)关于工具性活跃和平主义的理论假设,以及Axerold和Keohone(1986年)关于国际制度有效性维度的理论假设。
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引用次数: 0
China´S International Projection Since 2008: The new Core-Periphery relations and The belt and Road Initiative Through Foreign Direct Investment 2008年以来中国的国际预测:新的核心-周边关系和通过外国直接投资的“一带一路”倡议倡议
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.v25n2.p416-448
Bruno Hendler
ABSTRACT  This paper´s central hypothesis is that China´s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) implies the construction of new networks in the international division of labor that insert the partner countries in a peripheral condition towards China. Although it is clear that the ambitious project of Eurasia´s integration, announced by Xi Jinping in 2013 and formalized in 2017, is by itself a novelty of structural impacts in the international system, it is also a product of deep transformations within China since the early 2000s and, to understand its current impacts, it is crucial to look back at the roots of China’s foreign insertion in the previous decade. This paper is divided into the following sections: i) a brief discussion of the three major domestic transformations in China since the 2000s; ii) China’s economic statecraft overseas as a byproduct of strategic and economic forces; iii) the symbolic-institutional dimension of that economic statecraft; iv) a case study of Chinese projection in Southeast (SE) Asia divided in two parts, which correspond to the two waves of outward foreign direct investments (OFDI); and v) final considerations. RESUMO A hipotese central deste artigo e que a iniciativa chinesa da Nova Rota da Seda (BRI, em ingles) implica a construcao de novas redes na divisao internacional do trabalho que inserem os paises parceiros em uma condicao periferica em relacao a China. Embora esteja claro que o ambicioso projeto de integracao da Eurasia, anunciado por Xi Jinping em 2013 e formalizado em 2017, e por si so uma novidade de impactos estruturais no sistema internacional, a BRI e tambem um produto de profundas transformacoes domesticas da China desde o inicio dos anos 2000 e, para entender seus impactos atuais, e crucial olhar para as raizes da insercao internacional chinesa. Este artigo esta dividido nas seguintes secoes: i) uma breve discussao das tres principais transformacoes internas na China desde os anos 2000; ii) o estatismo economico chines no exterior como subproduto de forcas estrategicas e economicas; iii) a dimensao simbolico-institucional deste estatismo economico; iv) um estudo de caso da projecao chinesa no Sudeste (SE) da Asia dividido em duas partes, que correspondem as duas ondas de investimentos externos diretos (IED); e v) consideracoes finais
本文的核心假设是,中国的“一带一路”倡议意味着在国际分工中构建新的网络,使伙伴国家对中国处于边缘状态。本文分为以下几个部分:i)简要讨论了2000年以来中国国内的三大转型;ii)作为战略和经济力量副产品的中国海外经济治国方略;Iii)经济治国方略的象征-制度维度;中国在东南亚投资的案例研究分为两部分,分别对应两波对外直接投资(OFDI);v)最后的考虑。“一带一路”(BRI,简称“一带一路”)是指建设“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”、“一带一路”。Este artigo esta dividido nas seguintes secoes: 1)对2000年以来中国经济内部变革的主要原则进行简要讨论;(2)对中国经济进行统计,认为中国经济没有外部经济子产品来形成战略经济力量;(三)象征-制度-经济统计的一个维度;(四)中国南方(SE)和亚洲(亚洲)分部的合作伙伴、合作伙伴、投资伙伴和外部董事(IED)的合作伙伴;考虑最终结果
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引用次数: 0
A Inserção Internacional do Brasil segundo Os Think Tanks dos Estados Unidos, da Alemanha e da França (2003-2014) 根据美国、德国和法国的智囊团,巴西的国际插入(2003-2014)
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.v25n2.p381-415
Luciana Wietchikoski, Fernando Preusser de Mattos, A. M. França
RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo e identificar e analisar quais foram as visoes de onze importantes think tanks especializados em temas de defesa e seguranca da Alemanha, dos Estados Unidos e da Franca em relacao a insercao internacional do Brasil entre os anos de 2003 e 2014. Para tanto, iniciamos o trabalhodescrevendoascircunstânciasquelevaramaspotenciastradicionais a intensificarem seu interesse pelo Brasil no recorte temporal indicado. Em seguida, demonstramos a importância da analise da producao discursiva dos think tanks para se identificarem as opcoes de acao politica presentes no horizonte de possibilidades dos tomadores de decisao nos Estados Unidos, na Alemanha e na Franca. Discutimos, entao, o desenho de pesquisa adotado, apresentando a fundamentacao teorica do estudo, os criterios de selecao das organizacoes e do corpus textual analisado e o metodo de analise empregado. Por fim sao apresentados e discutidos os resultados da pesquisa, divididos nos subtopicos a) relacoes bilaterais; b) politica regional; e c) politicas de defesa e seguranca internacional. A secao de consideracoes finais encerra o artigo, reafirmando as contribuicoes do estudo e apontando possibilidades de pesquisas futuras para a ainda incipiente literatura sobre think tanks no Brasil. ABSTRACT  The aim of the present article is to identify and analyze the views of eleven key defense and security policy think tanks from the United States of America, Germany and France toward Brazil’s foreign policy between 2003 and 2014. To this end, we begin by describing the circumstances within which traditional powers intensified their interest in Brazil. Next, we demonstrate the importance of analyzing think tanks’ discursive production in order to identify policy options that circulate among decision-makers in the United States, Germany and France. We then discuss the research design adopted, presenting the theoretical foundation of the study as well as data collection and analysis processes. Finally, the results of our research are presented and discussed. The results were divided into three subtopics: a) bilateral relations; b) regional policy; and c) defense and international security policies. In the final remarks, we reaffirm the contributions of the study and discuss future avenues of research that might contribute with the still incipient scholarly debate on think tanks in Brazil.
本文的目的是确定和分析德国、美国和法国11个专门研究国防和安全问题的重要智库对2003年至2014年巴西的国际介入的看法。为此,我们开始研究传统潜力,以在规定的时间内加强他们对巴西的兴趣。接下来,我们展示了分析智库的话语生产的重要性,以确定美国、德国和法国决策者的可能性范围内的政治行动选项。然后,我们讨论了所采用的研究设计,介绍了研究的理论基础、组织和文本语料库的选择标准以及所采用的分析方法。最后,对研究结果进行了介绍和讨论,分为a)双边关系;(b) 区域政策;(c) 国际防务和安全政策。最后的考虑部分总结了这篇文章,重申了这项研究的贡献,并指出了未来研究巴西智库的可能性。摘要本文的目的是识别和分析美国、德国和法国的11个主要国防和安全政策智库在2003年至2014年间对巴西外交政策的看法。为此,我们首先描述传统大国加强对巴西兴趣的情况。接下来,我们展示了分析智库话语产出的重要性,以确定在美国、德国和法国决策者中流传的政策选择。然后,我们讨论了所采用的研究设计,介绍了研究的理论基础以及数据收集和分析过程。最后,介绍并讨论了我们的研究结果。研究结果分为三个子主题:(a)双边关系;(b) 区域政策;以及c)国防和国际安全政策。在最后发言中,我们重申了这项研究的贡献,并讨论了未来的研究途径,这些途径可能有助于巴西仍处于起步阶段的关于智库的学术辩论。
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引用次数: 0
Vulnerabilidade Estrutural da Venezuela e os Impactos ao Entorno Estratégico Sul-Americano 委内瑞拉的结构性脆弱性及其对南美战略环境的影响
Pub Date : 2019-06-05 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.V25N1.P197-225
Fernanda Delgado de Jesus, João Victor Rodrigues Cardoso
RESUMO O trabalho analisa geopoliticamente como a vulnerabilidade venezuelana impacta a estabilidade da America do Sul, onde o Brasil desempenha relativo protagonismo. A luz da Teoria do Complexo Regional de Seguranca (TCRS), parte-se da hipotese de que tal vulnerabilidade afeta o espaco sul-americano, pois a seguranca dos atores estatais seria interdependente em um complexo. De um lado, a vulnerabilidade e explicada mediante a dimensao estrutural das reservas de hidrocarbonetos. Por outro, os impactos a estabilidade sul-americana tangenciam o protagonismo brasileiro por meio dos seguintes vetores: geopolitica da energia, comercial-financeiro, fluxo migratorio e integracao regional. Tal modelo analitico verifica que a paralisia de mecanismos regionais a crise venezuelana segue a logica de construcao de padroes de amizade/inimizade, baseados na clausula democratica que sustenta os processos de integracao regional. A formacao desses padroes, segundo a TCRS, se alinha via mecanismo de penetracao a potencias externas, harmonizando-se a seguranca regional e a global. A criacao do Grupo de Lima e o esvaziamento dos organismos regionais, que, com efeito, isolam a crise venezuelana e desafiam o protagonismo do Brasil, sao fenomenos que caracterizam os padroes de amizade/inimizade em curso, alinhados as identidades e interesses promovidos pela potencia externa hegemonica e a ordem internacional por ela protegida. ABSTRACT The paper analyses geopolitically how the Venezuelan vulnerability impacts the stability in South America, where Brazil is a relative protagonist. In the light of the Theory of Security Regional Complex (TSRC), it starts from the hypothesis that such vulnerability affects the South American space, because states’ security would be interdependent in a Complex. On one side, the vulnerability is explained through the structural dimension of hydrocarbons reserves. On the other, the impacts to South American stability touch the Brazilian protagonism through the following vectors: geopolitics of energy, commercial-financial, migratory flow and regional integration. Such analytical model verifies that the paralysis of regional mechanisms to Venezuelan crisis follows the logics of building amity/enmity patterns, based on democratic clause which underpins the regional integration processes. The formation of these patterns, according to the TSRC, aligns through the mechanisms of penetration with foreign powers, conciliating regional and global security. The establishment of Lima Group and the emptying of regional organisms which isolate the Venezuelan crisis and challenges the protagonism of Brazil are phenomena which characterize the ongoing amity/enmity patterns, aligned with the identities and interests boosted by hegemonic foreign power and its protected international order.
本文从地缘政治的角度分析了委内瑞拉的脆弱性如何影响南美的稳定,而巴西在南美洲扮演着相对的角色。根据区域安全综合体理论,假设这种脆弱性会影响南美空间,因为国家行为者的安全在一个综合体中是相互依存的。一方面,脆弱性可以用油气储量的结构维度来解释。另一方面,对南美稳定的影响通过以下向量切线巴西的角色:能源地缘政治、商业和金融、移民流动和区域一体化。该分析模型验证了区域机制的瘫痪,委内瑞拉危机遵循了建立友谊/敌意模式的逻辑,基于支持区域一体化进程的民主条款。根据TCRS的说法,这些模式的形成是通过渗透机制与外部力量相一致的,协调了地区和全球安全。创建文件组和空的区域组织,它们隔离,实际上,危机在委内瑞拉和巴西的挑战的台词,是标准的现象持续的友谊/敌意,金砖国家身份和利益获得外国技术hegemonica和国际秩序的保护她。本文从地缘政治角度分析了委内瑞拉的脆弱性如何影响南美洲的稳定,巴西是南美洲的相对主角。根据区域安全综合体理论(TSRC),它从这样一种脆弱性影响南美洲空间的假设开始,因为各国的安全在一个综合体中是相互依赖的。一方面,脆弱性是通过储层的结构维度来解释的。另一方面,对南美稳定的影响通过以下途径影响巴西的主导地位:能源地缘政治、商业金融、移民流动和区域一体化。这种分析模型证实,区域机制对委内瑞拉危机的瘫痪符合建立友好/包容模式的逻辑,这种模式是建立在区域一体化进程基础上的民主条款基础上的。根据《反弹道导弹条约》,这些模式的形成符合与外国势力渗透、协调区域和全球安全的机制。利马集团的建立和孤立委内瑞拉危机和挑战巴西领导地位的区域机构的消失是一种现象,其特点是持续的友好/友好模式,与霸权外国势力及其受保护的国际秩序所促进的特性和利益相一致。
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引用次数: 0
O Encontro da Guerra Cibernética com as Guerras Eletrônica e Cinética no Âmbito do Poder Marítimo 海上力量领域的网络战争与电子战争和动力战争的交汇
Pub Date : 2019-06-05 DOI: 10.21544/1809-3191.V25N1.P89-128
N. N. Almeida, R. C. S. Machado, Alan Oliveira de Sá
RESUMO A busca por melhores capacidades operacionais e gerenciais no Poder Maritimo tem motivado o aumento do uso de sistemas hibridos, onde componentes ciberneticos interagem com plantas fisicas e com sensores/dispositivos que exploram o espectro eletromagnetico. Entretanto, ao mesmo tempo em que esta integracao traz vantagens, ela tambem expoe tais sistemas a novas ameacas, resultantes do encontro da guerra cibernetica com as guerras eletronica e cinetica. O presente artigo analisa como estas novas ameacas podem afetar o Poder Maritimo, caracterizando, por meio de exemplos, seus possiveis alvos. Para dar suporte a esta discussao, propoe-se uma taxonomia que abarca novas classes de ataque que exploram os dominios cibernetico, eletronico e cinetico. A analise aponta para a necessidade de politicas capazes de promover a seguranca dos sistemas ciberneticos do Poder Maritimo. Neste vies, sao discutidas politicas de qualificacao de pessoal e de homologacao e certificacao de produtos ciberneticos, ambas com o potencial de contribuir de forma abrangente para a seguranca do Poder Maritimo. ABSTRACT The search for better operational and management capacities in the Sea Power has motivated the increase of the use of hybrid systems, where cybernetic components interact with physical plants and with sensors/devices that explore the electromagnetic spectrum. However, at the same time as this integration brings benefits, it also exposes such systems to new threats that result from the meeting of cyber warfare with the electronic and kinetic warfares. The present paper analyzes how these new threats can affect the Sea Power, characterizing, through examples, their possible targets. To support this discussion, it is proposed a taxonomy that encompasses new classes of attack that exploit the cybernetic, electronic, and kinetic domains. The analysis indicates the need for policies capable of promoting the cybersecurity of the Sea Power. In this sense, policies regarding personnel training and certification of cyber products are discussed, both with the potential to contribute comprehensively to the security of the Sea Power
为了在海事力量中寻求更好的运营和管理能力,混合系统的使用越来越多,在混合系统中,控制论组件与物理植物和探索电磁频谱的传感器/设备相互作用。然而,在这种集成带来优势的同时,它也使这些系统面临控制论战争与电子战和动能战相遇所带来的新威胁。本文分析了这些新的威胁如何影响海洋大国,并通过例子描述了它们可能的目标。为了支持这一讨论,我们提出了一个分类法,其中包括探索控制论、电子和动力学领域的新攻击类别。分析指出,需要制定能够促进海洋大国控制论系统安全的政策。在这种偏见中,讨论了人员资格政策和控制论产品认证和认证政策,这两种政策都有可能为海事国的安全做出全面贡献。摘要为了在海洋力量中寻求更好的运营和管理能力,混合系统的使用越来越多,在混合系统中,控制论组件与物理植物和探索电磁频谱的传感器/设备相互作用。然而,在这种集成带来好处的同时,它也使这些系统面临网络战与电子战和动能战相结合所带来的新威胁。本文分析了这些新的威胁如何影响海权,并通过实例描述了它们可能的目标。为了支持这一讨论,提出了一种遇到利用控制论、电子和动力学领域的新攻击类别的分类法。分析表明,需要制定能够促进海洋大国网络安全的政策。从这个意义上讲,讨论了有关人员培训和网络产品认证的政策,这两项政策都有可能为海洋大国的安全做出全面贡献
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引用次数: 2
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Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval
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